Forecasting Applications

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2 years

Every firm must differentiate itself from the competitors, from selling the latest and best items to providing exceptional service. Highline Financial Services Company is no different than other businesses. It is important for the firm's success to differentiate itself from other firms. Business manager Freddie Muck needs to use the data presented to him to de- termine whether he needs to hire or fire any staff for the future year. Correctly completing this task will assist the business in meeting its objectives and ensuring the organization's long-term viability. The case study is of a financial service provider business named Highline Company. It sells three categories of commodities: A, B, and C. The

business's sales rate has been anticipated for two diverse ages throughout the four quarters annually. In the first year, commodity A has been changing starting quarter 1 to quar- ter four considerably. Equated to years 1 and 2, commodity A indicates a rising trend relating the annual quarters. For product B, in the first year, the demand estimate declined from sixty to forty five in the first two quarters, and the condition was undistinguishable for the two quarters. Correlating the two ages, the trade’s anticipation for product B in the very first quarter dropped from ninety five in year 1 to eighty five in the second year (Stevenson, 2018). A reduction was also seen in the second, third and fourth quarters by which the demand projection had been moving lower. As for commodity C, increase-decrease variations have been observed during year one and a similar scenario happened in year 2.

Comparing the results attained for the two years, for the first 2 quarters, the trades prediction for product C significantly declined while in the third quarter the demand de-

tained steady at one hundred and ten while for the fourth quarter development of the market by 10 was recorded where it persisted at 100 in 2nd year from 90 in first year. Forecasted demand for all three products A, B, and C for the next four quarters, as well as the forecasting method used for the scenario Quarter product A product B product C

1 85 73 110

2 57 65 59

3 125 79 111

4 94 34 112

The demand projection for the items A, B, and C in third year is shown in the table above, divided into four quarters. It should be noted that product A is anticipated to dis-

play some down and up variations all over the year, as we witness a drop in auctions from quarter 1 to 2, then the demand prediction increases by 67 to 125 in quarter 3. The an- ticipated statistics were estimated using a barometric demand forecasting method. For product C, demand is predicted to fall by 52 points to a range of 60 from 112 in quar-

ters three and four, while demand remains steady at a relative of 110 in quarters three and four. Thus, at this time, we can state that no variable component, such as pricing, con- sumer income, or any other significant factor has altered in the last two quarters. Product B is predicted to decline from the first to the second quarter, climb to the third quarter by 13, and then decrease to the fourth quarter. The reasons for this is that if the firm raised the price factor, we would anticipate demand to move negatively, resulting in a fall, which was not the case. The barometer demand forecasting technique is most suited for this situation since we had previously received demand estimates for the previous

two years, making it easier for me to predict the expected demand for the four quarters in the third year. The pattern during the previous two years could be read, and hence the estimations for the third year were simple to forecast. In this case scenario, the economic indicator is a coincidental signal because there is a rising and falling contemporaneous fluctuation regarding the degree of dynamic economic activity (Sharma et al., 2020). As in the preceding example, it assists a person in understanding the future developments of a corporation (Bourdeau et al., 2019). Reasons for or against using the same forecasting technique for all products

For this case situation, I decided to apply the same way of demand forecasting, the Barometric method, because primary data was given for all of the commodities.

Demand Forecasting offers organizations an approximation of the quantity of products services that their customers will buy shortly. Demand influences critical company assump- tions such as turnover, profitability, net income, expenditure, vulnerability assessments, remedial actions, production scheduling, etc. The barometer technique is done in such a manner as to create an index of significant economic variables and anticipate future trends by evaluating their changes. In analyzing the possible trends, a time series of numer- ous indicators are created. There were also additional variable considerations to take that were attributable to differences from one quarter to another. Furthermore, because we had already gathered historical information for the sales forecasts, we could have employed a quantitative system for data projection, primarily the appropriate forecasting tech- nique. Furthermore, in our example, there were no shifting variables like promotion, competitiveness, or advertisements, but this strategy can still be utilized to estimate con-

sumption in part. Advantages of Utilizing a Formalized Technique for Commodity Forecasting

Based on the performance of product A, B and C, it will be simple to evaluate which three products can be introduced into worldwide markets as a formal estimation assists

an organization or country in planning to harmonize products imports and exports. The formalized forecasting model also aids in the development of advertising and price

strategies. As in the instance of product B, which has shown a reduction across the four quarters, the supplier may elect to lower the pricing to increase market needs. It

would also carry out promotions to raise awareness of the product. An organization can benefit from a formalized approach in a variety of ways. A formalized forecast-

ing technique should be preferred because these estimates are for general usage inside a business organization. The next advantage of a formalized prediction model is that it aids in the production and supply chain planning process (Delli Gatti & Grazzini, 2020). When demand is effectively projected, management will be able to determine how

many products are required in the market and, as a result, will be capable of maintaining acceptable inventory levels. A formalized forecasting technique assists management

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in making product selection decisions. In this example, Highline Limited may discontinue commodity B because it has consistently performed poorly, as seen by demand over

the last four quarters. Recommendations can also be established on how the commodity might be upgraded and improved to generate additional demand because it is compli- mentary. A standardized forecasting method also helps in justifying some of the vulnerabilities related with commercial operations. A structured forecasting method rallies

performance analysis and assessment for supplies A, B, and C. It will also be helpful to identify which commodity best serves customers based on the amount of demand a com- modity will attract. A systematic method to budget planning will ensure proper budget planning. This will help in choosing the amount of resources required for every product.

However, even for the top-performing commodities, such as C, the corporate can utilize this approach to come up with a budget for product development to be suitable for

global markets usage. Finally, a formalized strategy is to make it easier for an organization to monitor its sales. As a result, it will develop annual sales expectations for goods A, B, and C. In concluding, focusing on my case situation, a lot of attention should be reflected mainly on product B to see and try to find the variables that could be attracting a signifi- cantly lower impact of increased to the other goods A and B. Inappropriately, except for product C throughout the last two quarters. Demand has not been consistent in all

products since; there has been a reduction in quarters 2 and 4. This should be considered for rivalry with other companies selling similar merchandise offerings. The market for service A will rise at a stable rate, whereas service B will grow at a negative rate, necessitating management intervention. This approach of sales forecasts is objective and straight- forward in the sense that the conclusions are not skewed in any manner.

References

Bourdeau, M., Zhai, X. qiang, Nefzaoui, E., Guo, X., & Chatellier, P. (2019). Modeling and forecasting building energy consumption: A review of data-driven techniques. Sustainable Cities and Society, 48. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scs.2019.101533

Delli Gatti, D., & Grazzini, J. (2020). Rising to the challenge: Bayesian estimation and forecasting techniques for macroeconomic Agent-Based Models. Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization, 178, 875–902. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jebo.2020.07.023

Sharma, H. K., Kumari, K., & Kar, S. (2020). A rough set approach for forecasting models. Decision Making: Applications in Management and Engineering, 3(1), 1–21. Stevenson, W. (2018). Operations management (13th ed.).

New York, NY: McGraw-Hill Irwin. ISBN-13:9781259667473

Highline Financial Services Company Case Study

Highline Financial Services' leadership must estimate the future for the company's

financial performance over the next four quarters. Various difficulties should

be evaluated. There

is a fluctuating demand trend in particular. Consequently, the data supplied is insufficient to

calculate seasonal relationships. As a result, approaches like the centered moving average or

simple

average techniques are challenging to i

mplement. Other tools, however, can help make

essential forecasts. Overall, this prognosis may have substantial ramifications for this company's

senior management. This information is essential for establishing the number of staff who should

be employed or

fired. Furthermore, business managers will probably need to modify some of

5 6 5

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Source Matches (32)

their current procedures to enhance demand for their services.

Historical trends faced by the firm for the products A, B, and C in 2 years

Every firm must differentiate itself from

the competitors, from selling the latest and best

items to providing exceptional service. Highline Financial Services Company is no different than

other businesses. It is important for the firm's success to differentiate itself from other firms.

Business

manager Freddie Muck needs to use the data presented to him to determine whether he

needs to hire or fire any staff for the future year. Correctly completing this task will assist the

business in meeting its objectives and ensuring the organization's long

term viability.

The case study is of a financial service provider business named Highline Company. It

sells three categories of commodities: A, B, and C. The business's sales rate has been anticipated

for two diverse ages throughout the four quarters annua

lly. In the first year, commodity A has

been changing starting quarter 1 to quarter four considerably. Equated to years 1 and 2,

commodity A indicates a rising trend relating the annual quarters. For product B, in the first year,

Highline Financial Services Company Case Study Highline Financial Services' leadership must estimate the future for the company's financial performance over the next four

quarters. Various difficulties should be evaluated. There is a fluctuating demand trend in particular. Consequently, the data supplied is insufficient to calculate seasonal relation- ships. As a result, approaches like the centered moving average or simple-average techniques are challenging to implement. Other tools, however, can help make essential fore- casts. Overall, this prognosis may have substantial ramifications for this company's senior management. This information is essential for establishing the number of staff who should be employed or fired. Furthermore, business managers will probably need to modify some of their current procedures to enhance demand for their services. Historical trends faced by the firm for the products A, B, and C in 2 years Every firm must differentiate itself from the competitors, from selling the latest and best items to providing excep- tional service. Highline Financial Services Company is no different than other businesses. It is important for the firm's success to differentiate itself from other firms. Business man- ager Freddie Muck needs to use the data presented to him to determine whether he needs to hire or fire any staff for the future year. Correctly completing this task will assist the business in meeting its objectives and ensuring the organization's long-term viability. The case study is of a financial service provider business named Highline Company. It sells three categories of commodities: A, B, and C. The business's sales rate has been anticipated for two diverse ages throughout the four quarters annually. In the first year, com-

modity A has been changing starting quarter 1 to quarter four considerably. Equated to years 1 and 2, commodity A indicates a rising trend relating the annual quarters. For prod- uct B, in the first year,

10/1/21, 3:41 PM Originality Report

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Student paper 91%

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Highline Financial Services Company Case Study

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Highline Financial Services Case Study

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Highline Financial Services'

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Highline Financial Services

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Historical trends faced by the firm for the products A, B, and C in 2 years

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Historical Trends for the Three Products Over 2 Years

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A, B, and C.

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A B C

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Comparing the results attained for the two years, for the first 2 quarters, the trades prediction for product C significantly declined while in the third quarter the demand detained steady at one hundred and ten while for the fourth quarter de- velopment of the market by 10 was recorded where it persisted at 100 in 2nd year from 90 in first year.

Original source

In a comparison of the results for the two years, for the first two quarters, the demand forecast for product C decreased while in the third quarter the demand remained constant at 110 while for the fourth quarter an increase in demand by 10 was recorded where it stood at 100 in year2 from 90 in year 1 (Nahmias, 2009)

Student paper

2 57 65 59

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2 57 65 60

Student paper

It should be noted that product A is anticipated to display some down and up variations all over the year, as we witness a drop in auctions from quarter 1 to 2, then the demand prediction increases by 67 to 125 in quarter 3.

Original source

It can be noted that through the year, product A is expected to show some up and down fluctuations as we can depict a decrease in demand from quarter 1 to 2 while in quarter 3 the demand forecast increases by 67 to 124

10/1/21, 3:41 PM Originality Report

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Student paper 64%

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For product C, demand is predicted to fall by 52 points to a range of 60 from 112 in quarters three and four, while de- mand remains steady at a relative of 110 in quarters three and four. Thus, at this time, we can state that no variable com- ponent, such as pricing, consumer income, or any other significant factor has altered in the last two quarters. Product B is predicted to decline from the first to the second quarter, climb to the third quarter by 13, and then decrease to the fourth quarter.

Original source

For product C, the demand forecast is expected to decrease by 51 at a range of 60 from 111 while in quarters three and four, the demand forecast remained unchanged at a relative of 110 It is at such a point we can say that no variable factor was changed such as the prices, consumer income and any other relevant factor in the two quarters For product B, it is expected that there will be a decrease from the first quarter to the second while it will increase to the third quarter by 13 and later to quarter 4 it decreases

Student paper

The barometer demand forecasting technique is most suited for this situation since we had previously received demand estimates for the previous two years, making it easier for me to predict the expected demand for the four quarters in the third year. The pattern during the previous two years could be read, and hence the estimations for the third year were simple to forecast.

Original source

Because we had had previous two-year demand projections, the barometer method of demand forecasting was best suited for this circumstance, and it was easy for me to predict the predicted demand for the four quarters in the third year The pattern during the previous two years could be read, making the estimates for the third year simple to anticipate

Student paper

For this case situation, I decided to apply the same way of demand forecasting, the Barometric method, because primary data was given for all of the commodities.

Original source

Because all of the products had previous data, I decided to apply the same way of demand forecasting, which is the Barometric method, for this example scenario

Student paper

Furthermore, in our example, there were no shifting variables like promotion, competitiveness, or advertisements, but this strategy can still be utilized to estimate consumption in part.

Original source

However, in our example, there were no shifting variables like as promotion, competition, or advertising, but this method can still be utilized to estimate demand to some extent

Student paper

Based on the performance of product A, B and C, it will be simple to evaluate which three products can be introduced into worldwide markets as a formal estimation assists an organization or country in planning to harmonize products imports and exports.

Original source

Based on their performance, it will be simple to evaluate which of the three products can be introduced into worldwide markets

Student paper

The formalized forecasting model also aids in the development of advertising and price strategies.

Original source

A formalized forecasting technique also aids in the development of advertising and price strategies (Barlas, & Gunduz, 2011)

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Student paper 80%

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It would also carry out promotions to raise awareness of the product.

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It would also carry out advertising in order to raise awareness of the product

Student paper

An organization can benefit from a formalized approach in a variety of ways.

Original source

An organization can benefit from a formalized approach in a number of ways

Student paper

A formalized forecasting technique should be preferred because these estimates are for general usage inside a business organization.

Original source

As these estimates are for general usage inside a corporate organization, a formalized forecasting method should be pre- ferred (Daganzo, 2014)

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When demand is effectively projected, management will be able to determine how many products are required in the market and, as a result, will be capable of maintaining acceptable inventory levels.

Original source

When demand is reliably projected, an organization will be able to determine how many products are required in the market, allowing it to maintain adequate inventory levels (Sumets, 2018)

Student paper

A formalized forecasting technique assists management in making product selection decisions.

Original source

A formalized forecasting method helps organizations in making product selection decisions

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In this example, Highline Limited may discontinue commodity B because it has consistently performed poorly, as seen by demand over the last four quarters.

Original source

In this example, Highline Limited may opt to discontinue product B since it has consistently performed poorly, as seen by demand over the last four quarters

Student paper

A structured forecasting method rallies performance analysis and assessment for supplies A, B, and C.

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For goods A, B, and C, a systematic method to forecasting improves performance assessment and evaluation

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However, even for the top-performing commodities, such as C, the corporate can utilize this approach to come up with a budget for product development to be suitable for global markets usage.

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Furthermore, even for the best-performing products, such as C, the business can utilize this strategy to set a budget for product improvement so that it is suitable for usage in global markets

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Inappropriately, except for product C throughout the last two quarters.

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however, except for product C in the last two quarters

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Operations management (13th ed.). New York, NY:

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Operations management (13th ed.) New York, NY

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McGraw-Hill Irwin.

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McGraw-Hill/Irwin

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ISBN-13:9781259667473

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ISBN-13:9781259667473

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Highline Financial Services Company Case Study

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Highline Financial Services Case Study

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Highline Financial Services'

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Highline Financial Services

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financial performance over the next four quarters.

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next four quarters

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Historical trends faced by the firm for the products A, B, and C in 2 years

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Historical Trends for the Three Products Over 2 Years

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A, B, and C.

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A B C

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Highline Financial Services Company Case Study Highline Financial Services'

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In the case study of Highline Financial Services the company provide three services to

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A, B, and C.

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A B C