Assignment

The Middle East Shatterbelt Northern Africa and Southwestern Asia

The Middle East Shatterbelt

• The Middle East is a shatterbelt, rent by the deep divisions within and between its sovereign states and peoples and further magnified by great power competition. Internal divisions are deep and widespread. When some rifts are healed, others open up to keep the region in turmoil.

• Sunni and Shia Muslims, Jews, and Christians; Arabs, Turks, and Persians; Azeris, Kurds, and Druze; Uzbeks, Tajiks, and Pashtuns; Alawites and Maronites; Nilotic blacks and Sudanese Arabs; Bedouins and farmers; religious fundamentalists and secularists– all are part of the human landscape of the Middle East.

The Middle East

• The ethnic, religious, and racial strife engendered by these schisms is further intensified by disputes over scare commodities of water and arable land and conflicting claims over oil and natural gas resources.

• The “Arab Spring” of December 2010 has not brought peace and democracy to the region. Instead, the dictatorships that were toppled were replaced by regimes that were fragmented and chaotic, especially in Egypt, Libya, and Syria, followed by the rise of ISIS.

• The location of the Middle East at the junction of the Old World’s three continents has long given global strategic importance to its water and land transit ways. These transit ways, as well as the vast petroleum and natural gas reserves of the region, are the magnets that now draw outside powers to the region.

The Middle East– Global Significance

• Following a medieval history of trading connections across Asia, eastern Africa, and the Indian Ocean, Europeans monopolized the region’s extension of trade and political dominance from the 1800s.

• The discovery of oil and the founding of new countries after World War I brought the region into world prominence again. Its significance affected World War II strategies and grew with a huge postwar rise in the demand for oil. Wars between the Arab countries and Israel, and the Cold War rivalry between the United States and the Soviet Union, added to that significance.

Middle East– Pan-Arabism

• In the mid and late 1900s, post independence movements, generally opposed to Western economic colonialism, sought to unite Arab peoples on the basis of (mostly secular) nationalism into a single country with increased world influence. None succeeded in uniting the Arab world, through their efforts are noteworthy.

• The Arab League was created in 1945 to encourage the united opposition of Arab countries to the establishment of Israel. Its seven founding members were the only independent Arab countries at the time, but its membership increased to 21 as more gained independence. The members of the Arab League eventually included the Palestinian Liberation Organization, a political umbrella for many smaller groups that demand a country for the Palestinians.

Middle East

• As the moves toward unification of Arab countries died away, links through the Islamic religion began to replace them. In 1970 foreign ministers of Muslim countries set up the Organization of the Islamic Conference (OIC), which now has 45 members, including such countries as Pakistan, Indonesia, and Nigeria. One of the OIC’s most important affiliates is the Islamic Development Bank, which is dedicated to economic development among OIC members.

Middle East-- OPEC

• From the early 1900s, international oil companies kept oil prices low to consumers in the world’s wealthiest countries by paying little to the producing countries. In 1960 the producers around the Persian Gulf, together with Venezuela, formed the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). OPEC’s main purpose is to work as a cartel– an organization that coordinates the interests of producing countries by regulating oil prices.

• The top 5 counties in the Middle east with the most known oil reserves are Saudi Arabia, Iran, Iraq, UAE, and Kuwait

Middle East– Water Politics

• Much attention is given to oil, but the issue of water is crucial in this arid region of the world. Like oil, however, water is not evenly distributed. Eighty percent of the region’s fresh water is found in the Nile and the Tigris-Euphrates River basins. The Jordan River, through much smaller, is crucial to countries that depend on it.

• Conflict may increase as fresh water scarcity is becoming more of an issue as populations grow rapidly. Between 1975 and 2020, the amount of fresh water available to each individual dropped by more than half.

Sub-regions– North Africa

• The four countries of North Africa are Algeria, Libya, Morocco, and Tunisia.

• Over 80% of Algeria’s and Libya’s territories are desert, but Morocco and Tunisia do not extend so far into the arid Saharan environment

• The northern parts of Morocco, Algeria, and Tunisia are dominated by the Atlas Mountains, and that area is known as the Maghreb

• North Africa faces Europe across the Mediterranean Sea. Many of its past political ties and present economic links are northward to Spain, France, and Italy.

Government in North Africa

• Politics of Algeria takes place in a framework of a constitutional presidential republic, whereby the President of Algeria is the head of state and the Prime Minister of Algeria is the head of government.

• Algeria has been called a “controlled democracy”, or a state where the military and “a select group” of unelected civilians – reportedly known to Algerians as “le pouvoir” (“the power”) – make major decisions, such as who should be president.

• President of Algeria was Abdelaziz Boutefilka, whose has been in office since April 27, 1999 but resigned on April 2, 2019. On December 12, 2019 Abdelmadjib Tebboune was appointed President after taking 58% of the vote in the presidential election.

Government in Libya

• Libya is a mostly desert and oil-rich country with an ancient history, has more recently been known for the 42 year rule of Colonel Muammar Gaddafi and the chaos that followed his departure.

• Libya was under foreign rule for centuries until it gained independence in 1951. Soon after oil was discovered and earned the country immense wealth.

• Colonel Gaddafi seized power in 1969 and ruled for four decades until he was toppled in 2011 following an armed rebellion assisted by Western military intervention.

• In recent years the country has been a key springboard for migrants heading to Europe.

Government in Libya

• The toppling of Gaddafi led to a power vacuum and instability, with no authority in full control

• The National Transitional Council, a rebel leadership council which had fought to oust the Gaddafi government, declared Libya “liberated” in October 2011 and took over running the country

• In August 2012 the NTC handed power to the General National Congress, an elected parliament which went on to select an interim head of state.

• Abdul Hamid Dbeibeh was selected as Prime Minister on February 5, 2021.

Politics of Morocco

• Politics of Morocco take place in a framework of a parliamentary constitutional monarchy, whereby the Prime Minister of Morocco is the head of government, and of a multi-party system.

• On June 17, 2011 King Mohammed VI announced a series of reforms that would transform Morocco into a constitutional monarchy.

• King Mohammed VI has been the head of state since July 23, 1999. The Prime Minister of Morocco is Saad-Eddine El Othmani since March 17, 2017.

Politics of Tunisia

• Tunisia is a democratic constitutional republic, with a President serving as head of state, Prime Minister as head of government, a unicameral legislature and a court system influenced by French civil law. The president is Beji Caid Essebsi and the Prime Minister is Habib Essid

• Between 1956 and 2011, Tunisia operated as a defacto single party state, with politics dominated by the secular Constitutional Democratic Rally, under former Presidents Habib Bourgiba and then Zine el Abidine Ben Ali. In 2011, an uprising led to the ouster of the president and the dismantling of the RCD. October 2014 saw the first democratic elections since the 2011 revolution resulting in a win by the secularist Nidaa Tounes party with 85 seats in the 217 – member assembly.

Nile River Valley

• Egypt and Sudan share some similarities, but their geographic positions, political environments, and products provide contrasts. Egypt is the largest Arab country by population and one of the foremost in international relations. It retains control of the Suez Canal. It also controls the Sinai Peninsula, which is the land route from Africa into Southwestern Asia. By contrast, Sudan has twice the area of Egypt but only half the population.

Politics in Egypt

• The year 1952 marked a turning point in Egypt’s modern history. After centuries of Ottoman and then British domination, Egypt exercised its full independence and became a socialist state with new priorities focused on its own internal needs.

• From 1952 to 2011 Egypt was politically dominated by three men. President Gamel Abdul Nasser was president from 1952 to his death in 1970. His successor, Anwar Sadat, was president from 1970 till his assassination in 1981. His successor., Hosni Murbarek was president from the death of Sadat till he was ousted in the 2011 “Arab Spring.”

Politics of Egypt

• The politics of Egypt is based on republicanism, with a semi- presidential system of government.

• Following the Egyptian Revolution of 2011, and the resignation of President Hosni Murbarek, executive power was assumed by the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces, which dissolved the parliament and suspended the constitution. In 2012, Mohammed Morsi was elected Egypt’s fifth president but was deposed by army chief General Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, who was subsequently elected as Egypt’s sixth president in 2014.

Politics in Sudan

• Officially, the politics of Sudan takes place in the framework of a presidential representative democratic republic, where the President of Sudan is the Head of State, Head of Government, and Commander- in- Chief of the Sudanese Armed Forces in a multi-party state. Legislative power is vested in both the government and in the two chambers, the National Assembly (lower) and the Council of States (upper), of the bicarmel National Legislature. The judiciary is independent. However, following a deadly civil war and the ongoing genocide in Darfur, Sudan is widely recognized as an authoritarian state where all effective political power is obtained by President Omar al-Bashir and the ruling National Congress Party.

South Sudan

• The Republic of South Sudan is the world’s youngest nation. It is the 193rd member of the United Nations and the 54th member of the African Union. The country gained independence on July 9, 2011 following a self determination referendum in which citizens overwhelmingly voted for total autonomy from the then Sudan. The referendum, conducted in January 2011, was one of the provisions of the Comphrehensive Peace agreement signed in 2005. The CPA ended one of Africa’s longest civil wars in which many lives were lost.

Arab Southwest Asia

• Arab Southwest Asia is the heart of the Arab and Islamic worlds. It comprises the Arabian Peninsula and the Fertile Crescent that incudes the Tigris- Euphrates River basin and the Lebanon coast. The world centers of Islam that are Muslim pilgrimage sites are located in the Arabian Peninsula at Mecca, where Mohammed was born in A.D. 570, and at Medina, which became his power base after he was expelled from Mecca. Despite having few people, the countries of this sub- region play a major part in world affairs because of their oil wealth and involvement in the Arab- Israeli peace process.

Politics in Israel

• Elections for the 24th Knesset were held in Israel on March 23, 2021. The incumbent Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu of Likud, declared victory in the election with Likud picking up the highest number of votes with 24.2% of the vote and 30 seats in the Knesset. From 2015 till the election the previous government was a coalition of his Likud party along with the Jewish Home, United Torah Judaism, Kulanu, and Shas, with the bare minimum 61 seats. After this years vote is finalized he will have 42 days (6 weeks) to form a new coalition government.

Politics in Israel

• The following are the largest political parties represented in the 120 seat Knesset after the March 23, 2021 vote:

• Likud 30, Yesh Atid 17, Shas 9,Blue and White 8, Yamina 7, Labor 7, United Torah Judaism 7, Yisrael Beiteinu 7, Religious Zionists 6, Joint List 6, New Hope 6, Meretz 6, Ra’am 4.

• The 120 seats in the Knesset are elected by proportional representation in a single nationwide constituency. The electoral threshold for the 2021 elections was 3.25%.

Turkey

• Politics in Turkey takes place in a framework of a strictly secular parliamentary representative democratic republic, whereby the Prime Minister of Turkey is the head of government, and of a multi-party system. The President of Turkey is the head of state who holds a largely ceremonial role but with substantial reserve powers.

• Turkey’s political system is based on a separation of powers. Executive power is exercised by the Council of Ministers. Legislative power is vested in the Grand National Assembly of Turkey. The judiciary is independent of the executive and the legislature. Popularity of political leaders has an independent effect on party preference and Turkish politics.

Turkey

• Turkey is a parliamentary democracy with a multi-party system. Major parties are defined as political parties that received more than 10% of the votes in the latest general election and/or represented in parliament.

• The largest political parties in Turkey are: • Justice and Development Party 317 MPs, center-right, right wing • Republican People’s Party 134 MPs, center-left • Nationalist Movement Party 40 MPs, Far-right • People’s Democratic Party 59 MPs, Left-wing

Turkey

• The President of Turkey is the head of state of the Republic of Turkey. The Presidency is largely a ceremonial office but has some important functions. In this capacity, the President represents the Republic of turkey, and the unity of the Turkish nation, as well as ensuring the implementation of the Constitution of Turkey.

• The office of the President of Turkey was established with the proclamation of the Republic of Turkey on October 29, 1923.

• The current office holder is the 12th President, Recep Tayyip Erdogan who has been president since August 28, 2014.

Turkey

• The Prime Minister of Turkey is the head of government of Turkey. The prime minister is the leader of a political coalition in the Turkish parliament and the leader of the cabinet.

• Ahmet Davutoglu was chosen to be the country’s prime minister in August 2014, replacing Recep Tayyip Erdogan who was to become President of Turkey on August 28, 2014.

Iran

• The politics of Iran take place in a framework of a theocracy in a format of Syncretic politics that is guided by an Islamist ideology. The December 1979 constitution, and its 1989 amendment, define the political, economic, and social order of the Islamic Republic of Iran, declaring that Shia Islam of the Twelver school of thought is Iran’s official religion.

• Iran has an elected president, parliament (or Majlis), “Assembly of Experts” (which elects the supreme Leader) , and local councils. According to the constitution all candidates running for these positions must be vetted by the Guardian Council before being elected. In addition, there are representatives elected to “protect the state’s Islamic character”.

Iran

• The most powerful political office in the Islamic Republic is that of the Supreme Leader, of which there have been two: the founder of the Republic, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, and his successor, Ali Khamenei. The Supreme Leader is appointed and supervised by Assembly of Experts. The Assembly of Experts is a publicly elected body, given that the right to stand as a candidate is severely limited by the Guardian Council consisting of six clerics appointed by the Supreme Leader.

• The Supreme Leader is the Head of state with some Executive powers related to Defense, Religious Affairs, and Guardian Council.

Iran

• The Constitution defines the President as the highest state authority after the supreme Leader. The President is elected by universal suffrage, by those 18 years or older, for a term of 4 years. Presidential candidates must be approved by the Council of Guardians prior to running. After being elected, the president must be appointed by the Supreme Leader.

• Hassan Rouhani is the seventh President of Iran, in office since 2013. He is also a former lawmaker, academic and former diplomat. He has been a member of Iran’s Assembly of experts since 1999. The next presidential election is scheduled for June 18, 2021.