Master Schedule Creation

Date: 31 October 2019

Subject: Customer Qualitative Forecast.

Ms. Amanda Jones,

This memo is written to summarize the results of the forecasting activities done on the basis of the given data for the Jones Company. The explanation and the summary of the forecast is supported by an excel worksheet that is attached with the report which includes all the calculations of the forecasting activities. In this memo, the calculation and the logics are explained in a short summary.

As five years demand data was available the next two years forecast was calculated on the basis of that data using a qualitative approach. The calculations were done using some assumptions. These assumptions are the following:

It is assumed that the average of the opinions of the experts is equal to the results that are achieved from the quantitative forecasting and hence the outcome is considered as the overall forecasting results. In actual Executive Opinions Qualitative-Forecasting, the opinions of the experts are taken and then average is calculated but in this case the experts opinion is not available hence the average opinion is assumed as it matches the results and modification of the results from the quantitative results of the forecasting.

The Linear regression forecast for the next 24 month is given in the second sheet in the attached excel file. The calculations were done on the basis of the following formula.

Forecasted demand = a + bx.

Forecasting error was calculated using the following formula:

Forecasting error = Actual demand – Forecasted demand

RSFE = Initial forecast error + precedence forecast error

MAD was calculated using the following formula:

MAD =

Tracking signals was calculated on the basis of the following formula:

The calculations of the signal tracking show that the value of the signal tracking is between ± 3.75 and it the control limit. The result shows that the forecasting was done properly and is accurate. There is no indication that the forecasting is done on some biased assumptions. As the given accepted forecasting is 1.5, which is in the control limit of the results of signal tracking so there is no need to recalculate or update the demand forecast for the X52.

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