2020 Excel Assignment
AlanaB
MovingAverageForecastExercise7.xlsxDataSet
| 2020 Avocado Price and Sales Forecasting | |||||||||||||||||
| 2020 Dates | Weekly Avg. Avocado Price 2020 | Weekly Avg. Avocado Price 5-Week Moving Avg Forecast | Weekly Avg. Avocado Price 5-Week Forecast Errors | Weekly Avocados Sold 2020 | Weekly Avocados Sold 5-Week Moving Avg Forecast | Weekly Avocados Sold 5-Week Forecast Errors | |||||||||||
| Region | Week # | Date | Conventional | Organic | Conventional Forecast | Organic Forecast | Conventional MAPE | Organic MAPE | Conventional | Organic | Conventional Forecast | Organic Forecast | Conventional MAPE | Organic MAPE | |||
| Nashville | 1 | 1/2/20 | 0.73 | 1.53 | 249,074.81 | 3,749.48 | |||||||||||
| Nashville | 2 | 1/9/20 | 0.84 | 1.53 | 255,094.17 | 3,165.75 | |||||||||||
| Nashville | 3 | 1/16/20 | 0.89 | 1.54 | 251,914.74 | 2,962.13 | |||||||||||
| Nashville | 4 | 1/23/20 | 0.87 | 0.86 | 251,189.52 | 6,627.34 | Create graph of 2020 weekly avocado prices for conventional and organic avocados here | ||||||||||
| Nashville | 5 | 1/30/20 | 0.93 | 1.41 | 238,392.73 | 3,254.87 | |||||||||||
| Nashville | 6 | 2/6/20 | 0.68 | 1.16 | 377,719.70 | 4,305.56 | |||||||||||
| Nashville | 7 | 2/13/20 | 0.66 | 0.66 | 271,393.50 | 13,802.00 | |||||||||||
| Nashville | 8 | 2/20/20 | 0.82 | 0.67 | 225,664.23 | 13,534.67 | |||||||||||
| Nashville | 9 | 2/27/20 | 0.88 | 0.68 | 216,226.59 | 10,920.78 | |||||||||||
| Nashville | 10 | 3/5/20 | 0.60 | 0.51 | 379,324.44 | 17,135.45 | |||||||||||
| Nashville | 11 | 3/12/20 | 0.75 | 0.61 | 261,830.38 | 11,558.79 | |||||||||||
| Nashville | 12 | 3/19/20 | 0.96 | 0.92 | 228,023.12 | 5,986.47 | |||||||||||
| Nashville | 13 | 3/26/20 | 0.91 | 0.77 | 276,732.88 | 9,755.34 | |||||||||||
| Nashville | 14 | 4/2/20 | 0.95 | 1.17 | 281,438.76 | 6,336.78 | |||||||||||
| Nashville | 15 | 4/9/20 | 1.03 | 1.53 | 251,089.69 | 5,340.95 | |||||||||||
| Nashville | 16 | 4/16/20 | 1.09 | 1.14 | 230,566.12 | 8,448.33 | |||||||||||
| Nashville | 17 | 4/23/20 | 1.10 | 1.43 | 226,088.30 | 7,063.97 | |||||||||||
| Nashville | 18 | 4/30/20 | 0.99 | 1.14 | 286,322.22 | 11,100.24 | |||||||||||
| Nashville | 19 | 5/7/20 | 0.84 | 1.22 | 368,796.80 | 6,216.76 | |||||||||||
| Nashville | 20 | 5/14/20 | 1.02 | 0.87 | 225,323.91 | 16,265.74 | |||||||||||
| Nashville | 21 | 5/21/20 | 0.99 | 1.20 | 259,151.84 | 9,281.83 | |||||||||||
| Nashville | 22 | 5/28/20 | 0.97 | 1.16 | 282,671.14 | 8,676.66 | |||||||||||
| Nashville | 23 | 6/4/20 | 1.07 | 1.14 | 269,102.17 | 10,578.11 | |||||||||||
| Nashville | 24 | 6/11/20 | 1.13 | 1.15 | 218,540.28 | 13,829.49 | |||||||||||
| Nashville | 25 | 6/18/20 | 1.00 | 1.16 | 260,893.43 | 12,361.79 | Create graph of 2020 weekly avocado prices and sales for conventional avocados here | ||||||||||
| Nashville | 26 | 6/25/20 | 0.90 | 1.27 | 287,217.67 | 11,077.27 | |||||||||||
| Nashville | 27 | 7/2/20 | 0.96 | 1.20 | 281,067.39 | 12,497.92 | |||||||||||
| Nashville | 28 | 7/9/20 | 0.99 | 1.49 | 267,296.70 | 6,879.00 | |||||||||||
| Nashville | 29 | 7/16/20 | 1.18 | 1.54 | 212,210.95 | 8,490.45 | |||||||||||
| Nashville | 30 | 7/23/20 | 1.21 | 1.43 | 211,384.21 | 11,898.47 | |||||||||||
| Nashville | 31 | 7/30/20 | 1.14 | 1.50 | 217,774.89 | 8,654.39 | |||||||||||
| Nashville | 32 | 8/6/20 | 1.13 | 1.54 | 243,526.27 | 8,077.28 | |||||||||||
| Nashville | 33 | 8/13/20 | 1.05 | 1.61 | 268,655.66 | 4,739.29 | |||||||||||
| Nashville | 34 | 8/20/20 | 1.07 | 1.84 | 261,757.88 | 7,240.00 | |||||||||||
| Nashville | 35 | 8/27/20 | 1.28 | 1.89 | 184,465.49 | 9,333.46 | |||||||||||
| Nashville | 36 | 9/3/20 | 1.34 | 2.04 | 188,701.54 | 8,629.45 | |||||||||||
| Nashville | 37 | 9/10/20 | 1.42 | 2.15 | 176,082.45 | 9,103.32 | |||||||||||
| Nashville | 38 | 9/17/20 | 1.48 | 2.19 | 167,440.24 | 8,579.11 | |||||||||||
| Nashville | 39 | 9/24/20 | 1.66 | 2.24 | 159,412.07 | 8,917.50 | |||||||||||
| Nashville | 40 | 10/1/20 | 1.70 | 2.22 | 154,956.62 | 8,229.65 | |||||||||||
| Nashville | 41 | 10/8/20 | 1.76 | 2.17 | 140,968.03 | 7,071.72 | |||||||||||
| Nashville | 42 | 10/15/20 | 1.57 | 1.96 | 161,020.39 | 7,545.78 | |||||||||||
| Nashville | 43 | 10/22/20 | 1.41 | 1.78 | 167,135.85 | 8,715.84 | |||||||||||
| Nashville | 44 | 10/29/20 | 1.14 | 1.76 | 217,723.59 | 7,350.15 | |||||||||||
| Nashville | 45 | 11/5/20 | 1.02 | 1.71 | 229,240.49 | 6,330.44 | |||||||||||
| Nashville | 46 | 11/12/20 | 1.07 | 1.74 | 202,631.00 | 5,833.90 | Create graph of 2020 weekly avocado prices and sales for organic avocados here | ||||||||||
| Nashville | 47 | 11/19/20 | 1.02 | 1.61 | 188,444.00 | 5,134.74 | |||||||||||
| Nashville | 48 | 11/26/20 | 1.08 | 1.57 | 159,826.00 | 5,631.95 | |||||||||||
| Nashville | 49 | 12/3/20 | 1.01 | 1.59 | 229,337.00 | 4,984.55 | |||||||||||
| Nashville | 50 | 12/10/20 | 0.90 | 1.59 | 239,587.94 | 5,477.32 | |||||||||||
| Nashville | 51 | 12/17/20 | 0.91 | 1.62 | 197,844.12 | 6,706.15 | |||||||||||
| Nashville | 52 | 12/24/20 | 1.04 | 1.56 | 182,002.85 | 7,151.34 | |||||||||||
| Nashville | 53 | 12/31/20 | |||||||||||||||
| Note: 2017 Avocado Price & Sales Data Retrieved from Kraggle at https://www.kaggle.com/neuromusic/avocado-prices | |||||||||||||||||
5-Week Moving Avg Forecast for Conventional and Organic Avocado Price forecast for 12/31/2017
5-Week Moving Avg Forecast for Conventional and Organic Avocado Sales forecast for 12/31/2017
Questions
| 2020 Avocado Price and Sales Forecasting | |
| Questions: | |
| #1 | Which of the four 12/31/2020 forecasts do you have the most confidence in and why (forecast for organic prices, conventional prices, organic sales, or conventional sales)? |
| #2 | California and Mexico, major producers of avocados will be impacted by the developing 2020-2021 El Nina pattern with drier and warmer than normal conditions resulting in lower avocado yields, reducing the supply of avocados. Based on your analysis of prices and sales, discuss how you believe the El Nina weather pattern will impact prices and sales in the first quarter of 2021. Be specific and include supporting evidence concerning the connection between avocado yields, prices, and sales forecasts. |
