Researchpaper
SARAH SMITH
PulloutofUSForcesformSyria.pdf
Pullout of US forces from Syria
Sarah Albannay
Thesis statement
► The costs outweigh the benefits of the United States pulling out of Syria as President Trump announced
► Destabilizing the region- The Kurds will be left alone. ► The forces are deployed along the border which joins Syria, Iraq,
and Jordan, the forces are able to block Iran from taking over Iraqi-Syria border (Falode et al., 2019).
► Israel the main ally of US is likely to be attacked (Barnes & Barron, 2018).
Syria
Literature Review
► Barnes, J., & Barron, R. (2018). Trump Policy in the Middle East: ISIS. Issue Brief, 1. ❖ Claim that the withdrawal of the U.S from Syria will also imply that Russia and Iran
will have an easy path to enter Syria and deploy their agendas to the Syrian government.
► Black, I. (2018). Donald Trump and the Middle East. Political Insight, 9(1), 22-25. ❖ Examined the relationship between YGP, Turkey and the United States. ► Jones, S. G. (2018). Developing a Containment Strategy in Syria. Center for
Strategic & International Studies ❖ Examines the positive impacts of the withdrawal towards Syrian economy. ► Dalton, M. (2017). Defeating terrorism in Syria: A new way forward. Hampton
Roadds International Security Quarterly, 16. ❖ Analyses the diplomatic impact of withdrawal forces of the US forces on
international states and growth of new way of fighting terrorism.
Current Situation In Syria
► There is civil war. ► Between the loyal soldiers to the national Government (Bashar al-Assad). ► And Fighters (Militia) who don’t want Assad to be in power. ► The Islamic State (IS). ► The rebels Kurds who fight alongside the US in taking back land
occupied by IS ► Syrian government claims to have taken much of the IS territories (Dalton,
2017) ► In 2018, armed forces from the UK, the US and France fired missiles to
destroy what they say was a chemical weapons factories in Syria (Jones, 2018)
► In December 2018 US threatens to pull out of Syria Claiming to have achieved the mission
Complexity of the debate
► Rebels against rebel war ❖ The Kurds rebels of the government are fighting against IS rebels and
extremists. ► Rebels backed by strong and powerful foreign power ❖ The Kurds are supported by the US forces . The rebels are referred by
the Turkey’s government as terrorist. Other international powers and enemies of the US have interests in Syria
❖ Turkey, Russia and Iran have shown political and economic interests in Russia and therefore the withdrawal will favor them. (Blanchard yet al 2017)
The pull out impacts-Negative
► Domestic Politics ❖ Strong Protest from Congress. ❖ Opposition rejects the move claiming that the US does not have an
exit strategy. ❖ Claims that the action is based on political and personal objectives
rather national security interest.
The pull out impacts
► The states that are affected include; ❖ Syria ❖ Israel- will have less allies in the country ❖ Turkey-strike kurdish allies ❖ Iran - more powerful and will use syria as an
pathway ❖ Russia - expand their role
The pull out impacts-Negative towards the US
► Win for Russia ❖ Russia win with USA troops pull out from Syria. ❖ Russia will be able to expand its influence through Iran in the middle
East. ❖ The action ruined the plans of Trump’s advisers and generals. ❖ US presence in Syria has been blocking Iranian expansion which has
Russian influence. ❖ U.S. retreat from Syria has been received with satisfaction in the
broad camp that supported the Bashar Assad regime in the Syrian civil war, led by Russia and Iran.
The pull out impacts-Negative
► Effects on US influence;; According to Jones (2018); ❖ Lose its strategic benefit presence in Syria The US forces with Kurdish
allies, hold all territories to the east of River Euphrates ❖ Which about a quarter of the entire of the entire territory of Syria. ❖ America will lose an important asset which would grain its influence
over whatever surface in Syria after the civil war is over.
The pull out impacts-Negative
► Effects on US influence;; According to Jones (2018); ❖ Lose of operations to be conducted over the Special Forces base in
Al-Tanf, ❖ The base is near the triangle border. ❖ US and the Kurds hold Syria's major oil and gas fields, main water
resources, dams, power plants and most of its fertile land
The pull out impacts-Negative
► Israel a major US ally is affected ❖ The Israel becomes affected; immediate conclusion is that the
desire to distance Iranian forces and the Shi’ite militias from Syria is nowhere near being realized.
❖ Distancing Iranian forces and the Shi’ite militias from Syria is nowhere near being realized.
❖ Israel is yet to face a series of confrontation with Iranian Revolutionary Guards in Syria last spring.
The pull out impacts-Negative
► Betrayal felt by the Kurd people ❖ The Israeli disappointment is just another relatively small matter
compared to the betrayal that the Kurds certainly feel. ❖ The Kurds sacrificed thousands of fighters to fight along US forces. ❖ Fought against the IS in support of American campaign. ❖ Turkey is considering imminently invading the Syrian territory to deal
with the U.S.’s fighting allies. ❖ The ethnic Kurds in Syria, whom Turkey regarded as terrorists
The pull out impacts-The benefits
► US will stop chasing trails of a region in which there is no particular interest
❖ A condition that can be related to the; ❖ Bush’s illegitimate war in Iraq made ❖ Which de-stabilized more the middle East which never knew stability. ❖ President Obama inheritance. ❖ He inherited a situation which was very horrible and that which was
handled poorly.
The pull out impacts-The benefits
► Syria will negatively be affected as shown below; ❖ Pullout of the US Forces from Syria will leave a huge power vacuum. ❖ Kurds will be alone in maintaining peace in the stable areas. ❖ Governments will take over Syria (Positive Economic imoact) ❖ Some of the Governments interested in Syria are; ❖ Turkey, Iran, Russia and Saudi Arabia (Brands & Feaver, 2017).
The pull out impacts-The benefits
► The Economic benefits ❖ The military budget that goes to funding the troops in the middle
East will be used for development in the US. ❖ The country will be able to strengthen its boarder control. ❖ The number of casualties for American soldiers will be reduced.
The pull out impacts-The benefits
► The Social benefits ❖ The number of casualties for American soldiers will be reduced. ❖ America will deprive itself of the redundant work that is not
benefiting the US but instead causing trouble to the American citizens.S
Conclusion
► While the pullout of America from Syria may have been thought to have more positive implications to the U.S. can be seen that there are more costs that will be incurred.
► The US therefore should rethink of the withdrawal or have a good strategy in ensuring a positive withdrawal of the forces.
► The strategy should prevent resurrection of the militia groups like ISIL and IS.
► There is also danger of the YGP turning to another ISIS because of the betrayal.
► In the long run the effects might cost the economic costs stated by the US.
Reference
► Barnes, J., & Barron, R. (2018). Trump Policy in the Middle East: ISIS. Issue Brief, 1.
► Blanchard, C. M., & Humud, C. E. (2017). The Islamic State and the U.S Poicy. LIBRARY OF CONGRESS WASHINGTON DC United States.
► Brands, H., & Feaver, P. (2017). Trump and Terrorism: US Strategy after ISIS. Foreign Aff., 96, 28.
► Dalton, M. (2017). Defeating terrorism in Syria: A new way forward. Hampton Roadds International Security Quarterly, 16.
► Falode, A. J., Yakubu, M. J., & Britto, R. (2019). The Pitfalls of Unilateralism: The United States in Syria. Global Journal of Human-Social Science Research.
► Ibish, H. (2017). In search of a Trump administration Middle East policy. Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington.
► Lynch, M. (2016). Belligerent minimalism: The trump administration and the Middle East. The Washington Quarterly, 39(4), 127-144.
► Jones, S. G. (2018). Developing a Containment Strategy in Syria. Center for Strategic & International Studies.
► Souleimanov, E. A., & Dzutsati, V. (2018). Russia’s Syria War: A strategic Trap? Middle East Policy, 25(2), 42-50.
► Smeltz, D., Kafura, C., & Martin, K. (2016). Americans Support Limited Military Action in Syria against ISIS. Chicago: Chicago Council on Global Affairs, 15.
