Assignment

b.  Forecast September sales volume using each of the following.  Round all answers to two decimal places.

     1.  the naive approach

     2.  a five-month moving average

     3.  a weighted average using 0.60 for August, 0.30 for July, and 0.10 for June

     4.  Exponential smoothing with a smoothing constant equal to 0.20, assuming a March forecast of 19(000)

     5.  a linear trend equation (Use Excel to generate the equation of the trend line and then calculate the forecast.)

 For September x=8

Forecast for September=

c. Which method seems least appropriate?  Why?

Five month moving average because the data appears to vary around average of 19000 (18857.14)

d. What does the use of the term "sales" rather than "demand" presume?

The use of sales instead of demand implies that the sales adequately reflect demand.

Provide answers to both of these questions in the space below.

A dry cleaner uses exponential smoothing to forecast equipment usage at its main plant.  August usage was forecasted to be 88% of capacity; actual usage was 89.6% of capacity.  A smoothing constant of 0.1 is used.  Round all answers to two decimal places.

a.  Prepare a forecast for September.

b.. Assuming actual September usage of 92%, prepare a forecast October usage.

Question 5 10 pts

An electrical contractor's records during the last five weeks indicate the number of job requests:

Predict the number of requests for week 6 using each of these methods.  Round all answers to two decimal places.

a.  naive

b.  a four-month moving average

c.  exponential smoothing with alpha=0.30; use 20 for week 2 forecast.

Air travel on Mountain Airlines for the past 18 weeks was:

a.  Explain why an averaging technique would not be appropriate for forecasting.

b.  Use an appropriate technique to develop a forecast for the expected number of passengers for the next three weeks.  Explain your rationale as well as provide your forecasts.

Question 8 20 pts