Moving Average Forecasting – Avocados!

DataSet

2022 Avocado Price and Sales Forecasting
		2022 Dates	Weekly Avg. Avocado Price 2022		Weekly Avg. Avocado Price 5-Week Moving Avg Forecast		Weekly Avg. Avocado Price 5-Week Forecast Errors		Weekly Avocados Sold 2022		Weekly Avocados Sold 5-Week Moving Avg Forecast		Weekly Avocados Sold 5-Week Forecast Errors
Region	Week #	Date	Conventional	Organic	Conventional Forecast	Organic Forecast	Conventional MAPE	Organic MAPE	Conventional	Organic	Conventional Forecast	Organic Forecast	Conventional MAPE	Organic MAPE
Nashville	1	12/26/21	0.98	1.42			101%	107%	185,316	5,741			102.33%	120%
Nashville	2	1/2/22	0.90	1.53					212,752	4,746
Nashville	3	1/9/22	0.95	1.51					181,360	5,750
Nashville	4	1/16/22	0.87	1.37					167,159	6,554							Create graph of 2022 weekly avocado prices for conventional and organic avocados here
Nashville	5	1/23/22	0.95	1.39					173,689	5,767
Nashville	6	1/30/22	0.77	1.40	0.93	1.44	121%	103%	268,608	5,805	184055.20	5711.60	68.52%	98%
Nashville	7	2/6/22	0.88	1.42	0.89	1.44	101%	101%	203,205	5,590	200713.60	5724.40	98.77%	102%
Nashville	8	2/13/22	0.94	1.49	0.88	1.42	94%	95%	182,025	4,856	198804.20	5893.20	109.22%	121%
Nashville	9	2/20/22	0.88	1.53	0.88	1.41	100%	92%	190,263	5,288	198937.20	5714.40	104.56%	108%
Nashville	10	2/27/22	0.97	1.32	0.88	1.45	91%	110%	159,755	11,949	203558.00	5461.20	127.42%	46%
Nashville	11	3/6/22	0.87	1.32	0.89	1.43	102%	108%	188,478	12,819	200771.20	6697.60	106.52%	52%
Nashville	12	3/13/22	0.93	1.53	0.91	1.42	98%	93%	179,305	6,926	184745.20	8100.40	103.03%	117%
Nashville	13	3/20/22	0.93	1.46	0.92	1.44	99%	98%	171,568	7,913	179965.20	8367.60	104.89%	106%
Nashville	14	3/27/22	0.95	1.59	0.92	1.43	96%	90%	165,587	6,681	177873.80	8979.00	107.42%	134%
Nashville	15	4/3/22	0.82	0.85	0.93	1.44	113%	170%	206,829	30,449	172938.60	9257.60	83.61%	30%
Nashville	16	4/10/22	0.90	0.86	0.90	1.35	100%	157%	178,369	28,242	182353.40	12957.60	102.23%	46%
Nashville	17	4/17/22	0.81	1.18	0.91	1.26	112%	107%	233,759	11,773	180331.60	16042.20	77.14%	136%
Nashville	18	4/24/22	0.81	1.45	0.88	1.19	109%	82%	237,679	8,547	191222.40	17011.60	80.45%	199%
Nashville	19	5/1/22	0.88	0.94	0.86	1.19	98%	126%	212,720	16,049	204444.60	17138.40	96.11%	107%
Nashville	20	5/8/22	0.81	1.26	0.84	1.06	104%	84%	219,615	14,199	213871.20	19012.00	97.38%	134%
Nashville	21	5/15/22	0.92	1.16	0.84	1.14	92%	98%	204,128	11,734	216428.40	15762.00	106.03%	134%
Nashville	22	5/22/22	0.87	1.16	0.85	1.20	97%	103%	238,624	11,609	221580.20	12460.40	92.86%	107%
Nashville	23	5/29/22	0.88	1.08	0.86	1.19	98%	111%	223,368	13,135	222553.20	12427.60	99.64%	95%
Nashville	24	6/5/22	0.97	1.31	0.87	1.12	90%	85%	190,921	11,428	219691.00	13345.20	115.07%	117%
Nashville	25	6/12/22	0.89	0.86	0.89	1.19	100%	139%	232,084	14,368	215331.20	12421.00	92.78%	86%			Create graph of 2022 weekly avocado prices and sales for conventional avocados here
Nashville	26	6/19/22	0.98	1.18	0.91	1.11	92%	94%	195,471	9,785	217825.00	12454.80	111.44%	127%
Nashville	27	6/26/22	0.87	0.89	0.92	1.12	106%	126%	250,902	15,605	216093.60	12065.00	86.13%	77%
Nashville	28	7/3/22	1.00	1.35	0.92	1.06	92%	79%	198,240	10,013	218549.20	12864.20	110.24%	128%
Nashville	29	7/10/22	1.07	1.20	0.94	1.12	88%	93%	196,773	11,534	213523.60	12239.80	108.51%	106%
Nashville	30	7/17/22	1.07	1.77	0.96	1.10	90%	62%	191,727	7,162	214694.00	12261.00	111.98%	171%
Nashville	31	7/24/22	1.10	1.11	1.00	1.28	91%	115%	186,520	12,337	206622.60	10819.80	110.78%	88%
Nashville	32	7/31/22	1.12	1.19	1.02	1.26	91%	106%	188,016	13,685	204832.40	11330.20	108.94%	83%
Nashville	33	8/7/22	1.06	1.48	1.07	1.32	101%	89%	202,833	9,978	192255.20	10946.20	94.78%	110%
Nashville	34	8/14/22	1.09	1.48	1.08	1.35	99%	91%	184,733	9,322	193173.80	10939.20	104.57%	117%
Nashville	35	8/21/22	1.09	1.30	1.09	1.41	100%	108%	172,757	9,481	190765.80	10496.80	110.42%	111%
Nashville	36	8/28/22	0.73	0.93	1.09	1.31	150%	141%	292,902	16,110	186971.80	10960.60	63.83%	68%
Nashville	37	9/4/22	0.75	0.93	1.02	1.28	136%	137%	250,165	14,786	208248.20	11715.20	83.24%	79%
Nashville	38	9/11/22	1.01	1.50	0.94	1.22	93%	82%	191,359	6,309	220678.00	11935.40	115.32%	189%
Nashville	39	9/18/22	1.16	1.72	0.93	1.23	81%	71%	174,768	4,411	218383.20	11201.60	124.96%	254%
Nashville	40	9/25/22	1.15	1.74	0.95	1.28	82%	73%	172,755	4,636	216390.20	10219.40	125.26%	220%
Nashville	41	10/2/22	1.20	0.68	0.96	1.36	80%	201%	156,477	16,638	216389.80	9250.40	138.29%	56%
Nashville	42	10/9/22	1.06	1.05	1.05	1.31	99%	125%	177,609	8,007	189104.80	9356.00	106.47%	117%
Nashville	43	10/16/22	1.19	0.82	1.12	1.34	94%	163%	163,017	13,219	174593.60	8000.20	107.10%	61%
Nashville	44	10/23/22	1.18	1.68	1.15	1.20	98%	72%	151,715	6,293	168925.20	9382.20	111.34%	149%
Nashville	45	10/30/22	1.31	0.88	1.16	1.19	88%	136%	146,936	14,545	164314.60	9758.60	111.83%	67%
Nashville	46	11/6/22	1.39	0.98	1.19	1.02	85%	104%	141,387	11,863	159150.80	11740.40	112.56%	99%			Create graph of 2022 weekly avocado prices and sales for organic avocados here
Nashville	47	11/13/22	1.33	0.80	1.23	1.08	92%	135%	131,605	14,848	156132.80	10785.40	118.64%	73%
Nashville	48	11/20/22	1.24	1.44	1.28	1.03	103%	72%	129,937	5,824	146932.00	12153.60	113.08%	209%
Nashville	49	11/27/22	0.96	0.83	1.29	1.16	134%	139%	189,526	8,502	140316.00	10674.60	74.04%	126%
Nashville	50	12/4/22	0.90	1.02	1.25	0.99	138%	97%	193,711	5,039	147878.20	11116.40	76.34%	221%
Nashville	51	12/11/22	0.92	1.05	1.16	1.01	127%	97%	158,024	4,534	157233.20	9215.20	99.50%	203%
Nashville	52	12/18/22	0.93	1.50	1.07	1.03	115%	69%	166,486	3,223	160560.60	7749.40	96.44%	240%
Nashville	53	12/25/22			0.99	1.17					167536.80	5424.40
Note: Avocado Price & Sales Data Retrieved from Kraggle at https://www.kaggle.com/neuromusic/avocado-prices

5-Week Moving Avg Forecast for Conventional and Organic Avocado Price forecast for 12/25/2022

5-Week Moving Avg Forecast for Conventional and Organic Avocado Sales forecast for 12/25/2022

Questions

2022 Avocado Price and Sales Forecasting
Questions:
#1	Which of the four 12/25/2022 forecasts do you have the most confidence in and why (forecast for organic prices, conventional prices, organic sales, or conventional sales)?
	the price of organic avocados appears to have a positive slope and a much higher slope compared to conventional prices.
#2	California and Mexico, major producers of avocados will be impacted by the developing 2022-2023 El Nina pattern with drier and warmer than normal conditions resulting in lower avocado yields, reducing the supply of avocados. Based on your analysis of prices and sales, discuss how you believe the El Nina weather pattern will impact prices and sales in the first quarter of 2023. Be specific and include supporting evidence concerning the connection between avocado yields, prices, and sales forecasts.
	The impact El Nina will have on avocado prices will increase and sales will decrease. causing lower avocado yields. There will be overall less avocados to sell in the first place. so the avocado will be priced higher do to the shortage.will be less avocados available, so each avocado will now become more valuable and sell at a higher price.

image1.jpeg