BSBMKW507 Interpret Market Trends and Developments
Wamiq
Module_9.pptAnalyzing the ICT Market : Technology and Trends and the Impact of Technology on the Market
Carlo M. Rossotto, Tim Kelly
Cairo, March 10, 2009
Technology Trends and the ICT Market
Main Technology Trends Affecting the ICT Sector
Broadband
Wireless Technologies
Convergence
Handsets
Digital Content
How technology is affecting the ICT industry
Revenues and Industry Structure
Business Model
Firm Specialization
Product Differentiation
Technology Trends and the ICT Market
Main Technology Trends Affecting the ICT Sector
Broadband
Wireless Technologies
Convergence
Handsets
Digital Content
Main Technology Trends in ICT
Source: Pyramid Research.
Main Technology Trends in ICT
Source: Pyramid Research.
Note: shared throughput
Technology Trends and the ICT Market
Wireless Technologies: main trends
- Trend 1. Growth of 3G+
3G+ users to increase at a 38% CAGR from 2008 to 2013 and to account for 46% of all 5.9Bn mobile subscriptions in 2013 (Pyramid Research)
- Trend 2. Fixed wireless for development
31 African countries have deployed CDMA2000 1X Networks (ITU)
833,000 customers of W-CDMA in Africa (GSM Association)
- Trend 3. Wireless broadband for development
EVDO growth in Africa
Source: ITU
Country
Operator
Download Speed
Monthly Subscription (US$)
Nigeria
Starcomms
300-600 kbps
124
Rwanda
Rwandatel
400-700 kbps
62
Morocco
Wana
128-1000 kbps
24
Sudan
Canar
Up to 2 Mbps
29
Angola
Movicel
Up to 1 Mbps
257
CREATING OPPORTUNITY
In the Czech
Republic alone, fixed wireless providers using technologies such as CDMA
450 accounted for roughly 34% of all broadband connections in the country (OECD)
Technology Trends and the ICT Market
Convergence
- Convergence across technologies: multiple platforms are consolidating into a single IP-based platform, allowing voice, data and video consumption. The same digital content can be accessed and delivered across multiple platforms.
- Convergence across services: bundles of services, double-play and triple-play (Orange, for example, reported that 11% of its ADSL subscribers were also triple-play subscribers in 2007, up from 2.7% in 2005, Pyramid Research).
- Convergence across devices: Multiservice connectivity on a single end-user device. Dual-mode (WLAN-mobile) handsets and 3G-embedded computing devices has expanded over the past two years.
Operators still look at the bottom line when
they consider diversify across technologies and services
CREATING OPPORTUNITY
Technology Trends and the ICT Market
Broadband-enabled devices
Dual-mode (WLAN-mobile) Devices
PCs with embedded 3G capabilities
(50% of laptops by 2010; Pyramid Research)
iPhone and Blackberry
Smartphone unit sales globally to grow at a CAGR of 17%, or nearly three times as fast as the total handset market, to reach 313m in 2013. Smartphones from 8% of total handsets in 2008 to 18% of total handsets in 2013 (Pyramid Research)
Technology Trends and the ICT Market
Digital content
Source: OECD 2007
Technology Trends and the ICT Market
Digital content and Internet traffic
Global consumer Internet traffic 2005-11 in million terabytes/month
Source: OECD 2007
Chart1
| 2005 | 2005 | 2005 | 2005 |
| 2007 | 2007 | 2007 | 2007 |
| 2009 | 2009 | 2009 | 2009 |
| 2011 | 2011 | 2011 | 2011 |
Broadband technologies
| Access Technology | Peak Throughput (Download), (Mbps) | Range (Km) | Access Technology | Peak Throughput (Download), (Mbps) | Range (Km) | ||||||
| ADSL | 8 | 3 | FTTP (BPON-ATM) | 622 | 20 | ||||||
| ADSL 2+ | 24 | 1.5 | FTTP (BPON-Ethernet) | 1250 | 20 | ||||||
| WiFi | 54 | 0.1 | FTTP (GPON-Ethernet/GEM) | 1244 | 20 | ||||||
| WiMax | 75 | 50 | FTTP (GPON-Ethernet/ATM) | 2488 | 20 | ||||||
| VDSL | 100 | 0.4 |
Broadband technologies
| ADSL | ADSL |
| ADSL 2+ | ADSL 2+ |
| WiFi | WiFi |
| WiMax | WiMax |
| VDSL | VDSL |
ENVO
| FTTP (BPON-ATM) | FTTP (BPON-ATM) |
| FTTP (BPON-Ethernet) | FTTP (BPON-Ethernet) |
| FTTP (GPON-Ethernet/GEM) | FTTP (GPON-Ethernet/GEM) |
| FTTP (GPON-Ethernet/ATM) | FTTP (GPON-Ethernet/ATM) |
OECD Digital Content
| Country | Operator | Download Speed | Monthly Subscription (US$) | |||
| Nigeria | Starcomms | 300-600 kbps | 124 | |||
| Rwanda | Rwandatel | 400-700 kbps | 62 | |||
| Morocco | Wana | 128-1000 kbps | 24 | |||
| Sudan | Canar | Up to 2 Mbps | 29 | |||
| Angola | Movicel | Up to 1 Mbps | 257 |
Sheet4
| OECD Information Technology Outlook: 2008 - OECD © 2008 - ISBN 9789264055537 | ||||||
| Chapter 5 | ||||||
| Version 1 - Last updated: 07-Oct-2008 | ||||||
| Chapter 5.Digital content in transition | ||||||
| Table 5.1. Market size and growth, 2007 or latest available year | ||||||
| Global revenues (offline + online) | USD 37.5 billion | USD 84 billion | USD 30 billion | USD 445 billion | ||
| Growth of market (offline + online) | 19% (2006-07) | 4% (2006-07) | -6% (2006-07) | 5% (2006-07) | ||
| Global online revenues | USD 6.5 billion | Marginal | USD 4.7 billion | USD 31 billion | ||
| Increasingly all new games are Internet-enabled | ||||||
| Growth of online market | 28% (2006-07) | >100% (2006-07) | 27% (2006-2007) | 28% (2006-07) | ||
| Share of online in total | 17% but increasingly all new games are Internet-enabled | Marginal | 16% | 7.50% | ||
| (under 1% in most markets) | ||||||
| Unauthorised downloading of online content and its impact | Low for Internet-enabled games but growing quickly | Medium and growing | High | n.a. |
Sheet5
Sheet6
Technology Trends and the ICT Market
Digital Content and User Created Content
Blogs
Wikis
Photo-sharing
Podcasting
Social Network Sites
Virtual Worlds
File-Sharing P2P
How Technology is affecting the Industry
Revenues and Industry Structure: A fast-changing picture
- PSTN revenues sharply down. less in global PSTN revenue down $103bn in 2013 than in 2008 (Pyramid)
- Mobile subscriber growth rates decelerating in most regions, with penetration rates hovering around the 80-120% range (CAGR of 8% for mobile subscriptions in 2008-2013) (Pyramid)
- Fixed and mobile broadband lines to increase threefold between 2008 and 2013, from 964m to 3.3bn (Pyramid)
- Internet access will generate nearly 55% of total fixed revenue in 2013.
- Mobile data to grow at a 16% CAGR from 2008 to 2013, making up 34% of global mobile revenue in 2013.
- Revenue per fixed broadband line, currently at an average of $33, are to decline (CAGR of -5%). FTTx has highest ARPS — 2X cable or DSL in 2008
Source: Pyramid Research
Revenues and Industry Structure: A fast-changing picture
- Egypt is the seventh fastest growing broadband market in the world, with over 30% compounded growth rate
- Ten fastest growing broadband markets are in Asia, MNA, Latin America and Africa
- Operators boasting the highest data ARPS are those with the highest percentage of subscribers using 3G-enabled devices.
- Messaging revenues (email, SMS and MMS) were 58% of mobile data revenues in 2008 (projected 44% in 2013)
- Web access was 21% of mobile data revenues in 2008 (projected 28% in 2013)
- The rest is applications : music (high growth rate), games, graphic, ringtones…
- Source: Pyramid Research
How Technology is affecting the Industry
How Technology is affecting the Industry
Digital content development and on-line business models
- Advertisement (e.g. 99% of Google revenues)
- Voluntary donations (e.g. blogs)
- Pay-per-view and pay-per-item (e.g. IPTV model)
- Licensing content to third parties
- Online sales (e.g. portals Amazon, eBay)
- Sale of user data, clickstream analysis
Technology Trends and the ICT Market
- Convergence may destroy as much value as it creates by bringing in new sources of revenue (Pyramid)
- Bundles, access to digital content and advertisement are key to the evolving business models
- Bundles:
- fixed offers: bundles are key to customer acquisition and customer retention
- mobile offers: increase data usage and ARPS.
Technology Trends and the ICT Market
- How are firms reacting:
- New services
- Organisational restructuring
- Mergers and Acquisitions
- Firm Specialisation
- New Entry
Data Revenues as a % of total mobile revenues
05101520253035
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
2005200720092011
P2P
Internet video (PC, TV,
communication)
Web, Email, FTP
Online games
Broadband Technologies I : Throughput and Range
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
ADSLADSL 2+WiFiWiMaxVDSL
Peak Throughput
(Download), (Mbps)
Range (Km)
Computer and video games
1
Film and video
2
Music
3
Advertising
4
Global revenues (offline + online)USD 37.5 billionUSD 84 billionUSD 30 billionUSD 445 billion
Growth of market (offline + online)19% (2006-07)4% (2006-07)-6% (2006-07)5% (2006-07)
USD 6.5 billion
Increasingly all new games are
Internet-enabled
Growth of online market28% (2006-07)>100% (2006-07)27% (2006-2007)28% (2006-07)
Marginal
(under 1% in most markets)
Low for Internet-enabled games but
growing quickly
(i.e. ”server piracy”)
Share of online in total17% but increasingly all new games
are Internet-enabled
16%7.50%
Global online revenuesMarginalUSD 4.7 billionUSD 31 billion
Unauthorised downloading of
online content and its impact
Medium and growingHighn.a.
Broadband Technologies II : Throughput and Range
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
FTTP (BPON-ATM)FTTP (BPON-
Ethernet)
FTTP (GPON-
Ethernet/GEM)
FTTP (GPON-
Ethernet/ATM)
Mbps
0
5
10
15
20
25
Km
Peak Throughput
(Download), (Mbps)
Range (Km)
