Forecasting
S.SHARON
revisionDOC344.docxRunning head: FOFRECASTING 1
FORECASTING 2
Forecasting
Student’s Name
Institutional Affiliation
Here there is good news and bad news, for a start we will tell you the good news, and let them (point to the next group) tell you regarding the bad news.
As with every equation, and every model, there are myriad assumptions that are made when the equations are derived. If those assumptions aren't valid, the results from the equation or model cannot be trusted. Here are our assumptions. Assumptions geared towards the good results of Big Box Stores (Big Box stores FC of known future). Comment by 单双: Rewrite in same meaning
Assumptions：
1. What’s been happening will continue to happen, at least across the forecasting horizon. In as much as there are booms and recession, there is an upwards and outwards trend that shows the increase in sales will continue. From the graph in the excel sheet show that sales have been rising from 2010 to 2017 i.e. from an approximate 28000 units at the start of 2010 to a high of 45000 sales in the year 2016. Comment by 单双: rewrite this sentence in same meaning Comment by 单双: Pls open the link and glance over, you can see many graphs for each title, then you can what know what I mean. I did not need you describe overall trend, just want to tell my audience that the trend of next year will is going to follow the trend of last year, in another words, the trend of these period look like same. you can see the graphs in this link: http://www.economagic.com/cenret.htm#USRet_NSA)
(that is to mean the next trend of period will is going to follow the trend of last period, in another words, the trend of these period look like same. you can see the graphs in this link: http://www.economagic.com/cenret.htm#USRet_NSA)
2. All the causes of variation in our sales are imbedded in the data. Those causes, whatever they were, will – by "assumption 1" – keep happening; this is to mean that the cause is embedded in the data. Since the sales are highest in December, it probably goes for every December since people spend a lot in departmental stores. Comment by 单双: Rewrite this shentence in same meaning
(Market forces of demand and supply causes the booms and recession in sales, we cannot be in a position to know what causes such, only which it will continue to affect our data.)
Step in “assumption 2”: All the reasons of difference in our sales are from within the financial information recorded in different financial years. Those reasons, whatsoever they were, will – by supposition 1 – go on taking place.
(Click the Excel program "Mgt301-BigBox-known future" -- it is now open) The following sales history diagram is what assumption we are talking about and what has been going on and keeps going on. And we can understand a common pattern --click regression line -- and we can enhance cyclical effects -- click Model -- and it seems very beautiful, correct?
If the actual sales are something to go by, then we can see that they have been working well for a while. All the same, I must say that the sales for the last few months have been very much okay than most stakeholders expected. As such maybe there are several improvements we can realize. We could project all the Januarys together, then an entirety of all the Februarys, and so on. This is known as auto regression, and it brings forth all these results.
My friend will visit the website and transfer the cursor to the screen. (More to follow...)
http://www.economagic.com/cenret.htm#USRet_NSA3.
2. Good outcomes:
