Probability

Name: weeks 1-3

Probability Island

You will create a population for an island community and collect the data by using and evaluating probability models. From these models, you will predict population growth and create graphs.

Your ship is carrying 150 passengers – 75 adult females and 75 adult males – all in good health. An intense storm occurs and your ship hits rocks and wrecks off the coast of a deserted island in the Pacific Ocean. This island has the necessary natural resources for human survival.

The ages of your passengers are recorded in the table below.

Age	Female	Male
20-29	10	10
30-39	10	10
40-49	10	10
50-59	15	15
60-69	15	15
70+	15	15
Total	75	75

Directions: Probability of births

For each women aged 20-39, roll a die one time. If you get a 6, the woman has a baby. Flip a coin. If it’s heads, it’s a girl. If it’s tails, it’s a boy. Complete the chart on the next page to track the births per year and the number of boys and girls. Repeat this simulation for ten years. Note: There are 20 women in these age groups. They are numbered 1 through 20 in the chart.

Questions:

1. Compare the theoretical probability to the experimental probability. Discuss the similarities and differences.

Woman	Year 1	Year 2	Year 3	Year 4	Year 5	Year 6	Year 7	Year 8	Year 9	Year 10
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20

2. Assuming the births occur as recorded above, and that no one dies, what is the population of your island at the end of the ten-year period? Provide a chart that clearly shows the population of your island at the end of each year.