Forecasting

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Hi, I want you read my outline first, then you can know what I need to say, and I also upload an excel that I will use in my presentation. Then pls read this file, I write my speak note, but my English is not good, so pls help me write down every sentence that I will say in my presentation. Pls use simple sentence, oral English.

Good evening，my name is __

Here have good news and bad news, in this part we will tell you the good news, and they ( point to next group) will tell you about the bad news.

As with every equation, and every model, there are assumptions that are made when the equations are derived. If those assumptions aren't valid, the results from the equation or model can't be trusted. Here are our assumptions. Assumptions, good results (Big Box stores FC of known future)

Assumptions：

1. What’s been happening will continue to happen, at least across the forecasting horizon.

(that is mean the next trend of period will is going to follow the trend of last period, in another words, the trend of these period look like same. you can see the graphs in this link: http://www.economagic.com/cenret.htm#USRet_NSA)

2. All the causes of variation in our sales are imbedded in the data. Those causes, whatever they were, will – by "assumption 1" – keep happening.

(that is mean the cause is embeded in the data, since it's happen in Dec, it probably goes every Dec.

Something cause the up and down, we do not need to know what cause are, only know it will continue to cause our data.)

Step in “assumption 2”: Click the Excel program "Mgt301-BigBox-KnownFuture" -- it is already open -- and talk about the Sales History graph(in here, you need write something to describe the graph). Something like, This sales history is what Assumption is talking about -- what's been happening keeps happening(that is mean trend of every year is same). And we can find a trend --click regression line (describe it)-- and we can add seasonal effects -- click Model(describe it) -- and it looks really good, right? And keep talking like that

Then you’ll say something like, Let’s see how good the model is, OK? It looks really good, doesn’t it? Then you’ll show the actual sales and say something like, well it worked for a while, but the last few months the actual sales did better than we thought. Maybe there’s an improvement we can make. We could forecast all the Januarys together, then all the Februarys, and so on. This is called autoregression and it gives these results.