I have 3 assisgnments that I need done by Saturday on finance

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Questions

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For SES solutions, use α = 0.1. For Holt solutions, use α = 0.95 and β = 0.01.
Forecasting Intermediate Methods Exercises
1. Recall the forecast produced for assignment 3 in Module 28 for the Northland special revenue fund. The original data are provided in Table 29.1.
a. Using the same initial data and assumptions, refine the forecast using the exponential smoothing method appropriate for nontrending data.
b. Produce a graph showing the original data, the 5-year moving average forecast from Module 28, and the forecast produced using the exponential method.
c. Which forecast would you recommend using, and why?
Table 29.1 Northland: Special Revenue Fund
1996 53,421,417
1997 64,600,858
1998 67,053,747
1999 24,316,124
2000 66,110,642
2001 93,389,137
2002 49,686,023
2003 20,706,410
2004 81,238,032
2005 49,055,130
2006 124,202,747
2007 86,126,170
2008 27,862,519
2009 85,704,726
2010 81,483,730
2011 45,459,605
2012 22,672,732
2013 58,226,034
2. Recall the forecast produced in assignment 5 in Module 28 for River County’s property tax revenue. The original data are provided in Table 29.2.
a. Using the same initial data and assumptions, refine the forecast using the exponential smoothing method appropriate for trending data.
b. Create a matrix showing the ME and RMSE for the three scenarios of moving-average forecasts from Module 28 and the ME and RMSE produced using the exponential method.
c. Which forecast would you recommend using, and why?
Table 29.2 River County: Property Tax Revenue
1992 34,762.30
1993 32,354.10
1994 30,971.70
1995 31,010.80
1996 32,382.90
1997 33,211.60
1998 36,407.80
1999 38,930.50
2000 43,246.20
2001 48,342.40
2002 45,042.60
2003 45,322.70
2004 44,165.60
2005 50,550.40
2006 62,733.40
2007 67,096.60
2008 70,422.90
2009 74,674.30
2010 74,996.80
2011 68,019.60
2012 62,401.20
2013 54,584.60
2014 39,843.00
x
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Put graphs here

This page for graphs only. Other pages are self-checking
Put solved data for Exercise 1 Here
Year Total State and Local Per Capita Taxes Paid ESForecast 5 yr MA
1996 53,421,417 Graph 1 for Exercise 1
1997 64,600,858
1998 67,053,747
1999 24,316,124
2000 66,110,642
2001 93,389,137
2002 49,686,023
2003 20,706,410
2004 81,238,032 Put Graph 1 Exercise 1 Here
2005 49,055,130
2006 124,202,747
2007 86,126,170
2008 27,862,519
2009 85,704,726
2010 81,483,730
2011 45,459,605
2012 22,672,732
2013 58,226,034 Graph 2 for Exercise 1
2014
2015
2016
Put Graph 2 Exercise 1 Here

Exercise 29.1

To show the cell checking, put a check here: x Grade Graph 1 Percent Correct 0%
Grade Graph 2
Special Revenue α Error Error SQ Error Error SQ
Mean
Year Revenue ESForecast RMSE 5 yr MA
1996 53,421,417
1997 64,600,858
1998 67,053,747
1999 24,316,124
2000 66,110,642
2001 93,389,137
2002 49,686,023
2003 20,706,410
2004 81,238,032
2005 49,055,130
2006 124,202,747
2007 86,126,170
2008 27,862,519
2009 85,704,726
2010 81,483,730
2011 45,459,605
2012 22,672,732
2013 58,226,034
2014
2015
2016
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Grade
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Answer 1

SES - Non Trending Data
α
Special Revenue 0.1 Error SQ Error SQ
Error 1,029,921,173,733,511 Error 1,100,099,466,542,052
Year Revenue ESForecast 4,663,957 32,092,384.98 Mean 5 yr MA (688,154) 33,167,747.38
1996 53,421,417 RMSE
1997 64,600,858 53,421,417 11,179,441
1998 67,053,747 54,539,361 12,514,386
1999 24,316,124 55,790,800 (31,474,676)
2000 66,110,642 52,643,332 13,467,310
2001 93,389,137 53,990,063 39,399,074 1,552,287,020,797,221 55100557.67 38,288,579 1,466,015,307,109,703
2002 49,686,023 57,929,971 (8,243,948) 67,962,679,098,423 63094101.67 (13,408,079) 179,776,587,028,988
2003 20,706,410 57,105,576 (36,399,166) 1,324,899,250,970,874 60111134.57 (39,404,724) 1,552,732,302,675,672
2004 81,238,032 53,465,659 27,772,373 771,304,714,650,116 50841667.21 30,396,365 923,939,016,763,843
2005 49,055,130 56,242,896 (7,187,766) 51,663,981,448,747 62226048.87 (13,170,918) 173,473,093,343,387
2006 124,202,747 55,524,120 68,678,627 4,716,753,794,755,179 58814946.5 65,387,800 4,275,564,428,072,680
2007 86,126,170 62,391,983 23,734,187 563,311,633,612,175 64977668.46 21,148,501 447,259,100,468,581
2008 27,862,519 64,765,401 (36,902,882) 1,361,822,720,562,647 72265697.88 (44,403,179) 1,971,642,294,649,278
2009 85,704,726 61,075,113 24,629,613 606,617,841,855,107 73696919.64 12,007,807 144,187,417,421,755
2010 81,483,730 63,538,074 17,945,655 322,046,541,895,946 74590258.392 6,893,471 47,519,945,295,525
2011 45,459,605 65,332,640 (19,873,035) 394,937,523,546,564 81075978.232 (35,616,373) 1,268,526,056,447,675
2012 22,672,732 63,345,336 (40,672,605) 1,654,260,763,141,180 65327349.832 (42,654,618) 1,819,416,439,455,820
2013 58,226,034 59,278,076 (1,052,042) 1,106,792,201,458 52636662.272 5,589,372 31,241,076,313,766
2014 59,172,872 58709365.272 Final Graph
2015 59,172,872 58709365.272
2016 59,172,872 58709365.272

Exercise 29.2

To show the cell checking, put a check here: x Grade Graph Percent Correct 0%
Please enter your name on the first page Grade in Points (All Sheets) 0.00
Property Tax Levy
Fiscal Year Tax Levy (in thousands) Initialize α β Forecast Error ErrorSQ ME RMSE
Mean MA3
RMSE MA5
MA7
This Forecast - 0 - 0
1992 34,762.3
1993 32,354.1
1994 30,971.7
1995 31,010.8
1996 32,382.9
1997 33,211.6
1998 36,407.8
1999 38,930.5
2000 43,246.2
2001 48,342.4
2002 45,042.6
2003 45,322.7
2004 44,165.6
2005 50,550.4
2006 62,733.4
2007 67,096.6
2008 70,422.9
2009 74,674.3
2010 74,996.8
2011 68,019.6
2012 62,401.2
2013 54,584.6
2014 39,843.0
2015
2016
2017
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Grade
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Answer 2

Holt Exp - Trending Data
Property Tax Levy
Fiscal Year Tax Levy (in thousands) Initialize α β Forecast Error ErrorSQ ME RMSE
7,731.3 0.95 0.01 (1,069.58) 34,287,346.80 Mean MA3 (1,924.58) 6,760.00
5 5,855.54 RMSE MA5 291.37 8,624.55
1546.27 MA7 (2,404.20) 10,594.99
3
27,657.55 27,657.55 1,546.27 Holt (1,069.58) 5,855.54
1992 34,762.3 34,484.38 1,601.85 29,203.82 5,558.48 30,896,711.47
1993 32,354.1 32,540.66 1,564.53 36,086.23 (3,732.18) 13,929,141.27
1994 30,971.7 31,128.35 1,533.19 34,105.19 (3,133.52) 9,818,932.48
1995 31,010.8 31,093.35 1,516.69 32,661.54 (1,650.73) 2,724,901.18
1996 32,382.9 32,296.4 32,394.28 1,514.42 32,610.04 (227.11) 51,581.08
1997 33,211.6 33,246.43 1,507.44 33,908.70 (697.12) 485,973.37
1998 36,407.8 36,325.07 1,523.98 34,753.88 1,653.88 2,735,322.75
1999 38,930.5 38,876.47 1,534.80 37,849.05 1,081.49 1,169,623.34
2000 43,246.2 43,104.45 1,563.15 40,411.27 2,834.93 8,036,855.60
2001 48,342.4 40,027.7 48,158.61 1,599.90 44,667.60 3,674.75 13,503,785.22
2002 45,042.6 45,278.35 1,552.74 49,758.51 (4,715.96) 22,240,241.69
2003 45,322.7 45,398.12 1,537.65 46,831.09 (1,508.39) 2,275,242.81
2004 44,165.6 44,304.14 1,509.95 46,935.77 (2,770.14) 7,673,668.03
2005 50,550.4 50,313.55 1,557.31 45,814.09 4,736.28 22,432,351.70
2006 62,733.4 62,190.28 1,665.94 51,870.87 10,862.54 117,994,873.26
2007 67,096.6 66,934.60 1,698.34 63,856.22 3,240.40 10,500,187.45
2008 70,422.9 70,333.37 1,716.24 68,632.94 1,789.93 3,203,831.57
2009 74,674.3 74,543.10 1,742.49 72,049.62 2,624.72 6,889,139.62
2010 74,996.8 75,061.24 1,729.60 76,285.59 (1,288.78) 1,660,960.36
2011 68,019.6 68,458.15 1,641.89 76,790.84 (8,771.25) 76,934,873.33
2012 62,401.2 62,786.12 1,564.90 70,100.04 (7,698.87) 59,272,624.63
2013 54,584.6 55,072.90 1,467.24 64,351.02 (9,766.44) 95,383,308.85
2014 39,843.0 40,677.84 1,300.26 56,540.14 (16,697.15) 278,794,845.25
2015 41,978.11 1,300.26 41,978.11
2016 43,278.37 1,300.26 43,278.37
2017 44,578.64 1,300.26 44,578.64

Tax Levy (in thousands)

Grade Worksheet

4 Total Points Available Item Grade Weight x A mark here makes the numbers in the grade calculation visible.
0.25 Base Points (for trying this exercise)
0.75 Manual Points
3 Points to be graded
0% Percent all sheets
0.00 Graded Points
0 Problem 1 Graph 1 0.15 0
0 Problem 1 Graph 2 0.15 0
0 Problem 1 Text 0.15 0
0 Problem 2 Graph 0.15 0
0 Problem 2 Text 0.15 0
0.25 Initial Grade 0.75
0.35 Minimum Earned Points
0.6 Threshold
0.00 Grade Grade Table
A 100%
B 90%
0 C 80%
239 D 70%
F 0%