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project2-1adaptedfromecon1152.docx

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Economics 510 Dr. John Robinson

Adapted from econ 1152 Dr. Raj Chetty

Empirical Project 2

Using Statistics

In Empirical Project 2 you will be using The Opportunity Atlas again to describe equality of opportunity in your hometown or a larger city you are closely familiar with, this time using regression, a statistical approach to connecting quantitative variables. The end product will be a 2-3 page narrative answering the questions listed below and telling the story about what you learned exploring with the atlas. Again, the data you need can be downloaded from the Opportunity Atlas website.

Specific questions to address in your narrative

1. Start by looking up the city where you grew up on the Opportunity Atlas or the city you selected from project 1. You will be downloading 6 variables

a. Household income in 2014-2015

b. % single parent 2012-2016

c. Population density in 2010

d. Income in 1990

e. Median rent 2012-2016

f. Census response rate in 2010

Download all variables using the “on screen” option once you have picked your spot and stick to the same area so the same cities are covered. You should be able to paste the six csv files you download together using the city ID into one database.

2. Run five regression analyses using each variable to predict household income. Which is the “strongest” predictor? Justify with evidence from your regressions

3. Run a multiple regression using the five factors to predict household income. How many are valuable in predicting household income for your sample? Is this consistent with your personal experience with this area? Show evidence using regression output

4. What would this analysis indicate are strengths and weaknesses for your area in bringing children out of poverty? What are policy implications you can imagine from the research for this area

DATA DESCRIPTION, FILE

The data consist of n = 73,278 U.S. Census tracts. For more details on the construction of the variables included in this data set, please see Chetty, Raj, John Friedman, Nathaniel Hendren, Maggie R. Jones, and Sonya R. Porter. 2018. “The Opportunity Atlas: Mapping the Childhood Roots of Social Mobility.” NBER Working Paper No. 25147.

Table 1

Definitions of Variables

Variable name	Label	Obs.
(1)	(2)	(3)
*1. Geographic identifiers*
tract	Tract FIPS Code (6-digit) 2010	73,278
county	County FIPS Code (3-digit)	73,278
state	State FIPS Code (2-digit)	73,278
cz	Commuting Zone Identifier (1990 Definition)	72,473

*2. Characteristics of Census tracts*
hhinc_mean2000	Mean Household Income 2000	72,302
mean_commutetime2000	Average Commute Time of Working Adults in 2000	72,313
frac_coll_plus2010	Fraction of Residents with a College Degree or More in 2010	72,993
frac_coll_plus2000	Fraction of Residents with a College Degree or More in 2000	72,343
foreign_share2010	Share of Population Born Outside the U.S.	72,279
med_hhinc2016	Median Household Income in 2016	72,763
med_hhinc1990	Median Household Income in 1999	72,313
popdensity2000	Population Density (per square mile) in 2000	72,469
poor_share2010	Poverty Rate 2010	72,933
poor_share2000	Poverty Rate 2000	72,315
poor_share1990	Poverty Rate 1990	72,323
share_black2010	Share black 2010	73,111
share_hisp2010	Share Hispanic 2010	73,111
share_asian2010	Share Asian 2010	71,945
share_black2000	Share black 2000	72,368
share_white2000	Share white 2000	72,368
share_hisp2000	Share Hispanic 2000	72,368
share_asian2000	Share Asian 2000	71,050
gsmn_math_g3_2013	Average School District Level Standardized Test Scores in 3rd Grade in 2013	72,090
rent_twobed2015	Average Rent for Two-Bedroom Apartment in 2015	56,607
singleparent_share2010	Share of Single-Headed Households with Children 2010	72,564
singleparent_share1990	Share of Single-Headed Households with Children 1990	72,196
singleparent_share2000	Share of Single-Headed Households with Children 2000	72,285
traveltime15_2010	Share of Working Adults w/ Commute Time of 15 Minutes Or Less in 2010	72,939
emp2000	Employment Rate 2000	72,344
mail_return_rate2010	Census Form Rate Return Rate 2010	72,547
ln_wage_growth_hs_grad	Log wage growth for HS Grad., 2005-2014	51,635
jobs_total_5mi_2015	Number of Primary Jobs within 5 Miles in 2015	72,311
jobs_highpay_5mi_2015	Number of High-Paying (>USD40,000 annually) Jobs within 5 Miles in 2015	72,311
nonwhite_share2010	Share of People who are not white 2010	73,111
popdensity2010	Population Density (per square mile) in 2010	73,194
ann_avg_job_growth_2004_2013	Average Annual Job Growth Rate 2004-2013	70,664
job_density_2013	Job Density (in square miles) in 2013	72,463

*3. Measures of Upward Mobility from the Opportunity Atlas*
kfr_pooled_p25	Household income ($) at age 31-37 for children with parents at the 25th percentile of the national income distribution	72,011
kfr_pooled_p75	Household income ($) at age 31-37 for children with parents at the 75th percentile of the national income distribution	72,012
kfr_pooled_p100	Household income ($) at age 31-37 for children with parents at the 100th percentile of the national income distribution	71,968
kfr_natam_p25	Household income ($) at age 31-37 for Native American children with parents at the 25th percentile of the national income distribution	1,733
kfr_natam_p75	Household income ($) at age 31-37 for Native American children with parents at the 75th percentile of the national income distribution	1,728
kfr_natam_p100	Household income ($) at age 31-37 for Native American children with parents at the 100th percentile of the national income distribution	1,594
kfr_asian_p25	Household income ($) at age 31-37 for Asian children with parents at the 25th percentile of the national income distribution	15,434
kfr_asian_p75	Household income ($) at age 31-37 for Asian children with parents at the 75th percentile of the national income distribution	15,360
kfr_asian_p100	Household income ($) at age 31-37 for Asian children with parents at the 100th percentile of the national income distribution	13,480
kfr_black_p25	Household income ($) at age 31-37 for Black children with parents at the 25th percentile of the national income distribution	34,086
kfr_black_p75	Household income ($) at age 31-37 for Black children with parents at the 75th percentile of the national income distribution	34,049
kfr_black_p100	Household income ($) at age 31-37 for Black children with parents at the 100th percentile of the national income distribution	32,536
kfr_hisp_p25	Household income ($) at age 31-37 for Hispanic children with parents at the 25th percentile of the national income distribution	37,611
kfr_hisp_p75	Household income ($) at age 31-37 for Hispanic children with parents at the 75th percentile of the national income distribution	37,579
kfr_hisp_p100	Household income ($) at age 31-37 for Hispanic children with parents at the 100th percentile of the national income distribution	35,987
kfr_white_p25	Household income ($) at age 31-37 for white children with parents at the 25th percentile of the national income distribution	67,978
kfr_white_p75	Household income ($) at age 31-37 for white children with parents at the 75th percentile of the national income distribution	67,968
kfr_white_p100	Household income ($) at age 31-37 for white children with parents at the 100th percentile of the national income distribution	67,627

*3. Counts of number of children under 18 in 2000 (to calculate weighted summary statistics)*
count_pooled	Count of all children	72,451
count_white	Count of White children	72,451
count_black	Count of Black children	72,451
count_asian	Count of Asian children	72,451
count_hisp	Count of Hispanic children	72,451
count_natam	Count of Native American children	72,451