hos 3
karinab123
module5.pdf
China’s Econom ic M
iracle & Challenges
special kind of Com
m unism
Hundreds of m illions
lifted from poverty
Chinese m odel
Private sector & m
assive state interventions &
governm
ent contracts
B efore 1949
• c iv
il w
a r b
e tw
e e
n N
a tio
n a
list P a
rty le
d b
y C
h ia
n g
K a
i S h
e k
C o
m m
u n
ist P a
rty le
a d
b y
M a
o Z
e d
o n
g
• M
a o
Z e
d o
n g
b e
lie v e
d th
a t
C h
in a
sh o
u ld
b e
c o
m m
u n
ist n
a tio
n→ su
p p
o rte
d
b y
p e
a sa
n ts &
p o
o r u
rb a
n p
e o
p le
, w
h ic
h m
a d
e m
o st o
f th e
p o
p u
la tio
n
O ctober 1
st, 1949
A fte
r se v e
ra l y
e a
rs o f fig
h tin
g in
th e
C iv
il W a
r, th e
C o
m m
u n
ist P a
rty to
o k
c o
n tro
l o f M
a in
la n
d C
h in
a o
n
O c to
b e
r 1 , 1
9 4
9 , w
h e
re th
e y
e sta
b lish
e d
th e
P e
o p
le ’s
R e
p u
b lic
o f
C h
in a
(P R
C )
fo rc
e d
th e
n a
tio n
a list p
a rty
& p
e o
p le
in fa
v o
r to re
tre a
t to th
e isla
n d
o f
T a
iw a
n .
The First Five Year Plan (1952/53-1957/58)
• centralized econom
ic planning •
focus w as on heavy industries –
steel, coal, chem icals
• Land Reform
, Collectivization and Nationalization •
U nder the Five-Year Plan, privately-ow
ned enterprises w
ere gradually brought under governm ent control or
converted into joint public-private com panies.
• U
nder the Five-Year Plan, farm ers w
ere encouraged to organize large, socialized collectives to im
prove efficiency.
The First Five Year Plan (1952/53-1957/58)
• investm
ent to G D
P in term s of 1952 constant prices
w as about 20%
, com pared w
ith only 6% in the pre-w
ar period.
• O
f the investm ent in capital construction, 48%
of Investm
ent w as in industry, of w
hich 85% w
as for heavy industry
• A
ccording to “official” statistics, G D
P grew annually
8.9% &
industrial production at 18 %
• T
he grow th of agriculture lagged far behind that
industry, 4.5% annual
A gricultural
C ollectivization
• For this plan to w
ork, the peasants had to grow lots of grain and
sell it at extrem ely low
prices, this kept inflation in check.
• Life for urban Chinese w
as tightly regulated by w ork units→
W ork U
nits provided the basic structure for laborand controlled m
any aspects of everyday life, including accom m
odation, education and social services
• national dem
ands often resulted in local needs being neglected •
rate of agricultural food production w asn’t high enough to allow
the industrial w
orkforce to expand further and keep the w orkers
fed.
The G reat Leap Forw
ard (Second Five Years plan (1958 -1963)
a new approach to econom
ic developm
ent w as designed by M
ao in 1957, know
n as the G reat Leap
Forw ard
The G reat Leap Forw
ard
• The plan w
as designed to get laborers in the countryside w orking at full capacity, this w
ould allow
an agricultural SU RPLU
S.→ to feed industry w
orkers and expand production in the cities •
find a m ethod to organize rural w
orkers to directly contribute to industrial production→
collectives m erged into even larger People's Com
m unes &
by the end of 1958, approxim ately
25,000 state-operated com m
unes w ere created, w
ith an average of 5,000 households each. •
M any com
m unes w
ere assigned to the production of a single com m
odity: steel. 'Backyard furnaces' w
ere constructed at every com m
une and urban neighborhood to help increase steel production. →
to increase Chinese Steel production from 5 m
illion tons in 1957 to 100 m illion
tons annually by 1962. •
People used every type of fuel they could to pow er these furnaces, from
coal to the w ood of
coffins. W here iron ore w
as unavailable, they m elted household objects, including pots and pans,
and even bicycles. The result w as not steel, but pig iron, w
hich w as largely unusable.
The G reat Leap Forw
ard
• The econom
y’s lim it of tolerance w
as soon reached, and the new drive lost its
m om
entum . A
gricultural output, affected by both adverse w eather and
overcrow ding, dropped in 1960, as w
ell as industrial output → total collapse.
The A djustm
ents (1959) -Before the G
reat Fam ine
• stra
te g
y o
f d e
v e
lo p
m e
n t w
a s d
ra stic
a lly
re v
ise d
→ n
e w
p o
lic y
o f “
re a
d ju
stm e
n t”
(o f
th e
p a
c e
o f d
e v e
lo p
m e
n t) “c
o n
so lid
a tio
n " (o
f e x istin
g p
la n
ts), re in
fo rc
e m
e n
t (o f th
e
w e
a k
lin k s) a
n d
im p
ro v e
m e
n t (o
f q u
a lity
o f p
ro d
u c ts) w
a s im
p le
m e
n te
d in
1 9
6 1
.
• C
o m
m u
n e
sy ste
m u
n d
e rw
e n
t a c
o m
p le
te re
v isio
n . P
riv a
te p
lo ts o
f la n
d w
e re
re d
istrib u
te d
to in
d iv
id u
a l p
e a
sa n
ts, & fa
rm m
a rk
e ts w
e re
re o
p e
n e
d to
p ro
v id
e a
c h
a n
n e
l fo r p
riv a
te e
x c h
a n
g e
.
The G reat Fam
ine (1959-1962)
• labor being diverted to steel production in com
bination w ith poor w
eather conditions resulted in a shortage of food that caused m
illions of deaths, estim
ates range from 18 m
illion to 45 m illion
• China
continued to
export grain
w orldw
ide, and
refused any
foreign aid
• M
ao resigned
ashead ofstate
in 1959,w
ithdrew from
econom ic
decision-m aking
but rem
ained a
pow erful
figure in
the com
m unist
party, launching
The C
ulturalR evolution
in 1966.
Sino-Soviet Split In 1956
• S
in o
-S o
v ie
t S p
lit In 1
9 5
6 o
v e
r
d isa
g re
e m
e n
ts b e
tw e
e n
M a
o a
n d
K h
ru sh
c h
e v
o v e
r th e
a p
p lic
a tio
n o
f
M a
rx ism
-L e
n in
ism .
• B
y 1
9 5
8 K
h ru
sh c h
e v
la b
e le
d M
a o
a s a
“ w
a rm
o n
g e
r” a
n d
c a
n c e
lle d
a ll fo
re ig
n -
a id
a n
d S
o v
ie t n
u c le
a r b
o m
b d
e liv
e rie
s
w ith
in th
e P
R C
.
The cultural Revolution (1966-1976) Red B
ook
• A
im e
d to
p u
rg e
th e
M id
d le
c la
ss a n
d n
o n
-re v o
lu tio
n a
rie s a
n d
to rid
c o
m m
u n
ist C h
in a
fo r a
ll th e
d e
v ils o
f c a
p ita
lism a
n d
im p
e ria
list tra
d itio
n s
• S
c h
o o
ls a n
d U
n iv
e rsitie
s th ro
u g
h o
u t C
h in
a w
e re
c a
n c e
lle d
& stu
d e
n ts
m o
b ilize
d in
to p
a ra
m ilita
ry u
n its, c
a lle
d R
E D
G U
A R
D S
.
• T
h e
R e
d G
u a
rd s tra
v e
le d
a ll o
v e
r th e
c o
u n
try a
n d
a tta
c k e
d a
n d
k ille
d
te a
c h
e rs, in
te lle
c tu
a ls a
n d
e v e
n o
rd in
a ry
p e
o p
le th
e y
su sp
e c te
d o
f u
n d
e rm
in in
g th
e c
o m
m u
n ist sy
ste m
& fo
c u
se d
o n
d e
stro y
in g
th e
'F o
u r
O ld
's' o f C
h in
e se
so c ie
ty : o
ld c
u s to
m s , o
ld c
u ltu
re , o
ld h
a b
its , a
n d
o ld
id
e a
s →
country’s cultural heritage w as destroyed
Restoration of Stability 1970-74
• F o
llo w
in g
th e
c u
ltu ra
l re v o
lu tio
n , C
h in
a w
a s
fo c u
se d
o n
sta b
ility a
n d
c o
o rd
in a
tio n
u n
d e
r
P re
m ie
r Z h
o u
E n
la i.
• re
o p
e n
in g
o f u
n iv
e rsitie
s & re
tu rn
o f sk
ille d
a n
d
h ig
h ly
e d
u c a
te d
w o
rk e
rs to th
e jo
b s th
e y
h a
d
p re
v io
u sly
b e
e n
d isp
la c e
d fro
m .
• la
rg e
in c re
a se
in in
v e
stm e
n ts, e
sp e
c ia
lly w
ith in
c o
n tra
c ts w
ith fo
re ig
n firm
s
1976 end of Cultural Revolution
• M
a o
Z e
d o
n g
d ie
s in S
e p
te m
b e
r1 9
7 6
& D
e n
g
X ia
o p
in g
ta k e
s o v e
r → c
h a
n g
e d
p o
litic a
l, e c o
n o
m ic
a n
d so
c ia
l life &
o p
e n
e d
C h
in a
to th
e W
o rld
.
• P
o lic
ie s to
sh ift th
e n
a tio
n fro
m a
c e
n tra
lly -p
la n
n e
d
e c o
n o
m y
to a
m o
re so
c ia
list m a
rk e
t b a
se d
• g
o a
ls o f D
e n
g X
ia o
p in
g : fo
u r m
o d
e rn
iza tio
n s:
A g
ric u
ltu ra
l, In d
u s try
, S c ie
n c e
& T
e c h
n o
lo g
y ,
m ilita
ry
Econom ic Zones
• D
e n
g c
re a
te d
S p
e c ia
l E c o
n o
m ic
Z o
n e
s
• C
e rta
in re
g io
n s o
f C h
in a
h a
d d
iffe re
n t la
w s
th a
n o
th e
rs to c
re a
te e
c o
n o
m ic
h o
tsp o
ts
• A
re a
s w ith
in c re
a se
d in
te rn
a tio
n a
l tra d
e
• C
o a
sta l re
g io
n s w
ith P
o rts
• F o
re ig
n c
o m
p a
n ie
s c a
n in
v e
st h e
re
• E
n c o
u ra
g e
d to
se ll in
te rn
a tio
n a
lly a
t a
lo w
e r p
ric e
in th
e se
a re
a s
Farm ing and Agriculture
○ S
p lit c
o m
m u
n itie
s in to
c o
m m
u n
e s th
a t w
e re
m a
d e
u p
o f te
a m
s th a
t
w o
u ld
m a
k e
d e
c isio
n s fo
r th e
c o
m m
u n
ity a
s a w
h o
le (d
e c isio
n s o
n
b u
sin e
sse s, e
n v
iro n
m e
n ta
l issu e
s, e d
u c a
tio n
, e tc
.
○ c itize
n s c
a n
o w
n th
e ir la
n d
& g
u a
ra n
te e
d fo
o d
a n
d w
o rk
○ E
n c o
u ra
g e
d c
itize n
s to try
a n
d m
a k e
m o
n e
y a
n d
im p
a c t th
e ir m
a rk
e ts
Industry and M anufacturing
• Deng shifted a lot of pow
er to the local level •
Businesses had m ore control over their finances and m
anagem ent
• They could also now
select m anagers at a local level
• People also started getting m
ore m erit pay (Perform
ance related pay & greater
Incentives) •
Deng still left som e pow
er to the governm ent
• Governm
ent still had control over certain industries •
The governm ent can still redirect the econom
y as it sees fit
China's tw o special adm
inistrative regions M acau &
Hong Kong m aintains separate governing
and econom ic system
s from that ofm
ainland China under the principle of "one country, tw
o system
s“
• Established in 1997 and is in effect for 50 years
• Certain Chinese regions received freedom
s •
States could m anage their ow
n legislature •
Freedom of assem
bly and expression •
Freedom of econom
ic activity •
M ade regions such as Hong Kong very
prom inent in international investing
H ong Kong
officially the Hong Kong Special Adm
inistrative Region of the People's Republic of China (HKSAR)
over 7.5 m
illion residents of various nationalities Hong Kong is ranked 4th in the
Global Financial Center Index established as a
colony of the British Em pire
at the end of the First O
pium W
arin 1841 & Britain
obtained a 99-year lease
of the N
ew Territoriesin 1898.
• British Hong Kong w
asoccupied by
Im perial Japan
from 1941
to 1945
during W
orld W ar II
• British adm
inistration resum ed after the
surrender of Japan → territory transferred to China
in 1997 •
The Joint Declaration guarantees the Basic Law
of Hong Kong for 50 years after the transfer of
sovereignty.It does not specify how Hong Kong w
ill be governed after 2047, and the central governm
ent's role in determ ining the territory's future system
of governm ent is the subject of
political debate and speculation. Hong Kong's political and judicial system s m
ay be integrated w ith
China's at that tim e, or the territory m
ay continue to be adm inistered separately
M acau/ M
acao (One Country Tw
o System s
• M
acao Special Adm inistrative Region of the People's Republic of China
(M SAR)
• about 680,000
and an area of 32.9 km
2(12.7 sq
m i), it is the m
ostdensely populated region in
the w orld.
• Form
erly a Portuguese colony, , rem
ained under Portuguese rule until 1999, w hen it
w astransferred to China •
unique blend of Portuguese and Chinese architecture in the city'shistoric centerled to its inscription on the
U N
ESCO W
orld Heritage List in 2005 •
sparsely populated collection of coastal islands,M acau, often referred to as the "Las Vegas of
the East", has becom e a m
ajorresort city & top destination for gam
bling tourism , w
ith a gam bling
industry 7 tim es larger than that ofLas Vegas
• has one of the highest per capita incom
es in the w orld &
has a very high Hum
an Developm ent
Index & 4th highest life expectancy
in the w orld
Joining W TO
• D
e n
g sta
te d
th a
t “ S
h e
n zh
e n
’s d e
v e
lo p
m e
n t a
n d
e x p
e rie
n c e
p ro
v e
th a
t th e
p o
lic y
e sta
b lish
in g
se p
a ra
te e
c o
n o
m ic
zo n
e s is c
o rre
c t”
• Jo
in e
d W
o rld
T ra
d e
O rg
a n
iza tio
n in
2 0
0 1
● S
h rin
k in
g P
o v e
rty “
m o
re th
a n
8 5
0 m
illio n
p e
o p
le
h a
v e
b e
e n
lifte d
o u
t o f p
o v e
rty sin
c e
1 9
7 8
”
(W o
rld B
a n
k )
D eng X
iaoping unleashed C
hina’s pent-up capitalist energy in 1978
• In 1981, alm
ost 90% of
C hinese people lived in
extrem e poverty by the
definition of the W orld
B ank. B
y 2013, that num
ber had dropped to less than 2%
.
Exponential grow th on Per Capita G
DP from
1978 – 2016
Shares of G DP by Com
ponent (Agriculture, Industry and Services.
The facts
• C
h in
a ’s
e c o
n o
m ic
m ira
c le
is g
e n
u in
e :
– G
ro w
th ≈
1 0
% p
.a . fo
r 3 d
e c a
d e
s is
h is
to ric
.
– It to
o k
th e
U K
5 8
y e
a rs
to d
o u
b le
in c o
m e
, s ta
rtin g
fro m
1 7
8 0
• U
S : 4
7 y
e a
rs , fro
m 1
8 3
9
• Ja
p a
n : 3
5 y
e a
rs , fro
m 1
8 8
5
• K
o re
a : 1
1 y
e a
rs , fro
m 1
9 6
6
– B
u t it to
o k
C h
in a
o n
ly a
ro u
n d
8 y
e a
rs , fro
m 1
9 8
7 !
• O
n th
e o
th e
r h a
n d
, m o
s t C
h in
e s e
p e
o p
le a
re s
till n o
t ric h
. G D
P p
e r c
a p
ita ra
n k
s
m id
w a
y a
m o
n g
1 9
0 c
o u
n trie
s
26
PRC as sole legal representative of China at U N
• A
m id
th e
S in
o -S
o v
ie t sp
lit & V
ie tn
a m
W a
r, P re
sid e
n t
N ix
o n
e n
te re
d in
to
n e
g o
tia tio
n s w
ith M
a o
Z e
d o
n g
, in itia
lly th
ro u
g h
a se
c re
t 1 9
7 1
trip u
n d
e rta
k e
n
b y
H e
n ry
K issin
g e
r to
v isit
Z h
o u
E n
la i.
• O
n 2
5 O
c to
b e
r 1 9
7 1
, A lb
a n
ia 's m
o tio
n to
re c o
g n
ize th
e P
e o
p le
's R e
p u
b lic
o f C
h in
a
a s th
e so
le le
g a
l C h
in a
w a
s p a
sse d
a s
G e
n e
ra l A
sse m
b ly
R e
so lu
tio n
2 7
5 8
. It w a
s
su p
p o
rte d
b y
m o
st o f th
e c o
m m
u n
ist sta te
s (in
c lu
d in
g th
e S
o v
ie t U
n io
n ) a
n d
n o
n -
a lig
n e
d c
o u
n trie
s (su
c h
a s
In d
ia ), b
u t a
lso b
y so
m e
N A
T O
c o
u n
trie s su
c h
a s th
e
U n
ite d
K in
g d
o m
a n
d F
ra n
c e
.
• A
fte r th
e P
R C
w a
s se a
te d
o n
1 5
N o
v e
m b
e r 1
9 7
1 , N
ix o
n th
e n
p e
rso n
a lly
v isite
d
m a
in la
n d
C h
in a
th e
n e
x t y
e a
r, b e
g in
n in
g th
e n
o rm
a liza
tio n
o f
P R
C -U
S re
la tio
n s.
• T
h e
R e
p u
b lic
o f C
h in
a 's m
o st re
c e
n t re
q u
e st fo
r a d
m issio
n w
a s tu
rn e
d d
o w
n in
2 0
0 7
• Roads of D
evelopm ent
A N ew
Era: ”A bid to enhance regional connectivity and em
brace a brighter future” https://youtu.be/hN
KTbM x8PFk
• The Belt and Road Initiative becom
es reality
• initial focus has been infrastructure investm
ent, education, construction m
aterials, railw
ay and highw ay,
autom obile, real estate,
pow er grid, and
iron/steel •
The concept of Soft Pow
er
The Silk Road Econom ic Belt
The Polar Silk Road
• Russia-China Agreem
ent on N orthern
Arctic Sea Route along Russia’s internal w
aters •
O il/gas exploration, tourism
, scientific expeditions, infrastructure projects
• China’s Arctic Policy –To understand, protect, develop and participate clim
ate change issues and opportunities
Im portan
t Projects
T h
e R
a ilw
a y
to Lo
n d
o n
(1 8
d a
y jo
u rn
e y
!) 2 0
1 7
first Lo n
d o
n -
C h
in a
tra in
T h
e C
h in
a -P
a k
ista n
E co
n o
m ic C
o rrid
o r: B
ig g
e st p
ro je
ct - $
5 4
b illio
n in
v e
stm e
n t. O
p tic fib
e r ca
b le
s, g a
s p ip
e lin
e s, h
ig h
w a
y s
co n
n e
ctin g
C h
in a
to th
e G
u lf o
f O m
a n
(th e
G w
a d
a r P
o rt)
T h
e R
a ilw
a y
to Ira
n –
M id
d le
E a
st sta b
ility ?
A sia
n G
a s p
ip e
lin e
– fe
e d
in g
C h
in a
’s in sa
tia b
le a
p p
e tite
(o il
a n
d g
a s)
Project Funding
Various form s of agreem
ents signed w ith 138
countries and 30 international organizations
FU N
DIN G:
• Policy Banks (The China Developm
ent Bank) •
State O w
ned Banks (BO C –
Bank of China) •
State O w
ned Funds (CIC – China Investm
ent Cooperation)
• International Finance Institutions (The Asian Developm
ent Bank, •
Asian Infrastructure Developm ent Bank, established in
2013)
S in
c e
C h
in a
h a
s a
la rg
e s
h a
re o
f th e
g lo
b a
l e c o
n o
m y , its
g ro
w th
ra te
m a
tte rs
m o
re d
ire c tly
to a
ll th e
c o
u n
trie s
C hina &
other E m
erging m arkets w
ill dom inate the
w orld’s top 10
econom ies in 20
50 (G
D P
at P P
P s) P
W C
projections https://w
w w
.pw c.com
/gx/en/research- insights/econom
y/the-w orld-in-20
50 .htm
l
L et’s look
at som e ch
allen ges
W ill Chinese living exceed US living?
Several factors suggest that it w ill not:
• M
uch of Chinese grow th is due to capital investm
ent, w hich w
ill have dim inishing returns.
• China’s grow
th has depended on m oving w
orkers from low
-productivity agriculture to higher-productivity m
anufacturing.→ labor costs are rising, and this is rivaled by Indonesia
& Thailand.
• Aging Chinese population due to population control policies.
• China rem
ains largely autocratic, w ith concerns about security of property rights, hum
an rights violations and the rule of law,
• The Han m
ake 90 % of population &
dom inate politics. M
andarin dom inant language.
Geopolitics of fear
Ability to feed the population→ m
ore than 40% of arable
land is either polluted or has thinning topsoil
Geopolitics: Tibet is under control. China fears if they did not occupy it India w
ill. The three great rivers of China , the Yellow, Yangtze &
M ekong are in Tibet. Tibet is know
n as China’s W
ater Tow er.
Southeast province of “Xinjiang” native M uslim
Turkic population U
ighur people, speak Turkic→ declared
independence as “East Turkestan” tw ice in 1930s and
1940s→ province has oil &
hom e to China’s nuclear
w eapons &
key to “O ne Belt, O
ne Road” strategy
Is China becom insa M
aritim e Pow
er?
• U
ntil now China has never been a naval pow
er, alw ays
a land pow er.
• Betw
een China and the Pacific is the archipelago , w
hich included Taiw an in 2013. China w
ants to control the passagew
ays through this island chain, geopolitics dictates it.
• Taiw
an’s official nam e is Republic of China, to
differentiate from People’s Republic of China. W
hen Com
m unists em
erged victorious in 1949, the nationalists under Chiang Kai-shek w
ithdrew to Taiw
an. •
Am erica is com
m itted to defending Taiw
an in the event of invasion under Taiw
an Relations Act of 1979.
China trying to becom
e a tw o-ocean
pow er (Pacific &
Indian)
China investing in deep w ater-ports in
Burm a, Bangladesh, Pakistan, Sri
Lanka→ potential for its future navy to
have friendly bases to visit or reside in
• China claim
s alm ost entire South
China sea and the energy supplies believed to be beneath it. How
ever, M
alaysia, Taiw an, Philippines,
Vietnam and Brunei also have
territorial claim s.
The structure of China’s econom
y is “rebalancing”
• C
h in
a lo
n g
h a
d g
re a
t su cce
ss
w ith
m a
n u
fa ctu
rin g→
g ro
w th
w a
s le d
b y
e x p
o rts a
n d
in v e
stm e
n t
• B
u t re
ce n
tly it h
a s trie
d to
m o
v e
to w
a rd
se rv
ice s, w
ith
g ro
w th
le d
b y
co n
su m
e r
d e
m a
n d
(b a
se d
o n
D e
cisio n
a t
th e
T h
ird P
le n
u m
in 2
0 1
3 )
→ S
e rv
ice s a
re le
ss tra d
e -
in te
n siv
e th
a n
m a
n u
fa ctu
ring
References
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H istory of The G
lobal Econom y-1500 To the Present, Cam
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w w
.beltroad-initiative.com /belt-and-road/
• Foreign A
ffairs M agazine, A
utocracy N ow
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w w
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