Political Science Regession

POLI-210 Spring 2021 Name:_____________________________

Part II: Short Answer : Answer the following questions to the best of your ability. Be sure to reference material from class lectures and your assigned readings.

Use this prompt for the next two Sections:

A researcher is conducting a study on the causes of democracy The dependent variable is Level of Democracy and coded 0-10 (0-3 are coded as nondemocracies; 4-6 as illiberal regimes; 7-10 are democracies). The four independent variables are Gross Domestic Product (GDP) coded as an interval variable ranging from $1,000-$62,000; Previous Democratization coded 0 if a country did not historically having a democracy before the current transition and 1 if they did; GINI (measuring income equality) Range :0-100 where zero is complete economic equality and 100 is complete inequality; % of GDP from natural resources Range 0-100 where 0 means none of the country’s GDP is derived from natural resources and 100 means all of it is.

7. Suppose that the researcher begins the analysis by running a correlation and obtains Pearson’s r coefficients for the relationship between the dependent variable and all independent variables. The coefficients are as follows GDP (.51) Previous Democratization (.04)

GINI (-.22) % of GDP from natural resources (-.68)

What information can we gather for what we would expect to happen if we ran a regression? (i.e. Also, can we determine Causality from this analysis? Explain your answer. (20 Points)

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8. Suppose that the researcher then performs a regression and obtains regression coefficients and p-values. The coefficient’s and p-values are as follows:

Constant 5.1

GDP .0032 (pvalue= .000)

Previous Democratization .031 (pvalue= .082)

GINI - .28 (pvalue=.043)

% of GDP from natural resources -.88 (pvalue= .000)

Interpret the findings (i.e. direction and statistical significance of each variable) (25 points)

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Part III: Statistics: Use the World Data for the next four questions.

10. Now, perform a correlation using Polity and GDP_cap3. Report the coefficient in the table below. Based on the findings provide a hypothesis using Polity as the dependent variable and GDP_cap3 as the independent variable. (30 Points)

Variables	Polity
GDP_cap3

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11. Perform a regression analyis using the variable Polity as your dependent variable and GDP_cap3 as your independent variable. Based on your findings, would you accept or reject your hypothesis: (30 Points)

Variables	Polity	Standard Error	T-statistic	p-value
GDP_cap3
Constant

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12. Perform a regression analyis using the variable Polity as your dependent variable and GDP_cap3 as your main independent variable. Let’s add HDI and Dem_other as controls. Based on your findings, would you accept or reject your hypothesis: (35 Points)

Variables	Polity	Standard Error	T-statistic	p-value
GDP_cap3
HDI
Dem_other

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