discussion board
Carlos3
Midterm2_forecastingbonus.xlsxSheet1
| Period | Engine Failures | (a) 4-period moving average | (b) weighted moving average with weights of (6,3,1) | (c) simple exponential smoothing with alpha=0.4 and period 2 follows naïve forecast | (d) trend projection |
| 1 | 155 | ||||
| 2 | 178 | ||||
| 3 | 266 | ||||
| 4 | 295 | ||||
| 5 | 330 | ||||
| 6 | 328 | ||||
| 7 | 376 | ||||
| 8 | 398 | ||||
| Questions | |||||
| 1. Please plot the data and describe the patterns | |||||
| 2. Generate forecasts for all possible periods using above four methods | |||||
| 3. Compute MAPE and explain which method you would recommend | |||||
