Decision Making and Analysis in Projects

Vignesh Sivadass

MANG6312-Week1-IntrototheModuleandDM-21-22-Classroom-Bb.pdf

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Week 1

“Introduction to the Module & Decision Making”

Dr Ramesh Vahidi [email protected]

Feb 2022

Southampton Business School

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Review the Highlights: What You have

Learned/Done So Far?

Extensive knowledge of different aspects of PM;

Several case studies and examples of projects;

Deep reflections/self-reflections on teamwork; investigation & analysis of a real project & development of a project plan.

Entre & Mang: Initiating a business …

Anything left that you do not know about PM?!!

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MANG6312- Week 1 - Intro - DM Fundamentals

https://vevox.app/#/m/195796728

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You should have seen the impact of decisions in projects!

1) Do you remember of any impactful decision in your projects/cases? What was it about?

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2) From which stage of their careers, project managers will start making decisions in their projects?

0 3 - 5 5 - 10 10-15 Over 15

Years

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Highly structured, Well defined, Clear instructions, and enough data, Known outcomes.

Non-structured, Complex to very complex, Ambiguous, Lack of instructions and key data, unknown outcomes.

Specification of Project Decisions

Semi-structured, Low to medium complexity, Some aspects (un)known, Limited/general instructions and data, some (un)known outcomes.

Mid-term, Some level of criticality/risks, Medium cost implications, Some level of uncertainty .

Long-term, High level of criticality/risks, High cost implications, High level of uncertainty .

A Potential PM Career Path vs. DM Responsibilities

Project manager assistant

Junior Project Manager

Senior Project Manager

Programme Manager/Manager of a project-based Org.

0 3 - 5 5 - 10 10-15 Over 15

Short term, Not critical/risky, Low cost implications, High level of certainty.

Impacts of Project

Decisions

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A Potential PM Career Path vs. DM Responsibilities: Why Learning DM from Now

– Continuity in career path (vs. clear borderlines) & Potential Overlaps

– Context (size of org. & the project, individual’s capabilities, …)

– Smooth & Rapid Transition

– Potential for Jumping one stage!

– Educated vs. Accidental PM

– Ready for learning!!

Facts & Realities Leaning DM Facilitates

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What do you like to learn in this module?

• Making the ‘best’ decisions

• Making the ‘right’ decision

• Making ‘rational’ decisions

• The ‘best/right methods‘ for making project

decisions

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What do you like to learn in this module?

• Making the ‘best’ decisions

• Making the ‘right’ decision

• Making ‘rational’ decisions

• The ‘best/right methods‘ for making project decisions

✓ Learn how to ‘try’ to make ‘better’ decisions.

✓ Learn ‘why’ we might make ‘bad’ decisions.

✓ Learn how to ‘identify’ and ‘avoid’ some of the ‘known

and common mistakes’ in decision making.

✓ Lean how to ‘improve’ your ‘decision making skills’.

✓ Prepare to climb the PM career ladder faster!

What can studying DM in PM offer then?!

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Aims of the Module

Provides you with some knowledge and skills of DM applicable in PM so that you:

• Be able to analyse and reflect on decisions and the way they were/are being made.

• Learn how you could proceed to become a better decision maker.

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Aspects of DM in Projects

• What people normally consider in DM?

• What should be considered?

• How decisions are/could be made?

• Which tools & Techniques?

• How to select them?

• Who should make a decision?

• Who should be involved in a decision?

• Suitable definitions and terminology

• The specific nature of decisions &

DM in PM Conceptual Aspect

Decision makers Aspect

Decision Elements

Aspect

Decision Methods & Processes Aspect

ContextContext

(Vahidi, 2014, pp.142-3)

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MANG6312Module Outline

Decision Elements Week 4

Ethics in Making Decisions: Week 6

Decision Methods/Approaches Week 9-12

Introductory Lectures Week 1-2

Decision Makers Week 3

What do the actual decision makers recommend?!

Week 8

- Learning/Teaching Together: … what do you think?

Week 5

Introduction to the Assignment Week 7

Potentially need extend session

Looking into bringing this forward

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Module Assessment

Individual coursework: 100%

Analysing a major decision (or a set of decisions) in a major project

You will select a failed or a controversial project

You will analysis its main controversial/problematic decision(s)

The project should not have been widely published on

Size: 3000 words

Deadline: 24th May (provisional)

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Week 1

”

Southampton Business School

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Aims of Week 1

“To provide you with: significance of decisions/DM

in PM, some of the fundamental concepts of

‘decisions’ and backgrounds to ‘decision making’.”

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195-796-728 Is decision making in projects a skill to learn or an art to

born with?

1) Purley Art - We Born with

2) More Art than Science

3) Equally Art & Science

4) More Science than Art

5) Purely Science - We Could Learn

6) I am not sure

7) I need to think more

Discussion Point 15MANG6312©RameshVahidi2022

Significance of DM in PM: In Literature

• Decision Making: “a fundamental skill of project management that can be improved by training.” (Virine and Trumper, 2008, xvi)

• “Project management is the art of making the right decisions.” (Virine and Trumper, 2008, p.xv)

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Significance of Decisions & DM: PM Practitioners’ Views

Interviews with several high level practitioners’ with 500 years of experience (Vahidi, 2014, pp.142-3):

DM is: “the building block of project management” (World-known Consultant/practitioner - 50 yrs expr.)

“… decisions are absolutely key and central to the way the projects are made …” (World-known academic/consultant/practitioner - 50 yrs expr.)

“Absolutely vital and essential.” (World-known academic/practitioner - 48 yrs expr.)

“… a higher proportion of the Project Manager’s role is to make decisions rather than to do things or to make things or create things. It is to make those choices …” (PM from Roles-Royce – 25 yrs exp.)

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5. Could you name the project managers’ tasks

and responsibilities that do NOT need making a

decision?

One more reflection … MANG6312©RameshVahidi2022

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“Introduction to Decisions”

Some Fundamental Concepts

Southampton

Business School

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Some Academic Definitions of ‘Decision’

• Decision: “a conscious allocation of resources for the purpose

of achieving desirable objectives” (Virine and Trumper, 2008, p.303)

• A decision is a “specific commitment to action (usually a

commitment of resources)”. (Boddy, 2010, p.195)

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An Overall Classification of Managerial Decisions

Programmed Decisions

– The situation occurs regularly;

– Once pattern is recognised, we

lay down procedure with

specific actions and results;

– Dealt with at lower levels of

organisation.

Non-programmed Decisions

– Arrive in your ‘in-basket’ “messy”;

– Often unique situations, poorly

defined, and unstructured;

– Dealt with at higher levels of

organisation.

(Boddy, 2014)

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An Overall Classification of Managerial Decisions

Steve Jobs

Manager of

an Apple

Store

Regular order of

iPhones for sale in

an Apple store

New Market

New Product

Competitors’

policies

(Boddy, 2014, p…)

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Frame’s (2013) General

Classification of Decisions

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Find Categories in Personal Decisions

• What programmed and non-programmed decisions you have

recently made? What about the future?

• Give examples of unconscious and mindful decisions you have

recently made? What about the future?

Self-reflection in your own time

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Disciplines Related to Decision Making

(Frame, 2013)

• DM is a universal activity;

• It is a component of several disciplines;

• Some of these disciplines have their own particular spin on it.

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DM Related Disciplines

• Does it make a difference to know the DM disciplines?

Rumi uses this story as an example of the limits of

individual perception:

"If each had a candle and they went in together

the differences would disappear.” (Rumi, 1207-

1273)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PxMPt0LBHOo

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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PxMPt0LBHOo

DM Related Disciplines - Decision Sciences & Economics

Decision Science

Economics

Public Policy

Psychology

Social Psychology

Philosophy

Law: Adjudication

Neuroscience

Decision sciences

Focus: quantitative tools

Based on: mathematics and statistics

Detached from: behavioural sciences

Decision makers: rational, perfect,

fully-informed

Economics Study of: the allocation of resources

under conditions of scarcity

Focus: math and statistical models to

describe economic activities

Dealing with complexities and

sophistication: ever-expanding list of

assumptions

DM Disciplines

(Frame, 2013)

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Examples of Models for Resolving Project Tradeoffs in Decision Sciences

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Decision Science

Economics

Public Policy

Psychology

Social Psychology

Philosophy

Law: Adjudication

Neuroscience

DM Related Disciplines – Public Policy

Public policy

Principal concern: for government to

make and implement decisions that serve

the public good.

Biggest challenge: determining what the

‘public good’ is.

Significant pitfalls: The most obvious is

that these decisions are made by

politicians who find it difficult to ignore

serving the special interests of their

constituents.

DM Disciplines

(Frame, 2013)

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Decision Science

Economic s

Public Policy

Psychology

Social Psycholog

Philosophy

DM Disciplines

Law: Adjudication

Neuroscienc e

Philosophy

- What is the ‘right decision or

judgement’?

- What is the ‘best/optimum outcome’

for a decision? (Does it exist at all?)

- What is the ‘right basis’ for a

judgements?

- Can we generalize our judgements?

Jargon: Epistemology, Ontology, Scientific

reasoning, Explanation. (research

methods is significant in PM!)

DM Related Disciplines – Philosophy

(Frame, 2013)

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Decision Science

Economics

Public Policy

Psychology

Social Psychology

Philosophy

DM Disciplines

Law: Adjudicati

Neuroscience

Psychology

Looks at: human mental processes and

behaviour. Its most related subdisciplines to DM:

- Perception (how humans collect data from

the world around them),

- Cognition (how humans process and

interpret the perceived data),

- Personality (how humans function in their

daily lives).

Social psychology

Links: psychology and sociology.

Examines: how we behave in a society and

the effects of social forces on individuals.

DM Related Disciplines - Psychology & Social Psychology

(Frame, 2013)

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DM Related Disciplines – Law: Adjudication

Decision Science

Economics

Public Policy

Psycholog y

Social Psychology

Philosophy

DM Disciplines

Law: Adjudication

Neuroscience

Law: Adjudication

Viewing the adjudication process from

a DM perspective highlights two

problems all decision-makers face:

- How to identify what constitutes the

best decision.

- The final decision - that is, the jury

or judge’s verdict - is sensitive to the

standards of guilt that are established.

(Frame, 2013)

DM Related Disciplines - Neuroscience

Decision Science

Economics

Public Policy

Psychology

Social Psychology

Philosophy

DM Disciplines

Law: Adjudication

Neuroscience

Focuses on: Impact of operation of the brain on all human actions, including decision making.

Recent studies:

Can we make the right decision if we have all the right information? (data travel in different paths in brain)

Will two of us make exactly the same decision if the information we have are exactly the same?

Can we say we are ‘certainly right or correct’ when we make a decision? (well, some believe they always can!!)

(Frame, 2013)

DM Related Disciplines

Examples of issues reflected in the developed models for DM (Frame, 2013, p.24):

• DM from the perspective of public policy → No reference to decision sciences or other disciplines.

• Decision scientists → vaguely aware or the social psychology and neuro-sciences.

So, when you read a book/paper on DM, see which discipline it belongs to. Don’t choose randomly!

DM Related Disciplines

• Which of those disciplines you think are more important or more related to PM?

Golden Rules of Good Outcomes!

✓ I wish ‘quality’ was random!

✓ Enough time + Early start + Good study plan = Satisfactory outcome

✓ Deep learning demands lots of study; in-depth study; and developing reflective; analytical and critical capabilities.

84%

16%

Want to be a good decision maker? Direct Contact Hours: Lectures &

Seminars

Private Study (126 hrs):

- Reading list; - Searching

library/online for extra papers, textbooks, etc.;

- Reflecting/thinking!; - Search for finding a

project for cw; - Teamwork; - Collaborating with

others - …

You are more than welcome

Background Reading and CW Preparation

✓ Carefully Select what you read

✓ Lecture slides: guideline for your further studies rather than reading material for rapid preparation just a few days to the submission

✓ First reading choices: lectures’ readings and references

✓ Second choices: further academic textbooks and papers from PM and then other Most Relevant journal

✓ Reflect when you read, ask if not clear

Background Reading and CW Preparation

✓ Read the module Handbook!

✓ Make a module folder and subfolders: copy and/or download related papers, chapters or pages of the sources if the copyright permits

✓ Take notes while you read: add clear source citation and page number for quotations to your notes to facilitate citation in your cw

✓ Library access/use issues: Let me and/or the Library know asap, put hold on books if they were not available

Feedback in this Module

‘Examples of Self-Assessment

Southampton

Business School

Learning Outcomes of Week 1

By actively attending the sessions and following up with further background studies

you are expected to be able to:

Identify and define the main aspects of decisions and decision making;

Distinguish ‘conscious from unconscious’ and ‘programmed from non-

programmed’ decisions in theory and in a project case;

Discuss the multi-disciplinary nature of decisions and decision making;

Appreciate how to study for this module and study accordingly!

• Have I actually attempted to access the reading/ref list for the Week 1

lectures?

• Have I contacted Ramesh/the Library if I could not access or if I did not know

how to access the resources ?

• Was I paying full attention during the lecture?

• Did I take note of the main points in the lecture for my future reference?

• Did I participate in the class activity/discussion?

• Have I reviewed the lecture slides and tried to remember the lecture?

• Have I read the suggested and essential readings for this lecture?

• Have I done the exercise in my own study time? (if applies)

• How many hours of my independent study time did I spend on this lecture?

Self-Assessment - 1 How well you are catching up with MANG6483!

Self-Assessment - 2 Achievement of Learning Outcomes

If most of your answers to previous slide were ‘yes’ or You would hopefully be able to more or less answer the following questions (or know where/how to find the answers) :

• Can you describe the links between the specifications and consequences of

project decisions and the position of project managers in their career path?

• Can you discuss significance of decisions and decision making in projects?

• Can you think of project managers’ activities which do not need decision

making?

• What are the distinctions between programmed and non-programmed

decisions?

• Can you think of programmed and non-programmed decisions in one of the

case studies you remember from the last Sem or your MANG6311 project

or one of your teamwork?

You would hopefully be able to more or less answer the following questions (or know where/how to find the answers) if most of your answers to previous slide were ‘yes’:

• Can you give examples of programmed/non-programmed decisions in the

project you analysed for MANG6311 cw & the project you did in MANG6310.

• Can you compare unconscious and mindful decisions?

• Can you give examples of unconscious/mindful decisions in the project you

analysed for MANG6311 and the project you did in MANG6310?

• Why is DM a multidisciplinary field? What is the implications of this on

studying DM?

• What disciplines is DM related to? For each discipline, describe which aspects

of DM it looks at?

Self-Assessment - 3 Achievement of Learning Outcomes

Finally, self-evaluation …

• How would I rate my study for this module so far on a scale of 1-5?!

• What feedback I could give myself?

• How could I use the feedback from my Sem1 in this module?

• What things I did very well?

• What are the things I could improve?

References/Readings

Readings Boddy, D. (2014) Management: an introduction. 5th ed. Imprint: Harlow : Financial Times Prentice Hall. [electronic resource via the Library]. (Chapter 7, section 7.3)

Frame, J. Davidson (2013) Framing Decisions : Decision-Making That Accounts for Irrationality, People and Constraints. John Wiley & Sons. Somerset, NJ, USA. (Chapter 2 up to page 38)

Maylor, H. (2010) Project management. 4th ed. [electronic resource]. Pearson education/Financial Times Prentice Hall.

References Combe, C. (2014) Introduction to Management. Oxford: Oxford University Press.

Vahidi, R. (2014) Conceptual Framework for Trade-Off Decisions in Projects. Unpublished PhD Thesis. Northumbria University.

Virine, L. & Trumper, M. (2008) Project decisions-The art and science. Vienna: Management Concepts Inc.