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Quinn Discussion

       According to Friis and Sellers, the pie model demonstrates that disease can be caused by more than one factor (Friis & Sellers, 2014). They depict the components as “sufficient cause” as a set of marginal requirements and incidents that create disease (Friis & Sellers, 2014). The risk factors for type 2 diabetes include obesity, smoking, physical inactivity, and poor diet. Diabetes is causally linked to cardiovascular disease, a significant contributor to that disease. It is the leading cause of limb amputations, new cases of blindness, and kidney failure in the U.S. (CDC 2011). In 2012, diabetes cost $245 billion in direct and indirect costs. The incidents in which diabetes occurs in the U.S. is significant. In 2015 it was projected that there were 415 million people with diabetes (age 20–79), with 5.0 million deaths attributable to diabetes, and the total worldwide health expenses due to diabetes were estimated at 673 billion US dollars. Three-quarters of those with diabetes are living in low- and middle-income countries. The number of people with diabetes aged 20–79 years was projected to rise to 642 million by 2040. Diabetes prevalence, deaths attributable to diabetes, and health expenses persist to increase across the globe with important social, financial, and health system implications.

Outcomes for diabetes are based on treatment options, education on diet and exercise, and testing blood glucose levels (HbA1C) (insulin resistance) (CDC, 2019). The relationships can be demonstrated in the pie model with each section represented in a piece of the pie. Once the pieces of the pie are linked, they are sufficient in determining the cause of the disease. The necessary cause (in this case insulin resistance) of the disease will appear in each slice of the pie because without it the disease will not occur.

Hill’s criteria of causality incorporate the strength of the association, consistency, specificity, temporality, biological gradient, plausibility, coherence, experiment, and analogy (Friis & Sellers, 2014). By applying this criterion with a pie chart, we can learn more about the relationship between type 2 diabetes and outcomes. It may be determined that an obese individual is at higher risk for diabetes than an individual that is not obese. This example demonstrates the strength of association. Utilizing Hill’s criteria, we can better understand the linkage between risk factors and outcomes of health issues.

References

 Center for Disease and Control and Prevention. National diabetes fact sheet, 2011. Fast facts on diabetes. Atlanta, GA:US Department of Health and Human Services; 2011.Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. (2019, May 30). Type 2 Diabetes. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. https://www.cdc.gov/diabetes/basics/type2.html.

Friis, R., & Sellers, T. (2014). Epidemiology for public health practice (5th ed.). Jones and Bartlett.

 Ogurtsova, K., Fernandes, J. D. da R., Huang, Y., Linnenkamp, U., Guariguata, L., Cho, N. H.,Makaroff, L. E. (2017, March 31). IDF Diabetes Atlas: Global estimates for the prevalence of diabetes for 2015 and 2040. Diabetes Research and Clinical Practice. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0168822717303753. 

World Health Organization. (2020, June 8). Diabetes. World Health Organization. https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/diabetes.

Staci Discussion:

Heart disease was the death cause I selected for Module 4; it has the peculiar property that it can be caused by a number of different factors rather than just one single one, which makes it a potentially lethal cause of death. Additionally, a number of risk factors, including high blood pressure, a family history of the condition, excessive cholesterol, and others, might increase the likelihood of developing heart disease.

According to Ventriglio, Belllomo, and Bhugra (2016), the web of causation is a model that considers "complex precursors to each component of the chain, and these may...overlap and may have further complex interactions," and it illustrates the various potential interventions that can be used to prevent and control disease (Friis & Sellers, 2014). Heart disease is a complex disease in that there are differences based on age, sex/gender, race and ethnicity, socioeconomic status, geographic differences, urban/rural differences, and others. This is especially true when it comes to the relationship between risk factors and outcomes associated with heart disease, which may be more so than other common infectious diseases. One of the three key risk factors is present in about 47% of Americans. Smoking, high blood cholesterol, and high blood pressure. For members of most racial and ethnic groups in the US, including African Americans, American Indians, Alaska Natives, Hispanics, and white men, heart disease is the top cause of death. Heart disease is the leading cause of death in Pacific Islander, Asian American, American Indian, Alaska Native, and Hispanic women (CDC, 2019). Additionally, these racial groups have a high risk of developing diabetes, are frequently physically inactive, have high levels of stress, and have low incomes. The structural, economic, and social imbalances that these groups are most susceptible to increase the hazards brought on by these combinations of risk variables. Despite advancements in prevention and treatment, studies have shown that the long-lasting impacts of inequality that continue to this day remain a major cause of mortality and morbidity among these groups (Mitka, 2004). When compared to more affluent communities, these individuals frequently live in urban districts and low-income communities that frequently struggle with a lack of infrastructure, protection, increased pollution, and physical space (Mitka, 2004). Compared to urban areas, rural towns frequently have a considerably bigger senior population and lack access to services, supermarkets, and healthful foods. They also frequently have fewer health care providers and hospitals (CDC, 2019).

There are nine principles in Hill's criteria for causal inference that might help build epidemiological proof of a connection between a hypothesized cause and an observed effect. Strength, consistency, specificity, timing, biological gradient, plausibility, coherence, experiment, and analogy are some of these concepts (Fedak, Bernal, Capshaw, & Gross, 2015). The hill criteria argues that in the case of strength, a small association does not rule out the possibility of a causal effect, while the likelihood of a causal effect increases with the size of the association. Although statistics show that minority groups will eventually outnumber white Americans in population by 2060 despite the fact that heart disease affects racial minorities disproportionately compared to white Americans, by just a little percentage (1%), as the country continues to become more diverse (Lackland, 2014). If lifestyle modifications and greater awareness of this disease are promoted, the number of deaths among minorities may increase by more than 10% in the coming decades (Lackland, 2014). The use of high-calorie meals (which are simply less expensive to buy and more full) might result in high blood pressure or high cholesterol, 2 important risk factors for heart disease later in life, because these minority groups are frequently low-income. Given that approximately 30-45 percent of minority groups experience high blood pressure, this suggests that there is a substantial correlation between a risk factor like high blood pressure and heart disease (Lackland, 2014). Influenza exposure occurs before the outcome (death), which in this situation is reasonable given the wealth of research because the exposure is linked to the environmental, social, and economic inequalities that might eventually result in having the risk factors that can result in eventual mortality. 

CDC. (2019). Heart Disease Facts.  https://www.cdc.gov/heartdisease/facts.htm

CDC. (2019). Rural Health.  https://www.cdc.gov/chronicdisease/resources/publications/factsheets/rural-health.htm

Fedak, K. M., Bernal, A., Capshaw, Z. A., & Gross, S. (2015). Applying the Bradford Hill criteria in the 21st century: How data integration has changed causal inference in molecular epidemiology. Emerging Themes in Epidemiology,12(1).

doi:10.1186/s12982-015-0037-4.

Friis, R. & Sellers, T. (2014).Epidemiology for public health practice. Burlington, MA: Jones & Bartlett.

Lackland, D. T. (2014). Racial Differences in Hypertension: Implications for High Blood Pressure Management. The American Journal of the Medical Sciences, 348(2), 135-138. doi:10.1097/maj.0000000000000308.

Mitka, M. (2004). Heart Disease a Global Health Threat. Jama, 291(21), 2533. doi:10.1001/jama.291.21.2533

Ventriglio, A., Bellomo, A., & Bhugra, D. (2016). Web of Causation and Its Implications for Epidemiological Research. Int J Soc Psychiatry, 3-4. doi:10.1177/0020764015587629.