excel

1. The objective of this question is to learn something about the forecasting methods presented in class and in the book (Forecasting Chapter). Read the original problems; then answer the questions (A-D) below: ( You can use the forecasting templates but you will learn a lot more by constructing the spreadsheets to do the analysis by yourself.)

Original Problems (13.31 edition 2, 10.30 edition 3, 10.32 edition 4)

A. After considering seasonal effects, compare both the MAD and MSE values for the

(NOTE - both years of data are given above, use both years to answer questions.)

1. the last-value method (moving average with 1 month)

2. the moving-average method (based on the most recent three months)

3. the exponential smoothing method (with an initial seasonally adjusted estimate of 80 and a smoothing constant of α = 0.2)

4. the exponential smoothing method with trend (with an initial seasonally adjusted estimate of 80, an initial 0 trend, and smoothing constants of α = 0.2, β = 0.2)

when they are applied retrospectively to the past two years.

B. Based on these results, which forecasting method would you recommend that Transcontinental Airlines use in the future

C. Use your method from B to forecast the average number of passengers in the next January.