What are some of the inconsistencies in predicting future behavior using historical data and how might HR address these issues?
RESPONSE 100-150 WORDS.
1. Kelly
Organizations use a variety of different tools and methods to try to predict behavior. For example, we use interviews to predict whether or not a candidate would be a good fit for the organization. Even tools like the Big 5 personality test are used to gauge how an individual would behave in certain situations. As we learned in the past modules, human capital is one of a company’s most significant assets. The way employees act, perform, and think can make or break a company. With human capital being so valuable, it only makes sense that organizations make it a big deal to measure human behavior.
Using past behaviors and data allow organizations to make predictions about future behavior. Predicting customer behaviors based on historical data is easier than employee’s behaviors. Normally customer behavior is predicted by purchases which is why organizations can prepare for peak times, like around the holidays and Black Friday. Predictions about employees future behaviors can be made by looking at their past. Like absenteeism, processing errors or delays, abilities to meet deadlines, lack of communication between co-workers and supervisors, etc. While past behavior is one of the best predictors of future behaviors, there may be some inconsistencies with the prediction. For example, an individual may have a lot of absentees in the past due to health problems. If these problems have been addressed and resolved then they may have fewer absences in the future. HR can address these inconsistencies by having a conversation with the employee of looking to see if there is an obvious reason for their behaviors. Like seeing doctors notes on file for the person calling in sick due to health-related issues. They can also look at the most recent behaviors. Looking at someone’s entire background can give an organization a good idea of how they will act, but it may not be the best reflection of who that individual is now. It also may not be the most accurate description of that person. If my current employer called my boss from the very first job I had (which was about 10 years ago) my old boss probably wouldn’t remember me to give the best description of my work ethic.
2. Natasha
Human Behavior is an expression of the underlying cognitive, emotional, and physiological processes. Most of the behavioral observations are done using recordings such as video with the documented date that is classified by experts. (Imotions Jan 2016) Over the last couple of years, there have been major breakthroughs within machine learning. One of the examples is the analysis of facial expressions. This process allows the emotional responses to be analyzed and tracked in real time. One other form of behavioral measuring is through remote and mobile eye tracking. A prediction has worked but is not for sure or definite and can be considered dangerous. Forecasting and predicting negatively affect quality, innovation, productivity, and customer service. (Fitz)
There are several incosistencies such as time to fill jobs increasing, absenteeism, poor exercising of exit interviews. Those are just to name a few. HR can address those issues by being proactive in helping in the areas of need. Absenteeism can increase, the turn over rate will be better if the company shows the employees they are there for them in more than just giving them a paycheck. Knowing the reason for the problems and inconsistencies will help the organization to do a better job.