Discussion about taxes

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PewResearchCenter_GrowingPartisanDivide.pdf

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FOR RELEASE April 4, 2019

FOR MEDIA OR OTHER INQUIRIES:

Carroll Doherty, Director of Political Research

Jocelyn Kiley, Associate Director, Research

Bridget Johnson, Communications Manager

202.419.4372

www.pewresearch.org

RECOMMENDED CITATION

Pew Research Center, April, 2019, “Growing

Partisan Divide Over Fairness of the Nation’s Tax

System”

PEW RESEARCH CENTER

www.pewresearch.org

About Pew Research Center

Pew Research Center is a nonpartisan fact tank that informs the public about the issues, attitudes

and trends shaping America and the world. It does not take policy positions. It conducts public

opinion polling, demographic research, content analysis and other data-driven social science

research. The Center studies U.S. politics and policy; journalism and media; internet, science and

technology; religion and public life; Hispanic trends; global attitudes and trends; and U.S. social

and demographic trends. All of the Center’s reports are available at www.pewresearch.org. Pew

Research Center is a subsidiary of The Pew Charitable Trusts, its primary funder.

http://www.pewresearch.org/

PEW RESEARCH CENTER

www.pewresearch.org

As the April 15 tax deadline approaches, overall public

views of the fairness of the nation’s tax system have

changed only modestly since 2017, before passage of

major tax legislation. However, partisan differences on

tax fairness have increased considerably since then, and

now are wider than at any point in at least two decades.

Two years ago, Republicans and Democrats had similar

views of the fairness of the tax system. Today, 64% of

Republicans and Republican-leaning independents say

the present tax system is very or moderately fair; just

half as many Democrats and Democratic leaners (32%)

view the tax system as fair. The share of Republicans

who say the tax system is fair has increased 21

percentage points since 2017. Over this period, the share

of Democrats viewing the tax system as fair has declined

nine points.

Widest partisan gap in views of fairness

of tax system in at least two decades

% who say the present federal tax system is …

% who say the present federal tax system is very/moderately fair

Note: Don’t know responses not shown.

Source: Survey of U.S. adults conducted March 20-25, 2019.

Trend sources: Time/CNN, NPR/Kaiser/Harvard and CNN polls.

PEW RESEARCH CENTER

1997 2002 2007 2012 2017

Not too/Not at all fair

Very/Moderately fair

1997 2002 2007 2012 2017 2019

1997 2002 2007 2012 2017

Rep/Lean Rep

Dem/Lean Dem

1997 2002 2007 2012 2017 2019

PEW RESEARCH CENTER

www.pewresearch.org

The survey by Pew Research Center, conducted

March 20-25 among 1,503 adults, finds that

more than a year after the new tax law was

enacted, public approval remains relatively

unchanged (36% approve of the tax law, while

49% disapprove). However, fewer Republicans

strongly approve of the law than did so in

January 2018.

About seven-in-ten Republicans (71%) approve

of the tax law, including 43% who strongly

approve. Early last year, about the same share

of Republicans approved of the tax law (75%),

but a majority (57%) strongly approved.

Most Democrats continue to express negative

views of the tax law. Today, 79% of Democrats

disapprove, including 59% who strongly

disapprove.

Americans are about as likely to say they

understand how the tax law affects them as was the case in January 2018. A majority of Americans

say they understand how the tax law has affected them and their family “very well” (26%) or

“somewhat well” (37%). However, a third say they understand the law’s impact not too well or not

at all well.

Overall views of tax law little changed;

fewer Republicans ‘strongly approve’

% who ___ of the tax law passed by Donald Trump and

Congress in 2017

Note: Figures may not add to 100% because of rounding.

Source: Survey of U.S. adults conducted March 20-25, 2019.

PEW RESEARCH CENTER

www.pewresearch.org

The public’s overall

frustrations with the federal tax

system have changed little

since April 2017, the survey

finds.

Overall, about six-in-ten

Americans say they are

bothered “a lot” by the feeling

that some corporations (62%)

and wealthy people (60%) do

not pay their fair share in taxes.

Fewer American express strong

concerns about the complexity

of the tax system (39% say they

are bothered a lot by this), the

amount they pay in taxes (27%)

and whether poor people pay

their fair share in taxes (16%).

The public’s views of the fairness of the U.S. economic system have changed little in recent years –

and remain deeply divided along partisan lines. Currently, 63% of Americans say the “economic

system unfairly favors powerful interests,” while just 34% say it is “generally fair to most

Americans.” About twice as many Democrats (81%) as Republicans (40%) say the country’s

economic system is unfair.

Similarly, opinions on whether corporate profits are excessive have been stable. A 56% majority

says business corporations make too much profit, compared with 39% who say their profits are

“fair and reasonable.” While 72% of Democrats say corporations make too much profit, only 38%

of Republicans say the same.

Top tax frustrations: Feeling that some corporations

and wealthy people don’t pay their fair share

% who say each bothers them ___ about the federal tax system

Note: Don’t know responses not shown.

Source: Survey of U.S. adults conducted March 20-25, 2019.

PEW RESEARCH CENTER

A lot Some Not too much Not at all

The feeling that some

corporations don't

pay their fair share

The feeling that some

wealthy people don't

pay their fair share

The complexity of the

tax system

The amount you pay

in taxes

The feeling that some

poor people don't

pay their fair share

https://www.people-press.org/2017/04/14/top-frustrations-with-tax-system-sense-that-corporations-wealthy-dont-pay-fair-share/

PEW RESEARCH CENTER

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While increasing shares of Democrats say they are bothered “a lot” by the feeling that some

corporations and wealthy people do not pay their fair share in taxes (79% of Democrats say this

about each), Republicans’

concerns over these issues

have lessened.

Today, 42% of Republicans say

they are bothered a lot by the

feeling that some corporations

do not pay their fair share of

taxes (down from 55% in

2015). And just 37% of

Republicans are bothered a

great deal by the feeling that

some wealthy people do not

pay their fair share (49% said

this in 2015).

Republicans’ concerns over

the complexity of the tax

system and how much they

pay in taxes also have

declined. About four-in-ten

Republicans (39%) say they

are bothered a lot by the

complexity of the tax system, down 15 percentage points since 2015 and 10 points since 2017.

Democrats’ views have changed little since 2015; today, 40% say they are bothered a lot by the

complexity of the tax system.

There has been a modest decrease in the share of Republicans who say they are bothered a lot by

the amount they pay in taxes (27% now, 35% two years ago). Over the past two years, there has

been a comparable rise in the share of Democrats saying they are bothered a lot by how much they

pay in taxes (28% now, 21% in 2017).

Widening partisan differences in concerns that

corporations and wealthy don’t pay fair share

% who say each bothers them ‘a lot’ about the federal tax system

Source: Survey of U.S. adults conducted March 20-25, 2019.

PEW RESEARCH CENTER

www.pewresearch.org

Today, about two-thirds of Republicans and Republican leaners (64%) say the present federal tax

system is very or moderately fair; only about a third of Democrats and Democratic leaners (32%)

say the same. In October 2017, there was not a significant gap in Republicans’ and Democrats’

views of the fairness of the tax system.

While Republicans and Democrats across income categories differ in their views of tax fairness,

the gaps are widest – and the shift most pronounced – among those with family incomes of

$75,000 or more. Currently, 68% of Republicans with incomes of at least $75,000 say the tax

system is very or moderately fair, up from just 37% in 2017. By contrast, the share of Democrats

who view the tax system as fair has declined 19 percentage points since then (from 40% to 21%).

Republicans and Democrats with incomes of at least $75,000 sharply diverge in

views of fairness of the federal tax system

% who say the present federal tax system is very or moderately fair

Source: Survey of U.S. adults conducted March 20-25, 2019.

PEW RESEARCH CENTER

www.pewresearch.org

Across many demographic groups, assessments

of the 2017 tax law are more negative than

positive overall. And partisan differences in the

law, which were evident in January 2018

shortly after it was enacted, are about as wide

today as they were then.

Democrats, regardless of ideology,

overwhelmingly disapprove of the tax law, while

there are wider ideological differences among

Republicans.

Overall, 71% of Republicans and Republican

leaners approve of the law. Conservative

Republicans are more likely than moderate and

liberal Republicans to approve of the tax law

(80%, compared with 55%).

By contrast, sizable majorities of both liberal

(80%) and conservative and moderate (77%)

Democrats and Democratic leaners say they

disapprove of the law.

Adults 65 and older are divided in their views of

the tax law: 43% approve, while 41%

disapprove. Among younger age cohorts, more

disapprove than approve of the law.

While views of the tax law are more negative

than positive across all educational groups,

those with postgraduate degrees are more likely

than others to say they disapprove of the law

(60% say this, compared to 48% of those with

less education).

Wide partisan differences in views of

2017 tax law

% who ___ of the tax law passed by Trump and

Congress

Notes: Figures may not add to 100% because of rounding. Whites

and blacks include only those who are not Hispanic; Hispanics are

of any race.

Source: Survey of U.S. adults conducted March 20-25, 2019.

PEW RESEARCH CENTER

www.pewresearch.org

Among whites, views of the tax law are significantly different between those with and without a

college degree. About half of whites with a college degree or more (51%) disapprove of the law,

while 37% approve. Among whites without a college degree, the balance of opinion is roughly the

reverse: 47% approve; 32% disapprove.

PEW RESEARCH CENTER

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Most Americans (63%) say the economic system in the United States unfairly favors powerful

interests; only about a third (34%) say it is generally fair to most Americans. The share saying the

economic system is unfair has remained largely stable since 2014.

Republicans’ and Democrats’ attitudes about the fairness of the economic system have been

moving in opposite directions over the past few years. In 2014, there was a 20 percentage-point

gap between the shares of Republicans (51%) and Democrats (71%) who said the economy unfairly

favors powerful interests; that gap is now 41 points (40% of Republicans vs. 81% of Democrats).

While about eight-in-ten Democrats and Democratic leaners say the economic system is unfair, a

majority of Republicans and Republican leaners (56%) now say the economic system is generally

fair to most Americans.

Continued partisan gap in views of fairness of U.S. economic system

% who say the economic system in this country …

Total Among Rep/Lean Rep Among Dem/Lean Dem

Note: Don’t know responses not shown.

Source: Survey of U.S. adults conducted March 20-25, 2019.

PEW RESEARCH CENTER

62 63

34 34

'14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19

Unfairly favors powerful

interests

Is generally fair to most

Americans

'14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19

PEW RESEARCH CENTER

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The public continues to say that “business

corporations make too much profit.” Today,

56% of the public says corporations make too

much profit; 39% say “most corporation make a

fair and reasonable amount of profit.” These

views have held largely steady since 1994.

Nearly three-quarters of Democrats and

Democratic leaners (72%) say corporations

make too much profit, while about a quarter

(24%) say corporate profits are reasonable.

Conversely, 56% of Republicans and

Republican leaners say most businesses’ profits

are fair and reasonable, while 38% say

businesses are profiting too much.

Majority of Americans say business

corporations make too much profit

% who say …

% who say business corporations make too much profit

Note: Don’t know responses not shown.

Source: Survey of U.S. adults conducted March 20-25, 2019.

PEW RESEARCH CENTER

52 56

43 39

1994 1999 2004 2009 2014 2019

Business corporations

make too much profit

Most corporations make a

fair and reasonable

amount of profit

43 38

1994 1999 2004 2009 2014 2019

Dem/Lean Dem

Rep/Lean Rep

PEW RESEARCH CENTER

www.pewresearch.org

Acknowledgements

This report is a collaborative effort based on the input and analysis of the following individuals:

Research team

Carroll Doherty, Director, Political Research

Jocelyn Kiley, Associate Director, Political Research

Alec Tyson, Senior Researcher

Bradley Jones, Research Associate

Baxter Oliphant, Research Associate

Hannah Hartig, Research Analyst

Amina Dunn, Research Assistant

John LaLoggia, Research Assistant

Haley Davie, Intern

Communications and editorial

Bridget Johnson, Communications Manager

Graphic design and web publishing

Alissa Scheller, Information Graphics Designer

Sara Atske, Assistant Digital Producer

PEW RESEARCH CENTER

www.pewresearch.org

Methodology

The analysis in this report is based on telephone interviews conducted March 20-25, 2019 among

a national sample of 1,503 adults, 18 years of age or older, living in all 50 U.S. states and the

District of Columbia (300 respondents were interviewed on a landline telephone, and 1,203 were

interviewed on a cell phone, including 792 who had no landline telephone). The survey was

conducted by interviewers under the direction of Abt Associates. A combination of landline and

cell phone random-digit-dial samples were used; both samples were provided by Survey Sampling

International, LLC. Interviews were conducted in English and Spanish. Respondents in the

landline sample were selected by randomly asking for the youngest adult male or female who is

now at home. Interviews in the cell sample were conducted with the person who answered the

phone, if that person was an adult 18 years of age or older. The weighting procedure corrected for

the different sampling rates. For detailed information about our survey methodology, see

http://www.pewresearch.org/methodology/u-s-survey-research/.

The combined landline and cell phone sample is weighted using an iterative technique that

matches gender, age, education, race, Hispanic origin and nativity, and region to parameters from

the 2017 Census Bureau's American Community Survey one-year estimates and population density

to parameters from the decennial census. The sample also is weighted to match current patterns of

telephone status (landline only, cell phone only, or both landline and cell phone), based on

extrapolations from the 2018 National Health Interview Survey. The weighting procedure also

accounts for the fact that respondents with both landline and cell phones have a greater

probability of being included in the combined sample and adjusts for household size among

respondents with a landline phone. The margins of error reported and statistical tests of

significance are adjusted to account for the survey’s design effect, a measure of how much

efficiency is lost from the weighting procedures.

http://www.pewresearch.org/methodology/u-s-survey-research/

PEW RESEARCH CENTER

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The following table shows the unweighted sample sizes and the error attributable to sampling that

would be expected at the 95% level of confidence for different groups in the survey:

Sample sizes and sampling errors for other subgroups are available upon request.

In addition to sampling error, one should bear in mind that question wording and practical

difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of opinion polls.

Pew Research Center undertakes all polling activity, including calls to mobile telephone numbers,

in compliance with the Telephone Consumer Protection Act and other applicable laws.

Pew Research Center is a nonprofit, tax-exempt 501(c)(3) organization and a subsidiary of The

Pew Charitable Trusts, its primary funder.

Survey conducted March 20-25, 2019

Group Unweighted sample size Plus or minus …

Total sample 1,503 3.0 percentage points

Rep/Lean Rep 657 4.5 percentage points

Dem/Lean Dem 708 4.4 percentage points

PEW RESEARCH CENTER

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PEW RESEARCH CENTER MARCH 2019 POLITICAL SURVEY

FINAL TOPLINE MARCH 20-25, 2019

N=1,503

QUESTIONS 1-2, 10, 14, 33-34, 47-49 PREVIOUSLY RELEASED NO QUESTIONS 3-9, 11-13, 15-18, 21-24, 26-32, 35-43, 45-46 QUESTIONS 19-20, 25, 44 HELD FOR FUTURE RELEASE ASK ALL: Q.50 I'm going to read you some pairs of statements that will help us understand how you feel about a

number of things. As I read each pair, tell me whether the FIRST statement or the SECOND statement comes closer to your own views — even if neither is exactly right. The first pair is [READ AND RANDOMIZE PAIRS BUT NOT STATEMENTS WITHIN EACH PAIR, EXCEPT FOR ITEM d AND e WHICH SHOULD HAVE STATEMENTS RANDOMIZED WITHIN PAIR]. [IF NECESSARY:

Next], [NEXT PAIR]. [IF NECESSARY: “Which statement comes closer to your views, even if neither is exactly right?”]

Business corporations make too much profit

Most corporations make a fair and reasonable

amount of profit

(VOL.) Both/Neither/

DK/Ref

Mar 20-25, 2019 56 39 5

Jun 8-Jul 9, 2017 59 36 5

Mar 17-26, 2016 58 37 5

Aug 27-Oct 4, 2015 57 38 5

Jan 23-Mar 16, 2014 56 39 4

Mar 13-17, 2013 53 41 6

Feb 22-Mar 14, 2011 54 39 7

Aug 25-Sep 6, 2010 (RVs) 54 39 6

December, 2008 58 35 7

October, 2008 59 33 8

December, 2005 61 33 6

December, 2004 53 39 8

June, 2003 51 42 7

July, 2002 58 33 9

February, 2002 54 39 7

September, 2000 54 38 8

August, 1999 52 42 6

June, 1997 51 43 6

October, 1996 51 42 7

October, 1995 53 43 4

April, 1995 51 44 5

October, 1994 50 44 6

July, 1994 52 43 5

PEW RESEARCH CENTER

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QUESTIONS 50b-c PREVIOUSLY RELEASED

QUESTION 50e-f, 54-55, 58, 60-61 HELD FOR FUTURE RELEASE NO QUESTIONS 51-53, 59, 62-63 QUESTIONS 56-57 PREVIOUSLY RELEASED

ASK ALL: Thinking about the tax system… Q.64 How fair do you think our present federal tax system is? Overall would you say that our tax system is

[READ IN ORDER] Moderately Not too Not fair (VOL.) Very fair fair fair at all DK/Ref Mar 20-25, 2019 5 41 30 23 2 Oct 25-30, 2017 3 38 32 26 1 Apr 5-11, 2017 2 40 29 27 1 Feb 18-22, 2015 4 46 24 24 1

Dec 7-11, 2011 3 40 31 24 3 CNN: Apr 9-11, 2010 4 45 30 20 1 NPR/Kaiser/Harvard: March 2003 4 47 32 16 1 Time/CNN: March 1997 3 42 31 23 2 Time/CNN: May 1985 2 41 31 24 2

ASK ALL: Q.65 Please tell me how much, if at all, each of the following bothers you about the federal tax system?

First, [INSERT ITEM; RANDOMIZE] does this bother you a lot, some, not too much, or not at all? How about [NEXT ITEM]? [IF NECESSARY: Does this bother you a lot, some, not too much, or not

at all?] Not too Not (VOL.) A lot Some much at all DK/Ref a. The amount you pay in taxes Mar 20-25, 2019 27 29 24 17 2 Apr 5-11, 2017 27 26 25 21 1 Feb 18-22, 2015 27 26 27 19 2 b. The complexity of the tax system Mar 20-25, 2019 39 34 15 10 2 Apr 5-11, 2017 43 29 16 10 2 Feb 18-22, 2015 44 28 17 8 3

c. The feeling that some wealthy people

don’t pay their fair share Mar 20-25, 2019 60 20 10 9 1

The economic system in this country unfairly

favors powerful interests

The economic system in this country is generally fair to most Americans

(VOL.) Both/Neither/

DK/Ref

Mar 20-25, 2019 63 34 3

Sep 18-24, 2018 63 33 4

Jun 8-Jul 9, 2017 65 32 3

Mar 17-26, 2016 66 31 2

Aug 27-Oct 4, 2015 65 31 3 Feb 18-22, 2015 62 33 4 Jan 29-Feb 9, 2014 62 34 4

PEW RESEARCH CENTER

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QUESTION 65 CONTINUED … Not too Not (VOL.) A lot Some much at all DK/Ref Apr 5-11, 2017 60 18 9 12 1 Feb 18-22, 2015 61 18 10 10 2

d. The feeling that some poor people don’t pay their fair share

Mar 20-25, 2019 16 24 19 39 2 Apr 5-11, 2017 20 20 22 36 2 Feb 18-22, 2015 20 22 22 34 2 e. The feeling that some corporations

don’t pay their fair share Mar 20-25, 2019 62 20 9 8 2 Apr 5-11, 2017 62 18 9 9 1 Feb 18-22, 2015 64 18 9 8 1

QUESTIONS 66-69 HELD FOR FUTURE RELEASE ASK ALL: Next, Q.70 Do you approve or disapprove of the tax law passed by Donald Trump and Congress in 2017? ASK IF APPROVE OR DISAPPROVE (Q.70=1,2): Q.70a Do you [approve/disapprove] very strongly, or not so strongly?

Mar 20-25 2019

Jan 10-15 20181

36 Approve 37 20 Very strongly 26

16 Not so strongly 10 1 Don’t know/Refused (VOL.) *

49 Disapprove 46 34 Very strongly 35 14 Not so strongly 11 * Don’t know/Refused (VOL.) 1

15 Don’t know/Refused 17 ASK ALL: Q.71 How well do you feel you understand how the tax law has affected you and your family [READ]?

Mar 20-25 2019

Jan 10-15 2018

26 Very well 30 37 Somewhat well 35 20 Not too well 18 13 Not at all well 13 5 Don’t know/Refused (VOL.) 4

NO QUESTIONS 72-74 QUESTIONS 75-77 PREVIOUSLY RELEASED

1 In January 2018 the question read, “Do you approve or disapprove of the tax law passed by Donald Trump and Congress last month?”

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ASK ALL: PARTY In politics TODAY, do you consider yourself a Republican, Democrat, or independent? ASK IF INDEP/NO PREF/OTHER/DK/REF (PARTY=3,4,5,9): PARTYLN As of today do you lean more to the Republican Party or more to the Democratic Party? (VOL.) (VOL.)

No Other (VOL.) Lean Lean Republican Democrat Independent preference party DK/Ref Rep Dem Mar 20-25, 2019 26 30 37 3 1 3 14 19 Jan 9-14, 2019 25 31 40 2 1 2 16 18 Sep 18-24, 2018 25 32 37 3 1 2 15 18 Jun 5-12, 2018 25 31 38 3 1 2 15 18 Apr 25-May 1, 2018 27 28 38 4 1 2 14 19 Mar 7-14, 2018 26 28 41 3 * 1 17 18 Jan 10-15, 2018 26 33 34 3 1 3 12 18 Yearly Totals 2018 25.7 30.8 37.6 3.0 .8 2.0 14.7 18.3 2017 23.6 31.4 39.4 3.3 .6 1.7 15.8 18.7

2016 25.4 32.0 36.5 3.4 .5 2.2 14.6 17.0 2015 23.7 30.4 40.1 3.6 .4 1.8 16.4 17.3 2014 23.2 31.5 39.5 3.1 .7 2.0 16.2 16.5 2013 23.9 32.1 38.3 2.9 .5 2.2 16.0 16.0 2012 24.7 32.6 36.4 3.1 .5 2.7 14.4 16.1 2011 24.3 32.3 37.4 3.1 .4 2.5 15.7 15.6 2010 25.2 32.7 35.2 3.6 .4 2.8 14.5 14.1 2009 23.9 34.4 35.1 3.4 .4 2.8 13.1 15.7 2008 25.7 36.0 31.5 3.6 .3 3.0 10.6 15.2 2007 25.3 32.9 34.1 4.3 .4 2.9 10.9 17.0 2006 27.8 33.1 30.9 4.4 .3 3.4 10.5 15.1 2005 29.3 32.8 30.2 4.5 .3 2.8 10.3 14.9

2004 30.0 33.5 29.5 3.8 .4 3.0 11.7 13.4 2003 30.3 31.5 30.5 4.8 .5 2.5 12.0 12.6 2002 30.4 31.4 29.8 5.0 .7 2.7 12.4 11.6 2001 29.0 33.2 29.5 5.2 .6 2.6 11.9 11.6 2001 Post-Sept 11 30.9 31.8 27.9 5.2 .6 3.6 11.7 9.4 2001 Pre-Sept 11 27.3 34.4 30.9 5.1 .6 1.7 12.1 13.5 2000 28.0 33.4 29.1 5.5 .5 3.6 11.6 11.7 1999 26.6 33.5 33.7 3.9 .5 1.9 13.0 14.5 1998 27.9 33.7 31.1 4.6 .4 2.3 11.6 13.1 1997 28.0 33.4 32.0 4.0 .4 2.3 12.2 14.1 1996 28.9 33.9 31.8 3.0 .4 2.0 12.1 14.9

1995 31.6 30.0 33.7 2.4 .6 1.3 15.1 13.5 1994 30.1 31.5 33.5 1.3 -- 3.6 13.7 12.2 1993 27.4 33.6 34.2 4.4 1.5 2.9 11.5 14.9 1992 27.6 33.7 34.7 1.5 0 2.5 12.6 16.5 1991 30.9 31.4 33.2 0 1.4 3.0 14.7 10.8 1990 30.9 33.2 29.3 1.2 1.9 3.4 12.4 11.3 1989 33 33 34 -- -- -- -- -- 1987 26 35 39 -- -- -- -- --