forcasting

Problem#3: Apple iPhone 12 released in October 2020. You have been tasked by TRUAnalytics Inc. to find the rate at which the new iPhone will be adopted by North American market during the upcoming year. Using the likelihood of a new product adoption due to Imitation and Innovation, the forecast of the sales of iPhone 12 during time t , Ft can be formulated as:

Where is the cumulative sales from the previous months,

known as the coefficient of innovation that can be interpreted as adoption due to interest to innovation,

known as the coefficient of imitation known as social media (word of mouth) effect. Both parameters and are unknown and must be estimated. The population in North America to adopt iPhone 12 by October 3, 2021, is assumed to be 400 million.

We are in month of November 2020 and the predicted sales for the next year is given by Apple shown in the excel file. Use the given data, code basic excel , to forecast the sales of iPhone 12 by estimating/optimizing the values of the two unknown parameters, i.e. . [40 marks]

[Hints: For the first month forecast simply use current sales]

a) Plot both the actual sales and your estimated forecasts in one graph against the time of November 3, 2020 to December 3, 2021. [2 marks]

b) Use your estimated model; comment on the impact of word of mouth compared to the innovation effect. [4 marks]

c) Use your estimated model, forecast iPhone 12 sales for November & December 2021. [4 marks]

{Hint: In all your forecasting process, your objective function should be MAPE. }

Problem#3: Code basic Excel to Forecast iPhone 12 sales inside a new sheet

in your excel file. [50 marks]

Problem#3: Apple iPhone 12 released in October 2020. You have been tasked by

TRUAnalytics Inc. to find the rate at which the new iPhone will be adopted by North

American market during the upcoming year. Using the likelihood of a new product

adoption due to Imitation and Innovation, the forecast of the sales of iPhone 12 during

time t, F

t

can be formulated as:

𝑭

𝒕

=൜𝒑+𝒒∗൬

𝑪

𝒕−𝟏

𝒎

൰ൠ∗[𝒎−𝑪

𝒕−𝟏

]

Where 𝑪

𝒕−𝟏

is the cumulative sales from the previous month s,

𝒑 known as the coefficient of innovation that can be interpreted as adoption due to

interest to innovation,

𝒒 known as the coefficient of imitation known as social media (word of mouth) ef fect.

Both parameters 𝒑 and 𝒒 are unknown and must be estimated. The population in North

America to adopt iPhone 12 by October 3, 2021, 𝒎 is assumed to be 400 million .

We are in month of November 20 20 and the predicted sales for the next year is given by

Apple shown in the excel file . Use the given data, code basic excel, to forecast the sales

of iPhone 12 by estimating/optimizing the values of the two unknown parameters, i.e. 𝒑,

𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝒒 . [40 marks]

[Hints: For the first month forecast simply use current sales]

a) Plot both the actual sales and your estimated forecasts in one graph against the

time of November 3, 2020 to December 3, 2021. [2 marks]

b) Use your estimated model; comment on the impact of word of mouth compared to

the innovation effect. [4 marks]

c) Use your estimated model, forecast iPhone 12 sales for November & December

2021. [4 marks]

{Hint: In all your forecasting process, your objective function should be MAPE. }