( ch 4 , part 4 )Data Analysis- 10 pages

To come to the fruition of this paper, a number of resources and databases were used. All through, current literature and sources (those within the last five years) were used. The main search engine is Google. Using google and key terms, it was possible to arrive at current websites which were quite useful. All the websites used were within this range of five years. The use of key search terms such as “older population and care and senior care”, “immigrants and senior care”, “workforce and senior care or elderly citizens”, “immigrant labor and American elderly or disabled people”, and “immigrants and US economy” was key. These were just some of the key search phrases used on the project.

Apart from the use of websites, google scholars also proved rich in current, authoritative, and reliable resources. Besides, most of the materials from Google scholar were quite credible and peer-reviewed. With peer-reviewed articles, the research becomes more reliable and credible. It means that the papers have been well-critiqued and have passed the test of credibility. This database was thus quite useful. The key search terms were quite similar to those used on the websites.

Apart from the websites and google scholar, using the range of online libraries came in handy to enrich the research. Using library catalogs, it was possible to arrive at periodicals and collections of eBooks that could inform the research. Again, the use of key terms was very essential to arrive at relevant information.

Google as the search engine, google scholar, and online libraries were essentially the sources of materials used in this work. However, some of the concepts had little information to back them up. In such cases, deductions from the available resources or publications from recognized institutions were important.

Conceptual Framework

The Human capital theory and Economic growth Theory guided the study. The two theories serve as robust theoretical frameworks for this study as they help develop definitive conclusions regarding the research questions. The Human Capital theory is an economic concept emphasizing the importance of a knowledgeable, educated, and skilled workforce. The theory states that a well-educated workforce contributes positively to a company's economic condition and the country. The theory originated in the 1960s when economists Theodore Schultz and Gary Becker realized the importance of training, knowledge, and education to increase productivity. The two economists argued that training and education are essential in a workforce as they contribute to productivity. In the context of this study, the theory explains that the level of education and training among immigrants impacts the productivity of the US economy.

The legal immigrant workforce's knowledge, education, and training level impact the senior care economy. They can either increase or decrease productivity, resulting in a decline or increase in US GDP. The economic growth theory is also a theoretical concept in economics, explaining that labor productivity has a significant role in economic growth. According to the theory, the real GDP is determined by the level of labor productivity. The origin of economic growth theory dates to around 1776, when Adam smith first published it in his book “The Wealth of Nations.” The theory emphasizes the causes of the increase in labor productivity and how this affects economic growth. In the context of this study, this helps explain the impact of labor productivity among the immigrant workforce on the US economy. Using the theory, it is easy to tell how the immigrant workforce in the senior care economy impacts the supply of jobs and demand for senior care. The theory helps tell whether US GDP increases or decreases due to the increased legal immigrant workforce in the senior care economy.

Economic growth and human capital theories have been extensively used in research. Ehrlich, I., & Pei, Y. (2021) have integrated the two theories to examine the economic impacts of immigration to a country whereby physical and human capital are productive assets. Their research findings indicate that an increase in immigrants increases the job supply. Job supply by immigrants has long-term and short-term impacts on the economic growth of a country. The research study argues that immigrants can contribute to an increased labor force and bring valuable expertise and skills to increase productivity, boosting a country's economy. The study draws inferences from economic growth and human capital theories to come up with this conclusion.

Also, Tibajev's (2022) research utilizes human capital theory to explain the productive skills and knowledge that immigrants bring to a country and the benefits that their skills and expertise bring. The study indicated that human capital is essential for productivity and helps determine the economic growth of a country. An increase in the number of skilled and qualified immigrants in a country results in increased productivity, positively contributing to economic growth. Vidyattama et al. (2022) have also used the human capital theory to examine the impact of immigrant workers on the Australian economy. The study uses the theory to explain the usefulness of migrant workers to the economic growth of a country. From these, it is evident that the two theories have been used severally to explain different aspects affecting a country's or organization's economic status. They are essential in explaining economic growth dependent on human capital, job demand, and labor supply.

Having the two theories utilized in similar research studies as the one here, it is evident that they help enhance the design of this study. The two economic theories are concerned with economic growth, and thus they make sense to this study since the study is all about the US economy. This study deals with how the immigrant workforce in Texas, California, and Florida affects the US senior economy regarding the country's GDP and demand for senior care and supply of jobs. The theories will help make theoretical-based conclusions regarding the research findings, which makes the study more appropriate. The theories will help eliminate possible bias in the research findings. It is possible to tell the relationship between human capital, productivity, and economic growth, helping answer the research questions appropriately. For instance, if there is an increase in job supply and senior care demand, the two theories can be used to tell what this means to the US economy. Also, the relationship between the legal immigrant workforce and GDP is well explained using the human capital theory. The theory explains that an increased skilled and educated workforce produces productivity, boosting the economy. Thus, the legal immigrant workforce in California, Texas, and Florida may raise or lower GDP depending on their training, knowledge, and skills. The immigrant workforce in California is highly skilled. Thus, using the human capital theory, it is possible to conclude that having such a workforce in California’s senior care sector contributes to significant production, raising the country's economic situation. Undeniably, the two theories play a significant role in enhancing the design of this study.

The aging population in the US is growing at an alarming rate, which has contributed to increased demand for senior care from immigrant workers. Texas, California, and Florida are the leading states with the highest aged population. Kilduff (2021) explains that about one-fourth of individuals aged 65 are distributed in California, Texas, and Florida. The three states are among the most populous states in the US, so they record many aging populations. Among the three, Texas has the most populous population and older people. As of 2020, Texas had a population of 29 361 and 3, 874 aged individuals. Figure 1 compares the total population and aged population in Texas, Florida, and California. Comparing the three states, California has the highest aged population as compared to all other states. The increasing aged population in the three states has significantly contributed to the overall rise of the aged population in the US. Since 2019, the aging population in the US has grown by 36%, linked to increased life expectancy. The baby boomers generation, those born in 2019 population of onwards, contribute the highest percentage to the aged population in America. Baby boomers have a higher life expectancy due to improved living standards, such as the availability of improved healthcare services. Medicaid and Medicare programs are critical contributors to increased life expectancy among the baby boomer generation and to the trend in the aging population. In the near future, all baby boomers will be 65 years and above due to an increased life expectancy. People born in the 1990s had lower life expectancy due to the lower quality of life that resulted from the Great Depression. The quality of life improved after the Great Depression, explaining why baby boomers have a high life expectancy. Soon, the aging population in California, Texas, and Florida will double since all baby boomers will be 65 years, doubling the overall US aging population.

Fig 1: Total Resident and Aged Population in Texas, Florida and California

The increased rate of the aging population in the US has significantly contributed to an increased demand for facility-based senior care services. Caring for the aging population has become a fundamental challenge to the US healthcare workforce since the demand for senior care has become higher than the supply of jobs available. Immigrant workers are increasingly filling the positions of facility care health workers in California, Texas, and Florida to help attend to older people. By vision 2030, the number of healthcare workers needed to provide senior care will be 305 million. Currently, legal immigrants in the US are increasingly filling the positions of senior caregivers. They are greatly helping address the critical shortage of senior care providers, such as rural physicians. From a general perspective, foreign-born workers are more skilled and educated than US-born healthcare workers, so they are increasingly filling the positions of senior caregivers. Another reason immigrant workers have become common in the US senior care economy is because they are willing to work at lower remuneration rates than US-born healthcare workers. The increased rate of the legal immigrant workforce significantly impacts the US labor market. A study by Eckstein and Peri (2018) indicates that the increased number of highly-skilled immigrant workforce in the US labor market contributes to the economy's growth. Foreign-born individuals in the US are always determined to learn different skills that will enable them to get good-paying jobs, and by doing so, they contribute to the economic growth of the US. Senior care services are essential to the elderly as they help them live more fulfilling and peaceful life. The number of foreign-born healthcare workers in the US has grown significantly, though the numbers vary geographically. California, Texas, and Florida have the highest immigrant healthcare workforce. This explains why the number of legal immigrants providing senior care services is high in the three states.

The increasing rate of the legal immigrant workforce and the aging population in Texas, Californian, and Florida play a significant role in establishing the impact of the immigrant workforce in the US economy. Eckstein and Peri (2018) have deeply explored the immigrant workforce in the US labor market and their impacts on the US economy. Foreign-born workers in the US offer skills and abilities that are differentiated from those offered by native-born Americans. Other than craftsmanship and competencies, foreign-born workers have added advantages that make them be considered in the US labor market, including work ethics, ability to ensure extreme outdoor conditions, willingness to work, and high stamina. Immigrant workers have played a significant role in the US economy since they enabled it to transform from a manufacturing-based economy to a service-based economy. A service-based economy has dramatically contributed to the country's economic success since the various numbers of individuals in different labor niches contribute to an increase in GDP, which indicates economic progress. From this study, it is evident that the increased number of senior care legal immigrant workforce is more likely to contribute to an increase in the country's GDP and result in economic progress.

As explained earlier, the increasing elderly population in California, Texas, and Florida has raised the demand for senior care jobs. The increased demand for senior care jobs has led to increased recruitment of immigrant workers in healthcare to meet the increasing demand for senior care. Increased accessibility to Medicare and Medicaid programs has also increased the demand for facility-based care among elderly individuals, raising the demand for senior caregivers. Both Medicaid and Medicare are available to seniors in different states but with varying regulations and conditions from one state to another. Medicaid is financed by the federal government and is run by the state government. It offers health insurance to low-income individuals aged 65 years and above. According to Rudowitz, Williams, Hinton, and Garfield in the article "Medicaid Financing: The Basics Medicaid is a countercyclical program, meaning that during economic downturns, more people become eligible and join, but at the same time, governments may incur income drops making it challenging to sustain the state component (Rudowitz, 2021). For example, to obtain Medicaid in California, seniors 65 and older must have a maximum annual income of $18,075 before taxes if the old lives by himself or herself. This is similar to Florida. However, in Texas, for a senior 65 and older living by him or herself to be eligible, his or/her maximum annual income before taxes should be $26,909.

On the other hand, the federal government manages the Medicare program and offers health insurance services to older adults. Medicare has part A (Hospital Insurance). This is constant nationwide, and coverage will be the same no matter what state the senior resides in. For part A: If the old o his or her spouse paid Medicare taxes for approximately ten years while working, the cost would be $0. They pay $278 or $506 a month if they are not eligible, depending on how many years they or their partner worked and contributed to Medicare taxes. The average price for staying in a skilled nursing facility is $0 co-payment for the first 20 days. After that, from days 21- 100, the senior pays $200 daily; if the time exceeds 100 days, the senior has to pay all costs. For home health care, the cost is $0; however, for medical equipment such as hospital beds, walkers, and wheelchairs, the senior must pay 20%. Over 13 million Californians, one out of three, rely on Medicaid for health coverage. Contrarily, California's number of Medicare beneficiaries increased by 11.3% from 5.8 million in 2016 to 6.5 million in 2021. In addition, starting in May 2022, California will be the first state in the union to grant low-income persons 50 years of age and older, regardless of immigration status, full-scope Medicare coverage. Suppose a veteran in California can demonstrate that they cannot afford the cost of a nursing home. Medicare may occasionally cover their long-term home and home care expenses in that case. The increased access to Medicare and Medicaid among elderly individuals in California, Texas, and Florida has significantly increased the demand for senior care jobs.

A study by Sherman et al. (2019) indicates that immigrants have a significant role in the US economy. Foreign-born individuals contribute to about a third of the working population in the US. They help respond to labor shortages for senior caregivers in different states. Their willingness to work and stamina helps them get hired hence helping respond to labor shortages, which in turn helps smoothen the gaps that could otherwise weaken the country’s economy. Sherman et al. (2019) explain that the immigrant workforce helps provide facility-based care to elderly individuals. The increased number of legal immigrant workforce in the senior care sector helps increase the number of workers in the country, which in turn helps boost the economy. The increased number of immigrant workforce in the senior care sector benefits the individual workers and their families and the overall US economy. Immigrants are vital in helping baby boomers with facility-based care services in their retirement years. Sherman et al. (2019) explain that the increased number of immigrants in the senior care economy dramatically helps improve the ratio of the working group versus the retirees. Were it not for the immigrant workforce in the senior care economy, there would be a lower number of working-age adults, which would affect the labor market, resulting in a decline in the country's GDP. The New American Economy also points out that the immigrant workforce greatly benefits the senior care economy in Texas state (Lampert, 2019). Despite foreign-born individuals being about 18.7% of Texas's population, they contribute to a quarter of the state's working group. The contribution of the legal immigrant workforce is intensely felt by facilities that provide elderly care services. The increased labor supply from immigrants is helping meet the elderly care services for baby boomers. Immigrants are helping fill out lower-skilled senior care positions, increasing positions for highly-skilled positions that native-born Americans mostly fill. Essentially, foreign-born workers in Texas fuel its economic growth and help create more opportunities for fellow immigrant workers and native-born US workers. In 2017, immigrant households in Texas had total earnings of $43.8 billion and contributed about $7.3 billion to federal taxes and $3.2 billion to the state (Lampert, 2019). The immigrant workforce in the senior care economy is increasingly contributing to the success of the Texas healthcare sector, which results in economic growth.

Moreover, the Pew Research Center has also examined the relationship between the immigrant workforce and the US economy. The research center indicates that since 2007, immigrants in different states have significantly contributed to the country’s labor force. Fig 2 displays the estimates of the US labor force in 2007 and 2017. The chart helps identify the percentage of change the immigrant workforce brought to the US labor force between 2007 and 2017. In 2017, 17% of the US labor force comprised immigrant workers. The fact that the immigrant workforce contributed to the rise of the US labor force indicates that immigrant workers have the potential to boost the country’s economy. The immigrant workforce is likely to continue increasing in the senior care sector due to the increasing rate of the elderly population in the country. By 2030, all baby boomers will be 65 years and above, meaning they will demand more elderly care services. Hiring more immigrants to provide senior care services means that the US labor force is expanding, resulting in a rise in the country’s GDP.

Fig 2: Estimates of the US Labor Force in 2007 And 2017 (Budiman, 2020)

The increasing rate of immigrant workforce in California, Texas, and Florida also best explains why so many immigrants work in the senior care economy. As stated earlier, California, Texas, and Florida are the most populous states in the US. The three states have continuously contributed to a higher percentage of the US population. In 2015, about 27% of the US population was distributed in any of the three states. This percentage has increased over the years, whereby the three states continue to become more populous. Fig 3 indicates the share of the US population in the three states from the 1910s to 2015. As indicated, the population in the three states has been increasing rapidly throughout the years, which indicates that future three will be more repaid population growth. In the 1990s, the three states accounted for only 34% of the US population, which later increased to 38% in the 2000s.

Fig 3: Share of US population in California, Texas and Florida.

A key reason that has contributed to the rapid population growth rate in California, Texas, and Florida is economic prowess which has attracted immigrants. The high concentration of documented and illegal immigrants in these states contributes to the high population growth rate.56% of legal immigrants live in California, Texas, and Florida. Comparing the three states, California has the highest percentage of legal immigrants, followed by Florida and Texas. The Pew Research Center analyzed the US population in 2018 to determine the number of immigrants eligible for voting in different US states. Their research shows that California leads with the most eligible voters, followed by New York, Florida, and Texas. Their research shows that Texas, California, and Florida have the highest percentage of immigrants in the US Fig 4 indicates the legal immigrant population in millions. As indicated, California leads with a population of 5-5 million legal immigrants, followed by Florida with 205 million and Texas with 108 million immigrants. From the chart, it is thus evident that among all states in the US, Texas, California, and Florida have the highest number of foreign-born individuals. These immigrants have different origins, including Mexico, the Philippines, Vietnam, China, Jamaica, and India.

Fig 4: Legal Immigrant Population in US

The increasing number of immigrants in Texas, California, and Florida has greatly helped address the increased demand for senior care due to the increasingly aging population. As earlier mentioned, immigrant workers are increasingly providing elderly care to old [people. The three states have the highest number of older adults, just as their population is high. The high number of immigrants has helped meet the increasing demand for senior care. The supply of jobs has increased with the increasing number of immigrants in the U.S. Orrenius et al. (2020) conducted a study to determine how immigration affects the US labor force. The study anticipates that the US GDP rate will likely remain lower over the coming years due to various reasons, including low productivity, the mismatch between native-born workers' skills and those needed by employers, and an imbalance between retirees and the working-age group. The study indicates that documenting more immigrants will help address this economic menace and help boost the US labor force and economy. The study admits that documentation of immigrants comes with additional costs that make people view it as unnecessary and a threat to the country’s economy. However, the costs of documenting immigrants are worth the benefits they bring to the US economy. Legal immigrants can enter the US labor force, providing both skilled and nonskilled labor, which significantly contributes to the growth of the country's GDP.

The study places much concern on the increasingly aging population resulting from the declining US labor force. The increased number the elderly in California, Texas, and Florida is making the US move towards a future for old workers. Most baby boomers have reached retirement age, and all will be retirees in the next few years. The working-age population is declining and is more likely to decline in the near future. Orrenius et al. (2020) express their concern about the danger that awaits the US if nothing is done to counter the declining labor force in the US. They emphasize that employing immigrant workers to replace the aging workers in different sectors, including healthcare, will help address the menace that awaits the US Immigrant workforce in healthcare. Other sectors will raise the US labor force, contributing to DGP growth.

Bruce-Tagoe (2022) also conducted a study to determine the impact of the immigrant workforce on the US labor force. The study uses a dataset from seven states: Texas, California, Massachusetts, New Jersey, Florida, New York, and Illinois. The dataset reveals that the seven states have the highest rate of immigrant workers. These workers help increase labor supply in different sectors of the US, including the healthcare sector, whereby more facility-based senior caregivers are needed. The study has acknowledged how some people view immigrant workers as threatening American jobs. However, it emphasizes the positive side of it, whereby immigrant workers help raise the country’s GDP. Immigrants positively influence the country’s labor market by reducing unemployment. As they take up lower-skilled jobs, they help create more opportunities whereby native-born Americans fill the highly-skilled positions.

Synthesis of Literature Findings

Several studies have been conducted on the growing rate of the aging population and immigrant workers in the US. The aging population is growing alarmingly and is expected to grow more as all baby boomers will be 65 years and above. The growing rate of the elderly has led to increased hiring of the immigrant workforce to help provide senior care services to this population. The existing literature has explained the relationship between the increased immigrant workforce in the US labor market and the US economy. Immigrant workers are expanding the US labor market, helping raise the country's GDP. Immigrant workers are helping address labor shortages in different sectors, including the increased demand for senior care. Existing literature has failed to focus on the legal immigrant workforce in the senior economy. Little study has been conducted to ascertain how the legal immigrant workforce providing senior care services in California, Texas, and Florida will affect the economic progress of the United States. Also, the existing literature creates a dilemma regarding legal immigrants' impacts on the US economy, with some arguing that the demand for senior care will rise.

In contrast, the supply of jobs will decrease, and others state that the increased use of immigrant labor in senior care will create a balance between the demand for senior care and the supply of jobs. This study helps address this dilemma, which is a gap in the literature concerning the senior legal immigrant workforce and the US economy. It complements the existing literature to help determine whether GDP has increased or decreased over the years based on the legal immigrant workforce in the senior care economy. The study focuses on California, Texas, and Florida because they are the most populous states and are key determiners of the US economy. They also have the highest population of legal immigrants and a high number of the aged population. The study integrates economic growth and human capital theories to derive conclusions from the existing literature and help address the gap.

The issue of the rate of immigrants in the US, the elderly population, and the US economy compared to the immigrant workforce are key themes addressed in this literature review section. The immigrant population is increasing alarmingly in California, Texas, and Florida. Documentation of immigrants has become easy hence the increased number of foreign-born individuals in the United States. This has contributed to the already high population in California, Texas, and Florida. Also, the elderly population is increasing ad is projected to grow higher in the coming years. Most of the baby boomers' generation is 65 years and above. In the coming years, they will all have attained retirement age, contributing to an increased rate of the elderly population. An increasing number of individuals with 65 years and above has raised the demand for senior care jobs. The elderly deserve facility-based care from healthcare providers to age gracefully. Different US states highly rely on the immigrant workforce to provide senior care services to their age population. Immigrants are always willing to work under extreme conditions and accept lower wages than native-born workers. Also, the senior care sector's immigrant workforce helps address the cultural divert issue by eliminating language and communication barriers. The US labor market has experienced enormous over the recent years due to the increased number of immigrant workers in the US. Although some researchers expressed concerns about the dangers hiring immigrants would bring to the US economy, most have explained that it will boost the country’s economy. In some sense, hiring immigrant workers means taking away American jobs. However, doing so helps increase the number of employed individuals in the US, contributing to the country’s GDP. With this available literature, the study will make concise conclusions regarding the impact of the immigrant workforce in the senior care economy.

References