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Politics of public opinion

How much attention should policymakers pay to opinion polls? Henry Ford famously said "If I had asked people what they wanted, they would have said 'faster horses.'" We elect representatives not simply to do what they're told, but to exercise their judgment.

On the other hand, they are there to represent us, and that means - at least to some extent - doing what their constituents want. As famous pollster George Galllup said, "When a president or any other political leader pays attention to poll results, he is, in effect, paying attention to the views of the people. Any other interpretation is nonsense."

President Bill Clinton was well known for paying close attention to opinion polls before saying or doing anything. His successor, George W. Bush, was equally famous for ignoring them. My view: Presidents and policy makers have access to information and analysis that we don't. I feel better about them relying on that than the opinion of the guy ahead of me in line at Whataburger when making complex foreign policy decisions. I think that makes me an elitist, but I can live with that.

What do you think? For your assignment this week, find an opinion poll about any public policy matter published within the last two months. Write a 2 - 5 page essay explaining..

1 What questions were asked and how were they worded?

2. What was the poll's sample and universe? ("Sample" is who they asked. "Universe" is the total group the sample is meant to represent)

3. What were the results?

4. Who paid for the poll? Who conducted it? Does that matter?

5. What polling errors might have affected its accuracy or usefulness?

6. What, if anything, should policymakers do differently as a result of this poll?

(Hint: "...about any public policy matter..." means don't pick a "for whom do you plan to vote?" poll. Find one about an issue, not an election.)

Cite your sources.

Additional Resources

Here's a great place to look for polls: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/

And another: http://www.gallup.com/home.aspx

And another: http://www.pollingreport.com/

And another: http://www.cbsnews.com/feature/cbs-news-polls/

And another: https://poll.qu.edu/

Here's some background on polling: http://ropercenter.cornell.edu/support/polling-fundamentals/

Here's a good article on how to interpret poll results: https://cicerogroup.com/a-consumers-guide-to-interpreting-poll-results/