2 presidency
GHOST HAM
Presidency5--RiseoftheModernPresidency2CMedia.pptxThe President’s Informal Powers II
Technological and cultural change
Informal Powers and the Media
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Increasing importance of communication
What developments have made presidential rhetoric a more powerful tool for achieving policy goals?
The advances in mass media (especially TV)
Growing expectations for agenda-setting
Growth in nationalism
Changing campaign norms
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Theory: “Going Public”
This dynamic has led more recent presidents to push for their policy goals by what political scientist Sam Kernell calls “going public,” or making direct appeals to voters.
In some ways, the opposite of bargaining
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President speaks
Public opinion shifts
Congress changes position
Going Public: An Example
In 1981, Reagan’s budget/tax plans ran into opposition from the Democratic House (Senate was Republican).
“Went public”
Worked: enough Democrats in the House caved
President Reagan “Going Public”
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Limits of Going Public
Congress hates it (they get nothing)
Diminishing returns
Looks bad if you fail
Your position must be “latently popular,” important to public
You must be popular
You may have to promise the moon
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Recent Example: Trump and the Wall
Trump gave an Oval Office address on funding for border wall, January 9th, 2019.
While the speech was popular, with viewers, it did not change many minds.
Going Public was easier with fewer entertainment choices
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Going Public was easier with fewer entertainment choices, 2
Today, many, many things to do rather than watch non-cable television.
Finally, absent true crises (e.g. 9/11), people likely to watch presidential address are high information, and more partisan
Or: those who are watching are least likely to change their opinion
Bottom line: going public is a limited tool
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Summing up Neustadt and Kernell
In Neustadt’s theory, presidents must be politically skilled to be powerful (good at negotiating)
Kernell’s theory adds that presidents who communicate well can also be more powerful.
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