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296 C h a p t e r 9 R A C E A N D E T H N I C I T Y

Cultural Diversity in the United States Glimpsing the Future:The Shifting U.S. Racial–Ethnic Mix

D uring the next twenty-five years, the population of the United States is expected to grow by about 22 percent. To see what the U.S. popula-

tion will look like at that time, can we simply add 22 percent to our current racial–ethnic mix? The answer is a resounding no. As you can see from Figure 9.11, some groups will grow much more than others, giving us a different-looking United States. Some of the changes in the U.S. racial–ethnic mix will be dramatic. In twenty- five years, one of every nineteen Americans is expected to have an Asian background, and in the most dramatic change, almost one of four is expected to be of Latino ancestry.

The basic causes of this fundamental shift are the racial–ethnic groups’ different rates of immigration and birth. Both will change the groups’ proportions of the U.S. population, but immigration is by far the more im- portant. From Figure 9.11, you can see that the propor- tion of non-Hispanic whites is expected to shrink, that of Native Americans to remain the same, that of African Americans to increase slightly, and that of Latinos to in- crease sharply.

For Your Consideration This shifting racial–ethnic mix is one of the most sig- nificant events occurring in the United States.To bet- ter understand its implications, apply the three theoretical perspectives.

Use the conflict perspective to identify the groups that are likely to be threatened by this change. Over what resources are struggles likely to develop? What impact do you think this changing mix might have on European Americans? On Latinos? On African Ameri- cans? On Asian Americans? On Native Americans? What changes in immigration laws (or their enforce- ment) can you anticipate?

To apply the symbolic interactionist perspective, con- sider how groups might perceive one another differ- ently as their proportion of the population changes. How do you think that this changed perception will affect people’s behavior?

To apply the functionalist perspective, try to deter- mine how each racial-ethnic group will benefit from this changing mix. How will other parts of society (such as businesses) benefit? What functions and dys- functions can you anticipate for politics, economics, education, or religion?

European descent Latinos African Americans Asian Americans Native Americans Claim membership in two or more groups

Year 2025 345 million

58%

17.5% 12.5% 5.2%

0.8%

6%

Year 2050 400 million

47%

22.5%

13%

6.7% 0.8%

10%

Year 2000 281 million

69.4%

12.5% 12.1% 3.7%

0.7% 1.6%

FIGURE 9.11 Projections of the Racial–Ethnic Makeup of the U.S. Population

Sources: By the author. Based on Bernstein and Bergman 2003; Statistical Abstract of the United States 2004:Table 16; 2005:Table 16. I modified the projections based on the new census category of membership in two or more groups and trends in interethnic marriage.

This national debate crystallized with a series of controversial rulings. One of the most significant was Proposition 209, a 1996 amendment to the California state constitution. This amendment made it illegal to give preference to minorities and women in hiring, pro- motion, and college admissions. Despite appeals by a coalition of civil rights groups, the U.S. Supreme Court upheld this California law.

United States

United States