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Policy Analysis Workbook
Overview
	▪ This workbook is designed to support you in the policy analysis process. ▪ Work through the worksheets one by one, filling in the light green cells. ▪ Since the Bardach framework is meant to be iterative, you may need to return to some worksheets as you go through the process.
Legend
	Cells with data/information	Cells with tips and	Cells for you to enter
	from earlier sheets	guiding questions	information and notes
Policy Analysis Model
	NOTE: This workbook was developed for API-505m at Harvard Kennedy School, by Christopher Robert, Teresa Conrad, Mary Jo Bane, Suzanne Cooper, Jack Donahue, Dan Levy, Lara Rosner, Laura Diaz Anadon, and other student and faculty contributors.

1. Problem

Policy Analysis Workbook
Step 1: Define the Problem
Key Questions		Your Client	Policy Analysis Model
	▪ What is the trigger for this policy analysis? ▪ What problem is it that requires a policy response? ▪ Who is the client for whom you will conduct the analysis?
1. Brainstorm problem elements		Elements of the Problem
	▪ List any aspects of the problem that come to mind. ▪ Think, for example, in terms of: - deficit or excess ("too much/many" or "too little/few") - market failure (externalities, market power imbalances, information asymmetry, moral hazard, adverse selection, etc.) ▪ Identify the relevant sub-problems. I.e., diagnose conditions that cause or adversely influence the bigger decision problem (problem driver/lever).	Element 1
		Element 2
		Element 3
		Etc.
2. Define the problem		Concise Problem Definition	ILLUSTRATION: Scoping your Problem
	▪ Now write a single, concise problem definition (that implicitly incapsulates the identified problem elements). ▪ Be as specific as possible. Make sure you focus on the right problem! ▪ Don't confuse problem elements, symptoms, or side effects with the actual decision problem. ▪ Make sure you do not define the "solution" into the problem by too narrowly focusing on only one or too few problem elements. Set the scope right! ▪ Make sure your problem focus and scope is sufficiently comprehensive and manageable at the same time. ▪ Most problems are in one way or another linked to other, often higher-order challenges - don't let yourself get overwhelmed with goals that would go beyond what is possible in the current policy-analysis context. See illustration on the right: Scoping your Problem.	There is this problem and it has these very specific characteristics.
		Iterate!
		Don't be reluctant to regularly re-examine your problem definition along the path of your policy analysis! Also: Discuss your problem definition with others, most notably those who will be involved in the final decision-making, as well as other important stakeholders of the problem.
Optional notes and footnotes

2. Evidence

Policy Analysis Workbook
Step 2: Assemble Evidence
Key Questions					ILLUSTRATION : Policy Analysis Model
	▪ What do I need to know to better understand the problem? In particular to: - substantiate my problem definition (e.g., adding a quantitative element)? - better understand my client, his/her values, and the political and operational environments within which my client operates? - identify promising levers to address/solve the problem?
Elements of the Problem*			Problem Definition*
Element 1			There is this problem and it has these very specific characteristics.
Element 2
Element 3
Etc.







* from earlier sheet
1. Based on your problem definition and the problem's elements: What do you need to know to better understand and solve the problem?					THINK before you collect!
					Always consider: Collecting and assembling evidence can be costly. At each stage, prioritize your efforts and ensure that the benefit of the evidence exceeds the cost of getting it. Potential sources of evidence: ▪ Review available literature ▪ Survey "best practices" ▪ Look out for potential analogies from other policy fields/sectors/geographies.
What?		How/through whom?		Cost-Benefit OK?
Optional notes and footnotes

3. Alternatives

Policy Analysis Workbook

Step 3: Construct the Alternatives

Key Questions

What policy options or alternative strategies of intervention are there to solve or mitigate the problem?

Policy Analysis Model

1. Brainstorm a list of all thinkable alternative courses of action to tackle the policy problem

Alternatives: Long List of Candidates

▪ Be as comprehensive as possible ▪ Keep your client's needs, values, and operational capacity in mind as you go through this process ▪ Don't worry about overlaps between candidates, or about alternatives that might be combined ▪ Don't forget the status quo or doing nothing: that is almost always an alternative to consider ▪ Refer back to the problem and the problem elements to identify possible "intervention points"

Status quo

Alternative 1

Alternative 2

Alternative 3

Etc.

For this exercise – of brainstorming policy alternatives to achieve a desired impact (or: solution to your policy problem) – the backward-mapping approach might be of great help.

2. Prioritize, conceptualize and simplify the long list of candidates

Alternatives: Short List of Candidates

Short Names (for table headers)

▪ Choose a final list of alternatives that you think are most important to assess - try to narrow the list to 3-5 ▪ If you drew on backward-mapping (3.b), consult the list below ▪ Be as specific and concise as possible, simplifying alternative descriptions as much as possible ▪ Also, give each alternative a short name for grids in later worksheets ▪ Never hesitate to go back to (2) and gather some more evidence on what might work: pilot studies, (inter-)national best practices, experiments, etc.

Results from backward-mapping exercise

Optional notes and footnotes

Go to backward-mapping worksheet

/xl/drawings/drawing4.xml#'3.b%20Backward-mapping'!A1

4. Criteria

Policy Analysis Workbook
Step 4: Define the Criteria
Key Questions					Policy Analysis Model
	▪ By what criteria will you judge an alternative to be more or less successful?
Problem Definition*		Elements of the Problem*
There is this problem and it has these very specific characteristics.		Element 1
		Element 2
		Element 3
		Etc.







* from earlier sheet					ILLUSTRATION: Criteria categories
1. Brainstorm				Criteria - Long list
	▪ Brainstorm a list of possible candidates for the criteria by which you will judge alternative decisions as more or less successful. ▪ Just list everything that comes to your mind and that seems relevant for a "good" policy solution to your problem - don't worry yet about overlap, measurability, or implementability. ▪ Consider all different types of criteria that might be of relevance (see table to far right). ▪ If you used the backward-mapping worksheet to brainstorm alternatives, be sure to include criteria relevant to the desired outcomes listed there.
2. Finalize your list				Criteria - Short list	Criteria - Short names
	▪ Formulate your final set of evaluative criteria ▪ Make sure that your set of criteria is MECE (mutually exclusive, and collectively exhaustive), i.e.: → they don't overlap → taken together they cover everything that matters for the decision		A
			B
			C
			D
			E
	▪ Narrow down your list to 3-5 criteria ▪ Also, give each criterion a short name for grids on later sheets
Optional notes and footnotes

5. Outcomes

Policy Analysis Workbook
Step 5: Project the Outcomes
Key Questions
	▪ How will each alternative "perform" on each criterion?
	→ Use the below matrix to project the expected outcomes for each alternative with respect to each criterion. → You can use the "Notes" sheet to first gather your thoughts before aggregating your projections to fit the matrix (click arrow-shaped button on the right).
			Outcome Matrix
1. Estimates			Alternatives
	Qualitative ▪ Try to understand the causal relationship between an alternative and the criteria in question - start, for example, with simply indicating the direction of this cause-effect-relationship: Does alternative X increase or improve (↑), decrease or worsen (↓ ) criterion A, is its impact high, low, or medium, etc.? ▪ Apply different models for projecting outcomes if possible, and keep in mind that none of them will be a 1:1-representation of reality Quantitative ▪ Whenever possible, put a number on your projection (increase by how much? decrease by how much?). Though a single point estimate generally suffices, it is safer to provide a numerical range. Make use of break-even estimates and sensitivity analysis ▪ Increase the unassailability of your projection by - defining a break-even or threshold point (minimum level of policy effectiveness), - indicating the probability of each alternative to achieve or exceed this outcome/"break-even" level.		Criteria	D:



2. Consider uncertainties, alternative scenarios, and unintended consequences
	▪ Understand and summarize the key uncertainties regarding your outcomes. Few outcomes will be certain, and some outcomes may range widely. ▪ Avoid the"optimism trap" by writing different scenarios for your outcome projections, e.g. with "base scenario", an optimistic, and a pessimist scenario. ▪ Anticipate unintended consequences, e.g. moral hazard, adverse exploitation of policy regulations, overregulation, etc.

Tips for assessing certain outcome criteria
a. Testing for operational feasibility
		▪ For evaluating the operational feasibility of your alternatives it might be helpful to draw on the optional forward-mapping tool in this workbook.

b. Assessing economic efficiency
		▪ For assessing the economic dimension of efficiency it is in many cases helpful to conduct a Cost Benefit Analysis (CBA). An optional CBA worksheet in this workbook will help you to conduct such an analysis.
c. Assessing political feasibility
		▪ For assessing the political feasibility of different options it can be useful to conduct a Stakeholder Analysis. An optional worksheet in this workbook can help you to conduct such an analysis.
Optional notes and footnotes

Notes Sheet

/xl/drawings/drawing6.xml#'5.e%20Outcome_Notes'!A1

Go to forward-mapping worksheet

/xl/drawings/drawing6.xml#'5.b%20Forward-mapping'!A1

Go to CBA worksheet

/xl/drawings/drawing6.xml#'5.c%20Cost-Benefit%20Analysis'!A1

Go to Stakeholder Analysis worksheet

/xl/drawings/drawing6.xml#'5.d%20Stakeholder%20Analysis'!A1

6. Trade-offs

Policy Analysis Workbook

Step 6: Confront the Trade-offs

Key Questions

▪ What are the trade-offs between the alternatives and how should we deal with them?

1. Put weight behind your criteria

Criteria

"Weight"

2. Score your alternatives by criterion

▪ For each criterion, ask yourself how important it is in relation to the other criteria. ▪ Indicate each criterion's respective weight in the green weight cells to the right. You might distribute 100% across all criteria; indicate importance with *, **, or ***; indicate potential dealbreakers as DB; etc.

▪ For each criterion in turn, first assign a score of 10 to the best alternative according to that criterion, then assign a score of 1 to the worst alternative; then, consider each of the other alternatives and assign each of them a score between 1 and 10 (depending on where they fall between the best and worst alternatives). Assign scores to each alternative according to each criterion.

Alternative

Score

Alternative

Score

Alternative

Score

Alternative

Score

Alternative

Score

Criteria

ERROR:#REF!

Criteria

Optional notes and footnotes

7. Decide with even swaps

Policy Analysis Workbook

Step 7: Decide! - Even Swaps

Problem Definition

Client

There is this problem and it has these very specific characteristics.

1. Making your decision

▪ All of the information you have provided so far is summarized in the matrix to the right. – The highest scores for each criterion are highlighted green; the lowest are highlighted red (and the middle, yellow). ▪ Below, this worksheet will guide you through the process of eliminating dominated and practically dominated alternatives, first based merely on your scores, later by means of even swaps. – To execute even swaps, you will need to specify adjusted outcomes and scores in the green cells to the right; but, first ignore those green cells and walk through the steps below to see if even swaps are necessary.

Alternatives

Score

Criteria

Criterion 1: BLANK

Criterion 2: BLANK

Criterion 3: BLANK

Criterion 4: BLANK

Criterion 5: BLANK

2.a Determine dominance

▪ Based on the scores summarized above, the table to the right indicates cases where some alternatives are dominated by other alternatives (if any). ▪Remember: If one alternative dominates another it is better or equally good by all criteria. The "dominated alternative" can hence be removed from consideration.

yes

2.b Check for practical dominance

Alternatives

▪ All clearly dominated alternatives are greyed out in the table on the right. ▪ Now check for practical dominance between the remaining alternatives. ▪ If you consider one of the remaining alternatives practically dominated, select "yes" in the green framed box below the respective column.

Criteria

Criterion 1: BLANK

Criterion 2: BLANK

Criterion 3: BLANK

Criterion 4: BLANK

Criterion 5: BLANK

dominated

Practically dominated? >>

There are no remaining alternatives. Please enter some, or undo practical dominance.

Criterion 1

3. Make Even Swaps

Criterion 2

▪ If no single alternative dominates all others (practically or otherwise), then you will need to conduct a series of "even swaps" in order to work through the trade-offs and come to a decision: – Go back to Step 1 above and use the green cells to begin adjusting criteria and scores. – Your goal is to eliminate criteria one at a time, by adjusting alternatives' outcomes and scores so that they are equal across all alternatives. As you adjust a given alternative's outcome and score for a given criterion, you make counter-balancing adjustments to that alternative's outcome and score for another criterion. (See Smart Choices Chapter 6 for details.) – As you eliminate each criterion from consideration (by making all alternatives equal along that criterion), iterate back through step 2 to see if you have arrived at a single dominant alternative. If not, iterate back to step 1 to eliminate another criterion.

Criterion 3

Criterion 5

Optional notes and footnotes

Weight

8. Communicate

Policy Analysis Workbook
Step 8: Tell your Story
1	Determine your audience(s)	Potentially Useful Connections
	A. Who has an essential role in implementing your favored option?	Forward Mapping: "Capacity" component of strategic alignment
	B. Who provides essential resources or authorization?	Forward Mapping: "Support" component of strategic alignment
	C. Who is in a position to delay, hijack, or undercut your favored option?	Forward Mapping: "Support" and "Capacity" components of strategic alignment
	D. Who has significant influence over any of these constituencies?	Stakeholder Analysis
2	Analyze your audience(s) – for each significant category:
	A. What do they value? What do they fear?	Stakeholder Analysis
	B. Which aspects of your favored option are they currently inclined to support?	Criteria
		Stakeholder Analysis
	C. Which aspects of your favored option are they currently inclined to oppose?	Criteria
		Stakeholder Analysis
	D. What are the main conflicts among the interests and preferences of key audiences?	Stakeholder Analysis
3	Craft your message
	A. What good things will happen or bad things be avoided through your favored option?	Criteria
		Outcomes
		Cost-Benefit Analysis
	B. How will your favored option produce these desirable outcomes?	Outcomes
		Forward Mapping
	C. Why is your favored option superior to alternatives?	Alternatives
		Cost-benefit-anaylsis
		Trade-offs
		Evidence
4	Choose and use your medium	Stakeholder Analysis
	A. What is the right mix of memos, reports, press releases, video, social media, and so on?
	B. Can tailored versions of the message be deployed for different audiences?
	C. What words and images will most effectively convince your audience(s)?
	D. Is the communication effort one-time or ongoing?
5	Draw from available resources	Bob Behn, "The Craft of Memo Writing."
	Take advantage of these excellent resources from the Shorenstein Center.
		Christoper Stone, "Writing Policy Memos."
		Luciana Herman, "Policy Memos."
		J. Janelle Shubert, "A Primer on Preparing for Briefings."

http://shorensteincenter.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/07/Craft-of-Memo-Writing-2012.pdf http://shorensteincenter.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/07/Christopher-Stones-Memo-on-Memo-Writing.pdf http://shorensteincenter.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/07/HO_Herman_Policy-Memos_9_24_12.pdf http://isites.harvard.edu/fs/docs/icb.topic670229.files/Briefings%20Primer.pdf

3.b Backward-mapping

Policy Analysis Workbook

Step 3: Construct the Alternatives - Backward-mapping

1. Map the desired impact back to alternative courses of action

▪ To come up with a comprehensive list of alternative strategies that might help to solve or mitigate the policy problem, backward mapping of possible impact is often useful (see overview of basic impact logic illustrated on the right side). The basic idea is to work systematically backward from whatever impact is desired.

Activities

Guidelines

Alternative 1/ Input bundle 1

• Define the larger (social) impact you want to achieve by solving the policy problem at hand. • Specify the desired outcome(s) in terms of actions on the ground. • Ask what prior actions are necessary for or increase the odds of this action happening. • What policy or programmatic intervention could affect these actions? • Work backward, continuing to ask the same questions. • Stop after a reasonable period of time!

Source: Ebrahim & Rangan (2010). The limits of nonprofit impact. HBS Working Paper

Alternative 2/ Input bundle 2

Example:

Alternative 3/ Input bundle 3

Alternative 4/ Input bundle 4

Alternative 5/ Input bundle 5

2. Narrow down your long list of alternatives/Input bundles

Inputs/Input bundles (policies/actions) - Short List

• Which alternatives are clearly beyond the jurisdiction and/or interest of your client? •Which are on their face unlikely to be effective? •Which are on their face too costly for your client? •Are any on their face politically infeasible? •Are any on their face operationally infeasible? •Which seem the most promising on the basis of what you know now?

Back to Step 3: Construct the Alternatives

/xl/drawings/drawing10.xml#'3.%20Alternatives'!A1

Desired IMPACT

Desired OUTCOMES

OUTPUTS

ACTIVITIES

INPUTS

Back to Step 3: Construct the Alternatives

/xl/drawings/drawing10.xml#'3.%20Alternatives'!A1

5.b Forward-mapping

Policy Analysis Workbook

Step 5: Project the outcomes & Assess operational feasibility - Forward-mapping

Overview

1. Define the alternatives whose operational feasibility you want to test

▪ To think systematically about implementation - and operational feasibility as a key criterion for any policy analysis - forward-mapping can prove useful. ▪ Similar to the tool of backward-mapping, forward-mapping builds on the impact logic model. In this case, though, you work forward rather than backward.

▪ Since forward-mapping is a tool to help you narrow down your long-list of policy alternatives, first define up to five alternatives whose operational feasibility you wish to examine here. ▪ Note: This worksheet can help you to choose the short list of alternatives for your policy analysis (for worksheet 3), and/or it can help you to assess the operational feasibility of your chosen alternatives (for worksheet 5).

Enter short name and description for alternative 1:

Enter short name and description for alternative 2:

Enter short name and description for alternative 3:

Enter short name and description for alternative 4:

Enter short name and description for alternative 5:

Short name

Brief description

Source: Ebrahim & Rangan (2010). The limits of nonprofit impact. HBS Working Paper

2. Write down the narrative for each alternative

▪ Write down a narrative that describes all the behaviors that must be realized for the policy alternative to produce the desired outcome(s), and hence impact. ▪ To construct this narrative, for each alternative: – first think through each step of the logic model, making notes in the cells below, – then write the overall narrative, being as specific as possible about who, what, when, and why.

Alternative 1

Alternative 2

Alternative 3

Alternative 4

Alternative 5

Inputs?

Activities?

Outputs?

Outcomes?

Impacts?

Who What Why When

3. Check for plausibility

For each of the actors directly involved in the implementation of each alternative (mentioned above in the narrative): ▪ Is the hypothesized behavior consistent with personal and organizational interests? ▪ If not, what tactics could the actor use to avoid complying? ▪ What counter-tactics coud be used to induce or encourage compliance?

Alternative 1

Alternative 2

Alternative 3

Alternative 4

Alternative 5

Notes

4. Thinking of the direct and indirect effects of the policy, what other actors would have an incentive to become involved or to interfere with the needed behavior?

Thinking of other, less directly involved actors, who will still be affected by a specific alternative: ▪ How could these actors/other stakeholders interfere with hypothesized behaviors? Based on which personal and/or organizational interests? ▪ What tactics could be used to block or deflect interference?

Alternative 1

Alternative 2

Alternative 3

Alternative 4

Alternative 5

Notes

5. Rewrite the narrative to make it more plausible

Alternative 1

Alternative 2

Alternative 3

Alternative 4

Alternative 5

Preliminary narrative from step 2.

Revised narrative

6. Conclude accordingly

On the basis of this analysis: ▪ Reformulate your policy(ies)/alternatives (see '3. Alternatives' and '5. Outcomes') AND/OR ▪ Eliminate those policies that even on reformulation are operationally infeasible AND/OR ▪ Note in the outcomes matrix ('5. Outcomes') your assessment of operational feasibility for each remaining alternative

Back to Step 5: Project the Outcomes

/xl/drawings/drawing11.xml#'5.%20Outcomes'!A1

Back to Step 3: Construct the Alternatives

/xl/drawings/drawing11.xml#'3.%20Alternatives'!A1

Back to Step 5: Project the Outcomes

/xl/drawings/drawing11.xml#'5.%20Outcomes'!A1

5.c Cost-benefit analysis

Policy Analysis Workbook
Step 5: Project the Outcomes - Cost Benefit Analysis											Please note that you conduct one CBA for each alternative. Therefore, to conduct multiple CBAs – for multiple policy alternatives – copy this worksheet as many times as needed. (> right-click (PC) or Ctrl+click (Mac) on worksheet tab in worksheet bar > select 'Move or Copy' > select 'Create a copy' > click 'OK')
Overview - Analyzing Costs and Benefits
	▪ For assessing the efficiency of different alternatives, a structured Cost Benefit Analysis (CBA) is often useful. ▪ The pre-formatted cells below will help you to calculate the Net Present Value (NPV) for a policy option/alternative, which can then be entered into the outcome matrix in sheet '5. Outcomes'. ▪ In a CBA, you consider only those costs and benefits that can be expressed in monetary form. Please include all those costs and benefits that cannot be expressed in terms of $ in other criteria categories of the outcome matrix.
Alternative							<< Enter the name of the alternative for which you're conducting this CBA
1.a Project the cost for all years							1.b Specify the expected benefits for all years
	▪ Below, enter the expected costs for each year. ▪ If you like, you may re-label the year column to fit your case: these year labels will reappear throughout the worksheet. ▪ Feel free to split a given year's costs into multiple line-items. They will be summed up automatically. ▪ Have a look at the left part of the "Public Value Account" illustration on the right, which might prove helpful in thinking comprehensively about different kinds of costs.							▪ Below, enter the expected benefits for each year. ▪ Since many benefits may be difficult to be monetized this is likely to be harder than the specification of costs – however, feel free to also list benefit items, which you find important to include and just cannot monetize (inserting $0 for its "amount"). ▪ Have a look at the right part of the "Public Value Account" illustration on the right, which might prove helpful in thinking comprehensively about different kinds of benefits.
		Base Scenario
		Year	Costs				Year		Benefits
			For what?	How much?	Total costs				What kind of benefits?	What "amount"?		Total benefits
		1	Cost Item 1	$ 100.00	$ 176.00		1		"customer" friendliness	$ - 0		$ 276.00
			Cost Item 2	$ 44.00					Benefit Item 2	$ 88.00
			Cost Item 3	$ 32.00					process improvements	$ 188.00
									Benefit Item 4	$ - 0
		2	Cost Item 1	$ 90.00	$ 166.00		2		Benefit Item 1	$ - 0		$ 161.00
			Cost Item 2	$ 43.00					Benefit Item 2	$ 50.00
			Cost Item 3	$ 33.00					Benefit Item 3	$ 111.00
									Benefit Item 4
		3	Cost Item 1	$ 100.00	$ 176.00		3		Benefit Item 1	$ 333.00		$ 589.00
			Cost Item 2	$ 44.00					Benefit Item 2	$ 211.00
			Cost Item 3	$ 32.00					Benefit Item 3	$ 45.00
									Benefit Item 4
		4	Cost Item 1	$ 90.00	$ 166.00		4		Benefit Item 1	$ 56.00		$ 546.00
			Cost Item 2	$ 43.00					Benefit Item 2	$ 456.00
			Cost Item 3	$ 33.00					Benefit Item 3	$ 34.00
									Benefit Item 4
		5	Cost Item 1	$ 333.00	$ 556.00		5		Benefit Item 1	$ 12.00		$ 69.00
			Cost Item 2	$ 222.00					Benefit Item 2	$ 23.00
			Cost Item 3	$ 1.00					Benefit Item 3	$ 34.00
									Benefit Item 4
		6	Cost Item 1		$ - 0		6		Benefit Item 1			$ - 0
			Cost Item 2						Benefit Item 2
			Cost Item 3						Benefit Item 3
									Benefit Item 4
		7	Cost Item 1		$ - 0		7		Benefit Item 1			$ - 0
			Cost Item 2						Benefit Item 2
			Cost Item 3						Benefit Item 3
									Benefit Item 4
		8	Cost Item 1		$ - 0		8		Benefit Item 1			$ - 0
			Cost Item 2						Benefit Item 2
			Cost Item 3						Benefit Item 3
									Benefit Item 4
		9	Cost Item 1		$ - 0		9		Benefit Item 1			$ - 0
			Cost Item 2						Benefit Item 2
			Cost Item 3						Benefit Item 3
									Benefit Item 4
		10	Cost Item 1		$ - 0		10		Benefit Item 1			$ - 0
			Cost Item 2						Benefit Item 2
			Cost Item 3						Benefit Item 3
									Benefit Item 4
		11	Cost Item 1		$ - 0		11		Benefit Item 1			$ - 0
			Cost Item 2						Benefit Item 2
			Cost Item 3						Benefit Item 3
									Benefit Item 4
		12	Cost Item 1		$ - 0		12		Benefit Item 1			$ - 0
			Cost Item 2						Benefit Item 2
			Cost Item 3						Benefit Item 3
									Benefit Item 4
		13	Cost Item 1		$ - 0		13		Benefit Item 1			$ - 0
			Cost Item 2						Benefit Item 2
			Cost Item 3						Benefit Item 3
									Benefit Item 4
		14	Cost Item 1		$ - 0		14		Benefit Item 1			$ - 0
			Cost Item 2						Benefit Item 2
			Cost Item 3						Benefit Item 3
									Benefit Item 4
		15	Cost Item 1		$ - 0		15		Benefit Item 1			$ - 0
			Cost Item 2						Benefit Item 2
			Cost Item 3						Benefit Item 3
									Benefit Item 4
		16	Cost Item 1		$ - 0		16		Benefit Item 1			$ - 0
			Cost Item 2						Benefit Item 2
			Cost Item 3						Benefit Item 3
									Benefit Item 4
		17	Cost Item 1		$ - 0		17		Benefit Item 1			$ - 0
			Cost Item 2						Benefit Item 2
			Cost Item 3						Benefit Item 3
									Benefit Item 4
		18	Cost Item 1		$ - 0		18		Benefit Item 1			$ - 0
			Cost Item 2						Benefit Item 2
			Cost Item 3						Benefit Item 3
									Benefit Item 4
		19	Cost Item 1		$ - 0		19		Benefit Item 1			$ - 0
			Cost Item 2						Benefit Item 2
			Cost Item 3						Benefit Item 3
									Benefit Item 4
		20	Cost Item 1		$ - 0		20		Benefit Item 1			$ - 0
			Cost Item 2						Benefit Item 2
			Cost Item 3						Benefit Item 3
									Benefit Item 4
1.c Determine the Social Discount Rate
	▪ Determine the rate r to which the expected costs and benefits specified above should be discounted. ▪ Enter the "Social Discount Rate" (SDR) in absolute percentage terms. ▪ Please note that SDRs between 2 and 7% are most common. You should check whether there is a standard rate for the specific context of your policy analysis. To do that you might want to consult – the OMB Circular A-4 guidelines, which apply to U.S. regulations (where expenditures are imposed on non-government entities), – the OMB Circular A-94 guidelines, applying more broadly to U.S. government programs, both being available at http://www.whitehouse.gov/omb/circulars_default.										Social Discount Rate
											5.50%
1.d Summary/Overview (Base Scenario)
	▪ The table below summarizes the key information from above: Costs, benefits, the Net Present Value for each year of costs and benefits, and the total Net Present Value of the alternative. This will serve as the "base scenario," relative to which you may compare alternative scenarios below (for sensitivity analysis). ▪ In case you want to make changes to this base scenario, please do so in steps 1.a to 1.c, and the summary table below will change automatically.
	Year		Total Costs	Total Benefits	Net Present Value (by year)	Net Value (by year)	Year		Total Costs	Total Benefits		Net Present Value (by year)	Net Value (by year)
	1		$ 176.00	$ 276.00	$ 94.79	$ 100.00	11		$ - 0	$ - 0		$ - 0	$ - 0
	2		$ 166.00	$ 161.00	$ -4.49	$ -5.00	12		$ - 0	$ - 0		$ - 0	$ - 0
	3		$ 176.00	$ 589.00	$ 351.72	$ 413.00	13		$ - 0	$ - 0		$ - 0	$ - 0
	4		$ 166.00	$ 546.00	$ 306.74	$ 380.00	14		$ - 0	$ - 0		$ - 0	$ - 0
	5		$ 556.00	$ 69.00	$ -372.62	$ -487.00	15		$ - 0	$ - 0		$ - 0	$ - 0
	6		$ - 0	$ - 0	$ - 0	$ - 0	16		$ - 0	$ - 0		$ - 0	$ - 0
	7		$ - 0	$ - 0	$ - 0	$ - 0	17		$ - 0	$ - 0		$ - 0	$ - 0
	8		$ - 0	$ - 0	$ - 0	$ - 0	18		$ - 0	$ - 0		$ - 0	$ - 0
	9		$ - 0	$ - 0	$ - 0	$ - 0	19		$ - 0	$ - 0		$ - 0	$ - 0
	10		$ - 0	$ - 0	$ - 0	$ - 0	20		$ - 0	$ - 0		$ - 0	$ - 0
			Total Net Present Value of project/alternative under the base scenario								$ 376.13
2. Conduct a Sensitivity Analysis
	▪ The CBA above is based on certain estimates of costs and benefits as well as a certain Social Discount Rate. This is your "base scenario." ▪ In order to understand the sensitivity of the calculated NPV, it is useful to conduct a sensitivity analysis, i.e., to compare the results (Net Present Values) of Cost-Benefit Analyses with different assumptions about costs, benefits, and possibly the SDR. ▪ Below you may specify parameters for up to two alternative scenarios.
2.a Determine up to two alternative scenarios and their SDR deviation												Social Discount Rate
	▪ Determine up to two alternative scenarios with which you want to compare your base scenario. Label them accordingly in the dark green boxes in the table on the right (e.g., "budget-overrun case", "change-in-government case"). ▪ Then think about whether you want to assume the same SDR for both of your alternative scenarios or if you want to assume a different discount rate r to which future costs and benefits of the policy response (alternative) are discounted in these scenarios. – if you want to stick to the SDR from your base scenario, leave the cell blank. – if you want to override the SDR from your base scenario, enter another value into the respective cell on the right. Again, it might be useful to consult OMB Circular A-4, which discusses the use of alternative rates in sensitivity analysis (see 1.c above).										Base Scenario	5.50%
											Scenario A:	2.00%
									Name/Label scenario A >>
											Scenario B:	10.00%
									Name/Label scenario B >>
2.b Determine Costs and Benefits for your alternative Scenario A: You can label this scenario more specifically in step 2.a
	▪ Below, determine how far costs and benefits in this scenario differ from costs and benefits under the base scenario (displayed in the grey cells). If you want to override the cost or benefit value from the base scenario enter a different value into the green cell to the right. If you want to maintain the same cost or benefit value from the base scenario, just leave the respective green cell blank. ▪ In the last column of every year, the Present Value of the expected costs and benefits will be calculated for you. ▪ At the very bottom of the table, you will find the sum of all Present Values - the Net Present Value. At the bottom of this worksheet, you can see how the NPV's from the different scenarios compare.
		Scenario A: You can label this scenario more specifically in step 2.a
		Year	Costs				Net Value per year		Benefits					Net Present Value (by year)
			For what? - please make labeling changes in step 1.a (base scenario) only	How much? - Base Scenario	How much? - Enter value if different from Base Scenario	Total costs			What kind of benefits? - please make labeling changes in step 1.b (base scenario) only	What "amount"?		What "amount"? - Enter value if different from Base Scenario	Total benefits
		1	Cost Item 1	$ 100.00	$ 125.00	$ 212.00	$ 124.00		"customer" friendliness	$ - 0		$ 60.00	$ 336.00	$ 121.57
			Cost Item 2	$ 44.00	$ 55.00				Benefit Item 2	$ 88.00
			Cost Item 3	$ 32.00					process improvements	$ 188.00
									Benefit Item 4	$ - 0

		2	Cost Item 1	$ 90.00		$ 201.00	$ 59.00		Benefit Item 1	$ - 0		$ 100.00	$ 260.00	$ 56.71
			Cost Item 2	$ 43.00	$ 45.00				Benefit Item 2	$ 50.00		$ 55.00
			Cost Item 3	$ 33.00	$ 66.00				Benefit Item 3	$ 111.00		$ 105.00
									Benefit Item 4

		3	Cost Item 1	$ 100.00		$ 176.00	$ 413.00		Benefit Item 1	$ 333.00			$ 589.00	$ 389.18
			Cost Item 2	$ 44.00					Benefit Item 2	$ 211.00
			Cost Item 3	$ 32.00					Benefit Item 3	$ 45.00
									Benefit Item 4

		4	Cost Item 1	$ 90.00	$ 120.00	$ 220.00	$ 325.00		Benefit Item 1	$ 56.00		$ 55.00	$ 545.00	$ 300.25
			Cost Item 2	$ 43.00	$ 60.00				Benefit Item 2	$ 456.00
			Cost Item 3	$ 33.00	$ 40.00				Benefit Item 3	$ 34.00
									Benefit Item 4

		5	Cost Item 1	$ 333.00		$ 556.00	$ -464.00		Benefit Item 1	$ 12.00		$ 24.00	$ 92.00	$ -420.26
			Cost Item 2	$ 222.00					Benefit Item 2	$ 23.00		$ 32.00
			Cost Item 3	$ 1.00					Benefit Item 3	$ 34.00		$ 36.00
									Benefit Item 4

		6	Cost Item 1			$ - 0	$ - 0		Benefit Item 1				$ - 0	$ - 0
			Cost Item 2						Benefit Item 2
			Cost Item 3						Benefit Item 3
									Benefit Item 4

		7	Cost Item 1			$ - 0	$ - 0		Benefit Item 1				$ - 0	$ - 0
			Cost Item 2						Benefit Item 2
			Cost Item 3						Benefit Item 3
									Benefit Item 4

		8	Cost Item 1			$ - 0	$ - 0		Benefit Item 1				$ - 0	$ - 0
			Cost Item 2						Benefit Item 2
			Cost Item 3						Benefit Item 3
									Benefit Item 4

		9	Cost Item 1			$ - 0	$ - 0		Benefit Item 1				$ - 0	$ - 0
			Cost Item 2						Benefit Item 2
			Cost Item 3						Benefit Item 3
									Benefit Item 4

		10	Cost Item 1			$ - 0	$ - 0		Benefit Item 1				$ - 0	$ - 0
			Cost Item 2						Benefit Item 2
			Cost Item 3						Benefit Item 3
									Benefit Item 4

		11	Cost Item 1			$ - 0	$ - 0		Benefit Item 1				$ - 0	$ - 0
			Cost Item 2						Benefit Item 2
			Cost Item 3						Benefit Item 3
									Benefit Item 4

		12	Cost Item 1			$ - 0	$ - 0		Benefit Item 1				$ - 0	$ - 0
			Cost Item 2						Benefit Item 2
			Cost Item 3						Benefit Item 3
									Benefit Item 4

		13	Cost Item 1			$ - 0	$ - 0		Benefit Item 1				$ - 0	$ - 0
			Cost Item 2						Benefit Item 2
			Cost Item 3						Benefit Item 3
									Benefit Item 4

		14	Cost Item 1			$ - 0	$ - 0		Benefit Item 1				$ - 0	$ - 0
			Cost Item 2						Benefit Item 2
			Cost Item 3						Benefit Item 3
									Benefit Item 4

		15	Cost Item 1			$ - 0	$ - 0		Benefit Item 1				$ - 0	$ - 0
			Cost Item 2						Benefit Item 2
			Cost Item 3						Benefit Item 3
									Benefit Item 4

		16	Cost Item 1			$ - 0	$ - 0		Benefit Item 1				$ - 0	$ - 0
			Cost Item 2						Benefit Item 2
			Cost Item 3						Benefit Item 3
									Benefit Item 4

		17	Cost Item 1			$ - 0	$ - 0		Benefit Item 1				$ - 0	$ - 0
			Cost Item 2						Benefit Item 2
			Cost Item 3						Benefit Item 3
									Benefit Item 4

		18	Cost Item 1			$ - 0	$ - 0		Benefit Item 1				$ - 0	$ - 0
			Cost Item 2						Benefit Item 2
			Cost Item 3						Benefit Item 3
									Benefit Item 4

		19	Cost Item 1			$ - 0	$ - 0		Benefit Item 1				$ - 0	$ - 0
			Cost Item 2						Benefit Item 2
			Cost Item 3						Benefit Item 3
									Benefit Item 4

		20	Cost Item 1			$ - 0	$ - 0		Benefit Item 1				$ - 0	$ - 0
			Cost Item 2						Benefit Item 2
			Cost Item 3						Benefit Item 3
									Benefit Item 4

			Total Net Present Value of project/alternative under Scenario A										$ 447.45
2.c Determine Costs and Benefits for your alternative Scenario B: You can label this scenario more specifically in step 2.a
	▪ Below, determine how far costs and benefits in this scenario differ from costs and benefits under the base scenario (displayed in the grey cells). If you want to override the cost or benefit value from the base scenario enter a different value into the green cell to the right. If you want to maintain the same cost or benefit value from the base scenario, just leave the respective green cell blank. ▪ In the last column of every year, the Present Value of the expected net value of costs and benefits in that year will be calculated for you. ▪ At the very bottom of the table, you will find the sum of all Present Values - the Net Present Value. At the bottom of this worksheet, you can see how the NPV's from the different scenarios compare.
		Scenario B: You can label this scenario more specifically in step 2.a
		Year	Costs				Net value by year		Benefits					Net Present Value (by year)
			For what?	How much? - Base Scenario	How much? - Enter value if different from Base Scenario	Total costs			What kind of benefits?	What "amount"?		What "amount"? - Enter value if different from Base Scenario	Total benefits
		1	Cost Item 1	$ 100.00	$ - 0	$ 132.00	$ 144.00		"customer" friendliness	$ - 0			$ 276.00	$ 130.91
			Cost Item 2	$ 44.00	$ 120.00				Benefit Item 2	$ 88.00
			Cost Item 3	$ 32.00	$ 12.00				process improvements	$ 188.00
									Benefit Item 4	$ - 0

		2	Cost Item 1	$ 90.00	$ 110.00	$ 124.00	$ 37.00		Benefit Item 1	$ - 0			$ 161.00	$ 30.58
			Cost Item 2	$ 43.00	$ 2.00				Benefit Item 2	$ 50.00
			Cost Item 3	$ 33.00	$ 12.00				Benefit Item 3	$ 111.00
									Benefit Item 4

		3	Cost Item 1	$ 100.00	$ 90.00	$ 166.00	$ 423.00		Benefit Item 1	$ 333.00			$ 589.00	$ 398.60
			Cost Item 2	$ 44.00					Benefit Item 2	$ 211.00
			Cost Item 3	$ 32.00					Benefit Item 3	$ 45.00
									Benefit Item 4

		4	Cost Item 1	$ 90.00		$ 166.00	$ 380.00		Benefit Item 1	$ 56.00			$ 546.00	$ 351.06
			Cost Item 2	$ 43.00					Benefit Item 2	$ 456.00
			Cost Item 3	$ 33.00					Benefit Item 3	$ 34.00
									Benefit Item 4

		5	Cost Item 1	$ 333.00		$ 556.00	$ -487.00		Benefit Item 1	$ 12.00			$ 69.00	$ -441.09
			Cost Item 2	$ 222.00					Benefit Item 2	$ 23.00
			Cost Item 3	$ 1.00					Benefit Item 3	$ 34.00
									Benefit Item 4

		6	Cost Item 1			$ - 0	$ - 0		Benefit Item 1				$ - 0	$ - 0
			Cost Item 2						Benefit Item 2
			Cost Item 3						Benefit Item 3
									Benefit Item 4

		7	Cost Item 1			$ - 0	$ - 0		Benefit Item 1				$ - 0	$ - 0
			Cost Item 2						Benefit Item 2
			Cost Item 3						Benefit Item 3
									Benefit Item 4

		8	Cost Item 1			$ - 0	$ - 0		Benefit Item 1				$ - 0	$ - 0
			Cost Item 2						Benefit Item 2
			Cost Item 3						Benefit Item 3
									Benefit Item 4

		9	Cost Item 1			$ - 0	$ - 0		Benefit Item 1				$ - 0	$ - 0
			Cost Item 2						Benefit Item 2
			Cost Item 3						Benefit Item 3
									Benefit Item 4

		10	Cost Item 1			$ - 0	$ - 0		Benefit Item 1				$ - 0	$ - 0
			Cost Item 2						Benefit Item 2
			Cost Item 3						Benefit Item 3
									Benefit Item 4

		11	Cost Item 1			$ - 0	$ - 0		Benefit Item 1				$ - 0	$ - 0
			Cost Item 2						Benefit Item 2
			Cost Item 3						Benefit Item 3
									Benefit Item 4

		12	Cost Item 1			$ - 0	$ - 0		Benefit Item 1				$ - 0	$ - 0
			Cost Item 2						Benefit Item 2
			Cost Item 3						Benefit Item 3
									Benefit Item 4

		13	Cost Item 1			$ - 0	$ - 0		Benefit Item 1				$ - 0	$ - 0
			Cost Item 2						Benefit Item 2
			Cost Item 3						Benefit Item 3
									Benefit Item 4

		14	Cost Item 1			$ - 0	$ - 0		Benefit Item 1				$ - 0	$ - 0
			Cost Item 2						Benefit Item 2
			Cost Item 3						Benefit Item 3
									Benefit Item 4

		15	Cost Item 1			$ - 0	$ - 0		Benefit Item 1				$ - 0	$ - 0
			Cost Item 2						Benefit Item 2
			Cost Item 3						Benefit Item 3
									Benefit Item 4

		16	Cost Item 1			$ - 0	$ - 0		Benefit Item 1				$ - 0	$ - 0
			Cost Item 2						Benefit Item 2
			Cost Item 3						Benefit Item 3
									Benefit Item 4

		17	Cost Item 1			$ - 0	$ - 0		Benefit Item 1				$ - 0	$ - 0
			Cost Item 2						Benefit Item 2
			Cost Item 3						Benefit Item 3
									Benefit Item 4

		18	Cost Item 1			$ - 0	$ - 0		Benefit Item 1				$ - 0	$ - 0
			Cost Item 2						Benefit Item 2
			Cost Item 3						Benefit Item 3
									Benefit Item 4

		19	Cost Item 1			$ - 0	$ - 0		Benefit Item 1				$ - 0	$ - 0
			Cost Item 2						Benefit Item 2
			Cost Item 3						Benefit Item 3
									Benefit Item 4

		20	Cost Item 1			$ - 0	$ - 0		Benefit Item 1				$ - 0	$ - 0
			Cost Item 2						Benefit Item 2
			Cost Item 3						Benefit Item 3
									Benefit Item 4

			Total Net Present Value of project/alternative under Scenario B										$ 436.45
4. Summary										Scenarios			Social Discount Rate	Net Present Value	Rank
	▪ The table on the right summarizes the results of the sensitivity analysis, i.e. three Cost-Benefit-Analyses of your one project/policy alternative under differing assumptions. ▪ It shows you how changes in the different parameters affect the Net Present Value of the project under scrutiny, and thereby how even small changes in assumptions might have a large impact on the overall value of the policy/project.									Base Scenario			5.50%	$ 376.13	3
										Scenario A:			2.00%	$ 447.45	1
										Scenario B:			10.00%	$ 436.45	2

back to: Outcome matrix

/xl/drawings/drawing12.xml#'5.%20Outcomes'!Print_Area

5.d Stakeholder analysis

Policy Analysis Workbook

Step 5: Project the Outcomes & Assess political feasibility: Stakeholder Analysis

Overview

1. Identify the relevant actors

2. Understand the motivations and beliefs of the actors

3. Assess the resources of the actors

4. Map the analysis against alternatives in the outcomes matrix

▪ To get an understanding of the political feasibility of different policy options, it is helpful to consider key stakeholders. ▪ The steps here will help you to analyze the stakeholder environment relevant to your policy analysis.

▪ Identify all relevant actors and write them down in the "Actors" column below. ▪ Categorize the actors into stakeholder groups in the left-most column of the table. ▪ You might consider, for example, these categories of potential stakeholders: – Interest groups: Private Sector (e.g. company X, industry/lobby Y) – Interest groups: Civil Society (e.g. local residents, single- parent families, civilian movements) – Elected Officials (e.g. House Republicans, Mayor) – Unelected Officials (e.g. Secretary of X) – Intermediary organizations/NGOs (e.g. labor unions, Teach for America)

▪ Think through the motivations and beliefs of these actors, as they relate to this policy problem and to any potential policy options. ▪ Record key motivations and beliefs in the "Motivations" and "Beliefs" columns below.

▪ Also consider the resources available to each of these actors, which could be brought to influence policy outcomes. ▪ Record key resources in the "Resources" column below.

▪ Be as specific about major stakeholders as possible:

– In what respects are they affected by the different options, what might they stand to lose or to win? – What is their political, financial, public influence and/or "Veto-Power" with regard to which of the alternatives?

▪ What does this imply in terms of

– political (in)feasibility of different alternatives – a need for the future involvement of specific stakeholders in strategy and decision-making processes – etc.

5.e Outcome_Notes

Policy Analysis Workbook
Step 5: Project the Outcomes
	▪ To later summarize your projections in the condensed format of the Outcomes Matrix, first gather your thoughts about each alternative's performance by criterion in the tables below. ▪ If you find it easier to work in Word, just copy all of the below and paste it into a Word document. If you prefer not to use the table formatting, Paste Special as "unformatted text."
OVERVIEW Steps 1 - 4
	Problem:
		There is this problem and it has these very specific characteristics.
	Alternatives:
		1 -
		2 -
		3 -
		4 -
		5 -
	Criteria:
		A –
		B –
		C –
		D –
		E –
ANALYSIS / PROJECTIONS
	1 -
	A –
	NOTES
	B –
	NOTES
	C –
	NOTES
	D –
	NOTES
	E –
	NOTES
	2 -
	A –
	NOTES
	B –
	NOTES
	C –
	NOTES
	D –
	NOTES
	E –
	NOTES
	3 -
	A –
	NOTES
	B –
	NOTES
	C –
	NOTES
	D –
	NOTES
	E –
	NOTES
	4 -
	A –
	NOTES
	B –
	NOTES
	C –
	NOTES
	D –
	NOTES
	E –
	NOTES
	5 -
	A –
	NOTES
	B –
	NOTES
	C –
	NOTES
	D –
	NOTES
	E –
	NOTES

back to matrix

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back to matrix

/xl/drawings/drawing14.xml#'5.%20Outcomes'!Print_Area

5. Project the outcomes2. Gather some evidence3. Construct the alternatives4. Select the criteria6. Confront the trade-offs7. Decide!1. Define the problem8. Tell your story

Possible Scope 2Possible Scope 1Problem

Problem

Element I

Problem

Element III

Problem

Element II

Problem

Element …

Problem

Element IV

Problem IIBroader ProblemProblem …

contribute to/ influencecontribute to/ influence

INPUTS

  Funds   Materials   Human capital

OUTPUTS

  Immediate effects of products and services

OUTCOMES

  Medium and long-term results

IMPACT

  Mission-relevant social change

ACTIVITIES

  Work of the organization

INPUTS

  Decision over resource allocation within OWLA (prioritization of resources between different activities)

  Conceptualizing of programs and setting of program parameters

  …

OUTPUTS

  # enrolled girls   # teachers with new

training

  # new schools

  # new support programs (e.g., food, transportation, after- school tutoring

  …

OUTCOMES

  More girls have good information

  More girls complete HS

  Family support is higher

  More girls are motivated to apply to college

  More girls are accepted to college

  More girls attend college

IMPACT

  More South African girls attend good colleges and receive higher education

  South African girls enjoy greater opportunities and independence in life

  South African society becomes more productive and equitable

ACTIVITIES

  Mentoring Program   Scholarships

  Family Coaching Programs

  …

INPUTS OUTPUTS OUTCOMES IMPACT

Backward-mapping

ACTIVITIES

INPUTS OUTPUTS OUTCOMES IMPACT

Backward-mapping

ACTIVITIES

Source: Moore, M. (2013). Recognizing Public Value. Cambridge: Harvard University Press.

Public Value Account

Use of Collec0vely Owned Assets and Associated Costs

Financial Costs

Unintended Nega0ve Consequences

Social Costs of Using State Authority

At Aggregate Level in Results

Achievement of Collec0vely Valued Social Outcomes

Mission Achievement

Unintended Posi0ve Consequences

Client Sa0sfac0on

Service Recipients

Obligatees

Jus0ce and Fairness

At Individual Level in Opera7ons

Source: Moore, M. (2013). Recognizing Public Value. Cambridge: Harvard University Press.

Public Value Account

Use of Collecvely Owned Assets

and Associated Costs

Financial Costs

Unintended Negave

Consequences

Social Costs of Using

State Authority

At Aggregate Level

in Results

Achievement of Collecvely

Valued Social Outcomes

Mission Achievement

Unintended Posive

Consequences

Client Sasfacon

Service Recipients

Obligatees

Jusce and Fairness

At Individual Level

in Operaons