statistics report

Project One: Data Visualization, Descriptive Statistics, Confidence Intervals

This notebook contains the step-by-step directions for Project One. It is very important to run through the steps in order. Some steps depend on the outputs of earlier steps. Once you have completed the steps in this notebook, be sure to write your summary report.

You are a data analyst for a basketball team and have access to a large set of historical data that you can use to analyze performance patterns. The coach of the team and your management have requested that you use descriptive statistics and data visualization techniques to study distributions of key performance metrics that are included in the data set. These data-driven analytics will help make key decisions to improve the performance of the team. You will use the Python programming language to perform the statistical analyses and then prepare a report of your findings to present for the team’s management. Since the managers are not data analysts, you will need to interpret your findings and describe their practical implications.

There are four important variables in the data set that you will study in Project One.

Variable	What does it represent?
pts	Points scored by the team in a game
elo_n	A measure of the relative skill level of the team in the league
year_id	Year when the team played the games
fran_id	Name of the NBA team

The ELO rating, represented by the variable elo_n, is used as a measure of the relative skill of a team. This measure is inferred based on the final score of a game, the game location, and the outcome of the game relative to the probability of that outcome. The higher the number, the higher the relative skill of a team.

In addition to studying data on your own team, your management has assigned you a second team so that you can compare its performance with your own team's.

Team	What does it represent?
Your Team	This is the team that has hired you as an analyst. This is the team that you will pick below. See Step 2.
Assigned Team	This is the team that the management has assigned to you to compare against your team. See Step 1.

Reminder: It may be beneficial to review the summary report template for Project One prior to starting this Python script. That will give you an idea of the questions you will need to answer with the outputs of this script.

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Step 1: Data Preparation & the Assigned Team

	game_id	year_id	fran_id	pts	opp_pts	elo_n	opp_elo_n	game_location	game_result
0	199511030CHI	1996	Bulls	105	91	1598.2924	1531.7449	H	W
1	199511040CHI	1996	Bulls	107	85	1604.3940	1458.6415	H	W
2	199511070CHI	1996	Bulls	117	108	1605.7983	1310.9349	H	W
3	199511090CLE	1996	Bulls	106	88	1618.8701	1452.8268	A	W
4	199511110CHI	1996	Bulls	110	106	1621.1591	1490.2861	H	W

printed only the first five observations...

Number of rows in the data set = 246

Step 2: Pick Your Team

	game_id	year_id	fran_id	pts	opp_pts	elo_n	opp_elo_n	game_location	game_result
0	201211020ATL	2013	Hawks	102	109	1532.7664	1524.9491	H	L
1	201211040OKC	2013	Hawks	104	95	1551.4714	1640.7040	A	W
2	201211070ATL	2013	Hawks	89	86	1555.2542	1551.0842	H	W
3	201211090ATL	2013	Hawks	89	95	1547.6481	1667.3300	H	L
4	201211110LAC	2013	Hawks	76	89	1540.6207	1587.7803	A	L

printed only the first five observations...

Number of rows in the data set = 246

Step 3: Data Visualization: Points Scored by Your Team

Step 4: Data Visualization: Points Scored by the Assigned Team

Step 5: Data Visualization: Comparing the Two Teams

Step 6: Descriptive Statistics: Relative Skill of Your Team

Your Team's Relative Skill in 2013 to 2015

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Mean = 1539.22

Median = 1513.5

Variance = 4917.03

Standard Deviation = 70.12

Step 7 - Descriptive Statistics - Relative Skill of the Assigned Team

Assigned Team's Relative Skill in 1996 to 1998

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Mean = 1739.8

Median = 1751.23

Variance = 2651.55

Standard Deviation = 51.49

Step 8: Confidence Intervals for the Average Relative Skill of All Teams in Your Team's Years

Confidence Interval for Average Relative Skill in the years 2013 to 2015

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95% confidence interval (unrounded) for Average Relative Skill (ELO) in the years 2013 to 2015 = (1502.0236894390478, 1507.1824625533618)

95% confidence interval (rounded) for Average Relative Skill (ELO) in the years 2013 to 2015 = ( 1502.02 , 1507.18 )

Probability a team has Average Relative Skill LESS than the Average Relative Skill (ELO) of your team in the years 2013 to 2015

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Which of the two choices is correct?

Choice 1 = 0.3797

Choice 2 = 0.6203

Step 9 - Confidence Intervals for the Average Relative Skill of All Teams in the Assigned Team's Years

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Confidence Interval for Average Relative Skill in the years 1996 to 1998

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95% confidence interval (unrounded) for Average Relative Skill (ELO) in the years 1996 to 1998 = (1487.6565859527095, 1493.6465501840999)

95% confidence interval (rounded) for Average Relative Skill (ELO) in the years 1996 to 1998 = ( 1487.66 , 1493.65 )

Probability a team has Average Relative Skill LESS than the Average Relative Skill (ELO) of Bulls in the years 1996 to 1998

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Answer = 0.9732