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MediaCircus2016Election1.pptxMedia Circus: News Coverage of 2016 Election
Coverage of Trump vs. Coverage of His Closest Rival
Note: Pre-primary is from June 16 (date of Trump’s candidacy announcement)-December 31, 2015. In that period, Rubio was the second-most-heavily covered Republican. Thereafter, Cruz was the second-most-heavily covered Republican candidate. Clinton was the closest rival for last month of primaries and the periods that followed.
percentage of news coverage
Trump71%
57%
67%
58%
54%
57%
56%
Pre-primary IA,NH,SC,NV Super Tuesday + Mid-primaries Last month primaries Conventions General elec. 71.0 57.0 67.0 58.0 54.0 57.0 56.0 Closest rival
29%
43%
33%
42%
46%
43%
44%
Pre-primary IA,NH,SC,NV Super Tuesday + Mid-primaries Last month primaries Conventions General elec. 29.0 43.0 33.0 42.0 46.0 43.0 44.0
Coverage of Trump vs. Coverage of His Closest Rival
Note: Pre-primary is from June 16 (date of Trump’s candidacy announcement)-December 31, 2015. In that period, Rubio was the second-most-heavily covered Republican. Thereafter, Cruz was the second-most-heavily covered Republican candidate. Clinton was the closest rival for last month of primaries and the periods that followed.
percentage of news coverage
Trump71%
57%
67%
58%
54%
57%
56%
Pre-primary IA,NH,SC,NV Super Tuesday + Mid-primaries Last month primaries Conventions General elec. 71.0 57.0 67.0 58.0 54.0 57.0 56.0 Closest rival
29%
43%
33%
42%
46%
43%
44%
Pre-primary IA,NH,SC,NV Super Tuesday + Mid-primaries Last month primaries Conventions General elec. 29.0 43.0 33.0 42.0 46.0 43.0 44.0
Coverage of Trump vs. Coverage of His Closest Rival
Note: Pre-primary is from June 16 (date of Trump’s candidacy announcement)-December 31, 2015. In that period, Rubio was the second-most-heavily covered Republican. Thereafter, Cruz was the second-most-heavily covered Republican candidate. Clinton was the closest rival for last month of primaries and the periods that followed.
percentage of news coverage
Trump71%
57%
67%
58%
54%
57%
56%
Pre-primary IA,NH,SC,NV Super Tuesday + Mid-primaries Last month primaries Conventions General elec. 71.0 57.0 67.0 58.0 54.0 57.0 56.0 Closest rival
29%
43%
33%
42%
46%
43%
44%
Pre-primary IA,NH,SC,NV Super Tuesday + Mid-primaries Last month primaries Conventions General elec. 29.0 43.0 33.0 42.0 46.0 43.0 44.0
“[Trump’s candidacy] may not be good for America, but it's damn good for CBS.”
Les Moonves, Head of CBS
Media as Trump’s Megaphone: The Case of CNN
Source: Compiled by author from UCLA’s television archive database, February 2017.
6
number of times mentioned on CNN
number of mentions on CNN822
"Lying Ted" "Little Marco" 822.0 415.0
Tone of Trump’s Coverage during the Nominating Phase
Source: Media Tenor.
tone of news coverage (percentage positive vs. negative)
negativePre-primary Primaries 33.0 43.0 positive
Pre-primary Primaries 67.0 57.0
Trump Only Republican with Positive Coverage (Iowa caucuses thru Indiana primary)
Source: Media Tenor.
tone of news coverage (percentage positive vs. negative)
negative Trump Cruz Kasich Rubio 43.0 54.0 62.0 63.0 positive Trump Cruz Kasich Rubio 57.0 46.0 38.0 37.0
Sources of Trump’s Nominating Period Coverage
Tone of Coverage
Amount of Coverage
Source: Media Tenor
negative Horserace Substance 27.0 83.0 positive Horserace Substance 73.0 17.0
Column1
horserace substance 81.0 19.0
Tone of Clinton’s Coverage during the Nominating Phase
Source: Media Tenor. Excludes neutral statements.
tone of news coverage (percentage positive vs. negative)
negativePre-primary Primaries 69.0 54.0 positive
Pre-primary Primaries 31.0 46.0
Sources of Clinton’s Nominating Period Coverage
Tone of Coverage
Amount of Coverage
Source: Media Tenor
negative Horserace Email/Scandal Substance 73.0 92.0 54.0 positive Horserace Email/Scandal Substance 27.0 8.0 46.0
Column1
horserace email/scandal substance 75.0 17.0 8.0
Tone of Clinton’s Coverage during the General Election Phase
Source: Media Tenor
tone of news coverage (percentage positive vs. negative)
positiveGeneral Election 36.0 negative
General Election 64.0
Sources of Clinton’s General Election Coverage
Tone of Coverage
Amount of Coverage
Source: Media Tenor
negative Horserace Email/Scandal Substance 38.0 91.0 78.0 positive Horserace Email/Scandal Substance 62.0 9.0 22.0
Column1
horserace email/scandal substance 57.0 25.0 18.0
When the News Was about Clinton, Which Candidate Spoke?
Source: Media Tenor
Percentage of news reports
Trump
spoke 64%
Clinton
spoke 36%
Trump spoke Clinton spoke 64.0 36.0
Media as Trump’s Megaphone: The Case of CNN
Source: Compiled by author from UCLA’s television archive database, February 2017.
number of times mentioned on CNN
number of mentions on CNN2,998
"Crooked Hillary" + "Lock Her Up" "Crooked Hillary" "Lock her up" 2998.0 1734.0 1264.0
Tone of Trump’s Coverage during the General Election Phase
Source: Media Tenor
tone of news coverage (percentage positive vs. negative)
positiveGeneral Election 23.0 negative
General Election 77.0
Sources of Trump’s General Election Coverage
Tone of Coverage
Amount of Coverage
Source: Media Tenor
negative Horserace Email/Scandal Substance 78.0 91.0 86.0 positive Horserace Email/Scandal Substance 22.0 9.0 14.0
Column1
horserace scandal substance 56.0 20.0 24.0
Stepping Back—NEGATIVE BIAS Tone of 2016 Coverage (All Candidates, Excluding Horserace)
tone of news coverage (percentage positive vs. negative)
Tone of coverage Positive Negative 21.0 79.0
As his coverage turns negative, Trump turns on the news media
"This election is being rigged by the media pushing false and unsubstantiated charges, and outright lies in order to elect Crooked Hillary!“
Trump’s Negative Coverage & His Attacks on Media Peak with “Access Hollywood”
Source: Media Tenor. Excludes neutral reports. Date shown is the end date for that week’s coverage.
Negative 42645.0 42652.0 42659.0 42666.0 83.0 87.0 94.0 91.0 Positive 42645.0 42652.0 42659.0 42666.0 44.6 42.9 41.7 41.9
Comey Reopens Email Investigation
Source: Media Tenor. Excludes neutral reports. Date shown is the end date for that week’s coverage.
percentage of coverage negative in tone
Trump 42666.0 42673.0 42680.0 91.0 67.0 65.0 Clinton 42666.0 42673.0 42680.0 52.0 74.0 72.0
Comey’s Letter and the Polls
Trump 43036.0 43039.0 43042.0 42.2 44.8 45.3 Clinton 43036.0 43039.0 43042.0 47.8 48.0 46.6
Stepping Back—HORSERACE BIAS Coverage of Policy Issues
Source: Estimated from Tyndall Report. Evening newscasts of ABC, CBS, and NBC.
number of minutes of issue coverage 2016 2008 1988-2012 (avg.) 43.0 220.0 156.0
Stepping Back—NEGATIVE BIAS Tone of 2016 Coverage (All Candidates, Excluding Horserace)
Source: Media Tenor
tone of news coverage (percentage positive vs. negative)
Tone of coverage Positive Negative 21.0 79.0
NEGATIVE BIAS— Tone of Presidential Nominees’ Coverage, 1960-2016
Sources: Patterson, Out of Order, 1960-92; Center for Media & Public Affairs, 1996; Pew Research Center, 2000-2012; Media Tenor, 2016. Neutral stories are excluded. Percentages are the average each election for the two major-party nominees.
Negative
Positive
Negative 1960.0 1964.0 1968.0 1972.0 1976.0 1980.0 1984.0 1988.0 1992.0 1996.0 2000.0 2004.0 2008.0 2012.0 2016.0 24.0 39.0 34.0 43.0 37.0 57.0 46.0 61.0 60.0 57.0 75.0 59.0 64.0 67.0 71.0 Positive 1960.0 1964.0 1968.0 1972.0 1976.0 1980.0 1984.0 1988.0 1992.0 1996.0 2000.0 2004.0 2008.0 2012.0 2016.0 76.0 61.0 66.0 57.0 63.0 43.0 54.0 39.0 40.0 43.0 25.0 41.0 36.0 33.0 29.0
Negative Bias Immigration in the News
Source: Media Tenor. Based on NBC and CBS evening newscasts. Reports that are neutral in tone excluded.
26
tone of news coverage (percentage positive vs. negative)
Positive2010.0 2011.0 2012.0 2013.0 2014.0 2015.0 2016.0 15.0 12.0 22.0 14.0 16.0 11.0 22.0 Negative
2010.0 2011.0 2012.0 2013.0 2014.0 2015.0 2016.0 85.0 88.0 78.0 86.0 84.0 89.0 78.0
Negative Bias— Muslims in the News
Source: Media Tenor. Based on NBC and CBS evening newscasts. Reports that are neutral in tone excluded.
tone of news coverage (percentage positive vs. negative)
Positive2010.0 2011.0 2012.0 2013.0 2014.0 2015.0 2016.0 7.0 16.0 6.0 2.0 33.0 3.0 27.0 Negative
2010.0 2011.0 2012.0 2013.0 2014.0 2015.0 2016.0 93.0 84.0 94.0 98.0 67.0 97.0 73.0
Rise of Fake News— Facebook Engagement with Election Stories
Source: Facebook data via Buzzsumo
Number of shares, reactions & comments (in millions)
Mainstream news Feb-Apr May-July Aug-Nov 12.1 9.1 7.3 Fake News Feb-Apr May-July Aug-Nov 2.8 2.9 8.700000000000001
Why Fake News Matters— We Use Heuristics, “Familiarity”
Accurate Claim
False Claim
Source: Gordon Pennycook, presentation at Fake News Conference, Harvard, February 17, 2017.
percentage thinking claim is "accurate" unfamiliar familiar 49.0 90.0
percentage thinking claim is "accurate" unfamiliar familiar 26.0 59.0
A Fight the Press Can’t Win
Donald J. Trump ✔ @realDonaldTrump
The FAKE NEWS media (failing @nytimes, @NBCNews, @ABC, @CBS, @CNN) is not my enemy, it is the enemy of the American People!
A Fight the Press Can’t Win
Source: Fox News Poll, February, 2017
"Who do you trust more to tell the public the truth?“ (percentage of respondents)
"Who do you trust more to tell the public the truth?" "Trump Administration" "reporters who cover Administration" Neither 45.0 42.0 10.0
And yet there is one game the news media are winning—their focus on Trump has boosted their ratings & revenue
Source: mediaQuant. Data are for January, 2017
Amount it would cost to buy advertising space equivalent to the amount of news coverage received (in millions)
ad buy equivalent in coverage (in millions) The next 1,000 (excluding Obama) Trump 721.0 817.0
