Decision making
bensheer
MANG6312-Week9-DMMethods1-Bb-29Apr22.pdf
Week 9
“Decision Making
Methods 1”
Dr Ramesh Vahidi [email protected]
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Southampton Business School
27th & 29th Jul 21
Aims of Week 9
• A review of more common DM methods applicable in
PM for option/alternative and idea generation,
problem identification, formulation, prioritisation,
decision analysis and making, etc.
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“Idea/Option
Generation/Selection”
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Southampton Business School
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Form: Face to face (or virtual these days!) Process: Discussion until agreement Potential Problem: “We discussed and I decided”.
Form: Face to face (or virtual these days!) Process: Selection of a representative, abide by his/her decision Potential Problem: Lack of long term commitment Success criteria: Selection of the most qualified rep.
Consensus
Dictatorship
Techniques (non-structured) for Problem Identification/Resolution/Alternative Generation (1)
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Techniques (semi-/structured) for Problem Identification/Resolution/Alternative Generation (2)
Brainstorming
Delphi
• What are the rules and conditions of a successful brainstorming session?
• Where could this method be most useful in project lifecycle?
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Your Knowledge of Brainstorming
Techniques (structured) for Problem Identification/Resolution/Alternative Generation (2)
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Brainstorming Quantity matters
No criticism or early judgment
Unusual ideas welcome!
Combine/ modify ideas
Could be facilitated & documented
Brainstorming: Some Variations
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Nominal Group Technique Brainstorming with Roles
- Individual idea generation - Anonymous - Facilitator/moderator - Members equal - Group prioritise ideas - More than one round
Group Passing Technique - Individuals put one idea on the paper - Round table - Circulating and adding to the ideas - Vote
- Inclusive, collaborative - Start with well-defined topic - Aggregated individual ideas on a map - Voting for priority/Taking action
Team Idea Mapping Method More variations:
Goodwin & Wright (2014)
Sekhar & Lidiya (2012)
Virine and Trumper (2008)
• Brainstorming Rys
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VLXnhBXHcao
• Jonah Lehrer on Brainstorming (*some focus on criticism)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RgPIkx2JyQU
• Brainstorming and essay writing
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Cll6AEzXh8c
• (Really) Bad Brainstorm
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pLOGmow9q9I
• Think You've Already Been To The Worst Brainstorm Meeting Ever? Think Again
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OWT-A0w0AKY
• Brainstorming: We Are Doing It Wrong
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=09_JdhFA2W0
• How to run a more productive Brainstorming session by Dr Ken Hudson
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TlBrQjZTtks
• Brainstorming: Is Your Mind Wild Enough to Make a Conceptual Leap? | Bill Burnett
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WLF-0tDz3Ro
Some Brainstorming Videos
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Techniques (structured) for Problem Identification/Resolution/Alternative Generation (2)
Delphi Quantitative forecasts
No or limited direct interaction/anonymous
Iterative
Individuals’ (panellists)
judgment and feedback
Outcome: Quantified group ‘consensus’
Research: Normally more accurate than traditional groups
Should be facilitated
Delphi: Some Tips
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Revised Delphi Process
- Identification of stakeholders
- Individuals take stakeholders' roles
- Judge from the viewpoint of the stake.
- Share the stakes.’ views in the first
round.
- Remove the roles and continue.
More details:
Okoli & Pawlowski (2004)
Goodwin & Wright (2014)
Virine and Trumper (2008)
Heterogeneity vs. Homogeneity
- Helps reduce bias
- Choose panellists with different views
- Forecasts
- Prioritization
- Ranking
Example applications
• Delphi Technique
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bHwohMjG9OA
• What is DELPHI METHOD? What does DELPHI METHOD mean? DELPHI METHOD meaning, definition & explanation
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ap77w8FKYM
• Delphi Method 1
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FFfKOSTftcs
• Delphi Method 2 - Limitations, Examples, More Info
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uV9xFqblEy4
• Improving Your Ability to Deliver Projects: The Delphi Technique
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9YOpgW5_p-A
Some Delphi Videos
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“Problem Identification
/Formulation/Analysis”
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Southampton Business School
Problem Identification - Pareto Analysis
• A tool for problem diagnosis/analysis.
• Initially was called 80/20 Rule: ‘80 per cent of a company’s benefits come from 20% of its products’; ‘80% of problems are caused by 20% of causes’, etc.
• Over time, the 80/20 per cent has been removed, but the principle is still valid.
• Core Idea: Apply effort where it has the highest impact or return.
(Maylor, 2010)
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Steps of Pareto Analysis:
• Identify the categories of problems;
• Find out the frequency of their
occurrence;
• Draw a problem-frequency (per cent of
occurrence) histogram;
• Analyse the diagram: identify those
items that might have caused most of
the quality problems;
• Focus on resolving those problems.
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Problem Identification - Pareto Analysis
(Maylor, 2010)
• Aka: Ishikawa/Fishbone diagram;
• Simple though strong graphical technique;
• Structures the outcome of problem solving or a brainstorming.
• Develops over a few drafts.
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Problem Identification - Cause and Effect Diagrams
(Maylor, 2010)
Example: Cause and Effect Diagrams
Effect/Problem
A Cause
Category
A Cause
Breakdown
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Further Examples of a Cause &Effect Diagram
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1) Draw a Fishbone Diagram to identify the potential sources of problems of one of the projects we worked on before and you remember:
“Terminal 5”
2) Year in year on, we are facing the ‘email Traffic Jam’ and students missing the information sent via email/Blackboard, … . The School wants to define a project to resolve this issue but is looking for the root causes of the issue. Draw a Cause-Effect Diagram to help the School better understands the issue from your point of view.
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Exercise: Cause and Effect Diagrams
Decision/Problem Structuring Tool: Decision Tree
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• Structure a set of decision making situation with alternatives;
• Defines the relation between a main decision and:
- Sub decisions, or - Alternatives, or - Outcomes.
• Narrows down the potential forms decisions might take.
• Develops over a few drafts!
Decision Tree
*It is normally discussed in the risk context: Expected value of the branches = Sum of the subsequent expected values
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Further Examples of a Decision Tree
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- The T5 project team had to make the following decision when they started to realise they were running over time:
“Should we stick to the agreed opening date?” “What could we do?”
- As you saw, there are evidences that they cut the training and software tests to be able to launch the project on time.
- Assume: You, as the T5 team, already have some insights that cutting training and software tests might cause major issues.
- Draw a decision tree reflecting your team’s analysis of the decision. You need to identify a few options (whether good or bad) and use them in drawing the tree.
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Heathrow Terminal 5
Example: T5 Decision
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Agreed delayed opening
Decision Option Consequences/Outcomes
Lost credit due to delay
Example: T5 Decision
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Should we stick to the
agreed opening date?
Opinion/Possibility: Yes
Opinion/Possibility: No
Negotiate delay
Adjust the activities or time plans
Cut on training
Agreed delayed opening
Extend the project duration
Decision Option Consequences/Outcomes
Response: Yes
Lost credit due to delay
Response: No
Response: Yes
Response: Yes
Eliminate software test
Response: Yes
References
Goodwin, P. & Wright, G. (2014) Decision analysis for management judgement. 5th edn. West Essex: John Wiley & Sons. Chapter 13, pp.319-326.
Maylor (2010) Project Management. 4th edn. Harlow: Financial Times Prentice Hall.
Sekhar, S.C. & Lidiya, K. (2012) ”Brainstorming”. Management, 2(4), pp. 113-117.
Okoli, C. & Pawlowski, S.D. (2004) “The Delphi method as a research tool: an example, design considerations and applications”. Information & Management, 42(1), pp. 15-29.
Virine, L. & Trumper, M. (2008) Project decisions-The art and science. Vienna: Management Concepts Inc. (Ch. 6)
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