Supply Chain Operation
JOHNJACK00
MovingAverageForecasting.xlsxDataSet
| 2020 Avocado Price and Sales Forecasting | |||||||||||||||||
| 2020 Dates | Weekly Avg. Avocado Price 2020 | Weekly Avg. Avocado Price 5-Week Moving Avg Forecast | Weekly Avg. Avocado Price 5-Week Forecast Errors | Weekly Avocados Sold 2020 | Weekly Avocados Sold 5-Week Moving Avg Forecast | Weekly Avocados Sold 5-Week Forecast Errors | |||||||||||
| Region | Week # | Date | Conventional | Organic price | Conventional Forecast | Organic Forecast | Conventional MAPE | Organic MAPE | Conventional | Organic sales | Conventional Forecast | Organic Forecast | Conventional MAPE | Organic MAPE | |||
| Nashville | 1 | 1/2/20 | 0.73 | 1.53 | 14% | 18% | 249,074.81 | 3,749.48 | 15% | 27% | |||||||
| Nashville | 2 | 1/9/20 | 0.84 | 1.53 | 255,094.17 | 3,165.75 | |||||||||||
| Nashville | 3 | 1/16/20 | 0.89 | 1.54 | 251,914.74 | 2,962.13 | |||||||||||
| Nashville | 4 | 1/23/20 | 0.87 | 0.86 | 251,189.52 | 6,627.34 | Create graph of 2020 weekly avocado prices for conventional and organic avocados here | ||||||||||
| Nashville | 5 | 1/30/20 | 0.93 | 1.41 | 238,392.73 | 3,254.87 | |||||||||||
| Nashville | 6 | 2/6/20 | 0.68 | 1.16 | 0.85 | 1.37 | 25% | 18% | 377,719.70 | 4,305.56 | 249133.19 | 3951.91 | 34% | 8% | |||
| Nashville | 7 | 2/13/20 | 0.66 | 0.66 | 0.84 | 1.30 | 28% | 97% | 271,393.50 | 13,802.00 | 274862.17 | 4063.13 | 1% | 71% | |||
| Nashville | 8 | 2/20/20 | 0.82 | 0.67 | 0.81 | 1.13 | 2% | 68% | 225,664.23 | 13,534.67 | 278122.04 | 6190.38 | 23% | 54% | |||
| Nashville | 9 | 2/27/20 | 0.88 | 0.68 | 0.79 | 0.95 | 10% | 40% | 216,226.59 | 10,920.78 | 272871.94 | 8304.89 | 26% | 24% | |||
| Nashville | 10 | 3/5/20 | 0.60 | 0.51 | 0.79 | 0.92 | 32% | 80% | 379,324.44 | 17,135.45 | 265879.35 | 9163.58 | 30% | 47% | |||
| Nashville | 11 | 3/12/20 | 0.75 | 0.61 | 0.73 | 0.74 | 3% | 21% | 261,830.38 | 11,558.79 | 294065.69 | 11939.69 | 12% | 3% | |||
| Nashville | 12 | 3/19/20 | 0.96 | 0.92 | 0.74 | 0.63 | 23% | 32% | 228,023.12 | 5,986.47 | 270887.83 | 13390.34 | 19% | 124% | |||
| Nashville | 13 | 3/26/20 | 0.91 | 0.77 | 0.80 | 0.68 | 12% | 12% | 276,732.88 | 9,755.34 | 262213.75 | 11827.23 | 5% | 21% | |||
| Nashville | 14 | 4/2/20 | 0.95 | 1.17 | 0.82 | 0.70 | 14% | 40% | 281,438.76 | 6,336.78 | 272427.48 | 11071.37 | 3% | 75% | |||
| Nashville | 15 | 4/9/20 | 1.03 | 1.53 | 0.83 | 0.80 | 19% | 48% | 251,089.69 | 5,340.95 | 285469.92 | 10154.57 | 14% | 90% | |||
| Nashville | 16 | 4/16/20 | 1.09 | 1.14 | 0.92 | 1.00 | 16% | 12% | 230,566.12 | 8,448.33 | 259822.97 | 7795.67 | 13% | 8% | |||
| Nashville | 17 | 4/23/20 | 1.10 | 1.43 | 0.99 | 1.11 | 10% | 23% | 226,088.30 | 7,063.97 | 253570.11 | 7173.57 | 12% | 2% | |||
| Nashville | 18 | 4/30/20 | 0.99 | 1.14 | 1.02 | 1.21 | 3% | 6% | 286,322.22 | 11,100.24 | 253183.15 | 7389.07 | 12% | 33% | |||
| Nashville | 19 | 5/7/20 | 0.84 | 1.22 | 1.03 | 1.28 | 23% | 5% | 368,796.80 | 6,216.76 | 255101.02 | 7658.05 | 31% | 23% | |||
| Nashville | 20 | 5/14/20 | 1.02 | 0.87 | 1.01 | 1.29 | 1% | 49% | 225,323.91 | 16,265.74 | 272572.63 | 7634.05 | 21% | 53% | |||
| Nashville | 21 | 5/21/20 | 0.99 | 1.20 | 1.01 | 1.16 | 2% | 3% | 259,151.84 | 9,281.83 | 267419.47 | 9819.01 | 3% | 6% | |||
| Nashville | 22 | 5/28/20 | 0.97 | 1.16 | 0.99 | 1.17 | 2% | 1% | 282,671.14 | 8,676.66 | 273136.61 | 9985.71 | 3% | 15% | |||
| Nashville | 23 | 6/4/20 | 1.07 | 1.14 | 0.96 | 1.12 | 10% | 2% | 269,102.17 | 10,578.11 | 284453.18 | 10308.25 | 6% | 3% | |||
| Nashville | 24 | 6/11/20 | 1.13 | 1.15 | 0.98 | 1.12 | 13% | 3% | 218,540.28 | 13,829.49 | 281009.17 | 10203.82 | 29% | 26% | |||
| Nashville | 25 | 6/18/20 | 1.00 | 1.16 | 1.04 | 1.10 | 4% | 5% | 260,893.43 | 12,361.79 | 250957.87 | 11726.37 | 4% | 5% | Create graph of 2020 weekly avocado prices and sales for conventional avocados here | ||
| Nashville | 26 | 6/25/20 | 0.90 | 1.27 | 1.03 | 1.16 | 15% | 9% | 287,217.67 | 11,077.27 | 258071.77 | 10945.58 | 10% | 1% | |||
| Nashville | 27 | 7/2/20 | 0.96 | 1.20 | 1.01 | 1.18 | 6% | 2% | 281,067.39 | 12,497.92 | 263684.94 | 11304.66 | 6% | 10% | |||
| Nashville | 28 | 7/9/20 | 0.99 | 1.49 | 1.01 | 1.18 | 2% | 21% | 267,296.70 | 6,879.00 | 263364.19 | 12068.92 | 1% | 75% | |||
| Nashville | 29 | 7/16/20 | 1.18 | 1.54 | 1.00 | 1.25 | 16% | 19% | 212,210.95 | 8,490.45 | 263003.09 | 11329.09 | 24% | 33% | |||
| Nashville | 30 | 7/23/20 | 1.21 | 1.43 | 1.01 | 1.33 | 17% | 7% | 211,384.21 | 11,898.47 | 261737.23 | 10261.29 | 24% | 14% | |||
| Nashville | 31 | 7/30/20 | 1.14 | 1.50 | 1.05 | 1.39 | 8% | 8% | 217,774.89 | 8,654.39 | 251835.38 | 10168.62 | 16% | 17% | |||
| Nashville | 32 | 8/6/20 | 1.13 | 1.54 | 1.10 | 1.43 | 3% | 7% | 243,526.27 | 8,077.28 | 237946.83 | 9684.05 | 2% | 20% | |||
| Nashville | 33 | 8/13/20 | 1.05 | 1.61 | 1.13 | 1.50 | 8% | 7% | 268,655.66 | 4,739.29 | 230438.60 | 8799.92 | 14% | 86% | |||
| Nashville | 34 | 8/20/20 | 1.07 | 1.84 | 1.14 | 1.52 | 7% | 17% | 261,757.88 | 7,240.00 | 230710.40 | 8371.98 | 12% | 16% | |||
| Nashville | 35 | 8/27/20 | 1.28 | 1.89 | 1.12 | 1.58 | 13% | 16% | 184,465.49 | 9,333.46 | 240619.78 | 8121.89 | 30% | 13% | |||
| Nashville | 36 | 9/3/20 | 1.34 | 2.04 | 1.13 | 1.68 | 15% | 18% | 188,701.54 | 8,629.45 | 235236.04 | 7608.88 | 25% | 12% | |||
| Nashville | 37 | 9/10/20 | 1.42 | 2.15 | 1.17 | 1.78 | 17% | 17% | 176,082.45 | 9,103.32 | 229421.37 | 7603.90 | 30% | 16% | |||
| Nashville | 38 | 9/17/20 | 1.48 | 2.19 | 1.23 | 1.91 | 17% | 13% | 167,440.24 | 8,579.11 | 215932.60 | 7809.10 | 29% | 9% | |||
| Nashville | 39 | 9/24/20 | 1.66 | 2.24 | 1.32 | 2.02 | 21% | 10% | 159,412.07 | 8,917.50 | 195689.52 | 8577.07 | 23% | 4% | |||
| Nashville | 40 | 10/1/20 | 1.70 | 2.22 | 1.44 | 2.10 | 16% | 5% | 154,956.62 | 8,229.65 | 175220.36 | 8912.57 | 13% | 8% | |||
| Nashville | 41 | 10/8/20 | 1.76 | 2.17 | 1.52 | 2.17 | 14% | 0% | 140,968.03 | 7,071.72 | 169318.58 | 8691.81 | 20% | 23% | |||
| Nashville | 42 | 10/15/20 | 1.57 | 1.96 | 1.60 | 2.19 | 2% | 12% | 161,020.39 | 7,545.78 | 159771.88 | 8380.26 | 1% | 11% | |||
| Nashville | 43 | 10/22/20 | 1.41 | 1.78 | 1.63 | 2.16 | 16% | 21% | 167,135.85 | 8,715.84 | 156759.47 | 8068.75 | 6% | 7% | |||
| Nashville | 44 | 10/29/20 | 1.14 | 1.76 | 1.62 | 2.07 | 42% | 18% | 217,723.59 | 7,350.15 | 156698.59 | 8096.10 | 28% | 10% | |||
| Nashville | 45 | 11/5/20 | 1.02 | 1.71 | 1.52 | 1.98 | 49% | 16% | 229,240.49 | 6,330.44 | 168360.90 | 7782.63 | 27% | 23% | |||
| Nashville | 46 | 11/12/20 | 1.07 | 1.74 | 1.38 | 1.88 | 29% | 8% | 202,631.00 | 5,833.90 | 183217.67 | 7402.79 | 10% | 27% | Create graph of 2020 weekly avocado prices and sales for organic avocados here | ||
| Nashville | 47 | 11/19/20 | 1.02 | 1.61 | 1.24 | 1.79 | 22% | 11% | 188,444.00 | 5,134.74 | 195550.26 | 7155.22 | 4% | 39% | |||
| Nashville | 48 | 11/26/20 | 1.08 | 1.57 | 1.13 | 1.72 | 5% | 10% | 159,826.00 | 5,631.95 | 201034.99 | 6673.01 | 26% | 18% | |||
| Nashville | 49 | 12/3/20 | 1.01 | 1.59 | 1.07 | 1.68 | 6% | 6% | 229,337.00 | 4,984.55 | 199573.02 | 6056.24 | 13% | 22% | |||
| Nashville | 50 | 12/10/20 | 0.90 | 1.59 | 1.04 | 1.64 | 16% | 3% | 239,587.94 | 5,477.32 | 201895.70 | 5583.12 | 16% | 2% | |||
| Nashville | 51 | 12/17/20 | 0.91 | 1.62 | 1.02 | 1.62 | 12% | 0% | 197,844.12 | 6,706.15 | 203965.19 | 5412.49 | 3% | 19% | |||
| Nashville | 52 | 12/24/20 | 1.04 | 1.56 | 0.98 | 1.60 | 5% | 2% | 182,002.85 | 7,151.34 | 203007.81 | 5586.94 | 12% | 22% | |||
| 12/31/20 | 53 | 12/31/20 | 0.99 | 1.59 | 201719.58 | 5990.26 | |||||||||||
| Note: 2017 Avocado Price & Sales Data Retrieved from Kraggle at https://www.kaggle.com/neuromusic/avocado-prices | |||||||||||||||||
5-Week Moving Avg Forecast for Conventional and Organic Avocado Price forecast for 12/31/2017
Weekly Conventional Avocado Sales Vs Price 2020
Conventional 249074.81 255094.17 251914.74 251189.52 238392.73 377719.7 271393.5 225664.23 216226.59 379324.44 261830.38 228023.12 276732.88 281438.76 251089.69 230566.12 226088.3 286322.21999999997 368796.8 225323.91 259151.84 282671.14 269102.17 218540.28 260893.43 287217.67 281067.39 267296.7 212210.95 211384.21 217774.89 243526.27 268655.65999999997 261757.88 184465.49 188701.54 176082.45 167440.24 159412.07 154956.62 140968.03 161020.39000000001 167135.85 217723.59 229240.49 202631 188444 159826 229337 239587.94 197844.12 182002.85 Conventional 0.73 0.84 0.89 0.87 0.93 0.68 0.66 0.82 0.88 0.6 0.75 0.96 0.91 0.95 1.03 1.0900000000000001 1.1000000000000001 0.99 0.84 1.02 0.99 0.97 1.07 1.1299999999999999 1 0.9 0.96 0.99 1.18 1.21 1.1399999999999999 1.1299999999999999 1.05 1.07 1.28 1.34 1.42 1.48 1.66 1.7 1.76 1.57 1.41 1.1399999999999999 1.02 1.07 1.02 1.08 1.01 0.9 0.91 1.04
Weeks of the Year
Weekly Avocado Sales
Price of Avocado
Weekly Avacado Prices 2020
Conventional 0.73 0.84 0.89 0.87 0.93 0.68 0.66 0.82 0.88 0.6 0.75 0.96 0.91 0.95 1.03 1.0900000000000001 1.1000000000000001 0.99 0.84 1.02 0.99 0.97 1.07 1.1299999999999999 1 0.9 0.96 0.99 1.18 1.21 1.1399999999999999 1.1299999999999999 1.05 1.07 1.28 1.34 1.42 1.48 1.66 1.7 1.76 1.57 1.41 1.1399999999999999 1.02 1.07 1.02 1.08 1.01 0.9 0.91 1.04 Organic price 1.53 1.53 1.54 0.86 1.41 1.1599999999999999 0.66 0.67 0.68 0.51 0.61 0.92 0.77 1.17 1.53 1.1399999999999999 1.43 1.1399999999999999 1.22 0.87 1.2 1.1599999999999999 1.1399999999999999 1.1499999999999999 1.1599999999999999 1.27 1.2 1.49 1.54 1.43 1.5 1.54 1.61 1.84 1.89 2.04 2.15 2.19 2.2400000000000002 2.2200000000000002 2.17 1.96 1.78 1.76 1.71 1.74 1.61 1.57 1.59 1.59 1.62 1.56
Weeks of the Year
Weekly Avocado Prices
Weekly Organic Avocado Sales Vs Prices 2020
Week # 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 Organic sales 3749.48 3165.75 2962.13 6627.34 3254.87 4305.5600000000004 13802 13534.67 10920.78 17135.45 11558.79 5986.47 9755.34 6336.78 5340.95 8448.33 7063.97 11100.24 6216.76 16265.74 9281.83 8676.66 10578.11 13829.49 12361.79 11077.27 12497.92 6879 8490.4500000000007 11898.47 8654.39 8077.28 4739.29 7240 9333.4599999999991 8629.4500000000007 9103.32 8579.11 8917.5 8229.65 7071.72 7545.78 8715.84 7350.15 6330.44 5833.9 5134.74 5631.95 4984.55 5477.32 6706.15 7151.34 Organic price 1.53 1.53 1.54 0.86 1.41 1.1599999999999999 0.66 0.67 0.68 0.51 0.61 0.92 0.77 1.17 1.53 1.1399999999999999 1.43 1.1399999999999999 1.22 0.87 1.2 1.1599999999999999 1.1399999999999999 1.1499999999999999 1.1599999999999999 1.27 1.2 1.49 1.54 1.43 1.5 1.54 1.61 1.84 1.89 2.04 2.15 2.19 2.2400000000000002 2.2200000000000002 2.17 1.96 1.78 1.76 1.71 1.74 1.61 1.57 1.59 1.59 1.62 1.56
Weeks of the Year
Organic Sales
Price of Organic
5-Week Moving Avg Forecast for Conventional and Organic Avocado Sales forecast for 12/31/2017
Questions
| 2020 Avocado Price and Sales Forecasting | |
| Questions: | |
| #1 | Which of the four 12/31/2020 forecasts do you have the most confidence in and why (forecast for organic prices, conventional prices, organic sales, or conventional sales)? |
| I have most confidence in conventional price since the degree of error is lower than other projections.Besides, the conventional price has the lowest average percentage error implying that the deviation levels are lower compared to other variables. | |
| #2 | California and Mexico, major producers of avocados will be impacted by the developing 2020-2021 El Nina pattern with drier and warmer than normal conditions resulting in lower avocado yields, reducing the supply of avocados. Based on your analysis of prices and sales, discuss how you believe the El Nina weather pattern will impact prices and sales in the first quarter of 2021. Be specific and include supporting evidence concerning the connection between avocado yields, prices, and sales forecasts. |
| The El Nina weather patterns will have an impct on the on the production and supply of Avocado in the first quarter of 2021.The anticipated decrease in supply of Avocado from the two major producers will lead to the increase in the price of organic and conventional avocados. The harsh weather patterns will lead to the reduction in production and pushes prices since the supply will be low. | |
