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MBA580SalesForecast2.xlsx

Sales Growth of Whole Market

Year 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Your Company 187.1 192.9001 198.8800031 205.0452831961 211.4016869752 217.9551392714 224.7117485888 231.6778127951 238.8598249917 246.2644795665 253.898678433
BMW 126.1 130.7657 135.6040309 140.6213800433 145.8243711049 151.2198728358 156.8150081307 162.6171634315 168.6339984785 174.8734564222 181.3437743098
Toyota 275.4 286.1406 297.3000834 308.8947866526 320.9416833321 333.458408982 346.4632869323 359.9753551227 374.0143939724 388.6009553374 403.7563925955
VW 282.9 295.0647 307.7524821 320.9858388303 334.7882299 349.1841237857 364.1990411085 379.8595998762 396.1935626708 413.2298858657 430.9987709579

Sales Growth of the Whole Market

Your Company 187.1 192.90009999999998 198.88000309999995 205.04528319609994 211.40168697517902 217.95513927140956 224.71174858882324 231.67781279507673 238.85982499172408 246.26447956646751 253.89867843302798 BMW 126.1 130.76569999999998 135.60403089999997 140.62138004329995 145.82437110490204 151.21987283578341 156.81500813070738 162.61716343154353 168.63399847851062 174.8734564222155 181.34377430983747 Toyota 275.39999999999998 286.14059999999995 297.30008339999995 308.89478665259992 320.9416833320513 333.45840898200129 346.4632869322993 359.97535512265893 374.01439397244258 388.60095533736779 403.75639259552509 VW 282.89999999999998 295.06469999999996 307.75248209999995 320.98583883029994 334.78822990000282 349.18412378570292 364.19904110848813 379.85959987615308 396.19356267082765 413.22988586567322 430.99877095789714

Sales Growth Connected Veh. Mar

Year 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Your Company 3.8 4.1876 4.6147352 5.0854381904 5.6041528858 6.1757764802 6.8057056812 7.4998876606 8.264876202 9.1078935746 10.0368987192
BMW 1.6 2.008 2.52004 3.1626502 3.969126001 4.9812531313 6.2514726797 7.8455982131 9.8462257574 12.3570133255 15.5080517235
Toyota 4.8 5.9904 7.4760192 9.3300719616 11.6439298081 14.5316244005 18.1354672518 22.6330631302 28.2460627865 35.2510863576 43.9933557743
VW 8.4 10.3488 12.7497216 15.7076570112 19.3518334378 23.8414587954 29.3726772359 36.1871383546 44.5825544529 54.925707086 67.6684711299

Sales Growth Connected Vehicle Market

Your Company 3.8 4.1875999999999998 4.6147352000000001 5.0854381904000006 5.6041528858208007 6.1757764801745232 6.8057056811523253 7.499887660629863 8.2648762020141096 9.1078935746195491 10.036898719230743 BMW 1.6 2.008 2.5200399999999998 3.1626501999999994 3.9691260009999989 4.9812531312549986 6.2514726797250226 7.8455982130549025 9.8462257573839018 12.357013325516796 15.508051723523577 Toyota 4.8 5.9904000000000002 7.4760192000000005 9.3300719615999999 11.6439298080768 14.531624400479847 18.13546725179885 22.633063130244967 28.246062786545718 35.251086357609054 43.993355774296099 VW 8.4 10.348800000000001 12.749721600000001 15.7076570112 19.351833437798401 23.841458795367629 29.372677235892919 36.187138354620075 44.582554452891934 54.925707085962863 67.668471129906251

Option A for Innovation

Year 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Sales Traditional 183.3 190.8153 198.6387273 206.7829151193 215.2610146392 224.0867162394 233.2742716052 242.838516741 252.7948959274 263.1594866604 273.9490256135
Sales Connected 3.8 4.1876 4.6147352 5.768419 7.21052375 9.0131546875 11.2664433594 14.0830541992 17.603817749 22.0047721863 27.5059652328
Total Sales 187.1 195.0029 203.2534625 212.5513341193 222.4715383892 233.0998709269 244.5407149646 256.9215709402 270.3987136764 285.1642588467 301.4549908464
Gross Margin Traditional 27.495 28.622295 29.795809095 31.0174372679 32.2891521959 33.6130074359 34.9911407408 36.4257775112 37.9192343891 39.4739229991 41.092353842
Gross Margin Connected 0.798 0.879396 0.969094392 1.21136799 1.5142099875 1.8927624844 2.3659531055 2.9574413818 3.6968017273 4.6210021591 5.7762526989
Total Gross Margin 28.293 29.501691 30.764903487 32.2288052579 33.8033621834 35.5057699203 37.3570938463 39.383218893 41.6160361164 44.0949251582 46.8686065409
R&D and Capital Costs 4.1 4.133 1.16699 1.2019997 1.238059691 1.2752014817 1.3134575262 1.352861252 1.3934470895 1.4352505022 1.4783080173
Notes: Your company grows connected cars at 10.2%/year for 2 years, then grows connected cars at 25%/year.
Your company grows traditional cars at industry growth rate of 4.1 %/year.
Margin for connected cars: 21%.
Margin for traditional cars: 15%.
Numbers shown in billions.
There are two additional R&D costs for this option in year 0 and year 1.

Option B for Innovation

Year 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Sales Traditional 183.3 190.8153 198.6387273 206.7829151193 215.2610146392 224.0867162394 233.2742716052 242.838516741 252.7948959274 263.1594866604 273.9490256135
Sales Connected 3.8 4.1876 4.6147352 5.0854381904 5.6041528858 6.1757764802 6.8057056812 7.4998876606 8.264876202 9.1078935746 10.0368987192
Total Sales 187.1 195.0029 203.2534625 211.8683533097 220.865167525 230.2624927196 240.0799772864 250.3384044017 261.0597721294 272.2673802351 283.9859243327
Gross Margin Traditional 27.495 28.622295 29.795809095 31.0174372679 32.2891521959 33.6130074359 34.9911407408 36.4257775112 37.9192343891 39.4739229991 41.092353842
Gross Margin Connected 0.798 0.879396 0.969094392 1.06794202 1.176872106 1.2969130608 1.429198193 1.5749764087 1.7356240024 1.9126576507 2.107748731
Total Gross Margin 28.293 29.501691 30.764903487 32.0853792879 33.4660243019 34.9099204967 36.4203389338 38.0007539199 39.6548583915 41.3865806497 43.2001025731
R&D and Capital Costs 1.1 1.133 1.16699 1.2019997 1.238059691 1.2752014817 1.3134575262 1.352861252 1.3934470895 1.4352505022 1.4783080173
Notes: Your company grows connected cars at 10.2%/year.
Your company grows traditional cars at industry growth rate of 4.1 %/year.
Margin for connected cars: 21%.
Margin for traditional cars: 15%.
R&D and Capital Costs grow at a rate of 3%.

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