5 questions

Rulers, Religion & Riches Why the West Got Rich and the

Middle East Did Not

Jared Rubin Chapman University

29 November 2018

Rulers, Religion & Riches Why the West Got Rich and the

Middle East Did Not

“The greatest book I have ever read.”

– my father

Rulers, Religion & Riches Why the West Got Rich and the

Middle East Did Not

“The greatest book I have ever read.” – my father

Rulers, Religion & Riches Why the West Got Rich and the

Middle East Did Not

“It needs more pictures.” – Nadia Rubin, age 6

The Puzzle

I We know that the Middle East was at one point far ahead of Western Europe (say, around 800 or 1000)

I This point is relatively undisputed

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20 Most Populous Cities in Western Eurasia, 800 C.E.

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The Puzzle

I We also know that the modern economy was born in northwestern Europe

I At some point a reversal of fortunes occurred between the two regions

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20 Most Populous Cities in Western Eurasia, 1300 C.E.

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20 Most Populous Cities in Western Eurasia, 1800 C.E.

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Urban Center of Gravity, Europe and MENA, 800-1800

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Urban Center of Gravity, Europe and MENA, 800-1800

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The Goal of the Book

I What role did religion play, if any, in the reversal of fortunes?

I I build a framework for understanding the role that religious legitimacy plays in political economy outcomes

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The Goal of the Book

I What role did religion play, if any, in the reversal of fortunes?

I I build a framework for understanding the role that religious legitimacy plays in political economy outcomes

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The Framework in One Slide

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The Framework in One Slide

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The Framework in One Slide

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The Framework in One Slide

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The Framework in One Slide

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The Framework in One Slide

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Applying the Framework: The Spread of Printing

Movable Type Printing Press

I Invented by Gutenberg in 1450 (in Mainz, Germany)

I By 1480, over 110 presses in most major European cities

I 8 million books printed by 1500

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Applying the Framework: The Spread of Printing

Movable Type Printing Press

I Invented by Gutenberg in 1450 (in Mainz, Germany)

I By 1480, over 110 presses in most major European cities

I 8 million books printed by 1500

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Print Cities in Europe by 1500

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Few Print Restrictions in Europe

Catholic Indulgence, 1521

I The Church accepted the press (printed indulgences, bulls) but censored heretical books

I No restrictions lasted long, printing quickly permitted practically everywhere

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Printing Press in the Ottoman Empire

I But the press did not spread so fast elsewhere

I Famous case of failure of technology diffusion: stifling of the printing press in the Ottoman Empire

Ottoman Sultan Bayezid II

The press was eventually permitted in the 18th century!

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Printing Press in the Ottoman Empire

I The movable type printing press was known to the Ottomans by the 1480s

I In 1485, Sultan Bayezid II issued an edict banning printing in Arabic characters

Ottoman Sultan Bayezid II

The press was eventually permitted in the 18th century!

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Printing Press in the Ottoman Empire

I The movable type printing press was known to the Ottomans by the 1480s

I In 1485, Sultan Bayezid II issued an edict banning printing in Arabic characters

Ottoman Sultan Bayezid II

The press was eventually permitted in the 18th century!

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Explanation for the Ottoman Failure to Adopt the Press?

Book in Arabic printed in Rome, 1631

Adoption of the press was not delayed because of difficulty of printing in Arabic

I 1514: Pope Julius II had a book printed in Arabic on Christian prayer

I 1530: A version of the Qur’an was printed in Venice

Cui bono?

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Explanation for the Ottoman Failure to Adopt the Press?

Book in Arabic printed in Rome, 1631

I Numerous minority presses permitted in the Ottoman Empire, as long they did not print in Arabic

I Why would sultans only be concerned with printing in Arabic?

Cui bono?

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Explanation for the Ottoman Failure to Adopt the Press?

Book in Arabic printed in Rome, 1631

I Numerous minority presses permitted in the Ottoman Empire, as long they did not print in Arabic

I Why would sultans only be concerned with printing in Arabic?

Cui bono?

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Explanation for the Ottoman Failure to Adopt the Press?

Book in Arabic printed in Rome, 1631

I Numerous minority presses permitted in the Ottoman Empire, as long they did not print in Arabic

I Why would sultans only be concerned with printing in Arabic?

Cui bono?

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Cui Bono?

Ijaza certifying competency in calligraphy, 1791

Religious Authorities

I Benefited immensely from the suppression of printing

I Had monopoly on the transmission of knowledge

I Passed down (interpretations of) the Qur’an orally

I Transmission in person (permission to make ijaza)

Why would the sultan suppress such an obviously beneficial technology for the sake of religious authorities?

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Cui Bono?

Ijaza certifying competency in calligraphy, 1791

Religious Authorities

I Benefited immensely from the suppression of printing

I Had monopoly on the transmission of knowledge

I Passed down (interpretations of) the Qur’an orally

I Transmission in person (permission to make ijaza)

Why would the sultan suppress such an obviously beneficial technology for the sake of religious authorities?

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Cui Bono?

Ijaza certifying competency in calligraphy, 1791

I The press threatened to disrupt this monopoly: everyone would have access to the written word

I But they had no access to coercive power

Why would the sultan suppress such an obviously beneficial technology for the sake of religious authorities?

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Cui Bono?

Ijaza certifying competency in calligraphy, 1791

I The press threatened to disrupt this monopoly: everyone would have access to the written word

I But they had no access to coercive power

Why would the sultan suppress such an obviously beneficial technology for the sake of religious authorities?

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Cui Bono?

Ijaza certifying competency in calligraphy, 1791

I The press threatened to disrupt this monopoly: everyone would have access to the written word

I But they had no access to coercive power

Why would the sultan suppress such an obviously beneficial technology for the sake of religious authorities?

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Employing the Framework

In the 15th-17th centuries, religious and military authorities were the two key sources of political propagation

Ottoman Sultan riding to Friday prayers

I The Ottomans—being neither Arab nor having a bloodline to Muhammad—were in great need of religious legitimation

I Especially important after Ottomans conquered Constantinople (1453) and Mecca (1517)

Undermining the religious establishment would have undermined the key source of Ottoman legitimacy

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Employing the Framework

In the 15th-17th centuries, religious and military authorities were the two key sources of political propagation

Ottoman Sultan riding to Friday prayers

I The Ottomans—being neither Arab nor having a bloodline to Muhammad—were in great need of religious legitimation

I Especially important after Ottomans conquered Constantinople (1453) and Mecca (1517)

Undermining the religious establishment would have undermined the key source of Ottoman legitimacy

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Employing the Framework

In the 15th-17th centuries, religious and military authorities were the two key sources of political propagation

Ottoman Sultan riding to Friday prayers

I Ottomans widely used ulama to spread word of ”sanctity” of Ottoman rule, say the sultan’s name raised during Friday prayer, give religious justification for actions

Undermining the religious establishment would have undermined the key source of Ottoman legitimacy

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Employing the Framework

In the 15th-17th centuries, religious and military authorities were the two key sources of political propagation

Ottoman Sultan riding to Friday prayers

I Ottomans widely used ulama to spread word of ”sanctity” of Ottoman rule, say the sultan’s name raised during Friday prayer, give religious justification for actions

Undermining the religious establishment would have undermined the key source of Ottoman legitimacy

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Did the Printing Press Matter?

I Did the different European and Ottoman reactions to the press matter? Economically? Politically?

I Within Europe, early print adopters grew (city size) much faster than non-adopters (Dittmar 2011)

I So, there is a direct path through which printing mattered

I Might there be indirect political and economic effects of the printing press, too?

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Did the Printing Press Matter?

I Did the different European and Ottoman reactions to the press matter? Economically? Politically?

I Within Europe, early print adopters grew (city size) much faster than non-adopters (Dittmar 2011)

I So, there is a direct path through which printing mattered

I Might there be indirect political and economic effects of the printing press, too?

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Did the Printing Press Matter?

I Did the different European and Ottoman reactions to the press matter? Economically? Politically?

I Within Europe, early print adopters grew (city size) much faster than non-adopters (Dittmar 2011)

I So, there is a direct path through which printing mattered

I Might there be indirect political and economic effects of the printing press, too?

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Did the Printing Press Matter?

I Did the different European and Ottoman reactions to the press matter? Economically? Politically?

I Within Europe, early print adopters grew (city size) much faster than non-adopters (Dittmar 2011)

I So, there is a direct path through which printing mattered

I Might there be indirect political and economic effects of the printing press, too?

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Did these guys...

enable the success of this guy?

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Did these guys...

enable the success of this guy?

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The Reformation

The Pope as the Antichrist, signing and selling indulgences

The Reformation

I Began in 1517 in Wittenberg when Luther posted his 95 Theses

I Quickly spread into an anti-papal movement

I By 1530, the Reformation spread through many parts of the HRE, Scandinavia, parts of France, Switzerland

I Eventually came to England and the Dutch Republic

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The Reformation

The Pope as the Antichrist, signing and selling indulgences

The Reformation

I Began in 1517 in Wittenberg when Luther posted his 95 Theses

I Quickly spread into an anti-papal movement

I By 1530, the Reformation spread through many parts of the HRE, Scandinavia, parts of France, Switzerland

I Eventually came to England and the Dutch Republic

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The Reformation

The Pope as the Antichrist, signing and selling indulgences

Well known hypothesis: the Reformation was a “child of the press”

Why?

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Connection between the Press and the Reformation

“[The printing press is] God’s highest and ultimate gift of grace by which He would have His Gospel carried forward.”

–Martin Luther

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Connection between the Press and the Reformation

“[The printing press is] God’s highest and ultimate gift of grace by which He would have His Gospel carried forward.”

–Martin Luther

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Connection between the Press and the Reformation

Jan Hus burning at the stake

I The press allowed for the quick spreading of ideas

I Previous attempts at reform (Gerson, Hus) failed despite many similarities to Luther’s movement

I The key difference: Luther had the press

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Connection between the Press and the Reformation

Jan Hus burning at the stake

I The spread of pamphlets via reforming preachers: impossible with such speed prior to the press

I Pamphlets: easy to transport, inexpensive, easy to reproduce

I Often combined with broadsheets to make points clear to the audience

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Luther’s Quill and Pope Leo “The Lion”

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Connection between the Press and the Reformation

I Whether the historiography connecting the press and the Reformation is correct is an empirical question

I This is testable! I spent a couple years of my life putting together and analyzing these data

I For all of 9 pages in the book...

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Connection between the Press and the Reformation

I Whether the historiography connecting the press and the Reformation is correct is an empirical question

I This is testable! I spent a couple years of my life putting together and analyzing these data

I For all of 9 pages in the book...

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The Spread of Printing and the Reformation

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Main Empirical Finding

Main Finding: Cities with printing presses were 29 percentage points more likely to adopt the Reformation, all else equal

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The Reformation and Legitimation

I Major institutional consequence of the Reformation: it demolished the legitimating role of the Church

I But rulers still needed legitimacy

To whom did they turn?

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The Reformation and Legitimation

I Major institutional consequence of the Reformation: it demolished the legitimating role of the Church

I But rulers still needed legitimacy

To whom did they turn?

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The Reformation and Legitimation

I Major institutional consequence of the Reformation: it demolished the legitimating role of the Church

I But rulers still needed legitimacy

To whom did they turn?

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The Reformation and the Rise of Parliaments

16th century English Parliament

I Contention of the book: Protestant rulers turned to Parliaments to legitimate rule

I Meant that parliaments gained bargaining power vis-à-vis rulers

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The Reformation and the Rise of Parliaments

16th century English Parliament

I Contention of the book: Protestant rulers turned to Parliaments to legitimate rule

I Meant that parliaments gained bargaining power vis-à-vis rulers

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The Reformation and the Rise of Parliaments

16th century English Parliament

I Most parliaments were comprised of the ”three estates”: clergy, landed nobility, urban elite

I Important consequence: massive shift in bargaining power for elites with commercial interests

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The Reformation and the Rise of Parliaments

16th century English Parliament

I Most parliaments were comprised of the ”three estates”: clergy, landed nobility, urban elite

I Important consequence: massive shift in bargaining power for elites with commercial interests

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Average Parliament Meetings per Century Catholic and Protestant Territories

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Application: England England’s Reformation

Henry VIII

I Prior to the Reformation, Church played key role in propagating rule (major landowner, political player)

I 1530s: England adopted the Reformation under Henry VIII

I Pushed through by Parliament

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Application: England Upshots of England’s Reformation

Elizabeth I

I The English Reformation altered basis for political legitimacy

I Parliament played new and important role

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Application: England Upshots of England’s Reformation

Elizabeth I

I Upshot: major voice given to property holders

I Hundreds of bills concerning industry, agriculture, poor relief

I Stronger Parliament set stage for conflicts of 17th century

Skip to Ottoman Empire

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Application: Dutch Republic Rise of the Dutch

I Dutch Republic: extremely successful in 16th-18th centuries

I Also Protestant

I ... A coincidence?

Rembrandt

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Application: Dutch Republic Rise of the Dutch

I Striking fact: Belgium was one of wealthiest places in Europe in late medieval Europe (Antwerp, Bruges, Ghent), BUT it was the Netherlands that pulled ahead

Rembrandt

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Application: Dutch Republic Rise of the Dutch

I Dutch Revolt against Spain in 1560s: 80 Years War

I Reformation: played critical role in early stages

Rembrandt

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Application: Dutch Republic Changes in Dutch political power

I Dutch commercial class gained much from Church removal

I Many merchants were Protestants (escaped from Belgium)

I Clerical property transferred to cities 17th century Dutch wine

merchants

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Application: Dutch Republic Changes in Dutch political power

I Revolt gave urban elite upper hand over other interests in governing the Republic

I Dramatic and permanent shift of power away from religious elite towards commercial interests 17th century Dutch wine

merchants

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Application: Dutch Republic Long Run Effects

I Dominance of commercial and urban interests seen in policies

I Establishment of trade companies (East, West India Companies)

I Public goods (canals, inland transport, poor relief)

Dutch East India Company

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Application: Dutch Republic Long Run Effects

I Result: population explosion, greater urbanization, increase in real wages and productivity, trade dominance

I The Dutch “Golden Age”

Dutch East India Company

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Application: Spain Religious Legitimacy in Spain

I What happened to the Catholic countries?

I Spain provides a good test case: was dominant in 16th century after founding of New World, but stagnated after

Ferdinand and Isabella

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Application: Spain Religious Legitimacy in Spain

I Religious conflict played key role in Spanish history

I Reconquest: completed by “Catholic monarchs” Isabella and Ferdinand in 1492

I Inquisition of Jews, Muslims

Ferdinand and Isabella

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Application: Spain Upshots of Religious Legitimacy in Spain

I Charles I (1516-1556) and Philip II (1556-1598): specie from Americas + religious legitimacy = upper hand against Cortes

I Received revenue while giving little in return

Charles I

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Application: Spain Upshots of Religious Legitimacy in Spain

I Upshot: little role for commercial interests in government

I Fought expensive foreign wars

I Kicked out productive Jews, Muslims, converts

I Weak property rights for American trade

Charles I

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Application: Spain Upshots of Religious Legitimacy in Spain

Crown able to do this because had legitimacy and outside funding

Charles I

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Application: Spain Long run effects on Spanish economy

I Long run: Spanish economy crumbled

I Poorer in absolute terms after 16th century

I Average Spaniard poorer in 1820 than in 1500!

I Urbanization rate fell after 16th century

Spanish peasant 35 / 40

Spanish Real Wages, 1300-1850

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Application: Ottoman Empire Ottoman propagation of rule

I Sultanate propagated by religious establishment, military elite

I Sultan gave military elite tracts in newly conquered lands, they became tax farmers

Suleiman the Magnificent

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Application: Ottoman Empire Ottoman propagation of rule

Allowed sultan to stay in power without bargaining with other agents

Suleiman the Magnificent

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Application: Ottoman Empire Religion and the State

I Sultans brought religious hierarchy into the state

I Gave sultan considerable jurisdiction while keeping façade of “Islamic” law

Grand mufti Ebussuud Efendi

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Application: Ottoman Empire Religion and the State

I Consequence: did not have to negotiate with moneyed elite for revenue or legitimacy

I Nothing like European parliaments ever formed in Ottoman Empire

Grand mufti Ebussuud Efendi

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Application: Ottoman Empire Upshots of Ottoman propagating arrangement

I Upshot: commercial interests never had say in government

I Restrictions of private capital accumulation

I Uncertain property rights

I Partial jurisprudence

I Little modification of commercial tax law to favor commerce

Ottoman Qadi court 39 / 40

Some Concluding Thoughts

I Divergence between Western Europe and Middle East not about religion per se

I More about role of religion in politics

I Not a deterministic story!

I Just a diagnosis, not a cure: getting the “right” institutions depends on culture, history

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Some Concluding Thoughts

I Divergence between Western Europe and Middle East not about religion per se

I More about role of religion in politics

I Not a deterministic story!

I Just a diagnosis, not a cure: getting the “right” institutions depends on culture, history

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Some Concluding Thoughts

I Divergence between Western Europe and Middle East not about religion per se

I More about role of religion in politics

I Not a deterministic story!

I Just a diagnosis, not a cure: getting the “right” institutions depends on culture, history

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Some Concluding Thoughts

Thank You!

www.jaredcrubin.com [email protected]

7@jaredcrubin

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