Data Analysis & Decision Making

MIS-665-RS-Topic-8-Student-Data-Template-and-Example-Files.zip

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Topic 8 Assignment Template and Data Files/P06_31.xlsx

Data

Tire plant decisions
Decision\outcome	Expand	Remain stable	Contract
Construct a new plant	$400,000	-$100,000	-$200,000
Expand existing plant	$250,000	-$50,000	-$75,000
Do nothing	$50,000	$0	-$30,000

Topic 8 Assignment Template and Data Files/P06_33.xlsx

Data

Introduction of new products
	Trend in national economy
Decisions\outcomes	Strong	Fair	Weak
Introduce neither product	$0	$0	$0
Introduce Product 1 only	$500,000	$260,000	$120,000
Introduce Product 2 only	$420,000	$230,000	$110,000
Introduce both products	$820,000	$390,000	$200,000

Topic 8 Assignment Template and Data Files/Template files not provided for the rest of the problems.docx

Topic 8 Chapter 6 Examples (Finished)/New Product Decisions - Single-Stage Finished.xlsx

Model

Acme single-stage new product decision
Decision 1: Continue development and market the new product				% decrease in all sales volumes	0%
Fixed cost	$6,000			EMV for decision 1	$1,074
Unit margin	$18
				Sensitivity analysis to percentage decrease in all sales volumes
Market	Probability	Sales volume	Net revenue	% decrease	EMV for decision 1
Great	0.45	600	$10,800		$1,074
Fair	0.35	300	$5,400	5%	$720
Awful	0.20	90	$1,620	10%	$367
				15%	$13
EMV	$1,074			20%	-$341
Decision 2: Stop development and abandon product
No payoffs, no costs, no uncertainty
EMV	$0

All monetary values (except the unit margin in cell B5) are in $1000s, and all sales volumes are in 1000s of units.

Decision Tree 1

Market product

Abandon product

0.45

0.35

0.20

600(18) = 10800

-6000

1074

300(18) = 5400

90(18) = 1620

7074

Great

Fair

Awful

Decision Tree 2

Market product

Abandon product

0.45

0.35

0.20

600(18) -6000 = 4800

-6000

1074

300(18) -6000 = -600

90(18) -6000 = -4380

1074

Great

Fair

Awful

Topic 8 Chapter 6 Examples (Finished)/New Product Decisions - Single-Stage with PrecisionTree Finished.xlsx

Model

Acme single-stage new product decision
Inputs
Fixed cost	$6,000
Unit margin	$18
Market	Probability	Sales volume	Net revenue
Great	0.45	600	$10,800
Fair	0.35	300	$5,400
Awful	0.20	90	$1,620
		45.0%	45.0%
		$10,800	$4,800
	TRUE	Sales volume
	-$6,000	$1,074
		35.0%	35.0%
		$5,400	-$600
		20.0%	$0
		$1,620	-$4,380
	Continue with product?
	$1,074
	FALSE	0.0%
	0	$0

All monetary values (except the unit margin in cell B5) are in $1000s, and all sales volumes are in 1000s of units.

New Product Decision

Yes

Great

Fair

Awful

treeCalc_1

0,1,1,0,0,Exponential, 0,0,-1,0,-1,-1,.0001

Last Modified By Version

Continue with product?

Topic 8 Chapter 6 Examples (Finished)/Simple Decision Problem Finished.xlsx

Model

Decision 1		Decision 2		Decision 3
Payoff/Cost	Probability	Payoff/Cost	Probability	Payoff/Cost	Probability
$50,000	0.1	$5,000	0.6	$3,000	1
$10,000	0.2	-$1,000	0.4
-$5,000	0.7
EMV	$3,500	EMV	$2,600	EMV	$3,000

Decision Tree

Decision 1

Decision 2

Decision 3

0.1

0.2

0.7

0.6

0.4

50000

10000

-5000

5000

-1000

3000

2600

3500

TopicInfo

test

GlobalInfo

Topic 8 Chapter 6 Examples (Templates,Data)/New Product Decisions - Single-Stage.xlsx

Model

Acme single-stage new product decision
Decision 1: Continue development and market the new product
Fixed cost	$6,000
Unit margin	$18
Market	Probability	Sales volume	Net revenue
Great	0.45	600	$10,800
Fair	0.35	300	$5,400
Awful	0.20	90	$1,620
EMV
Decision 2: Stop development and abandon product
No payoffs, no costs, no uncertainty
EMV

All monetary values (except the unit margin in cell B5) are in $1000s, and all sales volumes are in 1000s of units.

Topic 8 Chapter 6 Examples (Templates,Data)/Simple Decision Problem.xlsx

Model

Decision 1		Decision 2		Decision 3
Payoff/Cost	Probability	Payoff/Cost	Probability	Payoff/Cost	Probability
$50,000	0.1	$5,000	0.6	$3,000	1
$10,000	0.2	-$1,000	0.4
-$5,000	0.7
EMV		EMV		EMV