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Data Analysis and Decision Making with Microsoft Excel, Revised (3rd Edition)
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Problem
It is widely known that many drivers on interstate highways in the United States do not observe the posted speed limit. Assume that the actual rates of speed driven by U.S. motorists are normally distributed with mean mph and standard deviation 5 mph. Given this information,
answer each of the following independent questions. (Hint: Use Goal Seek in parts a and b, and use the Solver add-in with no objective in part c. Solver is usually used to optimize, but it can also be used to solve equations with multiple unknowns.)
a. If 40% of all U.S. drivers are observed traveling at 65 mph or more, what is the mean
b. If 25% of all U.S. drivers are observed traveling at 50 mph or less, what is the mean
c. Suppose now that the mean and standard deviation of this distribution are both unknown. Furthermore, it is observed that 40% of all U.S. drivers travel at less than 55 mph and 10% of all U.S. drivers travel at more than 70 mph. What must be?
Step-by-step solution
Many drivers on Interstate highways in the United States do not observe the posted speed limit, therefore it is assumed that the actual rates of speed driven by U.S. motorists are normally distributed with mean mph and standard deviation mph.
Comment
Let be the random variable that denotes the actual rates of speed driven by U.S. motorists. So follows a normal distribution with mean mph and standard deviation mph.
Symbolically,
For the given distribution,
Comment
a. Compute the value of mean given that of all U.S. drivers observed to be traveling at mph or more.
That is, determine the value of using the probability expression given as follows.
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Comment
Also,
This implies,
Comment
Perform the probability calculation using Excel Statistical function NORMDIST which
contains parameter .Thus knowing the probability, obtain the value of parameter by using Goal Seek.
Comment
First, assign any finite integer value to the mean and corresponding to that, calculate using NORMDIST which takes the parameters defined as follows,
- The value for which we want to obtain the probability,
- Mean of normal population.
- Standard Deviation of normal population,
1 – Logical value that gives cumulative probability.
Comment
Now choose the Excel statistical function NORMDIST from the formula bar ofExcel
worksheet and substitute the values of parameters. The function will generate some probability. Select the cell containing so obtained probability. Now Goal seek is used to determine the value of mean .
Comment
The steps for using Goal seek to determine the value of mean are given below
1. Go to Data, select What if analysis and choose Goal seek.
2. The dialog box for the Goal Seek will appear.
3. Set cellto the cell containing so obtained probability.
4. In the To value, input the value of the probability given that is 0.60.
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5. By changing cell that contains the assumed mean, thereby getting the required value of mean in the same cell replacing the assumed value.
Comment
The screen shot for Goal Seek is given below.
Comment
The Excel worksheet will appear as
Comments (1)
Hence if of all U.S. drivers are observed to be traveling at mph or more then from the
above table, the value of mean speed is .
Comment
b. Determine the value of mean given that of all U.S. drivers are observed to be traveling at mph or less.
That is, to determine the value of using the probability expression given as follows.
Now perform the probability calculation using Excel Statistical function NORMDIST
which contains parameter .Thus knowing the probability, obtain the value of parameter by using Goal Seek.
Comment
First, assign any finite integer value to the mean and corresponding to that, calculate using NORMDIST which takes the parameter defined as follows
- The value for which we want to obtain the probability, that is .
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- Mean of normal population.
- Standard Deviation of normal population.
1 – Logical value that gives cumulative probability.
Comment
Now choose the Excel statistical function NORMDIST from the formula bar of Excel
worksheet and substitute the values of parameters. The function will generate some probability. Select the cell containing the obtained probability. Now Goal seek is used to determine the value of mean .
Comment
The steps for using Goal seek to determine the value of mean are given below
1. Go to Data, select What if analysis and choose Goal seek.
2. The dialog box for the Goal Seek will appear.
3. Set cell to the cell containing so obtained probability.
4. In the To value, input the value of the probability given that is 0.25.
5. By changing cell that contains the assumed mean, thereby getting the required value of mean in the same cell replacing the assumed value.
Comment
The screen shot for Goal Seek is given below.
Comment
The Excel worksheet is given below.,
Comment
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Hence if of all U.S. drivers are observed to be traveling at mph or less then, from the
above table we get the value of mean speed as .
Comment
c. It is given that of all U.S. drivers travel at less than mph and of all U.S. drivers travel at more than mph and corresponding to this given information, find the value of unknown mean and unknown standard deviation .
Comment
To determine the value of mean and standard deviation using the probability expression given as follows:
And
Comment
Also,
So,
This implies,
Comment
Perform the probability calculation using Excel Statistical function NORMDIST which
contains parameters and .
The arguments of the function NORMDIST are defined below.
- The value for which we want to obtain the probability.
- Mean of normal population.
- Standard Deviation of normal population.
1 – Logical value that gives cumulative probability.
Comment
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Therefore, assign any finite integer value of your choice to the mean and standard deviation for both the given probabilities.
Now calculate the probabilities and each corresponding to these
assumed values of parameters, using the function NORMDIST .
Choose the Excel statistical function NORMDIST from the formula bar of Excel
worksheet and substitute the values of parameters. The function will generate some probability for each set of parameters.
Comment
Thus, knowing the probability, obtain the value of parameters and by using Solver add-in. Select the cell containing one of the two obtained probabilities and then from the tool menu select Solver add-in.
Comment
The dialog box for the Solver add-in will appear.
Set the cell containing probability as the target cell equal to the value of given probability, that is, for by changing the cell containing the assumed mean and assumed
standard deviation, thereby getting the required value of mean and standard deviation in the same cell replacing the assumed values.
Comment
Similarly repeat the same steps for probability to get the actual value of parameters
corresponding to this probability.
Comment
The Excel worksheet is given below.
Comment
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Hence from the above table, it is observed that for of all U.S. drivers who travel at less than mph the values of unknown mean and standard deviation are
and for of all U.S. drivers who travel at more than mph
the values of unknown mean and standard deviation are .
Comment
0 2
Chapter 6, Problem 24P
Past experience indicates that 30% of all individuals entering a certain store decide to make a purchase. Using (a) the binomial distribution and (b) the normal approximation to the binomial, find that probability that 10 or more of the 30...
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