In a time series analysis, if the value for the and , then the seasonal variation would be:
A. 5
B. 10
C. 15
D. 20
20. Which of the following is NOT a characteristic of exponential smoothing?
A. Smooth’s random variations in a data
B. Easily altered weighting scheme
C. Weights each historical value equally
D. Has minimal data storage requirements
21. A six – months moving average forecast is better than a three – months moving average forecast if demand:
A. is rather stable
B. has been changing due to recent promotional efforts
C. follows an upward trend
D. follows a downward trend
22. When there is no significant upward or downward movement (or trend) in a time series data overtime, then the data is said to be:
A. Critical
B. Invalid
C. Non-stationary
D. Stationary
Use the following information to answer Questions 22 -24
The table below contains the number of complaints received from the students in 2013:
|
Month
|
Complaints
|
Weight
|
|
January
|
44
|
0.0
|
|
February
|
49
|
0.1
|
|
March
|
57
|
0.2
|
|
April
|
80
|
0.3
|
|
May
|
121
|
0.4
|
|
June
|
150
|
0.5
|
23. If a three term moving average is used to smooth this series, what would be the second calculated term?
A. 43
B. 62
C. 86
D. 117
24. What would be the last term of a 4-month moving average?
A. 85
B. 98
C. 102
D. 117
25. If the weights listed on the column 3 of the table are applied, what is the moving average at the month of May?
A. 10.0
B. 18.6
C. 34.4
D. 58.5
26. ___________ use(s) management judgement, expertise and opinion to make forecasts.
A. Qualitative methods
B. Quantitative methods
C. Regression
D. Time series
27. In exponential smoothing, the closer alpha is to _____, the greater the reaction to the most recent demand.
A. – 1
B. 0
C. 1
D. – 1 or 1
28. _______ is the difference between the forecast and actual demand.
A. Forecast mistake
B. Forecast error
C. Forecast accuracy
D. Mean Absolute Deviation, MAD
29. Which of the following is NOT present in a time series?
A. Operational variations
B. Seasonality
C. Trend
D. Random variations
30.
In a time series analysis, Calculate the actual value
y
using the time series model.
A. 30
B. 80
C. 150
D. 160
31. All the following are forecasting techniques
EXCEPT
:
A. Causal models
B. Qualitative models
C. Optimistic Predictor models
D. Time-series models
32. Time-Series analysis is described best as the forecasting techniques that:
Attempt to incorporate judgemental or subjective factors in decision making.
Relies on quantitative data and incorporates variables or factors that might influence quantity being forecasted.
Develops the best statistical relationship between dependent and independent variables.
Make assumption about what will happen in the future as a function of what happened in the past.
33. Bob forecasted the total hospital impatient days for three months.
|
Months
|
January
|
February
|
March
|
|
Forecast
|
250
|
300
|
275
|
|
Actual
|
243
|
315
|
286
|
With the actual data received, the mean absolute deviation (MAD) of his forecasted model is:
1
3
11
33
34. Which of the following is
NOT
a quantitative forecasting model?
A. Exponential Smoothing
B. Trend Analysis
C. Consumer Market Survey
D. Causal Regression Analysis
35. The time series demand pattern that is shown in the diagram is:
![]()
Cyclic
Horizontal
Seasonal
Trend
36.
In exponential smoothing, the smoothing constant has a value:
A. less than 0
B. between -1 and 1 inclusive
C. between 0 and 1 inclusive
D. greater than 1
SECTION B…30 marks
Instruction: Answer ALL questions. ALL working must be CLEARLY shown.
Building Materials Ltd. wants to predict their sales for the fiscal year 2020, and the financial team was provided with the following table with actual sales value in thousands of dollars:
|
Month
|
Sales ($’000)
|
|
January
|
153
|
|
February
|
147
|
|
March
|
204
|
|
April
|
198
|
|
May
|
216
|
|
June
|
139
|
|
July
|
162
|
Writing all answers to the nearest whole number:
(i) Compute a four – month simple moving average forecast for the sales from May to August 2020.
(4 marks)
(ii) If the actual sales for August is $183,000, what is the percentage error in the forecast? (2 marks)
(iii)
Compute a four – month weighted moving average forecast for the sales from May to August 2020, using the weights: .
(4 marks)
(iv)
Compute the exponential smoothing forecast from February to August using and an initial forecast for January as $150,000.
(6 marks)
(v) Calculate the Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) for each forecasting method. (4 marks)
(vi) Calculate the Mean Square Error (MSE)for the weighted moving average (3 marks)
(vii) Calculate the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) for the exponential smooth forecast. ( 7 marks)
450.5,
yt
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(
)
130,()140
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(
)
a
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===
REDZ18
REDZ18T6...TimeSeriesAnalysis.docx
