Scientific Research Project 1

A proportion of the American public accepts claims made by the pseudoscience, Astrology as scientific facts. This study is aimed to evaluate the correlation between the effects of horoscopes on the public's decision making. I describe an activity that provides an example of a pseudoscientific claim and the study of select participants in groups to experimentally test predictions and decision making based on horoscopes. A study conducted using 20 representative participants over the course of 2 days to show how negative vs positive horoscopes impact decision making, testing a hypothesis that if participants are given a positive horoscope they are more likely to then choose to buy a more expensive lottery ticket over a less expensive one. Support is found for this hypothesis. May, both male and female.

● Originated in Babylon

● Egyptians refined it

● Greeks shaped it into modern Astrology

● Greeks coined the term “astrology”

● Egyptian mathematician, astrologer and astronomer, Ptolemy introduced the planets, Houses and signs of the zodiac.

(time.com) (ptolemy)

An image of the sun surrounded by a calendar showing seasons and the symbols of the zodiac that appear on the title page of an 1814 almanac written by Nathanael Low, M.D., and published by Munroe and Francis in Boston, Mass.

● Astrology - belief that there is a relationship between astronomical phenomena and actual physical events or descriptions of personality traits in humans.

● Astrologists study the connections between celestial bodies. ● As the Earth rotates, the sun, the moon and planets are on an ecliptic, a set path

through the sky. ● The list of 12 constellations they pass through are known as the stars of the

zodiac.

Zodiac Constellations (Horoscope Signs): Aries, Taurus, Gemini, Cancer, Leo, Virgo, Libra, Scorpio, Sagittarius, Capricorn, Aquarius and Pisces.

Each horoscope sign is named for a constellation it was passing through.

(constellations) (astrologyandscience)

● 25% of Americans accept certain claims that astrology (horoscopes) are scientific facts.

● Explanations for this could be ○ Barnum Effect - people accept vague and general characterizations

of themselves as accurate information.

One reason humans could have a belief in this pseudoscience is psychological. They look for reason or faith in something, but these are not scientific methods to base real-life decisions on. Some people may believe because they don’t feel in control of their life and look to a illusory sense of control from horoscopes.

(Barnum-Effect) (Clobert)

PANAS This scale consists of a number of words that describe different feelings and emotions. It is used to measure the positive and negative affect. Participants read each item and mark the appropriate answer, indicating their general feeling at the moment. Some ratings are: interested, disinterested, excited, upset, scared, hostile, proud, enthusiastic, irritable, inspired, afraid.

Scoring is based on a 5-point scale: ranging relatively from: Very Slightly/Not at All - A Little - Moderately - Quite a Bit - Extremely

This process takes about 5-10 minutes (twice a day), total of 20 minutes maximum per day.

(Waxman)

“What Makes Some People Think Astrology is Scientific” by Nick Allum

● Goal: to examine whether the suffix “ology” means that people should tend to rate “astrology” as more scientific than “horoscope”

● Sample: 1,000 participants in 25 EU states = 25,000 people ○ 80% Christian

● Measurement: ○ Special Eurobarometer 224 and 225 surveys

■ European, Science and Technology ■ Social Values, Science and Technology

● Survey modules in part with face-to-face interviews

● Groups: This was a observational survey with no control group ● Conclusion:

○ 57% of Europeans think that horoscopes are “not at all scientific”

○ 24% of Europeans think that astrology is “not at all scientific” ○ Astrology is viewed as greatly more scientifically credible

than horoscopes ○ Expectation of hypothesis met

Elsevier “Good day for Leos: Horoscope's influence on perception, cognitive performances, and creativity” by Magali Clobert, Patty Van Cappellen, Marianne Bourdon, Adam B. Cohen

Goal: Three experimental studies to conclude whose astrological forecasts actually influence cognitions and daily life experiences.

The impact of daily horoscopes on interpretation of: ● Experiment 1: ambiguous situations and emotions ● Experiment 2: cognitive performance ● Experiment 3: creativity

● Experiment 1: the impact of horoscope reading on perception and emotion. ○ Reading and summarizing their daily horoscopes (positive vs

negative) and interpret ambiguous situations as either positive or negative, also completed an emotion scale.

○ Personality, locus of control and belief in astrology were measured.

Conclusion: The exposure to positive versus negative horoscopes influenced more people who believed more strongly in astrology than those who did not. “The effects of reading horoscopes seems then to apply to the entire sample even if people who strongly believe in astrology are more influenced by horoscopes in the emotional domain” (Clobert).

Participants were screened for a study under the assumption that it was a study investigating the ability to process written information and to summarize its contents ● 87% Women ● From: 96% Belgium; 4% from France, Canada and Luxemburg ● Self-identified as: Catholic (44%), atheist (35%), other (6%) ● Mean age was 20.6

● Summarize information ● Likert scale rating for visual interpretations ● PANAS to measure positive and negative emotionality ● Ten Item Personality Inventory for personality traits ● Locus of Control using the Levenson’s 24-item scale ● One-way analysis of variance (ANOVA) for belief in astrology

Article 1: ● Observational study

○ surveys and face to face interviews ● Not experimental

Article 2: ● Confounding feelings prior to experiment ● Didn’t control the time of day ● Not Double Blind: lab tech knew who was in what group ● Subject Bias:

○ believed it was worth course credits ○ 85% women and 15% men

● Motivation: To find testable methods to explain why people believe in astrology ○ Horoscopes could potentially aid in forming expectations and influence

actual behaviors and decisions. ○ Astrology has been a modern pseudoscience for many years and

disproving it’s validity is important to categorize it into entertainment and not scientific information in an attempt to help the public not rely on it to base decisions in the natural world.

Article 2 indicates, “Future research should unpack the mechanisms of this effect and explore additional pathways through which reading horoscopes may indirectly influence people”

Clobert)

This study discusses how horoscopes influence perceptions and emotions and I am going to expand on that based on how horoscopes influence decision making.

Changes to be made: ● Representative sample of equal men and women ● Screen participants before and after PANAS to measure positive and negative

emotionality ● Constant variable: time of day ● Double Blind

I am going to look at how positive/negative horoscopes influence decisions.

Is there a positive correlation between negative vs positive horoscopes and how that affects a person’s buying decisions?

If participants are given a positive horoscope they are more likely to then choose to buy a more expensive lottery ticket over a less expensive one.

● Main manipulated variable: Type of horoscope: Values: positive and negative horoscope

● Dependent variable: Price options ○ Two options for lottery ticket:

■ Cost: $5.00 or $20.00 ■ No payout statistical information, only cost ■ They are given the option to pick one ticket

● Confounding variable: ○ Limitations within sample group, using the same people for more

multiple days there is a chance they can figure out the motivation of the horoscopes.

○ Uncontrollable situation that could cause the participant to select the higher price vs the lower price ticket, besides the horoscope.

How to remove these variables: ● There will only be two days of testing to reduce the chance of subject

identification. ● Removing certain professions from the groups is necessary, certain

professions (biology teacher) will like the know the purpose of this experiment.

● Use the PANAS to measure positive and negative emotionality before and at the end of each day.

● Ask whether participants purchase lottery tickets and how often; using the Likert scale during the screening process.

● Pre-screen testing questions ○ Profession, age, view on gambling

● Use the PANAS to measure positive and negative emotionality before and at the end of each day.

● No money is given as to remove the financial decision. ● Experiments done at the same time of day (morning) ● Lottery ticket size, color, theme (not value)

Control Group and Experimental Group ● 40 participants

○ 20 men and 20 women ○ Randomly divided among the control and experimental groups, so

that each has the same amount: 10 men and 10 women each. ○ There will be a range of ages, professions and ethnic backgrounds

● Experimental group: 20 participants will have to read their positive horoscopes before presented with the purchase decision.

● Control group: 20 participants will have to read their negative horoscopes and before be presented with the purchase Decision.

● Participants are selected through an intake survey ● Participant requirements:

○ Unbiased on gambling/lottery ○ No professional background in sciences ○ Have ability to complete the intake survey

Informed Consent: ● Written permission will be obtained to participate ● Participants may withdraw from the study for any reason, at

anytime ● Any and all winning from lottery tickets will be the

property of the participant ● All personal data will remain confidential

● Approval by a review or institutional board

● 100 random people will be selected ○ Pre-screen questions including: profession, birth date (to

determine horoscope), standpoint on gambling/lottery; will be administered by the same 3 staff members within 1 week.

○ 20 men will be randomly selected after pre-screen ○ 20 women will be randomly selected after pre-screen

● If selected, the participants will have to sign legal papers acknowledging informed consent.

● After 20 men and 20 women participants are met, they will be randomly divided into two groups: controlled and experimental groups.

● All participants will be administered the PANAS test before and after each day (x2 days)

● Negative horoscopes will be given in the morning to the controlled group and then independently decide which ticket to pick.

● Positive horoscopes will be given in the morning to the experimental group and then independently decide which ticket to pick.

● After each groups have made their decision the PANAS test will be administered again, along with a short answer question on why they chose that ticket.

● The study will be administered to one person at a time, as to reduce influence from other participants.

● Participants are given the horoscope, 5 minutes after they are presented with the decision.

● Experiment will be done in a controlled, monitored room within an empty office building, 1st floor. Neither group will see each other, as well as each participant will not be allowed to interact with one another.

● Any and all winning from lottery tickets will be the property of the participant

● Results will be discussed with participants after the data analysis.

● To reduce sample bias, the number of subjects is representative, participants are equally men and women.

● Participants are randomly equally divided into experimental group and control group by sex.

● To prevent experimenter bias, the experiment will be double-blind ○ The participants won’t know what group they are in

(negative/positive horoscope) ○ We will require that the participants not discuss the ticket choice as

part of the consent form. ● Experimenters that administer the study will not know what type of

horoscope they are giving ● 3 people will administer the PANAS test on participants in control

group and another 3 people will administer for the experimenter Group, consistently for the 2 days.

● The participants will be identified as a random number and the experimenters will not know their identity when analyzing

● To prevent subject bias minimal information will be given to participants. ○ They will be told the goal is to measure the visual (color) effectiveness of

the lottery tickets on purchase ○ They will not be told the independent variable (positive/negative horoscope)

● The intake survey questions on gambling bias will be mixed into other general background questions as to not indicate the true nature of the experiment

● Removing certain professions can cause bias ○ Non-representative sample

● Personal bias toward gambling ○ Personal beliefs of the participants

● Prior emotional impact person ○ happy or satisfied financially

● Data will be collected and analyzed by 3 experiments (x2) to reduce personal errors.

● The instrument used to measure positive and negative emotionality will be PANAS, before and at the end of each day.

● The positive and negative emotionality will be calculated for each participant.

● The mean, median, standard deviation, and mode will be calculated for both groups (controlled and experimental)

● Statistical analysis between populations will be calculated using the mean and standard deviation of the groups to determine if they are statistically different.

● The latest version of statistical package for social sciences (SPSS) will be used.

● If the experimental group decides to buy the more expensive ticket and has a higher PANAS score than the control group, then the hypothesis is true.

● If the decisions in the experimental group are the same as the control group, then the hypothesis is false.

● If the experimental group decided to buy the less expensive ticket and has a lower PANAS score than the control group, then the hypothesis is false.

● This experimental study will be replicated once more with a different set of representative samples.

● All notes and research will be posted for other researchers to replicate this experimental study.

1. Allum, Nick. “What Makes Some People Think Astrology is Scientific?” Sage 33 (3) (2011): 341-367. Print 2. Astrology and Science. Wikipedia. 8 June 2020. Web. 8 June 2020.

<https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Astrology_and_science> 3. Clobert, Magali; Cappellen, Patty Van; Bourdon, Marianne; and Cohen, Adam B. “Good day for Leos:

Horoscope’s influence on perception, cognitive performance and creativity.” Elsevier (2016): 348-366. Print 4. Jones, Alexander Raymond. “Ptolemy.” Encyclopaedia Britannica, 7 November 2019. Web. 7 June 2020.

<https://www.britannica.com/biography/Ptolemy> 5. Reed, Nola Taylor. “Constellations: The Zodiac Constellation Names.” Space, 9, October 2018. Web.

7 June 2020. <https://www.space.com/15722-constellations.html> 6. Vohs, Kathleen D. “Barnum Effect.” Encyclopaedia Britannica, 1 August 2016. Web.

7 June 2020. <https://www.britannica.com/science/Barnum-Effect> 7. Watson, D., Clark, L. A., Tellegen, A. (1988). Development and validation of brief measures of

positive and negative affect: The PANAS scales. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, (54), 1063-1070. <https://www.brandeis.edu/roybal/docs/PANAS-GEN_website_PDF.pdf>

8. Waxman, Olivia B. “Where Do Zodiac Signs Come From? Here’s the True History Behind Your Horoscope.” Time, 21 June 2018. Web. 8 June 2020. <https://time.com/5315377/are-zodiac-signs-real-astrology-history/>