| TRA4721 Global Supply Chain Class Project |
| Forecast future growth of Port of Miami Container Terminal |
| Conclusion on line 95. |
| In the above chart, the most pessimistic forecast has 2020 at 1,100,000 climbing to 1,800,000 by 2035 a yearly increase of about 4% |
| Next task: obtain the forecast report that contains the explanation for such forecasts. |
| Was the report audited by independent 3PL consultants? Who are John Martin Associates? Is there something we do not know that is coming on line? |
| From the Annual Reports Available Online |
| Total TEUs handled |
| Port | 2000 | 2001 | 2002 | 2003 | 2004 | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | | 16 year | | | 21 year |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Growth | Yearly | | Growth | Yearly |
| Miami | 805,000 | 880,000 | 890,000 | 1,100,000 | 1,000,000 | 1,200,000 | 990,000 | 850,000 | 800,000 | 807,000 | 847,000 | 907,000 | 909,000 | 901,000 | 877,000 | 1,008,000 | 1,028,000 | 1,024,000 | 1,063,000 | 1,120,913 | 1,066,738 | | -11% | -0.7% | | 33% | 1.5% |
| Everglades | | | | | | 797,238 | 864,030 | 948,680 | 985,095 | 796,160 | 793,227 | 880,999 | 923,600 | 927,572 | 1,013,344 | 1,060,507 | 1,037,226 | 1,076,912 | 1,108,465 | 1,053,078 | 945,512 | | 19% | 1.2% |
| Jacksonville | | | | 692,422 | 727,660 | 777,318 | 768,239 | 710,073 | 697,000 | 755,000 | 826,580 | 900,433 | 923,660 | 926,810 | 936,972 | 915,292 | 968,279 | 1,076,912 | 1,270,480 | 1,333,429 | 1,277,161 | | 64% | 4.0% |
| Savannah | | | | 1,521,819 | 1,663,122 | 1,901,506 | 2,160,196 | 2,604,310 | 2,616,125 | 2,356,511 | 2,825,178 | 2,944,681 | 2,966,213 | 3,033,727 | 3,346,048 | 3,373,427 | 3,644,519 | 4,046,212 | 4,351,975 | 4,559,172 | 4,682,255 | | 146% | 9.1% |
| 3 year moving average | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 13 year | Yearly | | Fit test |
| Miami | | | | | | | | | 1,013,333 | 880,000 | 819,000 | 818,000 | 853,667 | 887,667 | 905,667 | 895,667 | 928,667 | 971,000 | 1,020,000 | 1,038,333 | 1,069,304 | | 6% | 0.42% | | 0.60 |
| Everglades | | | | | | | | | 869,983 | 932,602 | 909,978 | 858,161 | 823,462 | 865,942 | 910,724 | 954,839 | 1,000,474 | 1,037,026 | 1,058,215 | 1,074,201 | 1,079,485 | | 24% | 1.85% | | 0.55 |
| Jacksonville | | | | | | | | | 751,877 | 725,104 | 720,691 | 759,527 | 827,338 | 883,558 | 916,968 | 929,147 | 926,358 | 940,181 | 986,828 | 1,105,224 | 1,226,940 | | 63% | 4.86% | | 0.89 |
| Savannah | | | | | | | | | 2,222,004 | 2,460,210 | 2,525,649 | 2,599,271 | 2,708,790 | 2,912,024 | 2,981,540 | 3,115,329 | 3,251,067 | 3,454,665 | 3,688,053 | 4,014,235 | 4,319,120 | | 94% | 7.26% | | 0.98 |
| Exponential smoothing alpha coefficient: | | | 0.02 | Change alpha to what-if | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 16 year | Yearly |
| Miami | | | | | | 1,200,000 | 1,200,000 | 994,200 | 852,884 | 801,058 | 806,881 | 846,198 | 905,784 | 908,936 | 901,159 | 877,483 | 1,005,390 | 1,027,548 | 1,024,071 | 1,062,221 | 1,119,739 | | -7% | -0.4% | | 0.79 |
| Everglades | | | | | | 797,238 | 797,238 | 862,694 | 946,960 | 984,332 | 799,923 | 793,361 | 879,246 | 922,713 | 927,475 | 1,011,627 | 1,059,529 | 1,037,672 | 1,076,127 | 1,107,818 | 1,054,173 | | 32% | 2.0% | | 0.76 |
| Jacksonville | | | | | | 777,318 | 777,318 | 768,421 | 711,240 | 697,285 | 753,846 | 825,125 | 898,927 | 923,165 | 926,737 | 936,767 | 915,722 | 967,228 | 1,074,718 | 1,266,565 | 1,332,092 | | 71% | 4.5% | | 0.95 |
| Savannah | | | | | | 1,901,506 | 1,901,506 | 2,155,022 | 2,595,324 | 2,615,709 | 2,361,695 | 2,815,908 | 2,942,106 | 2,965,731 | 3,032,367 | 3,339,774 | 3,372,754 | 3,639,084 | 4,038,069 | 4,345,697 | 4,554,902 | | 140% | 8.7% | | 0.97 |
| Whether actual TEUs or forecast TEUs are used, the growth rates presented in columns X and Y indicate: |
| Savannah has six times the growth rate of Miami. Jacksonville, twice Miami's growth rate. |
| What is going on in Savannah? Container growth from where? The big boats stop there? |
| What is going on in Jacksonville? Where is its growth coming from? |
| As another point of comparison, consider various growth rates for the Miami economy say 1%, 2%, 3%, 4% a year over 10 years and 20 years. |
| Then assume that most of that growth will come from growth in services rather than manufacturing, mining, farming etc. that produce products |
| and containers full of products (TEUs). |
| So a growth rate of the overall Miami economy of 3% probably means that the service companies and industries are growing at 4% and the |
| companies that receive or ship containers are growing at 2%, a 2% overall growth rate means services are growing at 2.5% and the companies |
| that receive and send containers through the port are growing at 1.5%. Based on this logic here is a table of the growth rates for the Miami |
| economy and the growth in TEU shipping: |
| Yearly Average Economic Growth | | | | | | | Net growth in TEUs handled |
| Miami | | Services | | Products shipped | | | 10yrs | 20yrs |
| Growth | | Growth | | Business growth |
| 1.00% | | 1.25% | | 0.75% | | | 8% | 16% |
| 2.00% | | 2.50% | | 1.50% | | | 16% | 35% |
| 3.00% | | 3.75% | | 2.25% | | | 28% | 56% |
| 4.00% | | 5.00% | | 3.00% | | | 34% | 81% |
| What new exceptional business growth possibilities are there that will use the Miami container port? |
| Any in any plans - City Plan, County Plan? |
| Any announcement of a new supply-chain service where container is dropped at Port of Miami and shipped up the coast by rail or road to destinations beyond Florida? |
| We think the growth in this business is very unlikely because of the inherent cost per mile difference between ship and rail and road. |
| Impact of the Panama Canal |
| The new Panama Canal Transshipping Port will take some transhipping business away from PoM. |
| Worth noting that Port Everglades does more TEU business with Caribbean than Port Miami. |
| Will reduce all growth in transshipping into Caribbean. About 30% of current Miami TEUs (Caribbean and Central America will not grow, may even fall). |
| Thus the forecasts will have to be moderated by this lack of growth. |
| Then (within 10-20 years) there is the question of a Northwest Passage that reduces travel time and distance between Shanghai and East Coast significantly. |
| Ask Maersk about this in their long-term planning. |
| Investments in Rail |
| New trans loading facility (trucks to train) in old railway marshalling yards close to Miami Airport. |
| But is this for containers coming from Port or coming from local Miami businesses? |
| FECR just been sold to Mexican GMXT - does this mean a land route connection with Mexico? |
| Is the rail connecting Port to FECR rail yards and network going to increase rail transshipping North? |
| Comparative cost of shipping by rail compared to shipping by boat? By truck? |
| Has FECR invested more in Port Everglades marshalling yards? |
| Any evidence of a new shipper who is unloading from ship to rail in Port Miami? |
| DOT Information |
| What is needed is 2000-2019 Container traffic counts for year on I95 between Miami and Ft Lauderdale and North of Ft Lauderdale. |
| How has it increased on I95 over last 20 years? What is the limit in the judgement of the DOT? |
| Conclusion |
| We do not see a growth rate of 3% plus in TEU Port of Miami traffic |
| We see a growth rate of around 1-2% as most likely. |
| We do not see any dramatic TEU traffic growth as a result of new industry or cross modality alliances. Are we missing something? |
| April 5 2021 |
| Professor Peter Dickson |
| The following students contributed to the project: |
| Joel De La Rosa |
| Frank Dome |
| Katelyn Estay |
| Hector Fernandez Karow |
| Adrian Fontane |
| Luis Francisco |
| America Garcia Tejeda |
| Gissarova, Kamilyam |
| Grassi, Giorgio |
| Hernandez, Anay |
| Isaac Lara, Victor |
| Tania Jarquin |
| Jonaton Jeanty |
| Andre Jennings |
| Rafael Martinez |
| Alyssa Mund |
| Alvaro Quiroz Fuentealba |
| Aleksandre Ramiz-Velasquez |
| Isabella Randazzo |
| Victor Rios |
| William Rodriguez |
| Veronica Rueda Padron |
| Bruna Sayao |
| Valentina Simmonds |
| Tallon Taliaferro |
| Marcos Troconis |
| Asia Williamson |
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PORTOFMIAMI.xlsx
