Business Decision Analytics

MGT 602 BDA Business Decision Analytics: MODULE 1 summary Dr Fleur Fallon,

Senior learning Facilitator- Co-ordinator BDA

March 2019

• Learning outcomes: 4

• Assessments: 1-2-3

• Module 1: Weeks 1-2 Decision-making as an individual

• Key terms

• Questions

• Activities- related to preparation for Assessment 1

• Reading; viewing- select from within the subject modules

• Week 3 preview- go to Module 4: Bias, heuristics, blind spots

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Level 1 – Intro copy Level 2 – Body text • Level 3 – Bullet 1

• Level 4 – Bullet 2 • Level 5 – Bullet 3

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Learning outcomes- through examining decision-making at individual, team and organisational level, you will be able to:

a) Select and evaluate the usefulness of a range of decision making tools and reflect on your decision-making styles and contrast with other styles to determine the respective levels of rationality and intuition utilised

b) Compare, contrast and critically evaluate sources of data as influences for decision making in a range of business contexts

c) Examine and evaluate decision-making systems and techniques to engage group decisions and analyse how these can enhance sustainable outcomes

d) Critically examine emerging tools and technologies for decision making

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Your study team and readings: by now you should be reading, reflecting and discussing with your study team.

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Learning strategy: go to learning resources in each subject module- select some readings, and videos. Note, reflect, share key learnings with your study team. Select more from within the Library Business databases, https://library.torrens.edu.au/business. Try Emerald Insight as a user-friendly site. Select some relevant readings and add to your range of references. Go! You can do it!

Assessment 2: due week 8, (Good) Friday 19 April • 3,000 words team case study report • Contemporary organizational challenge-

you decide! • WEIGHTING: 40% X/40

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Assessments

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Assessment 1: due week 4, Friday 22 March before midnight –penalty for late submission applies from 9.00am Monday 25

March

• 1,000 words individual reflective report- structure with headings

• Word count does not include list of contents; executive summary, references, appendices, tables, graphs (for all work)

• WEIGHTING: 20% X/20

• Assessment 3: due week 11, Friday 10 May

• 2,000 words individual analyis report • Relevant organizational context-you decide! • WEIGHTING: 60% X/60

• Data – what constitutes data, eg, temperature? • Information- sense-making- how do you interrogate data to identify

patterns and trends that inform your decision making, eg,weather ? • Knowledge-at what stage can you be sure that the accumulated

data trends constitute accepted knowledge, eg, seasons? • Wisdom-what is the evidence to support the ‘wisdom’ of the age, eg

climate change? • Rationality – Intuition –Logic – Balance – Ethics. How do these

elements interact in our decision-making?

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MODULE 1:Decision-making influences – reflection on your reality

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Reflecting on your decisions over one week

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Activity 1: Keep a handwritten journal of your daily decisions for one week

• Can you identify a pattern? What are the influences on your daily decision-making?

• How long does it take to make these decisions? • Did you notice, like me, that there are particular

regular data inputs, that influence you- see notes from my diary.

• How about the larger decisions? What is the difference- time, searching options, thinking through consequences- brainstorming, weighing +/- ; scenarios?

Activity 2: Can you represent the pattern of data with hand drawn visual form? Pictographs/ graphs/ pie charts? See the TED talk: https://www.ted.com/talks/mona_chalabi_3_ways_to_spot_a_bad_statistic

https://www.ted.com/talks/david_mccandless_the_beauty_of_data_visualization

How does big data impact you and your decisions? How do you contribute to the creation of big data? See the TED talk: https://www.ted.com/talks/kenneth_cukier_big_data_is_better_data/transcript#t- 939712

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Interpreting the data

• Insufficient for all situations • Cannot know all available data, or all possible consequences • High levels of complexity and ambiguity • Confusion due to inaccurate, distorted data that skews our thinking • Limited cognitive ability to ‘know it all’- Bounded rationality • Satisficing- can consider options- need to accept (without knowing

everything)

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Rational decision making – what’s the challenge?

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Intuition combines knowing and feeling

• Knowing: expertise gained through sense-making • Feeling: sensitivity, engages the emotions, links mind and body

sensations

Intuition compares favorably with logic Managers make use of their intuition in: • Sensing problems • Reading patterns of data • Working with pictures, images in information processing • Forming decisions tacitly - ‘just know’

• ACTIVITY: - Consider personal preferences (rational v intuitive); personality (Strengthsfinder/MBTI/DISC/BIG 5/ other; types of decisions- daily- big.

- Read; view video links; Individually reflect;

- Discuss with your team classmates. Consider cognitive bias, blind spots

- Make notes for Assessment 1

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Challenges to decision-making

Intuition • Cognitive bias • Blind spots • Distrust in business on

emotion

Rationality • Limits to known data, risks • Limited cognitive ability • Pressures of time • Complexity, information

overload Balanced decision-making

• Considers ethics; morality; legal elements • Whose values?

• Requires slower process – considers precedents, options

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Exploring advertisements: how do advertisers try to influence us?

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Take a look at any full page colour travel advertisement for cruises in any weekend newspaper, eg, the Weekend Australian . Are they hoping you have a blind spot and will make a purchase decision? Do you suffer from FOMO? How do you respond when you read: “luxury”; “$X,999”; “starting from $x…”; “Free flight”; “book now”; “x places only”; “offer ends ddmmyyyy”; “on-board credits”… Can you detect the bias?

EXPECTATIONS: Turn up, tune it, commit – learn with, and from, each other PLAY: participate, listen, act, ask ‘why?’

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• What are heuristics? • What is bias? See Mike Pinder’s poster on types of cognitive bias from • https://www.boardofinnovation.com/blog/16-cognitive-biases-that-kill-

innovative-thinking/ • You may want to access some of the references listed at the end of this article. • System 1 and System 2 thinking; fast and slow thinking (Daniel Kahneman) • What are blind spots? What blind spots might you have? Discuss in your

team.

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PREVIEW WEEK 3: GO TO MODULE 4 BIAS

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