Reeby Sports -
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George observes boon value per share as $13.17 which relates to year 2019. As such we assume data for 2020 are estimates.
Based on 3 years data from 2015 to year 2019:
The average ROE, average dividend payout ratio (dividend per share/EPS) and retention ratio ( 1 - dividend payout ratio) are calculated for 5 years as below:
The average ROE % is 15.6% ,
average dividend payout ratio is 29.5% and
average retention ratio is 70.5%
Growth = ROE * Retention ratio = 15.6% * 70.5% = 11% (rounded off)
When opportunities for investment disappears after six or eight years:
ROE will be equal to Cost of capital = 10% and
Growth will be = 10% * 70.5% = 7% (rounded off)
Assumption : The opportunity for further profitable investment disappears after six years:
Current Share Value = Present value of dividends from year 2020 to 2025 + Present value of dividends from year 2026 onwards
Present value of dividends from year 2020 to 2025 is calculated as below:
DIVIDEND IN 2027=DIVIDEND IN 2026*1.07=1.20
PV of dividends from year 2026 onwards = [$1.20 /(10% - 7%)] / (1 + 10%)6
=$22.58
Current Share value = $22.58 + $3.72 =$26.30
Assumption : The opportunity for further profitable investment disappears after eight years:
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Present value of dividends from year 2021 to 2028 is calculated as below:
Dividend in year 2029 = Dividend in year 2028 * 1.07
= $1.48
PV of of dividends from year 2029 onwards = [$1.48 /(10% - 7%)] / (1 + 10%)8
=$23.01
Current share value per share = $23.01 + $5.00 = $28.01
Current Share value = $22.58 + $3.72 =$26.30