Technology and information management

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year	period	demand	de season	regress d	season	avg sea	forecast	error	abs error	mse	mad	% error	mape	ts
2002	1	2250	3274	0.69	0.81	2665	415	415	172387	415	18.45	18.45	1.00
2	1737	3501	0.50	0.54	1908	171	171	100762	293	9.83	4.91	2.00
3	2412	3575	3728	0.65	0.64	2372	-40	40	67716	209	1.67	0.56	2.61
4	7269	3784	3955	1.84	1.65	6524	-745	745	189586	343	10.25	2.56	-0.58
2003	5	3514	3965	4182	0.84	0.81	3404	-110	110	154073	296	3.12	0.62	-1.04
6	2143	4070	4409	0.49	0.54	2402	259	259	139615	290	12.11	2.02	-0.17
7	3459	4119	4636	0.75	0.64	2949	-510	510	156772	321	14.73	2.10	-1.74
8	7056	4272	4863	1.45	1.65	8022	966	966	253737	402	13.69	1.71	1.01
2004	9	4120	4237	5090	0.81	0.81	4144	24	24	225605	360	0.57	0.06	1.19
10	2766	4275	5317	0.52	0.54	2897	131	131	204767	337	4.74	0.47	1.66
11	2556	4596	5544	0.46	0.64	3527	971	971	271872	395	37.99	3.45	3.88
12	8256	4969	5771	1.43	1.65	9519	1263	1263	382237	467	15.30	1.28	5.99
2005	13	5491	5391	5998	0.92	0.81	4883	-608	608	381302	478	11.08	0.85	4.58
14	4382	6083	6225	0.70	0.54	3392	-990	990	424072	515	22.59	1.61	2.33
15	4315	6575	6452	0.67	0.64	4105	-210	210	398749	494	4.87	0.32	2.00
16	12035	6509	6679	1.80	1.65	11017	-1018	1018	438572	527	8.46	0.53	-0.06
2006	17	5648	6490	6906	0.82	0.81	5622	-26	26	412814	498	0.46	0.03	-0.11
18	3696	6688	7133	0.52	0.54	3887	191	191	391901	480	5.16	0.29	0.28
19	4843	7360	0.66	0.64	4682	-161	161	372633	464	3.32	0.17	-0.06
20	13097	7587	1.73	1.65	12515	-582	582	370939	470	4.44	0.22	-1.30
2007	21	7814	0.81	6361
22	8041	0.54	4382
23	8268	0.64	5260
24	8495	1.65	14013

Demand and De Seasonalized Demand

demand 2250 1737 2412 7269 3514 2143 3459 7056 4120 2766 2556 8256 5491 4382 4315 12035 5648 3696 4843 13097 de season

3575 3783.75 3965.375 4069.625 4118.75 4272.375 4237.375 4274.5 4595.875 4969.25 5391.125 6083.375 6575.375 6509.25 6489.5 6688.25

Period

Units

Demand vs Forecast

demand 2250 1737 2412 7269 3514 2143 3459 7056 4120 2766 2556 8256 5491 4382 4315 12035 5648 3696 4843 13097 forecast 2665.19459021072 1907.69782875737 2371.71869770765 6523.88550882159 3404.35057307918 2402.46778834369 2949.37979682744 8021.65745370401 4143.50655594764 2897.23774793001 3527.04089594722 9519.42939858644 4882.6625388161 3392.00770751633 4104.701995067 11017.2013434689 5621.81852168456 3886.77766710264 4682.36309418679 12514.9732883513 6360.97450455302 4381.54762668896 5260.02419330657 14012.7452332337

Time

Units

Demand and De Seasonalized Demand

demand 2250 1737 2412 7269 3514 2143 3459 7056 4120 2766 2556 8256 5491 4382 4315 12035 5648 3696 4843 13097 de season

3575 3783.75 3965.375 4069.625 4118.75 4272.375 4237.375 4274.5 4595.875 4969.25 5391.125 6083.375 6575.375 6509.25 6489.5 6688.25

Period

Units

Demand vs Forecast

Time

Units

4 point

year	period	demand	level	forecast	error	abs error	mse	mad	% error	mape	ts
2002	1	2250
2	1737
3	2412
4	7269	3417
2003	5	3514	3733	3417	-97	97	1882	19	2.76	0.55	-5.00
6	2143	3835	3733	1590	1590	422918	281	74.20	12.37	5.31
7	3459	4096	3835	376	376	382644	295	10.86	1.55	6.34
8	7056	4043	4096	-2960	2960	1429829	628	41.95	5.24	-1.74
2004	9	4120	4195	4043	-77	77	1271618	567	1.87	0.21	-2.06
10	2766	4350	4195	1429	1429	1348517	653	51.64	5.16	0.40
11	2556	4125	4350	1794	1794	1518591	757	70.20	6.38	2.72
12	8256	4425	4125	-4132	4132	2814483	1038	50.04	4.17	-2.00
2005	13	5491	4767	4425	-1067	1067	2685478	1040	19.42	1.49	-3.02
14	4382	5171	4767	385	385	2504260	993	8.79	0.63	-2.78
15	4315	5611	5171	856	856	2386187	984	19.84	1.32	-1.93
16	12035	6556	5611	-6424	6424	4816286	1324	53.38	3.34	-6.29
2006	17	5648	6595	6556	908	908	4581446	1300	16.07	0.95	-5.71
18	3696	6424	6595	2899	2899	4793821	1388	78.44	4.36	-3.25
19	4843	6556	6424	1581	1581	4672988	1399	32.63	1.72	-2.10
20	13097	6821	6556	-6542	6542	6578899	1656	49.95	2.50	-5.73
2007	21	6821
22	6821
23	6821
24	6821

Demand and Forecast

demand 2250 1737 2412 7269 3514 2143 3459 7056 4120 2766 2556 8256 5491 4382 4315 12035 5648 3696 4843 13097 forecast 3417 3733 3834.5 4096.25 4043 4194.5 4350.25 4124.5 4424.5 4767.25 5171.25 5611 6555.75 6595 6423.5 6555.5 6821 6821 6821 6821

Time

Units

simple ex

year	period	demand	level	forecast	error	abs error	mse	mad	% error	mape	ts
0	5052
2002	1	2250	4884	5052	2802	2802	7852605	2802	124.54	124.54	1.00
2	1737	4695	4884	3147	3147	8878469	2975	181.18	90.59	2.00
3	2412	4558	4695	2283	2283	7656781	2744	94.66	31.55	3.00
4	7269	4721	4558	-2711	2711	7579572	2736	37.29	9.32	2.02
2003	5	3514	4649	4721	1207	1207	6354995	2430	34.35	6.87	2.77
6	2143	4498	4649	2506	2506	6342099	2443	116.92	19.49	3.78
7	3459	4436	4498	1039	1039	5590357	2242	30.04	4.29	4.58
8	7056	4593	4436	-2620	2620	5749721	2289	37.13	4.64	3.34
2004	9	4120	4565	4593	473	473	5135726	2088	11.48	1.28	3.89
10	2766	4457	4565	1799	1799	4945672	2059	65.03	6.50	4.82
11	2556	4343	4457	1901	1901	4824504	2044	74.36	6.76	5.78
12	8256	4577	4343	-3913	3913	5698623	2200	47.40	3.95	3.60
2005	13	5491	4632	4577	-914	914	5324459	2101	16.64	1.28	3.33
14	4382	4617	4632	250	250	4948616	1969	5.71	0.41	3.68
15	4315	4599	4617	302	302	4624800	1858	7.01	0.47	4.06
16	12035	5045	4599	-7436	7436	7791491	2206	61.79	3.86	0.05
2006	17	5648	5081	5045	-603	603	7354535	2112	10.67	0.63	-0.23
18	3696	4998	5081	1385	1385	7052589	2072	37.49	2.08	0.43
19	4843	4989	4998	155	155	6682670	1971	3.21	0.17	0.53
20	13097	5475	4989	-8108	8108	9635507	2278	61.91	3.10	-3.10
2007	21	5475
22	5475
23	5475
24	5475

Demand and Forecast

demand 2250 1737 2412 7269 3514 2143 3459 7056 4120 2766 2556 8256 5491 4382 4315 12035 5648 3696 4843 13097 forecast 5052.25 4884.115 4695.2881 4558.290814 4720.93336516 4648.5173632504 4498.18632145538 4435.83514216805 4593.04503363797 4564.66233161969 4456.74259172251 4342.69803621916 4577.49615404601 4632.30638480325 4617.28800171505 4599.15072161215 5045.30167831542 5081.46357761649 4998.3357629595 4989.01561718193 5475.49468015102 5475.49468015102 5475.49468015102 5475.49468015102

Time

Units

holt

year	period	demand	level	trend	forecast	error	abs error	mse	mad	% error	mape	ts
0	2043	287
2002	1	2250	2325	287	2330	80	80	6400	80	3.56	3.56	1.00
2	1737	2559	284	2325	588	588	176190	334	33.86	16.93	2.00
3	2412	2817	282	2559	147	147	124704	272	6.11	2.04	3.00
4	7269	3349	297	2817	-4452	4452	5048335	1317	61.24	15.31	-2.76
2003	5	3514	3638	297	3349	-165	165	4044092	1086	4.69	0.94	-3.50
6	2143	3827	290	3638	1495	1495	3742782	1155	69.78	11.63	-2.00
7	3459	4078	288	3827	368	368	3227491	1042	10.65	1.52	-1.86
8	7056	4527	297	4078	-2978	2978	3932602	1284	42.20	5.28	-3.83
2004	9	4120	4782	295	4527	407	407	3514066	1187	9.88	1.10	-3.80
10	2766	4938	287	4782	2016	2016	3569203	1270	72.90	7.29	-1.96
11	2556	5065	277	4938	2382	2382	3760756	1371	93.21	8.47	-0.08
12	8256	5517	287	5065	-3191	3191	4295950	1523	38.65	3.22	-2.17
2005	13	5491	5785	286	5517	26	26	3965543	1407	0.47	0.04	-2.33
14	4382	5970	280	5785	1403	1403	3822960	1407	32.03	2.29	-1.33
15	4315	6134	273	5970	1655	1655	3750758	1424	38.36	2.56	-0.15
16	12035	6745	294	6134	-5901	5901	5692427	1703	49.03	3.06	-3.59
2006	17	5648	6955	289	6745	1097	1097	5428401	1668	19.43	1.14	-3.01
18	3696	7031	276	6955	3259	3259	5717005	1756	88.19	4.90	-1.00
19	4843	7159	267	7031	2188	2188	5668070	1779	45.18	2.38	0.24
20	13097	7766	287	7159	-5938	5938	7147725	1987	45.34	2.27	-2.77
2007	21	8053
22	8341
23	8628
24	8915

2250 1737 2412 7269 3514 2143 3459 7056 4120 2766 2556 8256 5491 4382 4315 12035 5648 3696 4843 13097

Demand and Forecast

demand 2250 1737 2412 7269 3514 2143 3459 7056 4120 2766 2556 8256 5491 4382 4315 12035 5648 3696 4843 13097 forecast 2330 2325.2 2559.41728 2817.120820992 3349.32371456891 3638.40526915875 3827.43407150424 4078.01718305158 4527.15684604709 4782.2919646171 4938.49472500029 5064.90433875049 5516.69732005618 5785.34421213132 5970.27265151828 6134.36760299655 6745.26713401534 6955.33573149055 7030.97380448388 7158.88768740147 8053.31316843741 8340.59679520546 8627.88042197351 8915.16404874156

Time

Units

2250 1737 2412 7269 3514 2143 3459 7056 4120 2766 2556 8256 5491 4382 4315 12035 5648 3696 4843 13097

Demand and Forecast

Time

Units

winter

year	period	demand	level	trend	avg sea	forecast	error	abs error	mse	mad	% error	mape	ts
0	3047	227
2002	1	2250	3213	223	0.81	2665	415	415	172387	415	18.45	18.45	1.00
2	1737	3334	217	0.54	1872	135	135	95338	275	7.79	3.89	2.00
3	2412	3483	213	0.64	2259	-153	153	71336	234	6.33	2.11	1.70
4	7269	3910	226	1.65	6097	-1172	1172	397086	469	16.13	4.03	-1.65
2003	5	3514	4099	224	0.81	3339	-175	175	323789	410	4.98	1.00	-2.32
6	2143	4192	216	0.54	2349	206	206	276921	376	9.63	1.60	-1.98
7	3459	4351	212	0.64	2819	-640	640	295830	414	18.50	2.64	-3.34
8	7056	4713	221	1.66	7585	529	529	293845	428	7.50	0.94	-1.99
2004	9	4120	4886	219	0.81	3998	-122	122	262843	394	2.96	0.33	-2.48
10	2766	4964	210	0.54	2764	-2	2	236559	355	0.07	0.01	-2.75
11	2556	5017	201	0.65	3358	802	802	273457	396	31.36	2.85	-0.44
12	8256	5400	212	1.65	8621	365	365	261762	393	4.42	0.37	0.48
2005	13	5491	5605	211	0.81	4558	-933	933	308586	435	16.99	1.31	-1.71
14	4382	5730	206	0.54	3155	-1227	1227	394094	491	28.00	2.00	-4.01
15	4315	5839	200	0.64	3802	-513	513	385359	493	11.89	0.79	-5.04
16	12035	6399	222	1.64	9933	-2102	2102	637516	593	17.47	1.09	-7.73
2006	17	5648	6562	218	0.82	5444	-204	204	602468	570	3.62	0.21	-8.40
18	3696	6595	207	0.56	3769	73	73	569291	543	1.97	0.11	-8.69
19	4843	6685	200	0.65	4398	-445	445	549773	538	9.20	0.48	-9.61
20	13097	7258	223	1.66	11422	-1675	1675	662512	594	12.79	0.64	-11.50
2007	21	0.81	6090
22	0.54	4197
23	0.64	5042
24	1.65	13441

Demand and Forecast

demand 2250 1737 2412 7269 3514 2143 3459 7056 4120 2766 2556 8256 5491 4382 4315 12035 5648 3696 4843 13097 forecast 2665.19459021072 1872.23861032893 2259.25603790594 6096.67909264607 3339.06678287596 2349.34956313904 2819.24371702329 7585.09721143549 3998.23014851115 2764.17699169034 3357.52245482043 8620.85625884956 4558.01157412206 3154.92820442176 3802.10366130884 9932.65004960861 5443.8070081958 3768.67266406822 4397.51701839444 11422.322164318 6089.56648990779 4197.42759904443 5042.20044054554 13440.5589011818

Time

Units