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Media Influences on Social Outcomes: The Impact of MTV’s “16 and Pregnant” on Teen Childbearing Melissa S. Kearney and Phillip B. Levine Wednesday, January 15, 2014

his paper explores how specific media images affect adolescent attitudes and

outcomes. The specific context examined is the widely viewed MTV franchise,

16 and Pregnant, a series of reality TV shows including the Teen Mom sequels,

which follow the lives of pregnant teenagers during the end of their pregnancy and

early days of motherhood.

Download the paper at the National Bureau of Economic Research’s website

 

We investigate whether the show influenced teens’ interest in contraceptive use or

abortion, and whether it ultimately altered teen childbearing outcomes. We use data

from Google Trends and Twitter to document changes in searches and tweets resulting

from the show, Nielsen ratings data to capture geographic variation in viewership, and

Vital Statistics birth data to measure changes in teen birth rates. We find that 16 and

Pregnant led to more searches and tweets regarding birth control and abortion, and

ultimately led to a 5.7 percent reduction in teen births in the 18 months following its

introduction. This accounts for around one-third of the overall decline in teen births in

the United States during that period.

 

Introduction

 

5/30/2020 Media Influences on Social Outcomes: The Impact of MTV’s “16 and Pregnant” on Teen Childbearing

https://www.brookings.edu/research/media-influences-on-social-outcomes-the-impact-of-mtvs-16-and-pregnant-on-teen-childbearing/ 2/6

It is a longstanding and open question how exposure to media images affects the

behavior of viewers. Policy advocates and cultural observers worry, in particular, about

the impact of exposure to sexual and violent content on the behaviors of adolescents.

In some circles, the idea that teenagers respond to media content is a foregone

conclusion, but determining whether the media images themselves cause the behavior

is a very difficult empirical task[1]. The purpose of this paper is to examine the impact

of the widely viewed MTV show, 16 and Pregnant, on teenage attitudes and outcomes.

This show purports to show the difficult reality of becoming a teen mother. As we

document below, 16 and Pregnant has drawn large audiences among relevant

subpopulations. One clear indication of the show’s success is the spinoffs it has

generated: Teen Mom, Teen Mom 2, and Teen Mom 3. Could exposure to these media

images of pregnant teens and very young new moms have had an impact on how teens

think about pregnancy and ultimately on whether they become teen mothers

themselves? If so, this would have important implications for thinking about how to

effectively communicate with teens and influence their behaviors.

 

The context of teen childbearing in the United States makes this question an important

one to study. In 2012, 29.4 out of every 1,000 girls between the ages of 15 and 19 (2.94

percent) gave birth in the United States. This rate is considerably higher than that in

any other developed country, where typical rates of teen childbearing are more often in

the range of 5 to 10 births per 1,000 girls in this age group (Kearney and Levine, 2012a).

Though still an outlier internationally, the U.S. teen birth rate has declined dramatically

over the past 20 years, falling from 61.8 births  per 1,000 teen girls in 1991. This decline

has occurred in two distinct waves. Between 1991 and 2008, it fell largely continuously

from 61.8 to 40.2, representing an annual average rate of decline of 2.5 percent per

year. Teen birth rates fell far more rapidly in the next four years, dropping from 40.2 to

29.4, or 7.5 percent per year.

 

The timing of the introduction of MTV’s 16 and Pregnant is such that it might

conceivably have contributed in some measure to the most recent, very sharp decline.

Ever since its introduction, various observers have made conflicting claims about the

show’s influence on teens. Some have highlighted the show’s focus on the difficulties of

5/30/2020 Media Influences on Social Outcomes: The Impact of MTV’s “16 and Pregnant” on Teen Childbearing

https://www.brookings.edu/research/media-influences-on-social-outcomes-the-impact-of-mtvs-16-and-pregnant-on-teen-childbearing/ 3/6

raising a child at such a young age and have concluded from this coincident timing that

the show is at least partially responsible for the recent decrease in teen childbearing

rates[2]. Others argue that the show glamorizes teen pregnancy, with its cast members

essentially becoming media “stars,” whose lives are followed in the tabloids well after

their show airs[3].

 

In this paper, we take advantage of data from a number of sources to investigate the

impact of the MTV show. Specifically, we investigate the following three questions: (1)

Was exposure to the show substantial? (2) Did exposure to the show influence teens’

interest in birth control or abortion[4]? (3) Did teen childbearing outcomes change as a

result of the show’s introduction? We use several measures of exposure, including

Nielsen ratings data and the frequency with which individuals search for the show on

Google and tweet about it on Twitter. We measure the influence on teens’ decision

making process with data on the frequency with which teens include terms like birth

control or abortion in their searches/tweets[5]. Finally, we examine the impact on teen

birth rates using Vital Statistics Natality microdata.

 

We use multiple empirical approaches to answer these questions. First, we present a

descriptive analysis using several of our data sources to measure exposure. Nielsen

ratings data is a direct indicator, but we can also examine high frequency data (daily or

weekly) available from Google Trends and Twitter to look for time series spikes in

searches and tweets on the show’s title on the day/week that a new episode is released.

Second, we conduct a similar analysis using high frequency data from these sources to

look for increases in searches and tweets on terms like “birth control” when spikes

appear in searches/tweets on the show’s title. Third, we take advantage of geographic

variation in the data, examining whether locations with relatively higher levels of

searches/tweets about 16 and Pregnant during the period when the show is on the air

also experience relatively higher levels of searches/tweets about things like birth

control.

 

5/30/2020 Media Influences on Social Outcomes: The Impact of MTV’s “16 and Pregnant” on Teen Childbearing

https://www.brookings.edu/research/media-influences-on-social-outcomes-the-impact-of-mtvs-16-and-pregnant-on-teen-childbearing/ 4/6

Fourth, we exploit geographic variation in measures of the show’s viewership (as

captured by ratings) to investigate whether differential exposure to the show led to

differential changes in teen birth rates. We correct for the fact that interest in a show

about teen pregnancy is likely to be higher in locations where the teen birth rate is

high. Geographic fixed effects hold constant time invariant factors. Greater interest

may also occur in those areas where teen childbearing is rising (or falling more slowly).

To correct for this, we implement an instrumental variables (IV) strategy, predicting 16

and Pregnant ratings with a broad measure of MTV ratings from a previous period. The

identifying assumption of the IV approach is MTV ratings in the period before the show

aired would be unrelated to subsequent trends in teen childbearing.

 

The results of our analysis indicate that exposure to 16 and Pregnant was high and that

it had an influence on teens’ thinking regarding birth control and abortion. Large spikes

in search activity and tweets about the show are evident exactly at the time a new

episode was released. We also see an associated spike in Google searches and twitter

messages containing the terms “birth control” and “abortion.” Locations in which the

show was more popular experienced greater increases in searches/tweets like this when

the show was on the air.

 

Our most important finding is that the introduction of 16 and Pregnant along with its

partner shows, Teen Mom and Teen Mom 2, led teens to noticeably reduce the rate at

which they give birth[6]. Our estimates imply that these shows led to a 5.7 percent

reduction in teen births that would have been conceived between June 2009, when the

show began, and the end of 2010. This can explain around one-third of the total decline

in teen births over that period. Data limitations preclude us from conducting separate

analyses of pregnancies and abortions, but we note that teen abortion rates also fell

over this period (Pazol, et al., 2013). This suggests that the shows’ impact is attributable

to a reduction in pregnancy rather than greater use of abortion.

 

5/30/2020 Media Influences on Social Outcomes: The Impact of MTV’s “16 and Pregnant” on Teen Childbearing

https://www.brookings.edu/research/media-influences-on-social-outcomes-the-impact-of-mtvs-16-and-pregnant-on-teen-childbearing/ 5/6

[1] In terms of sexual behavior, evidence is cited showing that teens who watch sexual

content on television are more likely to experience a teenage pregnancy. For example,

popular press pieces by Stein (2008) and Tanner (2008) cite evidence from Chandra, et

al. (2008). But evidence like this does not isolate the effect of the exposure from the

choice of a particular type of individual to watch such content.

 

[2] For example, see http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/Society/2010/1221/A-force-

behind-the-lower-teen-birthrate-MTV-s-16-and-Pregnant and

http://blog.thenationalcampaign.org/pregnant_pause/2011/11/us-teen-birth-rate-

drops-a-dra.php.

 

[3] http://www.cnn.com/2011/OPINION/05/04/henson.teen.mom.show/index.html?

_s=PM:OPINION, accessed 6/18/2013.

 

[4] Ideally, we would also conduct a full analysis of the impact of the show on sexual

activity and contraceptive use as behavioral outcomes. We attempted to use data from

the Youth Risky Behavior Surveillance (YRBS) system – years 2007, 2009, and 2011, to

do that. These data are collected biannually in odd numbered years since 1991 for high

school students who respond to the survey at school. A major disadvantage of using

these data for this purpose, though, is that the sample sizes of youth in each geographic

area can be quite small. In many states in which data are available, surveys were only

completed by perhaps a thousand students regarding sexual activity and then perhaps a

few hundred of them regarding use of contraception among those sexually active.

Sample sizes at this level per state resulted in weak statistical power, leading us to omit

a discussion of our analysis in this paper.

 

[5] Identifying relevant terms included in searches or tweets is critical in this process.

We explored other terms attempting to identify interest in sexual activity and adoption,

but were unable to convince ourselves that they were sufficiently narrowly focused on

the same concept we wanted to explore. For instance, searches for “how adopt” were

5/30/2020 Media Influences on Social Outcomes: The Impact of MTV’s “16 and Pregnant” on Teen Childbearing

https://www.brookings.edu/research/media-influences-on-social-outcomes-the-impact-of-mtvs-16-and-pregnant-on-teen-childbearing/ 6/6

dominated over our time period by the 2010 earthquake in Haiti and tweets including

the term “adopt” or “adoption” were frequently not about children. In terms of sexual

activity, we considered searches for terms like “does sex hurt” or “sex first time,” as

ones that may represent the reflective consideration about having sex that we want to

test. We did not find a relationship between media exposure and these search terms.

 

[6] Teen Mom 3 was not on the air yet during our sample period.