Operation module 4
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SafeAssign Originality Report (Current Semester - الفصل الحالي)MGT-530: Operation Management 143… • Module 04: Critical Thinking Assignment
%89Total Score: High riskSARAH ALSUBAIE Submission UUID: 926f5a14-10b3-d87b-2038-fb17799a6016
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MGT530-14222
Forecasting (MGT530) – (Operation Management) Colorado State University – Saudi Electronic University
100 pts
Sarah Alsubaie
G200003625
Dr.Lind
October 1, 2020
Forecasting
These data trends do show cyclical variations as the data from the textbook is not on a downward or upward trend. Also, the quarterly demands of sales do not show doesn't show any linear trend of upward or downward pattern in a well-detailed manner. The demand can as well increase in the third quarter. The
barometer technique of demand forecasting was best suited for this situation because we had previous two-year demand estimates, and it was easy for me to predict the predicted demand for the four quarters in the third year. The trend from the previous two years could be deduced, making the third-year forecasts simple to predict. Because there is a simultaneous up and down movement based on the degree of changeable economic activity in this case scenario, the economic
indicator is a coincidental indicator. These economic indicators, as seen in the example above, assist a person in predicting the future of a business. PRODUCT A
Quarter Y1 Y2 Variation Y3=Y2
1 95 85 -10 81+Variation
2 85 75 -10 57
3 92 85 -7 124
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Source Matches (25)
4 65 50 -15 95
PRODUCT B Quarter Y1 Y2 Variation Variation
1 93 9 9 110
2 90 -15 -15 60
3 110 0 0 110
4 90 10 10 110
PRODUCT C Quarter Y1 Y2 Variation Y3=Y2
1 60 72 12 81+Variation
2 45 51 6 57
3 100 112 12 124
4 75 85 10 95
From the above data, what is evident is that B has the lowest rates. Service B happens to have its lowest demand in the excessive years. This forecast would help
me on how to increase or boost these sales and how to increase the cost of the sales. We can see service C being on a good peak in its third year. I should be concerned about the sales of product B as the sales have a risk of being lower if not taken into considerations (Stevenson, 2020).
Why wasn't each product forecasted using the same method? Because all of the products had historical data, I decided to use the Barometric method of demand forecasting for this example situation. Other variables that contributed to the shifts from one quarter to the next were also taken into account. We could have
used a statistical technique to data forecasting, specifically the trend projection method, because we had previously gathered demand data. Despite the fact that
there were no moving variables in our case, such as promotion, competition, or advertising, this method can still be used to estimate demand to some extent. Production will be planned based on demand rather than which things to create and the batch size, and will be based on orders and inventory levels. This will be a methodical approach. a) The problem of being overstocked and/or understocked will be solved. b) In the future, forecasting will take a more scientific approach
to drawing up production plans this will help to manage the problem of rising raw material costs in the future. Due to these estimates are for overall usage
within a company organization, it is preferable to use a formalized forecasting approach. A formalized approach can benefit an organization in a variety of ways. The first benefit of using a formalized forecasting method is that it helps with production and inventory management planning. When demand is accurately forecasted, an organization can determine how many products are needed in the market, allowing it to keep adequate inventory levels (Sumets, 2018). A formal demand
forecast assists a company or country in planning for the coordination of product A, B, and C exports and imports. It will be simple to determine which of the
three products can be introduced into global markets based on their performance. The use of a formalized forecasting approach can also aid in the development of advertising and pricing
strategies. As with product B, which has seen a drop in demand over the last four quarters, the service firm may decide to lower pricing in an effort to boost
demand. It would also engage in promotional activities to increase product awareness. An organization's decision-making on product choices is aided by a defined forecasting strategy. In this example, Highline Limited may opt to discontinue product B since it has consistently performed poorly, as seen by demand over the last four quarters. Decisions can also be taken on how to upgrade and improve the product so that it attracts more demand as a complementary product
(Stevenson, 2020). A standardized forecasting method can also help to mitigate some of the risks associated with business operations. Forecasting accuracy will
ensure that business operations operate smoothly, and that product enhancement efforts will not be scuttled. For goods A, B, and C, a systematic method to
forecasting improves performance assessment and evaluation. Looking at the amount of demand a product will draw, it will be easy to choose which product best satisfies the buyers. A methodical approach to budget development will ensure that the budget is properly prepared. This will determine how many resources
are needed for which products.
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In the case of product B, for example, the company will be able to estimate how much money it will require to improve its performance (Sumets, 2018).
Furthermore, even for the best-performing products, such as C, the company can use this strategy to set a budget for product improvement in order to make it suitable for use in global markets. Finally, a formalized method enables a company to better oversee its sales and, as a result, set realistic yearly sales targets for goods A, B, and C.
Reference
Sumets, A. (2018). Key aspects of the modern paradigm of operational management. Agricultural and Resource Economics: International Scientific E-Journal, 4(3),
129-147. Devi, W. W. (2018). PENGENDALIAN PERSEDIAAN BAHAN BAKU UNTUK MENINGKATKAN KELANCARAN PROSES PRODUKSI PADA CV. SURYA INDAH
MULIA MADIUN (Doctoral dissertation, Universities Muhammadiyah Ponorogo). Stevenson, W. J. (2021). Operations Management. McGraw-Hill Education/Stony
Brook University.
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10/20/2021 Originality Report
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Forecasting (MGT530) – (Operation Management) Colorado State University – Saudi Electronic University
Original source
MGT530 – Operation Management Colorado State University – Global Campus
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October 1, 2020
Original source
October 1, 2020
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The demand can as well increase in the third quarter.
Original source
Demand in the third quarter may also increase
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Student paper
The barometer technique of demand forecasting was best suited for this situation because we had previous two-year demand estimates, and it was easy for me to predict the predicted demand for the four quarters in the third year.
Original source
Because we already had previous two-year demand projections, the barometer method of demand forecasting was best suited for our circumstance, and I was able to predict predicted demand for the four quarters of the third year with ease
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Student paper
Because there is a simultaneous up and down movement based on the degree of changeable economic activity in this case scenario, the economic indicator is a coincidental indicator. These economic indicators, as seen in the example above, assist a person in predicting the future of a business.
Original source
Because there is a simultaneous up and down movement based on the amount of variable economic activity, the economic indicator in this case scenario is a coincidental indicator These economic indicators, as in the example above, assist an individual in predicting the business's possible future developments (Ferbar Tratar, 2015)
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Student paper
PRODUCT A Quarter Y1 Y2 Variation Y3=Y2 1 95 85 -10 81+Variation 2 85 75 -10 57 3 92 85 -7 124
Original source
Quarter Y1 Y2 Variation Y3=Y2 1 95 85 -10 81+Variation 2 85 75 -10 57 3 92 85 -7 124
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4 65 50 -15 95 PRODUCT B Quarter Y1 Y2 Variation Variation 1 93 9 9 110 2 90 -15 -15 60
Original source
4 65 50 -15 95 Quarter Y1 Y2 Variation Variation 1 93 9 9 110 2 90 -15 -15 60
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Student paper
3 110 0 0 110 4 90 10 10 110 PRODUCT C Quarter Y1 Y2 Variation Y3=Y2 1 60 72 12 81+Variation
Original source
3 110 0 0 110 4 90 10 10 110 Quarter Y1 Y2 Variation Y3=Y2 1 60 72 12 81+Variation
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2 45 51 6 57 3 100 112 12 124 4 75 85 10 95
Original source
2 45 51 6 57 3 100 112 12 124 4 75 85 10 95
10/20/2021 Originality Report
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This forecast would help me on how to increase or boost these sales and how to increase the cost of the sales. We can see service C being on a good peak in its third year.
Original source
to increase or promote these sales and how to increase the cost of sales We can see that service C is at a very good peak in the third year
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Student paper
Other variables that contributed to the shifts from one quarter to the next were also taken into account.
Original source
Other variable factors that were responsible for the changes from one quarter to the next were also taken into account
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Student paper
Despite the fact that there were no moving variables in our case, such as promotion, competition, or advertising, this method can still be used to estimate demand to some extent.
Original source
However, in our example, there were no shifting variables like as promotion, competition, or advertising, but this method can still be utilized to estimate demand to some extent
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b) In the future, forecasting will take a more scientific approach to drawing up production plans this will help to manage the problem of rising raw material costs in the future.
Original source
This will help manage the problem of rising raw material costs in the future
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Student paper
Due to these estimates are for overall usage within a company organization, it is preferable to use a formalized forecasting approach. A formalized approach can benefit an organization in a variety of ways. The first benefit of using a formalized forecasting method is that it helps with production and inventory management planning.
Original source
The adoption of a formalized forecasting approach should be preferred because these estimates are for overall usage within a company organization An organization can benefit from a formalized approach in a number of ways The first advantage of a formalized forecasting method is that it aids in production and inventory management planning
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Student paper
A formal demand forecast assists a company or country in planning for the coordination of product A, B, and C exports and imports.
Original source
A formal demand forecast assists the company or country in planning for the coordination of product A, B, and C exports and imports
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Student paper
It will be simple to determine which of the three products can be introduced into global markets based on their performance.
Original source
Based on their performance, it will be simple to evaluate which of the three products can be introduced into worldwide markets
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Student paper
As with product B, which has seen a drop in demand over the last four quarters, the service firm may decide to lower pricing in an effort to boost demand. It would also engage in promotional activities to increase product awareness. An organization's decision-making on product choices is aided by a defined forecasting strategy. In this example, Highline Limited may opt to discontinue product B since it has consistently performed poorly, as seen by demand over the last four quarters.
Original source
As in the case of product B, which has seen a fall in demand over the last four quarters, the service firm may decide to lower pricing in an attempt to boost demand It would also carry out promotional activities in order to raise product awareness An organization's decision-making on product choices is aided by a defined forecasting strategy In this example, Highline Limited may opt to discontinue product B since it has consistently performed poorly, as seen by demand over the last four quarters
10/20/2021 Originality Report
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Decisions can also be taken on how to upgrade and improve the product so that it attracts more demand as a complementary product (Stevenson, 2020).
Original source
Decisions can also be taken on how to develop and improve the product so that it attracts greater demand as a supplementary product (Barlas, & Gunduz, 2011)
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A standardized forecasting method can also help to mitigate some of the risks associated with business operations.
Original source
A standardized forecasting method can also help to mitigate some of the risks associated with business operations
4
Student paper
For goods A, B, and C, a systematic method to forecasting improves performance assessment and evaluation. Looking at the amount of demand a product will draw, it will be easy to choose which product best satisfies the buyers. A methodical approach to budget development will ensure that the budget is properly prepared.
Original source
For goods A, B, and C, a systematic method to forecasting improves performance assessment and evaluation Looking at the amount of demand a product will draw, it will be easy to choose which product best satisfies the buyers A systematic approach to budget formation will ensure that the budget is properly prepared
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Student paper
This will determine how many resources are needed for which products.
Original source
This will determine which products require and how many resources
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In the case of product B, for example, the company will be able to estimate how much money it will require to improve its performance (Sumets, 2018). Furthermore, even for the best-performing products, such as C, the company can use this strategy to set a budget for product improvement in order to make it suitable for use in global markets. Finally, a formalized method enables a company to better oversee its sales and, as a result, set realistic yearly sales targets for goods A, B, and C.
Original source
For example, in the instance of product B, the company will be able to estimate how much money it will need to improve its performance Furthermore, even for the best- performing products, such as C, the business can utilize this strategy to set a budget for product improvement so that it is suitable for usage in global markets Finally, a formalized method allows a firm to better oversee its sales and, as a result, create realistic sales targets for goods A, B, and C on a yearly basis
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Student paper
Key aspects of the modern paradigm of operational management. Agricultural and Resource Economics: International Scientific E-Journal, 4(3), 129-147.
Original source
Key aspects of the modern paradigm of operational Agricultural and Resource Economics International Scientific E-Journal, 4(3),
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Student paper
PENGENDALIAN PERSEDIAAN BAHAN BAKU UNTUK MENINGKATKAN KELANCARAN PROSES PRODUKSI PADA CV. SURYA INDAH MULIA MADIUN (Doctoral dissertation, Universities Muhammadiyah Ponorogo).
Original source
MENINGKATKAN KELANCARAN PROSES PRODUKSI PADA CV MADIUN (Doctoral dissertation, Universitas Muhammadiyah Ponorogo)
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Student paper
McGraw-Hill Education/Stony Brook University.
Original source
McGraw-Hill Education
