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More Fracking, Fewer Earthquakes

klahoma has a long history of seismicity, but, since 2013, the Sooner

State has seen a significant increase in the number of earthquakes

within its borders. This spate of earthquakes has led to public

confusion as to whether hydraulic fracturing, commonly called “fracking,” is

the direct cause of these earthquakes, with some state lawmakers even calling

for an outright moratorium on fracking back in 2015, despite roughly 20 percent

of the jobs in the state being supported by oil and natural gas development.

A new analysis of Oklahoma Geological Survey (OGS) data undertaken by Energy

in Depth shows the amount of monthly earthquakes in the Sooner State has

decreased 86 percent from its peak in June 2015. Concurrently, there has been

an 11 percent increase in oil production and 81 percent increase in the number of

operation oil rigs in the state over the past calendar year. These numbers help

reinforce what the scientific literature has long shown: Fracking is not the cause

of the increases in induced seismicity.

Researchers at the University of Alberta released a study in June concluding

fracking has had a limited impact on earthquakes in the United States and

by TIMOTHY BENSON November 28, 2017, 12:00 AM

Canada. Further, a database tracking earthquake sequences proposed to have

been induced or triggered by human activity since the 1800s, administered by

researchers at two universities in the United Kingdom, shows only 29

earthquakes have conclusively been linked to fracking. The U.S. Geological

Survey (USGS) itself, on its “Myths and Misconceptions” page for induced

seismicity, says, under “Fact 1”: “Fracking is NOT causing most of the induced

earthquakes.”

Instead of blaming fracking, research suggests the additional earthquakes are

likely linked to an increase in the number of wastewater injection wells, which

are separate from the fracking process, with most of the wastewater being

injected into those wells also being unrelated to fracking activity. “More than 95

percent of wastewater injected in disposal wells located in Oklahoma’s most

seismically active areas is produced water, which is co-produced with oil and

gas whether a well has been hydraulically fractured or not,” writes Seth

Whitehead, author of the Energy in Depth piece. “This produced water is also

known as brine or formation water and is typically ancient ocean water. It is not

used fracking fluid, sometimes called flowback.” (Most wastewater injection

wells are not exclusive to hydraulic fracturing and are used by conventional

drilling sites.)

Whitehead also notes the number of earthquakes in Oklahoma that reached

magnitude-3.0 (M3) or higher declined by 76 percent between September 2016

and September 2017. M3 is roughly the magnitude needed for an earthquake to

be felt on Earth’s surface. USGS equates the vibrations from an M3 earthquake

to be “similar to [vibrations produced by] the passing of a truck.” It is also

important to remember that the moment magnitude scale, which measures

earthquake intensity, is logarithmic, with each whole number on the scale being

10 times as large as the preceding number. Therefore, for example, an M6 quake

is 100 times as powerful as an M4 and 1,000 times as powerful as an M3 quake.

In a major study, the Environmental Protection Agency concluded most

injection wells do not cause earthquakes and “very few” earthquakes produced

by those that do can be felt by humans.

Specific to Oklahoma, another study, published in Science in 2014, found only

four of the roughly 4,500 injection wells in the state had most likely induced

seismic activity. A 2015 Energy in Depth report notes only 89 of the more than

10,700 injection wells in Oklahoma had “potentially” been linked to seismic

activity.

“Oklahoma regulators have implemented measures that have either shut in or

reduced volumes of injection in roughly 700 disposal wells, reducing

wastewater injection volumes 40 percent from 2014 levels,” Whitehead wrote.

“Though these more than a dozen directives — which included increased

monitoring, well plugging, and volume reductions for hundreds of injection

sites near seismic events — have resulted in a ‘significant economic impact,’

they have been largely supported by industry and have proven effective.”

Oklahoma has shown that sensible precautions can reduce the risk of increased

induced seismicity. Flatly, concerns about induced seismicity are overblown and

do not provide justification for banning fracking or over-regulating it out of

existence.

Timothy Benson ([email protected]) is a policy analyst with The

Heartland Institute, a free-market think tank headquartered in Arlington

Heights, Ill.

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