PERT

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Monte_Carlo_Breakfast_Schedule_Example1.xlsx
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Breakfast schedule

Number Activity Predecessor Best-Case Likely Worst-Case Duration Var
1 Retrieve ingredients from refrigerator Start 0.25 0.5 1.5 0.63 0.04
2 Place egg and bacon pan on stove 1 0.15 0.5 1 0.53 0.02
3 Place hash brown pan on stove 2 0.1 0.5 0.75 0.48 0.01
4 Place toast in toaster 7 0.5 1 1.5 1 0.03
5 Cook eggs 7 3 5 8 5.17 0.69
6 Cook bacon 7 2 5 9 5.17 1.36
7 Cook hash browns 3 4 10 15 9.83 3.36
8 Brew coffee 1 8 10 17 10.83 2.25
9 Make toast 4 3 4 7 4.33 0.44
10 Pour orange juice 7,12 0.5 1 1.5 1 0.03
11 Pour coffee 7 0.15 1 1.5 0.94 0.05
12 Plate breakfast food 7 1 2 3 2 0.11
13 Serve coffee 12, 8 0.25 1 1.5 0.96 0.04
14 Serve breakfast 13 0.5 1 2.5 1.17 0.11

Montesim

Task Duration Number Activity Predecessor Best-Case Likely Worst-Case Duration Variance Alpha Beta Random Path Length
Start 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Start-1-2-3-7-4-9-12-13-14 22.95
0.4222170332 1 Retrieve ingredients from refrigerator Start 0.25 0.5 1.5 0.63 0.04 1.97 4.59 1.2119453806 Start-1-2-3-7-5-12-13-14 23.35
0.6769830058 2 Place egg and bacon pan on stove 1 0.15 0.5 1 0.53 0.02 3.47 4.40 0.6135447265 Start-1-8-13-14 14.40
0.4672271485 3 Place hash brown pan on stove 2 0.1 0.5 0.75 0.48 0.01 4.49 3.29 0.5519012756 Start-1-2-3-7-6-12,13,14 25.12
0.8910663783 4 Place toast in toaster 7 0.5 1 1.5 1.00 0.03 4.00 4.00 0.8696373594 Start-1-2-3-7-10-13-14 18.26
5.390282028 5 Cook eggs 7 3 5 8 5.17 0.69 3.40 4.44 4.686649307 Start-1-2-3-7-11-13-14 17.66
2.9362839974 6 Cook bacon 7 2 5 9 5.17 1.36 3.58 4.34 6.4528840491
9.7850473815 7 Cook hash browns 3 4 10 15 9.83 3.36 4.22 3.74 11.6100285506 Critical Path # 4
9.2181075497 8 Brew coffee 1 8 10 17 10.83 2.25 2.13 4.64 10.1933484745 Critical Path Start-1-2-3-7-6-12,13,14
3.7630771131 9 Make toast 4 3 4 7 4.33 0.44 2.33 4.67 3.419402797
1.2588603473 10 Pour orange juice 7,12 0.5 1 1.5 1.00 0.03 4.00 4.00 1.2829060646
0.8425246179 11 Pour coffee 7 0.15 1 1.5 0.94 0.05 4.53 3.20 0.6837473403 Trial Makespan Critical Path
1.9353738253 12 Plate breakfast food 7 1 2 3 2.00 0.11 4.00 4.00 1.6876766625 25.12 4
1.0646117484 13 Serve coffee 12, 8 0.25 1 1.5 0.96 0.04 4.44 3.40 0.9679059145 1 23.6450324413 4
0.7602949423 14 Serve breakfast 13 0.5 1 2.5 1.17 0.11 2.33 4.67 2.0226688964 2 18.9926192933 4
3 21.9178318135 2
4 19.5953349833 1
5 19.6338121236 2
Task Duration ES EF LS LF TS Critical Best Likely Worst 6 18.9220060358 4
Start 0 7 21.119853479 1
1 Retrieve ingredients from refrigerator 1.21 0 1.21 0.00 1.21 0.00 0.25 0.5 1.5 8 24.4865935314 4
2 Place egg and bacon pan on stove 0.61 1.21 1.83 1.21 1.83 0.00 TRUE 0.15 0.5 1 9 18.6410714108 2
3 Place hash brown pan on stove 0.55 1.83 2.38 1.83 2.38 0.00 TRUE 0.1 0.5 0.75 10 21.7883098832 2
4 Place toast in toaster 0.87 13.99 14.86 13.99 14.86 0.00 TRUE 0.5 1 1.5
5 Cook eggs 4.69 13.99 18.67 15.75 20.44 1.77 FALSE 3 5 8
6 Cook bacon 6.45 13.99 20.44 13.99 20.44 0.00 TRUE 2 5 9
7 Cook hash browns 11.61 2.38 13.99 2.38 13.99 0.00 TRUE 4 10 15
8 Brew coffee 10.19 1.21 11.41 11.93 22.13 10.72 FALSE 8 10 17
9 Make toast 3.42 14.86 18.28 17.02 20.44 2.16 FALSE 3 4 7
10 Pour orange juice 1.28 13.99 15.27 20.85 22.13 6.86 FALSE 0.5 1 1.5
11 Pour coffee 0.68 13.99 14.67 21.44 22.13 7.46 FALSE 0.15 1 1.5
12 Plate breakfast food 1.69 20.44 22.13 20.44 22.13 0.00 TRUE 1 2 3
13 Serve coffee 0.97 22.13 23.10 22.13 23.10 0.00 TRUE 0.25 1 1.5
14 Serve breakfast 2.02 23.10 25.12 23.10 25.12 0.00 TRUE 0.5 1 2.5

Duration chart

Trial CP Critical Path
0 23.0871724426 1
1 20.3963836741 4
2 21.3373924926 4
3 17.3076145502 1
4 23.7122478765 4
5 19.4734548334 1
6 20.2547083104 2
7 25.6512534416 1
8 24.6239616244 1
9 21.778658588 1
10 22.171363934 4

Schedule Duration

CP 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 23.087172442587853 20.396383674087218 21.337392492578662 17.307614550234053 23.7122478765293 19.473454833375484 20.25470831038686 25.651253441649249 24.623961624415568 21.778658588040265 22.171363934040073