Covert Action and Intelligence
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POL341Week3Lecture2.pptxPOL341 Covert Action and Intelligence Week 3 Lecture 2 Analysis – Part 1
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Info Needs
Processors
(Process, Exploit,
Analyze, Finish)
Intelligence
Collectors
(Gather)
Deciders
(Plan and Act)
Info Needs
Raw Info
Revisit the Intel Process
This topic is huge. I will focus on the broad concepts and some analytical tips. Remember to read your Beebe text. I will also give my 4 golden rules for an analyst.
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Without Analysis and Processing, you just have letters and numbers.
It is like a policy-maker requesting water and getting a fire hose instead of a nice glass of chilled water.
Analyst: Key Chokepoint
Analysis means:
Separation of whole into is component parts
An examination of a complex phenomenon, its elements, and their relations
Separating something into component parts or constituent elements
It is an empirical process – using quantitative data
Establishing propositions and developing evidence to confirm or deny the assumptions
Identifying patterns in data and developing meaningful information from the patterns
Analysis: A Process within a Process
This is one generic definition
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Strategic: who, what, why?
Standing Threats and Requirements
Long-Term
Planning
Tactical: when, where, how?
Immediate
Short-term
Actionable
Strategic vs. Tactical Intel (Analysis)
Tell me what you know. Tell me what you don't know. And then, based on what you really know and what you really don't know, tell me what you think is most likely to happen. – Colin Powell
I Need Clear Guidance Boss
Analyst: Can I Just Sit in the Corner and Look at the Data?
Deciders and Collectors thought to be communicators
Analysts have the most arrows, thus the most communication requirements in the process
Analyst: The Real Communicators
Analysts have the most arrows, and arrows mean communication. Although one might think Collectors ar
Objectivity
Independent of Political Considerations
Timeliness
Based on All Available Sources of Intelligence
Exhibits Proper Standards of Analytic Tradecraft, Specifically:
Properly describes quality and reliability of underlying sources
Properly caveats and expresses uncertainties or confidence in analytic judgments
Properly distinguishes between underlying intelligence and analysts’ assumptions and judgments
Incorporates alternative analysis where appropriate
Demonstrates relevance to U.S. national security
Uses logical argumentation
Exhibits consistency of analysis over time, or highlights changes and explains rationale
Makes accurate judgments and assessments (?)
Intelligence Community Directive 203: Standards for Intelligence Analysis
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TOOLS
METHODS
PITFALLS
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Focus groups
Questionnaires
Trend analysis
Forecasting
Benchmarking
SWOT
Game theoretical approaches
Simulations
Ratio analysis
Cost analysis
Spread sheets
Devil’s advocate
PEST
Statistical analysis
Scenario analysis
Signal Analysis and Early Warning Analysis
Power analysis (or Follow the Money)
Some Tools
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Link Analysis
Network Analysis
Data Mining
Timeline Analysis
Transaction Analysis
Telephone Analysis
And Methods
Spreadsheets, Databases, Tools. Recall, all the tech gear that delivers guidance, info needs, processing, analyzing, within a classified process, must talk to each other and be sharable. This is a large problem. This is structural stovepiping, or system driven, vice personality driven.
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Just because it is in a computer or database, or on the web, doesn’t mean its credible or true
QUESTION the credibility of every piece of information
“Garbage In, Garbage Out”
Using Computers and Databases
| US | |||
| Build | ~ Build | ||
| Rogue State | Attack | $60B $5B+G | $1Tr $5B+G |
| ~ Attack | $60B 0 | 0 0 |
Prisoner’s Dilemma:
Sometimes Logical, Sometimes Not…
Mirror-Imaging: They will do what you think is rational
Groupthink: Everybody else thinks X will happen, the tallest nail is hammered first…
Competitive Analysis: Protection of Info and loss of objectivity as individuals and orgs are pitted against each other
Collaborative Analysis: Any problems?
Stovepiping: Systematic and Personality (Tech, Comp Analysis, Secrecy Needs)
Analytical Barriers
Intel trying to make policy
Policy trying to perform intel
Conclusion-based analysis
Politicized Intelligence
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Sherman Kent – Analyst 3 Wishes:
Know Everything (All Source Analysis)
Be Believed
Influence Policy for the Good
You Get Three Wishes
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Tradecraft Rule 1: Don’t Assume Anything, it makes an…
Question the Source
Historical Reporting
Credibility Analysis
List of Motivations
Technology Limitations
Who is talking, what is their relationship (Husb-Wife, Guys at the Gym)
Tradecraft Rule 2: Question the Source
“Analytic errors included over-reliance on a single, ambiguous source, [and, in addition to collection shortfalls] failure of analysts to understand fully the limitations of technical collection . . .”
And the Commission Says…
“The Intelligence Community relied too heavily on ambiguous imagery indicators . . .” -- Commission on the Intelligence Capabilities of the United States Regarding Weapons of Mass Destruction.
Tradecraft Rule 3: Remove Biases
CIA
Tradecraft Rule 3: Remove Biases
CIA
Tradecraft Rule 4: Deliver to Your Customer
Know your customer and need (e.g. Tactical or Strategic)
Write for tailored reuse
Products must be discoverable by those who need them
Tradecraft essential, not expendable
Timely electronic dissemination is always the goal
Train to think of customers inclusively
National Intelligence Estimate
Tailored to President’s wishes
The President’s Daily Briefing (PDB)
Tailored to presidents wishes
Senior Executive Intelligence Brief (SEIB)
Daily CIA newspaper
Senior Executive & Military Officials and Legislate oversight
Top Down Delivery Products
These are the collective and collaborative work of the community.
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Intelligence not only has to train new recruits but also to educate its customers. This is a formidable task because the latter, at a more advanced age, are very busy people, sure of their own judgment [...]. They have to be convinced of what intelligence can, and what it cannot, achieve. -- Walter Lacquer, Intelligence Scholar
Policy and Intel
Thorough
Objective
Confident (Confidence Levels)
Truthful
Admit Product shortcomings
Understand your products and your own inherent biases
Package
Preserve Your Credibility
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