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Mandatory Assignment Resources/Data Mining for Education Decision Support - A Review.pdf
PAPER DATA MINING FOR EDUCATION DECISION SUPPORT: A REVIEW
Data Mining for Education Decision Support: A Review
http://dx.doi.org/10.3991/ijet.v9i6.3950
Suhirman1,2, Jasni Mohamad Zain1, and Tutut Herawan3 1University Technology of Yogyakarta, Yogyakarta, Indonesia
2Universiti Malaysia Pahang, Gambang, Kuantan Pahang, Malaysia 3University of Malaya, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia
Abstract—Management of higher education must continue to evaluate on an ongoing basis in order to improve the quality of institutions. This will be able to do the necessary evaluation of various data, information, and knowledge of both internal and external institutions. They plan to use more efficiently the collected data, develop tools so that to collect and direct management information, in order to support managerial decision making. The collected data could be utilized to evaluate quality, perform analyses and diagnoses, evaluate dependability to the standards and practices of curricula and syllabi, and suggest alternatives in decision processes. Data minings to support decision making are well suited methods to provide decision support in the education environments, by generating and presenting rele- vant information and knowledge towards quality improve- ment of education processes. In educational domain, this information is very useful since it can be used as a base for investigating and enhancing the current educational stand- ards and managements. In this paper, a review on data mining for academic decision support in education field is presented. The details of this paper will review on recent data mining in educational field and outlines future re- searches in educational data mining.
Index Terms—Data mining; Decision making; Education; Review.
I. INTRODUCTION Higher education institutions are overwhelmed with
huge amounts of information regarding student's enrollment, number of courses completed, achievement in each course, performance indicators and other data. This has led to an increasingly complex analysis process of the
growing volume of data and to the incapability to take decisions regarding curricula reform and restructuring. On the other side, educational data mining is a growing field aiming at discovering knowledge from student's data in order to thoroughly understand the learning process and take appropriate actions to improve the student's performance and the quality of the courses delivery [1].
The biggest challenge is how to predict college potential challenges and opportunities in the future, including the quality of inputs, processes and outputs. Anticipate the flow of information, the data that is in college to be optimized utilization. The significance of computer science for economics and society is undisputed. In particular, computer science is acknowledged to play a key role in schools (e.g., by opening multiple career paths) [2]. So that predictions can answer required. Prediction is very useful in management decision making colleges. One way to predict the future challenges this college is to analyze the data using data mining techniques. Data mining has been widely demonstrated success in predicting profits in the business world, but is rarely used to predict the gains in education. Results indicate a signif- icant relationship between students use of technology for academic purposes and self-reported educational gains as well as technological gains. These results add support to claims of the need for a more symbiotic relationship be- tween technology and pedagogy [3].
Data mining and knowledge discovery in databases are treated as synonyms, but data mining is actually a step in the process of knowledge discovery. The sequences of steps indentified in extracting knowledge from data are shown in Figure 1.
Figure 1. The steps of extracting knowledge from data [4]
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The main functionality of data mining techniques is ap- plying various methods and algorithms in order to discov- er and extract patterns of stored data. These interesting patterns are presented to the user and may be stored as new knowledge in knowledge base. Data mining and knowledge discovery applications have got a rich focus due to its significance in decision making [5]. Data mining (DM) and Decision Support Systems (DSS) are well suit- ed technologies to provide decision support in the higher education environments, by generating and presenting relevant information and knowledge towards quality im- provement of education processes and management [6].
The main objective of higher education institutions is to provide quality education. One way to achieve highest level of quality in higher education system is by discover- ing knowledge for prediction regarding enrolment of stu- dents in a particular course, alienation of traditional class- room teaching model, detection of unfair means used in examination, detection of abnormal values in the result sheets of the students, prediction about students’ perfor- mance and so on. The knowledge is hidden among the educational data set and it is extractable through data mining techniques. Data mining techniques in context of higher education by offering a data mining model for higher education system in the university [7]. In today's competitive situation, institution need to use discovery knowledge techniques to make better, more informed decisions. Its main advantage is that by simply indicating where the data file is, the service itself is able to perform all the process [8].
In this paper, a review on data mining for academic de- cision support in higher education is presented. The paper reviews on recent data mining in educational field and outlines future researches in educational data mining. The rest of this paper is organized as follow. Section 2 de- scribes educational data mining definition and its meth- ods. Section 3 reviews on existing recent works on educa- tional data mining. Finally, the conclusion of this work and future research direction are described in Section 4.
II. EDUCATIONAL DATA MINING
A. Definition Educational datamining (EDM) is an emerging inter-
disciplinary research area that deals with the development of methods to explore data originating in an educational context. EDM uses computational approaches to analyze educational data in order to study educational questions. This paper surveys the most relevant studies carried out in this field to date. First, it introduces EDM and describes the different groups of user, types of educational environ- ments, and the data they provide. It then goes on to list the most typical/common tasks in the educational environ- ment that have been resolved through data-mining tech- niques, and finally, some of the most promising future lines of research are discussed. The field of educational data mining is a ripe for explosive growth. Machine learn- ing and data mining have developed a vast array of tools and techniques that have been wellstudied and examined in myriad context.
Educational data mining can be applied to wide areas of research including elearning, intelligent tutoring systems, text mining, social network mining etc. In education, EDM can function as a replacement for less accurate but more established psychometric techniques. Educational
data mining is an interactive cycle of hypothesis for- mation, testing and refinements that alternates between two complementary types of activities. One type of activi- ty is qualitative analysis, focuses on understanding indi- vidual tutorial events. Other type involve, knowledge tracing analyses the growth curve by aggregating over successive opportunities to apply skills [5].
The emerging fields of academic analytics and educa- tional data mining are rapidly producing new possibilities for gathering, analyzing, and presenting student data. University might soon be able to use these new data sources as guides for course redesign and as evidence for implementing new assessments and lines of communica- tion between instructors and students. This essay links the concepts of academic analytics, data mining in higher education, and course management system audits and suggests how these techniques and the data they produce might be useful to those who practice the scholarship of teaching and learning [9].
The EDM process converts raw data coming from edu- cational systems into useful information that could poten- tially have a great impact on educational research and practice. This process does not differ much from other application areas of DM, like business, genetics, medicine, etc., because it follows the same steps as the general DM process [10]. Even so, there are some important issues that differentiate the application of DM, specifically to educa- tion, from howit is applied in other domains :
a) Objective: The objective of DM in each application area is different. For example, in EDM, there are both applied research objectives, such as improving the learning process and guiding students’ learning, as well as pure research objectives, such as achieving a deeper understanding of educational phenomena. These goals are sometimes difficult to quantify and require their own special set of measurement tech- niques.
b) Data: In educational environments, there are many different types of data available for mining. These data are specific to the educational area, and there- fore have intrinsic semantic information, relation- ships with other data, and multiple levels of mean- ingful hierarchy.
c) Techniques: Educational data and problems have some special characteristics that require the issue of- mining to be treated in a different way. Although most of the traditional DM techniques can be applied directly, others cannot and have to be adapted to the specific educational problem.
There are actually more groups involved with many more objectives, namely :
a) Learners/students b) Educators/lecturers c) Course/educational/researchers d) Organizations/learning/providers/universities/privat
training companies e) Administrators
Lecturers and academics section are in charge of plan- ning, designing, building and maintaining the educational systems. Students use and interact with them. Starting from all the available information about courses, students, usage and interaction, different data mining techniques
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can be applied in order to discover useful knowledge that helps to improve the learning process. The discovered knowledge can be used not only by providers (lecturers) but also by own users (students). So, the application of data mining in educational systems can be oriented to different actors with each particular point of view (figure 2). An existing learning management system is improved by using data mining techniques and increasing the effi- ciency of the courses using custom modules [11].
Figure 2. The cycle of applying data mining in educational systems
B. Methods Baradwaj and Pal [7] Categorize methods in education-
al data mining into the following general categories. Viewpoint is focused on applications of educational data mining to data. These methods are listed as web mining methods, and are quite prominent in mining web data and in mining other forms of educational data. These catego- ries of educational data mining methods are largely acknowledged to be universal across types of data mining.
1) Classification Classification is the most commonly applied data min-
ing technique, which employs a set of pre-classified ex- amples to develop a model that can classify the population of records at large. This approach frequently employs decision tree or neural network-based classification algo- rithms. The data classification process involves learning and classification. In Learning the training data are ana- lyzed by classification algorithm. In classification test data are used to estimate the accuracy of the classification rules. If the accuracy is acceptable the rules can be applied to the new data tuples. The classifier-training algorithm uses these pre-classified examples to determine the set of parameters required for proper discrimination. The algo- rithm then encodes these parameters into a model called a classifier.
2) Clustering Clustering can be said as identification of similar clas-
ses of objects. By using clustering techniques we can further identify dense and sparse regions in object space and can discover overall distribution pattern and correla- tions among data attributes. Classification approach can also be used for effective means of distinguishing groups or classes of object but it becomes costly so clustering can be used as preprocessing approach for attribute subset selection and classification.
3) Prediction Regression technique can be adapted for predication.
Regression analysis can be used to model the relationship between one or more independent variables and dependent
variables. In data mining independent variables are attrib- utes already known and response variables are what we want to predict. Unfortunately, many real-world problems are not simply prediction. Therefore, more complex tech- niques (e.g., logistic regression, decision trees, or neural nets) may be necessary to forecast future values. The same model types can often be used for both regression and classification. For example, the CART (Classification and Regression Trees) decision tree algorithm can be used to build both classification trees (to classify categorical re- sponse variables) and regression trees (to forecast contin- uous response variables). Neural networks too can create both classification and regression models.
4) Association rule Association and correlation is usually to find frequent
item set findings among large data sets. This type of find- ing helps businesses to make certain decisions, such as catalogue design, cross marketing and customer shopping behavior analysis. Association Rule algorithms need to be able to generate rules with confidence values less than one. However the number of possible Association Rules for a given dataset is generally very large and a high pro- portion of the rules are usually of little (if any) value.
Association Rules Mining is one of the popular tech- niques used in data mining. Positive association rules are very useful in correlation analysis and decision making processes. In educational context, determine a “right” program to the students is very unclear especially when their chosen programs are not selected. In this case, nor- mally they will be offered to other programs based on the programs! availability and not according to their pro- gram!s field interests. The main concern is, by assigning inappropriate program which is not reflected their overall interest; it may create serious problems such as poorly in academic commitment and academic achievement [12]. Least association rules are the association rules that con- sist of the least item. These rules are very important and critical since they can be used to detect the infrequent events and exceptional cases. However, the formulation of measurement to efficiently discover least association rules is quite intricate and not really straight forward [13].
Sequential rule mining is an important data mining task used in a wide range of applications. However, current algorithms for discovering sequential rules common to several sequences use very restrictive definitions of se- quential rules, which make them unable to recognize that similar rules can describe a same phenomena [14].
5) Neural networks Neural network is a set of connected input/output units
and each connection has a weight present with it. During the learning phase, network learns by adjusting weights so as to be able to predict the correct class labels of the input tuples. Neural networks have the remarkable ability to derive meaning from complicated or imprecise data and can be used to extract patterns and detect trends that are too complex to be noticed by either humans or other com- puter techniques. These are well suited for continuous valued inputs and outputs. Neural networks are best at identifying patterns or trends in data and well suited for prediction or forecasting needs.
6) Decision Trees Decision tree is tree-shaped structures that represent
sets of decisions. These decisions generate rules for the
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classification of a dataset. Specific decision tree methods include Classification and Regression Trees (CART) and Chi Square Automatic Interaction Detection (CHAID).
7) Nearest Neighbor Method A technique that classifies each record in a dataset
based on a combination of the classes of the k record(s) most similar to it in a historical dataset (where k is greater than or equal to 1). Sometimes called the k-nearest neigh- bor technique.
III. A REVIEW ON DATA MINING FOR ACADEMIC DECISION SUPPORT IN HIGHER EDUCATION
A. Providing Information for Supporting Educators The objective is to provide feedback to support teach-
ers/administrators in decision making (about how to im- prove students’ learning, organize instructional resources more efficiently, and enable them to take appropriate proactive action. It is important to point out that this task is different than data analyzing and visualizing tasks, which only provide basic information directly from data (reports, statistics, etc.). Moreover, providing feedback completely new and interesting information. Several DM techniques have been used in this task, although associa- tion-rule mining has been the most common. Association- rule mining reveals interesting relationships among varia- bles in large databases and presents them in the form of strong rules, according to the different degrees of interest.
There are many studies that apply/compare several DM models that provide feedback. Association rules, cluster- ing, classification, sequential pattern analysis, dependency modeling, and prediction have been used to enhance web- based learning environments to improve the degree to which the educator can evaluate the learning process [15]. Association-rule mining has been used to confront the problem of continuous feedback in the educational pro- cess. to provide feedback to the course author about how to improve courseware [10]. to help the teacher to discov- er beneficial or detrimental relationships between the use of web-based educational resources and student’s learning [16].
Other different DM techniques have been applied to provide feedback such as: domain-specific interactive DM to find the relationships between log data and student’s behavior in an educational hypermedia system [17]. A special type of feedback is when data come specifically from tests, questions, assessments, etc. In this case, the objective is to analyze it in order to improve the question- naires and to answer questions such as: what items / ques- tions test the same information, and which are of the most use for predicting course/test results, etc. Several DM approaches and techniques (clustering, classification, and association analysis) have been proposed for joint use in the mining of student’s assessment data [18].
Finally, another special type of feedback involves the use of text data. In this case, the objective of applying text/DM to educational data is to analyze educational contents, to summarize/analyze the learner’s discussion process, etc., in order to provide instructor feedback. Au- tomatic text analysis, content analysis, and text mining have been used to extract and identify the opinions found on Web pages in e-learning systems[19]. The applicability data mining techniques to identify the main drivers of student satisfaction in education institutions. In the end,
the resulting models are to be used by the management to support the strategic decision making process [20].
B. Educational Recommendation Systems Educational recommender system is very important.
Systems in Learning Networks in order to provide learners advice on the suitable learning activities to follow. Learn- ing networks target lifelong learners in any learning situa- tion, at all educational levels and in all national contexts. They are community-driven because every member is able to contribute to the learning material. Existing Recom- mender Systems and recommendation techniques used for consumer products and other contexts are assessed on their suitability for providing navigational support. The similarities and differences are translated into specific requirements for learning and specific requirements for recommendation techniques. On the use of memory-based recommendation techniques, which calculate recommen- dations based on the current data set. To need is proposed a combination of memory-based recommendation tech- niques that appear suitable to realise personalised recom- mendation on learning activities in the context of e- learning.
Recommendation systems may assist learners in identi- fying potentially helpful information objects. Online In- formation Searching Strategies Inventory (OISSI) was applied to examine the participants' perceptions of how students applied information searching strategies [21]. An initial model for the design of such systems in Learning networks and a roadmap for their further development are presented. Future research should further analyze which attributes of learners and learning activities and techniques perform best recommendations [22]. Student data was mined, using clustering, association rules and numerical analysis, to find common patterns affecting the learners performance that used as a basis for providing hints to the students. Students who were provided hints achieved higher average marks [23].
The objective is to be able to make recommendations directly to the students, teachers, and administrators with respect to their activities, links to visits, the next task or problem to be done, etc., and also to be able to adapt learning contents, interfaces, and sequences to each par- ticular student. Several DM techniques have been used for this task, but the most common are association-rule min- ing, clustering, and sequential pattern mining. Se- quence/sequential pattern mining aims to discover the relationships between occurrences of sequential events to find if there exists any specific order in the occurrences.
C. Prediction of student academic performance The objective of prediction is to estimate the unknown
value of a variable that describes the student. In education, the values normally predicted are performance, knowledge, and score. This value can be numeri- cal/continuous value (regression task) or categori- cal/discrete value (classification task). Regression analysis finds the relationship between a dependent variable and one or more independent variables. Classification is a procedure in which individual items are placed into groups based on quantitative information regarding one or more characteristics inherent in the items and based on a training set of previously labeled items. Prediction of a student’s performance is one of the oldest and most popu- lar applications of DM in education, and different tech-
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niques and models have been applied (neural networks, Bayesian networks, rule-based systems, regression, and correlation analysis). Modeling and prediction of student success is a critical task in education.Using the trained model enables interpretation of how different courses affect performance on a specific course in the future [24].
In the field of academics, data mining can be very use- ful in discovering valuable information which can be used for profiling students based on their academic record [25]. The classification task is used on student database to pre- dict the students division on the basis of previous data- base. As there are many approaches that are used for data classification, the decision tree method is used here. In- formation like Attendance, Class test, Seminar and As- signment marks were collected from the student's previous database, to predict the performance at the end of the semester. This study will help to the students and the teachers to improve the division of the student. This study will also work to identify those students which needed special attention to reduce fail ration and taking appropri- ate action for the next semester examination [7].
The various data mining techniques like classification, clustering and relationship mining can be applied on edu- cational data to predict the performance of a student in the examination and bring out betterment in his academic performance. Rule based classification techniques can be used to predict the result of the students in the final semes- ter based on the marks obtained by them in the previous semesters [26]. A computational method that can effi- ciently estimate the ability of students from of a Web- based learning environment capturing their problem solv- ing processes [27].
An approach based on grammar guided genetic pro- gramming, which classifies students in order to predict their final grade based on features extracted from logged data in a web based education system. This approach could be quite useful for early identification of students at risk, especially in very large classes, and allows the in- structor to provide information about the most relevant activities to help students have a better chance to pass a course [28]. Predicting student failure at school has be- come a difficult challenge due to the high number of fac- tors that can affect the low performance of students and the imbalanced nature of these types of datasets. A genetic programming algorithm and different data mining ap- proaches are proposed for solving these problems using real data. Firstly, we select the best attributes in order to resolve the problem of high dimensionality. Then, re- balancing of data and cost sensitive classification have been applied in order to resolve the problem of classifying imbalanced data [29].
The factors that lead to success or failure of students at placement tests is an interesting and challenging problem. Since the centralized placement tests and future academic achievements are considered to be related concepts, analy- sis of the success factors behind placement tests may help understand and potentially improve academic achieve- ment. The sensitivity analysis revealed that previous test experience, whether a student has a scholarship, student’s number of siblings, previous years’ grade point average are among the most important predictors of the placement test scores [30]. Teachers can also benefit from the use of adaptive educational systems enabling them to detect situations in which students experience problems [31]. The interactions that students have with each other, with
the instructors, and with educational resources are valua- ble indicators of the effectiveness of a learning experi- ence. It is shown to have significant correlation with stu- dent academic achievement thus validating the approach to be used as a prediction mechanism [32]. Prediction scores of the courses is one of the effective approaches which helps the students to select their courses intelligent- ly. Bayesian Network model for predicting the student course scores based of the student's educational history [33].
D. Cognitive Modeling of Student Learning The objective of student modeling is to develop cogni-
tive models of users/students, including a modeling of their skills and declarative knowledge. DM has been ap- plied to automatically consider user characteristics (moti- vation, satisfaction, learning styles, affective status, etc.) and learning behavior in order to automate the construc- tion of student models. The ability of an adaptive hyper- media system to create tailored environments depends mainly on the amount and accuracy of information stored in each user model. Some of the difficulties that user modeling faces are the amount of data available to create user models, the adequacy of the data, the noise within that data, and the necessity of capturing the imprecise nature of human behavior. Data mining and machine learning techniques have the ability to handle large amounts of data and to process uncertainty. These charac- teristicsmake these techniques suitable for automatic gen- eration of user models that simulate decision making. So it needs surveyed different data mining techniques that can be used to efficiently and accurately capture user behav- ior. Hence the need for representation guidelines that show which techniques may be used more efficiently according to the task implemented by the application [34].
Student modeling is one of the key factors that affects automated tutoring systems in making instructional deci- sions. A student model is a model to predict the probabil- ity of a student making errors on given problems. A good student model that matches with student behavior patterns often provides useful information on learning task diffi- culty and transfer of learning between related problems, and thus often yields better instruction. Manual construc- tion of such models usually requires substantial human effort, and may still miss distinctions in content and learn- ing that have important instructional implications. In here, proposed an approach that automatically discovers student models using a state-of-art machine learning agent. The discovered model is of higher quality than human- generated models, and demonstrate how the discovered model can be used to improve a tutoring system’s instruc- tion strategy [35]. Student modeling is widely used in educational data mining and intelligent systems for making scientific discoveries guidance and to guide instruction. For both these purposes, the model has a high accuracy is essential, and researchers have incorporated various features into a model student. However, due to the different techniques using a variety of features, when evaluating approaches, not easy to figure out what is the key to the high prediction accuracy: models or features. To build such knowledge, so it takes a variety of empirical studies that show models are considered as goods, skills, and transfer model. Difficulty items better predictor than the difficulty skill or expertise of students in the addition
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model. Previous work has shown that considering the overall student skills better [36].
A basic question of instructional interventions is how effective it is in promoting student learning. This study to determine the relative efficacy of different instructional strategies by applying an educational data mining tech- nique and learning decomposition. Using logistic regres- sion to determine how much learning is caused by differ- ent methods of teaching the same skill, relative to each other. Comparing of results with a previous study, which used classical analysis techniques and reported no main effect. Our results show that there is a marginal difference, suggesting giving students scaffolding questions is less effective at promoting student learning than providing them delayed feedback. This study utilizes learning de- composition, an easier and quicker approach of evaluating the quality of ITS interventions than experimental studies. The usage of computer-intensive approach, bootstrapping, for hypothesis testing in educational data mining area [37].
E. Detecting Behaviour of Student Learning The objective of detecting student behavior is to dis-
cover/detect those students who have some type of prob- lem or unusual behavior such as: erroneous actions, low motivation, misuse, cheating, dropping out, academic failure, etc. Several DM techniques mainly classification, and clustering have been used to reveal these types of students to provide them with appropriate help everyday.
Student dropout occurs quite often in universities. Sub- sequently, an attempt was made to identifying the most appropriate learning algorithm for the prediction of stu- dents dropout. A number of experiments have taken place with data provided. interesting conclusion is that the Na- ive Bayes algorithm can be successfully used. A prototype web based support tool, which can automatically recog- nize students with high probability of dropout, has been constructed by implementing this algorithm. It was proved that the learning algorithms predict dropout of new stu- dents with satisfying accuracy and thus become a useful tool in an attempt to prevent and therefore reduce drop- outs. The comparison of the six algorithms showed that the Naive Bayes algorithm is the most appropriate. A prototype web based support tool, which can recognize students with high probability of dropout. In a future work, in order to achieve the highest possible prediction accuracy with the usage of the fewest attributes (collecting student data is often expensive and time consuming and the classifier becomes more complicated), a wrapper at- tribute selection methodology along with the Naive Bayes algorithm will be used [38].
In the emerging field of educational data mining, a strong bias towards data-rich digital learning environ- ments. However, in many educational institutes a lot of regular course data will probably be more readily availa- ble. This data may also be used to support and advise students in various ways, for the better of the student as well as the institute. Based on experience, the department claims to be able to distinguish the potentially successful students from the first year before the end semester. To do this in an early stage is important for the student as well as for the university, but the selection is only loosely based on assumed student similarities over the years. There is no thorough analysis. Data mining techniques may corrobo- rate and improve the accuracy of this prediction. Further-
more, data mining techniques may point out indicators of academic success that are missed until now. The tech- niques are applied on data that is readily available in the institution's database [39].
Exams failure among university students has long fed a large number of debates, many education experts seeking to comprehend and explicate it, and many statisticians have tried to predict it. Understanding, predicting and preventing the academic failure are complex and continu- ous processes anchored in past and present information collected from scholastic situations and students’ surveys, but also on scientific research based on data mining tech- nologies. The experiments in the educational area, based on classification learning and data clustering techniques, made in order to draw up the students profile for exam failure/success. The results presented are a part of a larger research which is to be used to make numerous correla- tions, analysis and to be presented to the higher education institution managers, to offer a better knowledge of stu- dents present scholastic situations, their opinions regard- ing the each component of the educational process, and to predict some important aspects of their future scholastic situation. The purpose is to contribute to optimal manage- rial decision taking, in preventing students’ exams failure, improving learning abilities and scholastic results [40].
The incorporates virtual reality and artificial intelli- gence to simulate virtual autonomous characters and their cognitive processes in dangerous working situations. It generates behaviour-based errors to support learning and risk prevention. It uses new mechanisms taking into ac- count human factors with respect to cognitive modelling of human behaviour regarding risky situations. In the simulated environment the trainee can visualize the risks incurred during his work with the virtual agents. The emergent risks depend on the cognitive characteristics of the virtual operators and on the expertise of the trainee. The multi-agent system to support the control of virtual operators represented by virtual ognitive agents. The cog- nitive agents are enriched with a planner for selecting actions according to goals, the environment and to the personal characteristics of the agents. The system devel- oped to model virtual autonomous characters and their activities in risky situations to support learning, decision- making and risk prevention. Because human-factors are essential in such a training system we based our work on a cognitive model. Our multi-agent system is based up on action selection and cognitive planning. The decisions and create a plan depending on their physical and cognitive characteristics. The control mode delimitates the choice of an action. Depending on this parameter the agent plans broadly and chooses the actions more adapted to the situa- tion or plans to a more limited degree and compromises on safety aspects to gain productivity [41].
Analyzing data from existing system and databases de- veloped has allowed for system enhancements and an improved ability to meet student priorities with both sys- tem developments and support services. Error data pro- vides insight into not only system performance issues but also the system usability and user skills, which are then translated into supporting the users through design im- provements and staff development and support mecha- nisms. Data on usage patterns provides insight for design teams into new developments and improvements required. Support request data highlights common requests and issues, allowing technical support services and even staff
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development activities to be tailored accordingly [42]. The availability and use of computers in teaching has seen an increase in the rate of plagiarism among students because of the wide availability of electronic texts online. A classi- fication of types of plagiarism is presented, and an analy- sis is provided of the most promising technologies that have the potential of dealing with the limitations of cur- rent state-of-the-art systems. Furthermore, the article con- cludes with a discussion on legal and ethical issues related to the use of plagiarism detection software [43].
Presentation of framework that provides valuable knowledge to teachers and students, mainly based on fuzzy logic methodologies. the proposed framework is applied to the Didactic Planning course of Centre of Stud- ies in Communication and Educational Technologies virtual campus. The application shows it usefulness, im- proving the course understanding and providing valuable knowledge to teachers about the course performance [44]. Classification methods lke Bayesian network, rule mining and decision trees can be used to extract the hidden knowledge about the students behavior. These methods can be applied on the educational data to identify the weak students and can also be used to predct the students behav- ior and performance in the examination [45].
F. Student Learning Groups The objective is to create groups of students according
to their customized features, personal characteristics, etc. Then, the clusters/groups of students obtained can be used by the instructor/developer to build a personalized learn- ing system, to promote effective group learning, to pro- vide adaptive contents, etc. The DMtechniques used in this task are classification (supervised learning) and clus- tering (unsupervised learning).
The adoption of Learning Management Systems to cre- ate virtual learning communities is a unstructured form of allowing collaboration that is rapidly growing. Compared to other systems that structure interactions, these envi- ronments provide data of the interaction performed at a very low level. For assessment purposes, this fact poses some difficulties to derive higher lever indicators of col- laboration. So the need is proposed to shape the analysis problem as a data mining task. The typical data mining cycle bears many resemblances with proposed models for collaboration management. Some preliminary experiments using clustering to discover patterns reflecting user behav- iors. Results are very encouraging and suggest several research directions.
A lesson learned from the analysis of this type of data is that data collection needs to be carefully designed and tuned to include all the possibly useful information. Final- ly, focusing on clustering methods, at least two additional research opportunities. First, building clusters from low level features to provide some guide to instructors about how higher level features can be derived for further analy- sis. A larger number of clusters would be probably more useful for this task. Secondly, clustering can be also di- rectly applied to more elaborated data obtained in semi- structured workspaces, so that patterns can be automati- cally obtained instead of manually exploring individual or global reports. The data mining cycle, widely used for modeling business problems, fits very well into the recent line of research characterizing and classifying analysis methods systems. A lot of promising research directions combining aspects from both views. Data mining can be a
valuable source for data processing and model building techniques. It can provide methods to represent and inte- grate richer domain knowledge which, in fact, is still an open problem in data mining research [46]. Because, not all profiles may be present in the population. Combining a flexible of kmeans and determine efficient starting centers based on the -matrix substantially improves the clustering results and allows for analysis of data sets previously thought impossible [47].
There has been a proliferation of web-based learning programs. Unlike traditional computerbased learning programs, It is used by a population of learners who have diverse background. How different learners access It has been investigated by several studies, which indicate that cognitive style is an important factor that influences learn- ers’ preferences. However, these studies mainly use statis- tical methods to analyze learners’ preferences. Findings in this study show that Field Independent learners frequently use backward/forward buttons and spent less time for navigation. On the other hand, Field Dependent learners often use main menu and have more repeated visiting. The cognitive style is an important factor that determines stu- dents learning behavior. Further work needs to be under- taken with a larger sample to provide additional evidence. The decision trees, is a useful tool for classifying students’ cognitive styles. The advantage of using data mining ra- ther than statistical methods is that it is not necessary to make any assumptions. Further work can analyse students learning patterns using other classification methods, such as k-nearest neighbor or support vector machines. It would be interesting to see whether similar results would be found by using these classification methods [48].
The efficacy of online learning programs is tied to the suitability of the program in relation to the target audi- ence. Based on the dataset that provides information on student enrollment, academic performance, and de- mographics extracted from a data warehouse, the factors that could distinguish students who tend to take online courses from those who do not. To address this issue, data mining methods, including classification trees and multi- variate adaptive regressive splines, were employed. Un- like parametric methods that tend to return a long list of predictors, data mining methods suggest that only a few variables are relevant, namely, age and discipline. Previ- ous research suggests that older students prefer online courses and thus a conservative approach in adopting new technology is more suitable to this audience. However, younger students have a stronger tendency to take online classes than older students. These findings can help poli- cymakers prioritize resources for online course develop- ment and also help institutional researchers, faculty mem- bers, and instructional designers customize instructional design strategies for specific audiences [49].
Specifying the criteria of a rubric to assess an activity establishing the different quality level of proficiency of development and defining weight for every criterion is not easy. Besides, the complexity increases when the involve more than one lecturer. Reaching an agreement about the criteria and the level of proficiency might be easier taking into account the abilities student must achive according to the purpose of the subject. However, the disagreement about the weight of every criterion in an assesment rubric might easily appear. This focus on the automatic weight adjustment for the criteria of a rubric. So, It can be con- sidered as a global perception that the whole group of
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lecturers have about the accuracy of solving an activity. Each lecturer makes a proposal from a set of student glob- ally expresses who of each pair has solved better an activi- ty for which the rubric was designed. Approach base on the pairwise learning is proposed to obtain adequate weights for the criteria of rubric. The system commits fewer errors than the lecturer and make them improve and reconsider some aspects of the rubric [50]. A path model is used to investigate how two online peer-assessment activities rubric based assessment and peer feedback af- fected the learning performance of assessors and as- sessees. Several path models were tested and found that the original mom peers and student exam scores in a prior Humanities course were removed. model did not fit when the variable of cognitive feedback from peers was includ- ed. The best fit model was the one in which direct paths from cognitive feedback from peers and student exam scores in a prior Humanities course were removed [51].
The growing demand in e-learning, numerous research have been done to enhance teaching quality in e-learning environments. The researchers have indicated that adap- tive learning is a critical requirement for promoting the learning performance of students. Adaptive learning pro- vides adaptive learning materials, learning strategies and/or courses according to a students learning style. Hence, to achieving adaptive learning environments is to identify students learning styles. A learning style classifi- cation mechanism to classify and then identify students learning styles. The proposed mechanism improves k- nearest neighbor (k-NN) classification and combines it with genetic algorithms (GA). To demonstrate the viabil- ity of the proposed mechanism, the proposed mechanism is implemented on an open-learning management system. The learning behavioral students are collected and then classified by the proposed mechanism. The experimental results indicate that the proposed classification mechanism can effectively classify and identify students learning styles [52].
If any, studies have investigated the factors that might contribute to the integration or implementation of e- learning portals in universities. The support that by eff ctively developing higher levels of Groupware systems, teachers empower students to make better, more informed decisions and facilitate the utilization of e-learning portals [53]. the extraction of rare association rules when gather- ing student usage data from a Moodle system. This type of rule is more difficult to find when applying traditional data mining algorithms. Some relevant results obtained when comparing several frequent and rare association rule mining algorithms [54]. Co-Clustering simultaneously measures the degree of homogeneity in both data instanc- es and features, thus also achieving clustering and dimen- sionality reduction simultaneously. Students and features could be modelled as a bipartite graph and a simultaneous clustering could be posed as a bipartite graph partitioning problem [55].
G. The Analysis of Social Networks The Analysis of Social Networks, or structural analysis,
aims at studying relationships between individuals, instead of individual individual attributes or properties. A social network is considered to be a group of people, an organi- zation or social individuals who are connected by social relationships like friendship, cooperative relations, or informations exchange. In Web-based cooperative learn-
ing environments, peer-to-peer interaction often suffers from the difficulty due to lack of exploring useful social interaction information, so that peers cannot find appro- priate learning partners to make an effective cooperative learning. This problem easily results in poor learning outcomes in Web-based cooperative learning environ- ments. Generally, learning partners assigned by instructors cannot ensure to compose suitable learning groups for individual learners in cooperative learning environments. Inappropriate learning partners not only easily lead to poor learning interaction and achievement, but also lose the meaning of cooperative learning. As a result, present a novel scheme of mining social interactive networks for recommending appropriate learning partners for individual learners in a cooperative problem-based learning envi- ronment. The experimental results reveal that the pro- posed scheme provides likely benefits in terms of promot- ing learners learning interaction and learning performance in cooperative learning environments [56].
The basic and obvious benefit of the system to the stu- dents is as a course management system that keeps infor- mation about courses they have taken and facilitates communication with their advisors. Providing social navi- gation support and community-based recommendation provides more benefit and encouragement to use the sys- tem. However, to encourage students to evaluate the courses they have taken, The Career section of the system is very important. The results suggest that the “do-it-for- yourself” approach succeeds in providing more course recommendations. Observing progress toward each career goal is an important motivation for the students to use the system while also providing more explicit and implicit feedback to the system [57]. The presentation a model which can automatically detect a variety of student di- aloque acts as students collaborate within a computer supported collaborative learning environment. In addition, an analysis is presented which gives substantial insight as to how students learning is associated with students speech acts, knowledge that will significantly influence how this model is utilized by running learning software. Within Piagetian theory, the cognitive conflict of ideas between students is seen as beneficial for learning. Which sorts of interpersonal behaviors lead to most effective learning, however, is open to debate, with some research- ers arguing that cooperation is most effective and others arguing that interpersonal conflict is a natural part of col- laborative learning. In fact, interpersonal conflict is asso- ciated with positive learning, a finding that must be taken into account, in designing interventions that rely upon detectors of students speech acts [58].
Reffay and Chanier [59] have been argued that cohe- sion plays a central role in collaborative learning. In face- to-face classes, it can be reckoned from several visual or oral cues. In a Learning Management System environ- ment, such cues are absent. The Social Network Analysis concepts, adapted to the collaborative distance-learning context, can help measuring the cohesion of small groups. That processing embodied in monitoring tools, can display global properties both at individual level and at group level and efficiently assist the tutor in following the col- laboration within the group. It seems to be more appropri- ate than the long and detailed textual analysis of messages and the statistical distribution of participants contribu- tions. The diversified social and cultural backgrounds of online learners and instructors complicate the conceptual-
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ization of online social presence and pose challenges to instructors in course design. Multiple-group confirmatory factor analysis of the scores from the Computer-Mediated Communication Questionnaire (CMCQ), using Structural Equation Modeling, to assess the equality of the underly- ing factor structure across the low-context culture (LCC) and the high-context culture (HCC) groups. The cultural groups perceived online social presence in a slightly dif- ferent manner [60].
H. Concept Map Assessment of Classroom Learning The objective of constructing concept maps is to help
instructors/educators in the automatic process of develop- ing/constructing concept maps. Some DM techniques (mainly, association rules, and text mining) have been used to construct concept maps. [61], Concept maps are graphical tools for organizing and representing knowledge. They include concepts, usually enclosed in circles or boxes of some type, and relationships between concepts indicated by a connecting line linking two con- cepts. Words on the line, referred to as linking words or linking phrases, specify the relationship between the two concepts. Concept as a perceived regularity in events or objects, or records of events or objects, designated by a label. Propositions are statements about some object or event in the universe, either naturally occurring or con- structed. Propositions contain two or more concepts con- nected using linking words or phrases to form a meaning- ful statement.
For achieving the adaptive learning, a predefined con- cept map of a course is often used to provide adaptive learning guidance for learners. However, it is difficult and time consuming to create the concept map of a course. Thus, how to automatically create a concept map of a course becomes an interesting issue. There are Two-Phase Concept Map Construction approach to automatically construct the concept map by learners historical testing records. Phase 1 is used to preprocess the testing records; i.e., transform the numeric grade data, refine the testing records, and mine the association rules from input data. Phase 2 is used to transform the mined association rules into prerequisite relationships among learning concepts for creating the concept map. Therefore, Set Theory to transform the numeric testing records of learners into symbolic data, apply Education Theory to further refine it, and apply Data Mining approach to find its grade fuzzy association rules. Then, in Phase 2, based upon observa- tion in real learning situation are used multiple rule [62].
Recent researches have demonstrated the importance of concept map and its versatile applications especially in e- Learning. The designing adaptive learning materials, de- signers need to refer to the concept map of a subject do- main. Moreover, concept maps can show the whole pic- ture and core knowledge about a subject domain. Re- search from literature also suggests that graphical repre- sentation of domain knowledge can reduce the problems of information overload and learning disorientation for learners. However, construction of concept maps typically relied upon domain experts in the past; it is a time con- suming and high cost task. Concept maps creation for emerging new domains such as e-Learning is even more challenging due to its ongoing development nature. The constructed concept maps can provide a useful reference for researchers, who are new to the e-Learning field, to study related issues, for teachers to design adaptive learn-
ing materials, and for learners to understand the whole picture of e-Learning domain knowledge [63].
To make learning process more effective, the educa- tional systems deliver content adapted to specific user needs. Adequate personalization requires the domain of learning to be described explicitly in a particular detail, involving relationships between knowledge elements referred to as concepts. Manual creation of necessary annotations is in the case of larger courses a demanding task. A concept relationship discovery problem that is a step in adaptive e-course authoring process. A method of automatic concept relationship discovery for an adaptive e-course. An approaches based on domain model graph analysis. The further advantage of this method is that although the variants are targeted at the e-learning do- main,not limited to the presented computations are also applicable to different environments. Concept maps con- structed over the Web pages should in first step serve as backbone for development of richer semantic descriptions. Involvement of social annotations or folksonomies shifts method applicability even further [64].
The subject materials of most enterprise e-training pro- grams were mainly developed by employees of the enter- prises; therefore, it becomes a challenging issue to effi- ciently and effectively translate the knowledge and expe- riences of the employees to computerized subject materi- als, especially for those who are not an experienced teach- er. In addition, to develop an etraining course, personal ignorance or incorrect concepts might significantly affect the quality of the course if only a single employee is asked to develop the subject materials. To cope with this prob- lem, a multiexpert e-training course design model is pro- posed. Accordingly, an e-training course development system has been implemented. Moreover, a practical ap- plication has showed that of the novel approach not only can improve the quality, but also help the experts to or- ganize their domain knowledge. Nowadays, the notation of business management has changed from the emphasis of lower cost and high efficiency to the achievement of intellectual properties and innovation. Thus, how to max- imize the benefits of intellectual properties via the assis- tance of new technologies has become an important and challenging issue. The development of e-training courses is one of the effective ways to preserve and promote the intellectual properties of an enterprise. In this paper, we propose a Multiple-Expert approach to cooperatively developing e-training courses. In the novel approach, the method is employed to elicit and integrate the course design knowledge from multiple experts [65].
I. Courseware Construction Based on Data Mining The objective of constructing courseware is to help in-
structors and developers to carry out the construc- tion/development process of courseware and learning contents automatically. On the other hand, it also tries to promote the reuse/exchange of existing learning resources among different users and systems.
Different DM techniques and models have been used to develop coursewareRought set theory try to provide a possible solution to improve the learning performance of e-Learning system. The clustering method is used to con- struct a clustering concept hierarchy. The rough set theory can help solve uncertain problem well [66]. Several DM techniques have been applied to reuse learning resources. Hybrid unsupervised DM techniques have been employed
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to facilitate LO reuse and retrieval from the Web or from different LO repositories. Comparison tests between On- toDNA and other ontology mapping and merging tools have also indicated that OntoDNA outperforms most tools in terms of precision, recall and f-measure. In the future work, The enhancing of mapping and merging algorithm on many-to-one mapping and many-to-many mapping at conceptual level and instance level for constraint mapping and merging [67].
Due to massive information overload on the web it’s hard to index and reuse existing learning resources. Clas- sifying learning resources according to domain specific concept hierarchies could address the problem of indexing and reusability. Manual classification is a tedious task and, as a result, automatic classifiers are in high demand. For this task we present an automated approach based on machine learning technique to exploit hierarchal knowledge in order to classify learning resources in a given hierarchy of concepts. The experiment that using hierarchical information and content of unclassified doc- uments provides better accuracy [68]. Most currently used e-Learning Systems do not often offer search functionali- ty. Even if methods are provided to search for Learning Objects (LOs), they don’t usually utilize information about users’ interests stored in their profiles. Moreover, most of the search engines are only use query conformity to order the result list. User profiling methods are usually absent, as behaviour analysis methods are difficult to implement in specialised e-Learning systems. In this pa- per, a new approach for profiled search, which enables better adjustment of the order of results for end-users’ expectations is proposed. It is related to the situation when both LOs and users profile descriptions are standardized [69].
J. Effective Process Planning and Scheduling The objective of planning and scheduling is to enhance
the traditional educational process by planning future courses, helping with student course scheduling, planning resource allocation, helping in the admission and counsel- ing processes, developing curriculum, etc. Different DM techniques have been used for this task mainly association rules.
Data mining techniques to analyze the course prefer- ences and course completion rates of enrollees in exten- sion education courses at a university. First, extension courses were classified into five broad groups. Records of enrollees in extension courses were then analyzed by three data mining algorithms: Decision Tree, Link Analysis, and Decision Forest. Decision tree was used to find enrol- lee course preferences, Link Analysis found the correla- tion between course category and enrollee profession, and Decision Forest found the probability of enrollees com- pleting preferred courses. Results will be used as a refer- ence for curriculum development in the extension pro- gram [70]. The main contributions of this study discusses on how the various data mining techniques can be applied to the set of educational data and what new explicit knowledge or models are discovered. The models are classified based on the type of techniques used, including predictive and descriptive. The obtained rules from each model are translated into plain English as a factor to be considered by the managerial system to either support their current decision makings or help them to set new strategies and plan to improve their decision making pro-
cedures. The final results have been analyzed and validat- ed with real situations in a university. The factors affect- ing the anomalies have been discusses in detail. The final result from each model using various techniques [71].
Increasing the quality of personnel by cultivating tal- ents for the future becomes an extremely important issue. With the growth of firms and the increase in their needs, the database is also growing. therefore determine how to recognize and extract the useful information contained in this database in order to apply it in such a way that assists institution in meeting their increasing and changing needs. Data collecting of personnel educational training by clus- ter analysis, decision tree algorithm and back-propagation neural networks for mining analysis and classification. The key factors essential to the success of educational training. Once identified, this information can then serve as the basis for other firms future planning of educational training strategies with regard to innovation and break- through [72].
The role of management education offers great oppor- tunity for many interesting and challenging data mining applications. The meaningful knowledge and potentially useful patterns extracted through data mining can assist in improving the quality of education and performance of students. The conceptual frame work of data mining pro- cess in management education. Management institutions will find larger and wider applications for data mining as these institutes carry research and teachings that relates to creation, transformation and utilization of knowledge. The framework helps management institutes to explore the effects of probable changes in recruitments, admissions and courses and ensures efficiency in the quality of stu- dents, student assessments, evaluations and allocations. The data mining process in management education in general and academic aspects of admission and counseling process in particular. The patterns that can be generated using data mining techniques are also suggested [73]. In the actual economical context, characterized by the com- petition pressures, the use of decisional tools become a valuable advantage to make the difference. The concepts of data warehouse, multidimensional model and data min- ing, are essentials in the design and the deployment of such tools. The design and implementation of a decisional tool, dedicated to a no lucrative goal institution. An uni- versity that hopes to improve the quality of his service, by analyzing the pedagogical results, to discover the success and failure factors, and attempt to increase success chanc- es of students. In this perspective is used OLAP (Online Analytical Process) and association rules discovery tech- niques [74].
A data mining technique and a genetic algorithm are applied to an automatic course scheduling system to pro- duce course timetables that best suit students and teachers’ needs. A practical automatic course scheduling system based on students needs, wherein the course scheduling process is divided into two stages. In the first stage, stu- dents needs in course selection are considered and an association among courses selected by students is mined using the association mining technique; while in the se- cond stage, the genetic algorithm is used to arrange the course timetable. The experiment results that the automat- ic course scheduling system proposed in this study not only can efficiently replace the onerous operation of con- ventional manual course scheduling, but also produce course timetables that truly fulfill users needs and increase
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students and teachers satisfaction, thereby providing a win-win-win solution for students, teachers and the school [75].
K. Data Visualization The objective of data visualization is to highlight useful
information and support decision making. In the educa- tional environment, for example, it can help educators and course administrators to analyze the students’ course ac- tivities and usage information to get a general view of a student’s learning. Statistics and visualization information are the two main techniques that have been most widely used for this task. While statistics is a mathematical sci- ence used concerning the collection, analysis, interpreta- tion or explanation, and presentation of data. It is relative- ly easy to get descriptive statistics from statistical soft- ware. This descriptive analysis can provide such global data characteristics as summaries and reports about learn- er. Statistical analysis is also very useful to obtain reports assessing, how many minutes the student has worked, how many minutes he has worked today, how many problems
he has resolved, and his correct percentage, our prediction of his score, and his performance level.
Information visualization uses graphic techniques to help people to understand and analyze data. Visual repre- sentations and interaction techniques take advantage of the human eye’s broad bandwidth pathway into the mind to allow users to see, explore, and understand large amounts of information at once. There are several studies oriented toward visualizing different educational data such as: patterns of annual, seasonal, daily, and hourly user behav- ior on online forums [76]. Presentation of unified data framework that allows the aggregation of high demand data sources into a single useful research resource that is relevant to research in higher education. The unified data framework guides the aggregation of existing and new data sets, and provides the option of connecting and auto- matically, or semi-automatically, updating data from the original sources. The unified data framework presents to researchers of higher education a robust suite of analytic tools for data mining and visualization of combined and complex data sources [77].
TABLE I. A REVIEW SUMMARY OF DATA MINING TECHNIQUES IN EDUCATION FIELDS
Authors Year Method Dataset Result Advantages Disadvantages
Fayyad et al.
1996 DM & KDD A simple dataset with two classes
Direction of current and future research
There are a better understanding
Limited in scope
Zaiane et al
2001 Learning Activity Evaluation
Students in web-based learning environment
Improve the quality of web- based learning environment
Can help students and educators
The results have not been optimal
Kotsiantis et al.
2003 Machine Learning Techniques
Student dataset from the Hellenic Open University
Students can identify potential dropouts
Automatically Collecting student data is often expensive and time consuming
Reffay et al.
2003 Collaborative distance-learning
Data extracted from a 10- week distance-learning experiment
Efficiently assist the tutor in following the collaboration within the group
More appropriate than the long and detailed textual analysis
There is no monitoring system
Romero et al.
2004 grammar-based genetic program- ming, prediction rules
Students Usage Infor- mation
Improving methodology of adaptive systems for web-based education
Useful knowledge for teachers
This method may not be applicable to com- mon problem
Tavalera et al.
2004 Clustering to discover patterns
Student dataset The patterns reflecting user behaviors.
Widely used for model- ing business problem
Still need more research
Burr et al.
2004 Time use analysis Student dataset from Uni- versity Online Forums
Clearly demonstrate that the available technology does not influence study habits
There is little work done on how and when stu- dents make use of such facilities
Required surcharge
Saini et al.
2005 Document cluster- ing
Document dataset Provides better accuracy Expectation Maximiza- tion
The algorithms pres- ently classify docu- ments on only the leaf nodes
Farzan et al.
2006 Adaptive commu- nity-based hyper- media system
Student course dataset Recommendations based on students assessment of course relevance to their career goals
There are explicit student feedback and then evaluates
Not taking into account implicit feedback
Frias- Martinez et al.
2006 Adaptive hyper- media
Relevant information about the behavior of a user (or set of users)
The ability to handle large amounts of data and to process uncertainty
Efficiently and accurate- ly capture user behavior
The system has not been integrated
Novak et al.
2006 Concept Maps The concepts represented by the words, and the propositions or ideas
The basic theory and the origins of the concept map
Simple but deeply meaningful
Still need to be revised periodically
Hubscher et al.
2007 Clustering Students dataset and the educational hypermedia system
Finding of some interesting patterns
More general approaches Complex algorithm and costly
Orzecho wski et al
2007 Collaborative filtering
Data from e-learning systems
Search results in a way as close to the users
Computational complexi- ty kept at minimum
Very time-consuming
Chu et al. 2007 a multiexpert e- training course
Employees of the company Can improve the quality of the etraining course
Help the experts to organize their domain knowledge
Compares several features of traditional course design system
Heathcote et al
2007 Transaction log analysis
Data harvesting from various databases
More proactive support services Usefulness of the system increases
The design of the system is not good
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Kiu et al. 2007 OntoDNA, which employs hybrid unsupervised data mining techniques
Statistic on paired ontolo- gies
The OntoDNA is able to re- solve semantic, lexical and structural heterogeneity
OntoDNA outperforms most tools in terms of precision
Mapping is still low
Song et al.
2007 Conditional Ran- dom Fields
Subject content value dictionaries
Support for e-learning system Can help teachers and users
Not been applied to a real e-learning
Tseng et al.
2007 Fuzzy association rules
Student’s score dataset Building a concept map automatically
Can evaluate the results Experimental testing rather than real learning
Chiu et al.
2008 Rough set theory Frequently asked questions (FAQ) from Univ.
The relevant FAQs for the user query are generated
Improvement of learning performance
Not applying the methods in natural language
Drachsler et al.
2008 Collaborative Filtering
Student dataset from uni- versity
Support to make a personal decision
Can be used for lifelong learning
Limited attribute
Wang et al.
2008 Association min- ing
Student, course, lecturer, and class
An automatic course scheduling system
Win-win solution Complex algorithm and costly
Pecheniz kiy et al.
2008 Clustering, classi- fication and asso- ciation
The online assessment of students
With a modest size dataset and well-defined problem
It's easier to get results Less focus on the discovery of patterns
Bresfelea n et al.
2008 classification learning, cluster- ing
Student’s surveys dataset Framework to profile students who failed / successful
Can make predictions accuracy of less
Chen et al.
2008 Social network analysis
72 learners Presents a novel scheme of interactive mining social net- works
Interaction and learning performance in cooperative learning environments
Not to be applied real
Chen et al.
2008 Text-mining techniques
Conference papers in e- Learning domain as data sources
Provide a useful reference for researchers
Learning can be done better
Narrow data range
Delavari et al.
2008 Classification, prediction, associ- ation rule analysis
Historical and operational data that reside in the educational organization
Decision support system Ability of data mining is better
Only applied to higher education
Edward et al.
2008 Multi-agent sys- tem
Human factors with respect to cognitive modelling of behaviour
A multi-agent system to support the control of virtual operators
Cognitive agents are enriched with a planner for selecting actions according to goals
Limitations of system by integration of knowledge
Hsia et al.
2008 Decision Tree, Link Analysis, and Decision Forest
Enrollees in extension education courses at a university in Taiwan
Reference for curriculum development in the extension program
as a reference for curriculum development and marketing in the field of higher education
Just extension educa- tion
Ranjan et al.
2008 Data mining, pattern
Student course dataset The framework helps manage- ment to explore the information needed
Improving the quality of learning
Intelligence system is still lacking
Selmoune et al.
2008 Multidimensional model
Student dataset from uni- versity
Quality of care improved Can increase the chances of student success
Lack of data
Wang et al.
2008 Association min- ing
Students, teachers, space, and lessons dataset
Optimal course schedule Lectures run better The systems only analyze the results of course selection
Yu et al. 2008 Classification trees and multivar- iate adaptive regressive splines
Students of online courses That younger students have a stronger tendency to take online classes
can help policy makers prioritize resources
The variables used are limited
Bresfelea n et al.
2009 DM and DSS Academic dataset from high education
Presenting relevant information Time efficiency High cost
Dekker 2009 The binary classi- cation
Student dataset from insti- tutes
An accuracy of 75% to 80% The techniques are applied on data that is readily available
No additional data
Feng et al.
2009 Decomposition, bootstrapping randomization
Response data of student That delayed feedback tutoring strategy is more effective
An easier, quicker, and low cost
Computationally intensive techniques are less powerful
Huang et al.
2009 The algorithm classification
Personnel educational training
Basic planning agency stretegis Better planning It took extra time for planning
Lee et al. 2009 Statistical methods Learners Learners frequently use less time for navigation
Time efficiency Learners often repeat- ed visiting
Prata et al.
2009 The Bayes classi- fication algorithm
Students from elementary school near Pittsburgh
There are correlations between pre and post-test learning
Learning gains were positively
Have not been able to detect conflicts
Quevedo et al.
2009 Pairwise learning model
The dataset from a core course
Obtaining weights for the criteria of rubric
It reduces error Lack of criteria
Romero et al.
2009 Fuzzy rules Moodle dataset from University Cordoba
Subgroup discovery Better results Slightly of rules which are understandable
Simko et al
2009 Automatic concept relationship
Student dataset from insti- tute
PageRank-based variant achieves better results
Not limited to it A course authoring process
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Chang et al.
2009 k-Nearest neigh- bor classification
117 elementary school students
The classification mechanism can effectively classify and identify students learning styles
Students can be classified and identified
Data only for elementary school students
Gong et al.
2009 Knowledge Trac- ing (KT) model
Student dataset high self-discipline students had significantly higher initial knowledge
Expand the flow of information
There can be problems of both over and under reporting
Baepler et al.
2010 academic analyt- ics, data mining
Academic dataset from higher education
recommendations for action It can begin to sift through the noise and provide researchers with a new set of tools
Yet really effective
Domingu ez et al.
2010 Clustering, associ- ation rules and numerical analysis
Student data in 2008 Users who were provided with hints achieved higher average marks
The hinting system had greatly helped users
Need to intelligent systems development
Mozgovo y et al
2010 A classification of types of plagia- rism
Student course dataset Detection can be done better Plagiarism can be reduced
Belum dipertim- bangkan aspek hukum dalam sistem
Nugent et al.
2010 The Empty K- Means Algorithm with Automatic Specification
Student course dataset Improves the clustering results Allows for analysis of data sets that previously thought impossible
Some natural clusters were not present
Romero et al.
2010 Association Rules Student usage data from a Moodle system
Relevant results and good performance
Packed with illustrative examples
Not compared to the previous algorithm
Abdullah et al.
2011 Positive associa- tion rules
Student dataset from UMT Association rules with high correlation
Can help decision mak- ing
No other datasets
Baradwaj et al.
2011 Decision tree End of the semester stu- dents test scores
Describes students performance It helps in identifying the dropouts students
Complex algorithm
Li et al. 2011 A state-of-art machine learning agent
Students who study Alge- bra
Improvement a tutoring systems Could be used for such cross-datase
Limited to one class
Abdullah et al.
2011 Least association rules
Students examination result dataset
Reduce up to 98% of uninter- ested association rules
Can be used to reveal the significant rules
Not using a real dataset
Yen et al. 2011 Structural equa- tion modeling
Online learners and instruc- tors
That cultural groups perceived online social presence in a slightly different manner
Learners can be grouped according to the social
It may lead to social inequality
Sachin et al.
2012 EDM, KDD Student dataset from insti- tutes
EDM has proven to be more successfull
EDM can be applied to wide areas
Research is still lim- ited
Alper et al.
2012 Machine learning methods
Student dataset Can predict students' future Improving the prediction results
Measurements have not been detailed
Anderson et al.
2012 symbiotic rela- tionship between technology and pedagogy
administrators, instructors, and students
a significant relationship between students' use of technology for academic purposes
self-reported educational gains as well as technological gains
the gap between high and low technology users
Dejaeger et al.
2012 Multi class classi- fication
Students two business education institutions
The strategic decision process support
Decision making faster In the context of the other less effective
Fournier- Viger et al.
2012 Association rule mining
three real-life public da- tasets
CMRules is faster and has a better scalability for low sup- port thresholds
a successful application of the algorithm in a tutoring agent
The algorithm is still slow
Gaudioso et al.
2012 Predictive models, Descriptive mod- els
Secondary education students datasets
The predictive modeling in the area of supporting teachers in adaptive educational systems
Teachers can detect situations in which students experience problems
The models are still very simple
Kumar et al.
2012 Rule based classi- fication
The students in the final semester
Predicting the performance of students
The accuracy is quite high
The algorithm used is rather complicated
Lee 2012 Log file analysis 407 college students Significantly enhance the learning efficiency of students
To estimate the ability of students
There is still uncertainty factor
Liu et al. 2012 Recommendation systems on Inter- net-based learning
Student course dataset The recommendations may influence the behaviors
Focused searchers and broad searchers
Required wider data
Lu et al. 2012 Path Model 180 high school students The best fit model was direct paths from cognitive feedback
More effective Not tested in college
Blago- jevic et al.
2012 PDCA (Plan, Do, Check, Act)
Student dataset from Uni- versity of Kragujevac
The design, implementation, and evaluation of the system
Increasing the efficiency of the courses
There is no comparative analysis
Mishra et al.
2012 Classification, ID3 decision tree
Student course dataset It helps the faculties to improve and bring out betterment in the result of students.
A fully automated Accuracy of data is rather doubtful
Navarro et al.
2012 Multinomial logistic regression
210 students in a Spanish university
Teachers empower students to make better
More informed decisions Not yet developed to the level of higher
Nebot et al.
2012 Fuzzy inductive reasoning (FIR)
Teachers and students Providing valuable knowledge to teachers about the course performance.
Can provide feedback for further action
Applied in the virtual campus
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PAPER DATA MINING FOR EDUCATION DECISION SUPPORT: A REVIEW
Ngo et al. 2012 Unified Data Framework
The Unified Data Frame- work guides the aggrega- tion of existing and new data sets
Analytic tools for data mining and visualization
Automatically updating data from the original sources
The algorithm is rather complex
Parack et al.
2012 Apriori Algorithm, K-means Cluster- ing
Student grades dataset The implemented algorithms offer an effective way in educa- tional systems
Can find important information
Number paremeter less
Romero- Zaldivar et al.
2012 Virtual appliances Student course dataset Significant correlation with student academic achievemen
Being able to provide predictions
Analysis of quantitative data only
Sen et al. 2012 Classification, Prediction
A large and feature rich dataset from Secondary Education Transition System in Turkey
Decision tree algorithm is the best predictor with 95% accura- cy
High accuracy Efficiency is less
Torabi et al.
2012 Bayesian networks Student scores dataset Provides predictions that improve the quality of student learning
The possibility of failure can be minimized
Not shown in the percentage rate of success
Trandafili et al.
2012 Clustering Students of higher education institutions dataset
Improving the quality and performance of students
Reveal interesting and important students profiles
Complex process and it may take longer
Zafra et al.
2012 Classification Student in web based educational environments dataset
The proposed method achieved better accuracy
Useful for early identifi- cation of students at risk
Qualitative data have not been taken into account
Zendler et al.
2012 The assessment of content and pro- cess concepts relevant
Teachers of computer science in schools
Computer science professors attach more importance to content concepts
Computer science will continue to evolve
Computer science teachers will be left
Zorrilla et al.
2012 Service-oriented architecture
profile for the multimedia data set
Quality of service improved The service itself is able to perform all the process
Users are less specific
Trivedi et al.
2012 Spectral Coclus- tering
Student dataset The proposed method is very useful for institutions
Enhance better performance
The dataset is not suitable as co- occurrence tables and believe
Marquez- Vera et al.
2012 Classification, Grammar-based genetic program- ming
670 high school students from Zacatecas, Mexico
Higher accuracy Students who may fail immediately in anticipa- tion
Complex algorithm
IV. CONCLUSION
A. Conclusion The database is owned by a higher education need to be
explored more in the data mining to obtain very valuable information and knowledge beneficial to the development of higher education in the future. Patterns data contained in the database is then converted into a model and used to predict the trend of the data with accuracy high. As a result, the agency is expected to more easily manage their resources appropriately and wisely.
EDM has been introduced as an area of future research related to several well-established area of research. Therefore, it can be said that EDM is no longer in the initial study, but has yet to be an area of research. In fact, we have outlined some of the front line were interesting, but to be more mature areas, is also necessary for researchers to develop a more cohesive and collaborative research. Thus, the full integration of the DM in the educational environment will become reality, and fully implementing the operation can be made available not only to researchers and developers, but also for external users.
B. Directions and Opportunities for future research There is a lot of future work to be considered in EDM,
indicate in continuation what arguably are the most inter- esting and influential. In fact, a few initial studies on some of these points have already begun to appear, namely :
a) EDM Equipment should be designed to be easier for educators or novice user in DM. DMtools usually de-
signed more for strength, flexibility, and simplicity. Most current DM tools are too complex for educators to use and their features go beyond the scope of what educators might want to do. One solutionis possible development using standard algorithms for each task and the free parameters DM algorithms to simplify the configuration and execution for the novice user. EDM tool should also have a more intuitive interface that is easy to use.
b) DM tool should be integrated into the learning envi- ronment. All data mining tasks (preprocessing, data mining, and postprocessing) should be done in a sin- gle application with a standard interface. DM tool should be integrated into the learning environment. All data mining tasks (preprocessing, data mining, and postprocessing) should be done in a single appli- cation with a standard interface.
c) Standardization of data and models. No re-use of common tools or tools that can be applied to any sys- tem of education. Therefore, standardization of data input, processing and output of the model is required, as along with preprocessing, find, and postprocessing tasks.
d) Traditional mining algorithms need to be adjusted to take into account the context of education. DM tech- niques to use semantic information when applied to education data. Special education in mining engi- neering can greatly improve instructional design, managerial and pedagogical decisions, and the pur- pose of the Semantic Web is to facilitate data man- agement in an educational environment.
iJET ‒ Volume 9, Issue 6, 2014 17
PAPER DATA MINING FOR EDUCATION DECISION SUPPORT: A REVIEW
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AUTHORS Suhirman is with University Technology of Yogyakar-
ta, Yogyakarta, Indonesia and Universiti Malaysia Pa- hang, Gambang, Kuantan Pahang, Malaysia.
Jasni Mohamad Zain is with University Technology of Yogyakarta, Yogyakarta, Indonesia.
Tutut Herawan is with the Department of Information System, University of Malaya, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia.
Submitted 08 June 2014. Published as resubmitted by the authors 08 December 2014.
iJET ‒ Volume 9, Issue 6, 2014 19
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Mandatory Assignment Resources/Data-informed decision making helps communities thrive.pdf
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http://www.extension.umn.edu/community/news/data-informed-decision.html 1/4
Community Features
Data-informed decision making helps communities thrive
Author: Joyce Hoelting Content Source: Ben Winchester Winter 2010
Use of 2010 census data one example Census data collected in 2010 (see related article) have begun to trickle into public decision making. And that’s a good thing. Why? Because reliable data, interpreted properly, can help communities address problems, improve public services, support business, get funding, build leadership, increase cooperation, and much more. In short, data-informed decision making can help communities thrive.
Using data locally Online resources have made data of all types — including census data — more accessible to anyone involved in local decisions. What does data-informed decision making mean for communities? It means that data become an integral part of community discussions, and that current data is tapped to test assumptions and balance opinion with information. Although data cannot and should not provide the sole source of information, data informs the process and the people, helping communities get a lot of work done. That’s why Extension programs often includes strategies for using data in community decisions.
1. Make your case, support your cause. Data help bolster successful grant proposals, effective arguments to local officials, and attention-getting news releases that produce media coverage. Data back up the hopes, dreams, opinions and stories that your community wants to put forward.
What you can do: Consider making a “boilerplate” data-rich description of your community available to nonprofits, government programs, community groups and the media in your area. This makes it easier for these groups to make their case and bring new resources to your community.
Dive deeper: Since 2009,Extension’s Community Economics educators have been delivering economic impact analysis reports to communities to help them make their case for economic development projects. Communities using these reports have been successful in, for example, affecting state appropriations and creating buy-local campaigns.
2. Define problems, count your assets. Sometimes problems such as population decline are bigger, smaller or more nuanced than we assume. Or good news might not be obvious at first glance. Data can hold up a mirror and throw a light in the dark corners.
What you can do: Dig deeper into data, perhaps with the help of local college students or other local resources, to look at the whole picture and think critically about the future.
Dive deeper: Extension’s report on the impact of population shifts (see “brain gain” article) can be the impetus for deeper community conversations and planning in rural communities. Extension educators
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are available to present this data to groups.
3. Retain and attract business; encourage entrepreneurship. Population, age, race, income and housing data can help businesses evaluate market conditions, new opportunities, product adjustments, and more.
What you can do: Community business groups and financing organizations can provide data to existing and prospective businesses, as well as entrepreneurs, to aid them in planning and decision making.
Dive deeper: Extension’s Market Area Profiles use census and other data to create full reports on local markets. Communities that have sponsored these reports make them available to businesses through local Chambers, banks, and other organizations.
4. Build bridges to other communities. Partnerships and collaboration among contiguous counties, communities and regions are becoming more common. However, data also can spark alliances among communities that may be geographically separate but face similar demographic shifts and challenges.
What you can do: Take a look at statewide data. Are there other communities with similar demographic dynamics? Seek out information from those communities to learn how they have addressed change. This can generate new ideas and energy.
Dive deeper: Extension has found that statewide initiatives such as Horizons (which helps small communities interested in addressing poverty) and the Minnesota Intelligent Rural Communities initiative (which helps communities interested in broader adoption of technology) make stronger connections happen among like-minded communities. Get involved with multi-community initiatives like these to build bridges for your community
5. Inform the public, challenge assumptions. Sometimes census and other data can provide indisputable evidence that change is inevitable and thus garner support for difficult decisions. Moreover, leaders may need to educate the general public and other stakeholders to prevent erroneous assumptions based on data. For example, 2010 census data about educational attainment is skewed by the presence of a prison in one Minnesota community. While it’s important to recognize the prison as a major employer, it also should be noted that the inmate population reduces the town’s average for years of schooling completed.
What you can do: Be ready, and even proactive, to educate the general public and important stakeholder groups about the meaning behind the numbers.
Dive deeper: When Extension works with communities in policy development and strategic planning, the process typically starts with presentations of data that help communities understand information before they move into interpreting and planning. Consider what information your local planning will incorporate.
6. Build representative leadership. Do the advisory committees, boards, volunteer groups and other representative organizations in your community reflect its diversity of age, culture, educational attainment and occupations? Are the processes for making decisions engaging them? If not, it’s important to remedy the situation and work for civic engagement and good process design in decision making. Research reveals that engaging the public leads to better informed decision making and stronger solutions to problems. (Learn more about the benefits of public participation in this Extension tip sheet.)
What you can do: Review your census and other applicable data to compare community demographics with that of local leadership. If the leadership profile doesn’t match the community’s, consider recruiting
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new leaders from the full diversity of residents in your town.
Dive deeper: A number of communities have implemented Extension’s leadership program to train and encourage local residents in leadership roles. Other communities have tapped our facilitation resources to help design helpful decision-making processes. These programs have been successful in recruiting more residents in community work.
7. Find the stories behind the data. If your town’s demographics are changing, you need to look beyond the statistics and talk to the people involved — whether they are aging residents or Somali immigrants. In this way, you will learn about their concerns and discover opportunities.
What you can do: Seek stories behind the changes that data reveal, and create forums where those stories can be shared. These stories can make a big difference in community leadership. Inviting a wide range of residents into the discussion can increase their stake in the decision-making process.
Dive deeper: Extension’s Assessing Social Capital program helps build connections by training volunteers to implement a survey of residents on how they experience connections in the community. These surveys seek to reach out to representative samples of community residents.
Learn more 2010 census release continues — with changes
Economic Impact Analysis
Market area profiles
Horizons
Engaging with the Public (tip sheet series)
Leadership
Assessing Social Capital
Also in this issue
Newcomers mean brain gain for rural Minnesota
Is your community ready for a big idea?
View all community features
Connect with us
Find an educator near you Find Extension Center for Community Vitality on Facebook. To subscribe to Vital Connections, please email Joyce Hoelting
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The University of Minnesota is an equal opportunity educator and employer.
Mandatory Assignment Resources/Incorporating values into sustainability decision-making.pdf
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Journal of Cleaner Production 105 (2015) 146e156
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Journal of Cleaner Production
journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/jclepro
Incorporating values into sustainability decision-making
Lawrence Martin Erasmus University, Rotterdam, Netherlands
a r t i c l e i n f o
Article history: Received 17 September 2014 Received in revised form 2 February 2015 Accepted 6 April 2015 Available online 14 April 2015
Keywords: Values Decision science Sustainability Multi-criteria Phronesis
E-mail address: [email protected].
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2015.04.014 0959-6526/Published by Elsevier Ltd.
a b s t r a c t
This paper explores rigorous methods to transparently incorporate values in sustainability decision- making. Empirical, normative and other decision-making methods are discussed using a conceptual architecture borrowed from the Aristotelian ideas of Episteme, Techne and Phronesis. The application and limits to positivist reasoning for decision-making is explored through discussions of wicked and tame problems (where the introduction of values is discussed), the analytic-deliberative framework (that characterizes most assessment methods), and postenormal science. An example examining air quality regulation and enforcement is used to explore concepts. Recognizing the continuum of quantitative to qualitative decision-making calculus, and how to apply it constructively to decision-making is an area of needed inquiry for scientists, policy-makers, consultants and corporate leaders concerned about helping to effect the transition to more sustainable societal patterns. This necessitates researchers and decision makers acknowledge that sustainability preferences are driven by values. This author concludes that decision-making methods that provide a transparent means to value outcomes and to integrate disparate information and perceptions (and values) have been demonstrated to be the most useful in settings with a variety of stakeholders that value different outcomes. Such conditions are typical in natural resource and sustainability problems where trade-offs are often necessary.
Published by Elsevier Ltd.
1. Introduction
This paper is a theoretical and methodological exploration of the incorporation of values in sustainability decision-making. In gen- eral, the incorporation of value-based judgment occurs on a con- tinuum from analytical and objective to biased and subjective. Science has an interesting history of grappling with where to draw the line on what value-judgments will be validated and what will be dismissed as unsubstantiated. Sustainability, in contrast to fluid dynamics, for example, is subject to greater subjectivity by the researcher e from problem formulation and the selection of data, to interpretation of results. Sustainability and sustainable develop- ment follow from policy and judgments very much informed by values. Sustainability decisions are contextual, value laden, and often focused on social action. In the quest for relevance and persuasive power, researchers seek to design studies and to explain results and recommendations with as great a rigor as possible. Understanding the utility and productive use of values in the context of the science of decision making and sustainability science can aid the practice of sustainability decision-making through the
deliberate, judicious and transparent use of informed value-based judgment.
This paper is organized as a selective review of decision science and sustainability science literature, highlighting features of both that are relevant to the use of value judgment in sustainability decision-making. By weaving together elucidation of key concepts and the use of an example, systematic methods are described for anchoring judgment based on values into sustainability decision- making with rigor and transparency.
The science of decision making and sustainability science each have rich literatures, decision science in particular having mush- roomed with applications throughout business, research and the social sciences. Sustainability science has also grown tremendously in recent years as governments and other institutions have worked to incorporate sustainability objectives into their decision-making. This paper is focused on how to incorporate the normative, values dimension of sustainability into decision-making for sustainable outcomes. It explores the Aristotelian concept of phronesis, the incorporation of values into judgments. The author acknowledges a normative framework that advances environmental resource and ecosystem management as primary to sustainability decision- making, predicated on the belief that ecosystems are the primary source for all resulting social and economic conditions. This idea
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was explored in the book, For the Common Good, by Daly and Cobb (1994).
This author examined decision-making method, which is distinguished from decision support or “problem analysis” (Kepner and Tregoe, 1965). Good decision-making begins with the proper framing of the problem and selection of decision support tools to inform the analysis (NRC, 2009). This is typically a recursive and deliberative process between framing the problem, considering decision support studies or methods to inform the analysis, and criteria by which the decision is made.
In contrast, decision support is less a process, and more a discrete tool, model, or data set. Consider the difference in use of environmental indicators and environmental accounting.
The System of Integrated Environmental and Economic Ac- counting (SEEA) was introduced in 2003 to standardize environ- mental indicators and accounting methods for national accounts. It is available as the Handbook of National Accounting: Integrated Environmental and Economic Accounting e An Operational Manual.1 Ziegler and Ott (2011) observed that the SEEA covers a wide range of conceptual and empirical issues relevant to sus- tainability; and the use of indicators can be useful to measure weak and strong sustainability. Indicators provide useful measurement of data, and are thus valuable as decision support tools. A decision- making method is then used to place the data measurements (or other information) into a context, such as an accounting frame- work, to inform a decision. Ideally, such a framework provides transparency on what criteria were used to make the decision. The SEEA provides both a library of decision support indicators, as well as an accounting framework to evaluate the data in the situation under study. A decision-making method is still required to use the information productively to inform a decision.
Both decision and sustainability science share an investigation of the proper role for (or balance of) a positivist, scientific process versus purposeful inclusion of subjective values into decision- making. Considered on a spectrum, the information considered can range from fully reproducible physical science to a time and place-specific opinion survey. The means to incorporate values into the decision-making process while preserving rigor constitutes the primary dimension of this review. It was not intended that this review should provide a survey of the full range of theories or methods employed in either decision or sustainability science. It provides grounding in both fields, with a particular focus on how information can be used to advance sustainability in environmental decision-making and resource management.
1.1. An introduction to decision science
Seminal works in decision science are considered to include von Neumann and Morgenstern's Theory of Games and Economic Behavior (1944), Savage's The Foundations of Statistics (1954), and Luce and Raiffa's Games and Decisions (1957). Other important works include De Groot's Optimal Statistical Decisions (1970) and Berger's Statistical decision theory and Bayesian Analysis (1985). Decision Sciences: An Integrative Perspective by Kleindorfer et al. (1993), offers a comprehensive survey of the numerous disci- plines contributing to the formation of a decision science (e.g. economics, political science, sociology). They observed that the science is focused on descriptive and prescriptive attributes of decision-making that is distinguishing between understanding how humans typically make decisions, in contrast to developing and refining rational models of choice (e.g. utility theory). The authors noted that these two areas of research are integrated,
1 http://unstats.un.org/unsd/pubs/gesgrid.asp?id¼235 Accessed 3/7/2014.
largely through the descriptive studies informing prescriptive decision-making methods.
The focus in this inquiry is less on understanding how people make decisions, and accordingly, more on the theory and methods available to make decisions (prescriptive decision-making methods). Rational Choice Theory has been the most prominent and influential approach for shaping the social sciences, which evolved from the naturalist-positivist tradition (Hausman, 2013). The fundamental theory holds that patterns of behavior develop within society that reflect individuals' choices as they maximize benefits and minimize costs (Hausman, 2013). The theory has been widely translated into predictive models, most significantly and successfully in economics to describe markets.
An Introduction to Decision Theory by Peterson (2009) is notable for the author's attention to theory, and for his philosophical grounding which is not widely found emphasized in other texts that discuss methods. Peterson observed that decision theory is commonly understood to be comprised of three largely separable topics: individual decision-making where the theory of maximizing expected utility is the dominant paradigm, game theory with its characteristic concern with concepts such as equilibrium strategies, and social-choice theory, which is largely the theme focused upon in this literature review.
A social choice decision-making method of used for addressing environmental problems that may have multiple (and sometimes competing) variables for optimization is multi attribute utility theory (MAUT). A useful survey of this approach was written by Figueira et al. (2005) in Multiple Criteria Decision Analysis: State of the Art Surveys. Because authors of this book explored various di- mensions of MAUT, the reader receives a broad understanding of issues such as decision-maker's strength of preference, judging riskiness, and additive and multiplicative forms of MAUT.
Hossein Arsham, in his web-based matrix of decision science companion sites,2 described how quantitative models can incor- porate values by positing them as quantifiable problems (e.g. sus- tainable fishery ¼ recruitment > or ¼ to harvest (þmortality). The values must be reflected in construction of the model itself. Arsham's discussions on decision science are organized on-line, searchable, and include an inventory of quantitative decision- making methods with notes on their applicability.
1.2. An introduction to sustainability science
Kates et al. (2001) and twenty-two colleagues published a policy forum piece in Science that outlined sustainability science in broad strokes as: “A new field … that seeks to understand the funda- mental character of interactions between nature and society and to encourage those interactions along more sustainable trajectories.” Seven core questions were proposed by Kates et al. to guide the study in sustainability science with an emphasis on understanding the systems complexities associated with sustainability. Sustain- ability science was presented as studying and representing the interactions, behaviors and emergent properties of natural and social systems, and providing decision-makers with improved in- formation on the effects of various forms of behaviors or in- terventions (Swart et al., 2004). Of the seven questions, two are key for this inquiry e “what are the principle tradeoffs between human well-being and the natural environment,” and “can there be meaningful limits that would provide “warning” for human- environment systems?” The other questions are second order pertaining to matters of measurement, model development,
2 http://home.ubalt.edu/ntsbarsh/business-stat/opre504.htm Accessed on 1.25.2015.
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guidance, trends and evaluation. These two questions are based upon values used to characterize human well-being, and how it is best served.
The Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS, the Academy's weekly news publication3) editorial board announced the creation of a Sustainability Sciences section in 2007 and it continues to maintain a current literature website.4 In that same year, Harvard's Initiative on Science and Technology for Sustain- ability5 ceased operation and support for a sustainability science website,6 and transferred it to the American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS).7 This hub provided a refereed source for key literature through 2011, when it ceased to update its sources. This foment of scholarship was struggling to create a sci- entific research paradigm. Bettencourt and Kaur (2011) charted the evolution of the paradigm by performing bibliographic analyses of papers written between 1974 and 2010. They compiled an extensive database of approximately 20,000 papers authored by about 37,000 authors. Bettencourt and Kaur noted that by using network analysis of co-authorship, sustainability science unified around the year 2000, with most scholars and places connected with links of authorship. They assert that the scholarship created a new field, judged by the emergence of extensive scientific collaboration.
Kates (2011), in a subsequent analysis of the field's growth and status, observed that the choice of search terms used by Betten- court and Kaur to build their publication database “is probably not equivalent to sustainability science.” None-the-less, based on Bet- tencourt and Kaur's paper, he observed that the number of articles began to grow rapidly in the 90s and had continued to double every 8 years since then. In Kates (2011) the author characterized himself as a sustainability science “insider” and indeed he was a principal driver along with William C. Clarke, in building the Harvard Initiative on Science and Technology for Sustainability. Kates and Clarke were also editors for the PNAS Sustainability Sciences sec- tion. In his 2011 paper, published in PNAS, Kates concluded that sustainability science is a “different kind of science, primarily use inspired … with significant fundamental and applied knowledge components, and commitment to moving such knowledge into societal action.” Ziegler and Ott (2011) concurred that sustainability science does not fit easily within established criteria of the quality of science. They noted that four features of sustainability scien- cednormativity, inclusion of nonscientists, urgency, and coopera- tion of natural and social scientists result in the explication and articulation of values and principles. They observe that sustain- ability science appears to “rest on shaky ground” when examined using “customary disciplinary approaches” because of the inclusion of normative consideration of values and principles.
A thorough overview was published by Kates as: Readings in Sustainability Science and Technology (2010). This reader is comprised of three parts. Part 1 is an overview of the dual goals of sustainable developmentdthe promotion of human development and well-being while protecting the earth's life support systems. It concludes with discussion of the interactions of human society and Earth's life support systems. Part 2 covered the emerging science and technology of sustainability. Part 3 discussed the innovative
3 http://www.pnas.org Accessed 7/27/2014. 4 http://sustainability.pnas.org/Accessed 2/28/2014. 5 The ISTS It was initiated in 2001 to help channel perspectives to the 2002 World
Summit on Sustainable Development (WSSD) and hosted a series of followeup activities during the five years after WSSD. The ISTS was based in the Harvard Kennedy School's Sustainability Science Program. The Program continues to sup- ports initiatives in policy-relevant research, teaching, and outreach.
6 http://sustainabilityscience.org/document.html Accessed 2/28/2014. 7 http://www.aaas.org/page/about-center-science-technology-and-sustainability
Accessed 7/27/2014.
solutions and challenges of moving sustainability science into ac- tion. The reader is provided a guided tour through the sustainability literature with links to 93 articles or book chapters. The readings on the science and technology of sustainability focus on its utility for managing human-environment systems, and the goal of integrated, value-driven understanding. The “science of identifying and analyzing values and attitudes” is particularly relevant to the focus of this author's review. Readings on the linking of knowledge sys- tems and action to address three critical needs: poverty, climate change, and peace and security round out Kate's reader, providing both a solid scientific treatment and a principled orientation to the sustainability challenge.
2. Methods
A selected review of decision science and sustainability science literature was undertaken to identify key issues relevant to sus- tainability decision making. Elsevier identified decision science among its headings for journals in the area of social science. Forty- two journals were listed under this heading, and range in scope from number theory to special applications in transportation management.8 The review was focused on key words, initially “sustainability” and “decision science”, and introduced other terms as key concepts became illuminated, including “values”, “methods”, and “rational choice theory”.
The rigorous and transparent incorporation of values into sus- tainability decision-making was prioritized based on its relevance for sustainability, and the dispute it engenders in the field of de- cision science. Secondary topics important for elucidating the pri- mary theme of values in sustainability decision making were then prioritized for inclusion into the outline. A narrative describing how systematic methods for anchoring judgment in values can be incorporated into sustainability decision-making with rigor and transparency was created by weaving together elucidation of key concepts and the use of an example.
3. Empirical, normative and other approaches to decision- making
3.1. Positivism and scientific method
The basic premise in all decisions is that the best information available, under the circumstances, was employed to deliberate and resolve the problem or choice. There are philosophically different approaches to decision-making within which different types of information may be available or preferred. The strict positivist position is that the scientific method allows science to grow through a process of hypotheses followed by statements of testable empirical predictions and experiments that either support or refute them.9 Karl Popper in his influential publication “Conjectures and Refutations. The Growth of Scientific Knowledge” (1963) described a process of conjectures and refutations that lies at the core of the scientific method. A proposition is only scientific if it is possible to test and disprove it. Much of decision science and particularly that relying on quantitative analyses fit into that positivist tradition.
In A General View of Positivism, Comte and Bridges (1865) established a hierarchy of sciences based upon the degree to which the phenomena can be exactly measured and described. Mathematics is the metric employed to determine the position of every science in the hierarchy. Thus, it is the degree to which a
8 https://www.elsevier.com/social-sciences/decision-sciences/journals Accessed 2/24/14.
9 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Positivism Accessed 1/28/15.
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science can be subjected to mathematical demonstration that it's “positivity” is ranked. Today, Comte's philosophy is the foundation of our current scientific approach for understanding the relation- ships between theory, practice, and comprehension of the world. His emphasis on a quantitative, mathematical basis for decision- making is the foundation of quantitative statistical analysis, and decision science (Lodahl and Gordon, 1972). Many view this tech- nical rationality as the highest form of knowledge, and place great faith in science and the importance of leaving decisions to experts (Miller, 1993).
3.2. Normative science
Championing normative science is Thomas Kuhn, who in his book, The Structure of Scientific Revolutions (1962) describes the social structure of science as one of scientific communities that are constituted by a shared faith in a paradigm. The brief introduction to sustainability science, in section 1.1, most assuredly fits that description (although Kates (2011) disagreed, stating a preference for “post-paradigm”). Paradigms offer theory articulation, empirical experimentation, and measurement units; and thereby, provide a framework for deciding what scientific work is worth performing. Paradigms are structured by an ontological understanding of con- cepts, and a belief that the paradigm provides insight into some basic reality. In Kuhn's view, scientific claims are adopted and rejected according to criteria that stem from the paradigm itself. A normative science becomes established through scientific litera- ture, which leads to basic axioms, concepts, and mindsets, as well as to conferences and peer-reviewed journals that make it possible to assure the quality of research done within the scientific com- munity. Kuhn emphasized that positivist science is essentially shaped through the social processes occurring through its adher- ents, and thus becomes normative by virtue of being defined through a lens of values and principles (Ziegler and Ott, 2011). Sustainability science and decision science both comfortably reside within this system. Sustainability (or sustainable development) essentially defines a set of normative values for the evaluation of decision options. That evaluation can be more or less positivistic.
3.3. Quantitative vs. qualitative methods
In examining decision-making methods, it is useful to include a brief treatment of the concept of “hard and soft science”. Science has been characterized as on a continuum from hard to soft, with the hardest employing a more rigorous scientific method, and supported by quantifiable data and mathematical models, accuracy and objectivity (Lemons, 1996). According to Popper (1963) hard science methods favor testable predictions that can be tested in controlled experiments. In contrast, soft sciences either do not possess that feature, or their predictions have a higher degree of uncertainty. The origins of this distinction can be traced to Auguste Comte's positivist philosophy of science. Interestingly, Comte's grand project was to apply the principles of positivism to what he viewed as the most complex of sciences, sociology (a term attrib- uted to him in many sources); and in contrast to the physical and natural sciences, is considered by some a soft science.
The social sciences have seen substantive quantitative research contributions. Economics, in particular, has evolved from a highly qualitative and philosophical “political economy” to a science largely dominated by quantitative descriptions. However, the extent to which this has succeeded in a functional set of theories to accurately describe and predict economic activity has been challenged (Daly, 1996). Development of the social sciences fol- lowed a naturalistic model in America, seeking to emulate methods used in the natural sciences to understand causality and
predict outcomes (Ross, 1992). This was accentuated by the emergence of behavioralism in the mid-20th century, with its emphasis on predictive causal models to explain political behavior (Caterino and Schram, 2006). This is significant to this author's discussion because of the fault line between decision methods that incorporate non-quantified or subjective information, and those that do not.
In their introduction to Making Political Science Matter, Caterino and Schram (2006) provided a lucid description of the positivist enterprise that arose from naturalism, and what they referred to as the pluralism of post-positivism, which led to a variety of inter- pretive approaches to the social sciences (e.g. Critical Theory, Her- meneutics, Post-structuralism). The pluralism they wrote about referred primarily to scientific methods; but they noted that the social sciences remain “constrained by” positivist hegemony. Nonetheless, social science is still widely considered to be soft science (within the framework of the hard sciences at least); and it is reasonable to state that economics, despite its quantitative analytical rigor is several steps removed from the hard sciences of physics and chemistry in its predictive capability. Quantification works reliably in deterministic systems, and has been proven to be valuable in characterizing social systems, but its methods have not been found to be capable of achieving the same reliable degree of predictive ability as demonstrated in the physical (i.e. “hard”) sci- ences (e.g. physics, chemistry).
Return to Reason by Toulmin (2001) described the enchantment of western thought with “universal rationality”. Universal ratio- nality was held as the gold standard for objective knowledge of truth. Schram and Caterino (2006) discussed Toulmin's description of universal rationality by underscoring that there was an idea that a distinctive scientific method existed that all sciences should share, and that all other forms of knowledge were inferior to the degree that they failed to conform to the dictates of the scientific method. Social scientists sought to emulate the precision and mathematical rigor of the physical scientists e “Physics envy morphed into science envy” Schram and Caterino (2006). Toulmin's main point was that epistemological theory in the social sciences was decontextualized from experience and observations, and was abstracted in increasingly mathematical terms such that its utility and fit for purpose were often challenged. He asserted that different sorts of knowledge should emphasize different ways of knowing. He held that between absolutism and relativism lay “reasonable- ness” as a methodology for understanding and using information. Importantly, Toulmin's prescription was for a social theory based upon practice.
3.4. Episteme, techne and phronesis
The distinctions between hard and soft science were first identified in the literature by Aristotle, not as such, but in terms of knowledge types rather than a hierarchy of quantitative rigor. In the Nicomachean Ethics, Aristotle described three approaches to knowledge and named them episteme, techne and phronesis. Epis- teme most closely approximated facts derived scientifically. Aris- totle likened episteme to what we describe as empirical science, arguing that it was based on observations and was useful to explain why things are as they appear. It can be loosely associated with theory insofar as the concept was tied to the notion that episteme existed with or without our conscious attention to it. Techne, in contrast, was characterized as a productive state, associated with the art of craftsmanship or technology; the practice of an art being the study of how to bring something into being. This can be interpreted to mean the introduction a more subjective under- standing of knowledge through practice or contextual under- standing (Dunne,1997). In Making Social Science Matter (2001) Bent
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Flyvbjerg explained that whereas episteme concerns theoretical “know why,” techne denotes technical “know how.” Whereas know why unvarying, use of the knowledge, or know how, can vary by culture, introducing a normative feature into knowledge.
Aristotle observed that we might grasp the nature of phronesis if we consider the sort of people we call prudent. A prudent per- son is able to deliberate correctly about what action is good and advantageous … but does not deliberate about things that are invariable (episteme). They may deliberate about how to do something (techne), but whether to do it becomes a decision about action. Ultimately, the decision maker must decide if the outcome is good e and who/what benefits; and this is based upon value judgment. The distinguishing quality of phronesis is a reasoned decision about action with regard to whether the outcome is thought to be advantageous (Aristotle considered that this quality belongs to those who understand the management of households or states). Flyvbjerg (2001) characterized phronesis as emphasizing practical knowledge and practical ethics in a reasoned deliberation about values with reference to praxis. For this reason, the concept of phronesis is of particular interest and consequential for this inquiry.
The physical sciences have been highly successful in establishing scientific laws, and in so doing created a scientific standard embodied in the scientific method. Social scientists have tried to mimic them with varying success, as expressed in Comte's notion of scientific hierarchy and the deprecating concept of soft sciences. Because phronesis explicitly introduces values into judgment it is highly subjective. In a scientific culture that values objectivity as the virtual end in itself, subjective science is heavily discounted as subverting episteme with highly normative prescriptions, and losing sight of the prize e immutable scientific laws. As Ziegler and Ott (2011) observe, sustainability science, thus, does not fit easily within the established criteria for quality science. Put simply, our scientific culture has a bias against the incorporation of values in sustainability science.
On occasion the dispute over the value of data collected using qualitative methods, much less methods informed by a value proposition breaks the surface. The most famous example of this in recent times was the Socol hoax10 (B�erub�e, 2011), which was a major battle in what was referred to as the science wars (Brown, 2001). The “wars” were consequential because they contributed to shaping our beliefs in what information is valid for decision- making. The wars also helped to explicate and refine our under- standing of what information is appropriate for what types of decisions.
One of the most radical and important outcomes from the sci- ence wars was the publication of Bent Flyvbjerg's Making Social Science Matter: Why Social Inquiry Fails and How It Can Succeed (2001). Flyvbjerg was critical of social science's pursuit of episteme (in contrast to Comte, who expected sociology to follow the quantitative methods of the physical sciences). Similar to Toulmin (2001), he asserted that sociology's pursuit of episteme is not its strongest means to advance, and that phronesis is the proper model for social science scholarship. Flyvbjerg argued that to be relevant, social science must inform praxis and that this should be under- taken with a focus on values. This is important because of the relevance of values to sustainability decision-making, which is discussed in section 4.3.
It is useful to recall that sustainability (and thus sustainability science) is widely acknowledged as incorporating three principle areas of inquiry, and seeking to integrate them into a praxis for decision-making: ecology, economics and social welfare
10 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sokal_affair Accessed on 1/29/15.
(Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, 2005). In each of these areas of inquiry the objectivity of the science may be challenged, and both economics and social welfare are strongly normative, each with competing paradigms predicated on different philosophical understanding (e.g. “welfare” vs. “laissez-faire” economics). Ecol- ogy, rooted in the natural sciences, is still none-the-less widely viewed as normative due to the conservation bias in prescriptions drawn from the study of structure and function (de Laplante et al., 2011).
The principal objective for phronetic social science is to formulate problems and to conduct analyses that incorporate a range of methods that are both informed and motivated by values in society and aimed at social action e for which decision-making is implicit. Among the core questions identified for sustainability science by Kates (2011) are:
� “How can society most effectively guide or manage human environment systems toward a sustainability transition?”
� “What are the principal tradeoffs between human well-being and the natural environment?”
These areas of inquiry are problem driven, value laden, and focused on social action that require suitable decision-making methods capable of incorporating the decision support informa- tion being generated. Phronetic decision-making methods are the most compelling, as is clearly implied by these sustainability sci- ence core questions.
4. Decision making methods and approaches
4.1. Wicked and tame problems
An important contribution to understanding the proper appli- cation of positivist reasoning for decision-making or other more subjective (or value directed) strategies was provided in the liter- ature on wicked problems. Rittel and Webber (1973) coined the term to describe a particular sort of problem that they described with ten characteristics, the first being the most consequential: “There is no definitive formulation of a wicked problem.” An important dimension of this is recognition that multiple stake- holders may bring different perspectives on the nature of the problem informed by different values. The authors contrast wicked problems with those considered “tame.” Tame problems, such as mathematics or optimization problems lend themselves well to techniques such as those widely practiced in quantitative ap- proaches to decision science.
Wicked problems are typical of the sort of problems associated with sustainability decision-making. Take for example Kate's formulation: “What are the principal tradeoffs between human well-being and the natural environment?” Many indicators have been identified to provide a scientific bases for human well-being, but their selection entails social policy and are likely to be con- tested, because in a pluralistic society there is no incontestable public good, and no objective definition of equity. Moreover, soci- eties vary through time and space, and so at the very least a normative approach to such a problem, grounded within a social context, would be necessary. Understanding that problems of this nature, wicked problems, may require non-quantitative methods is helpful as a criterion for considering preferred decision-making methods and thus the type of decision-making likely to occur. Recognizing the continuum of hard to soft, quantitative to quali- tative decision-making calculus, and how to apply it constructively to decision-making is an area of needed inquiry for sustainability scientists.
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4.2. A risk assessment case study of decision-making
Risk management, built upon risk assessment is a common type of decision-making. An air pollution risk management case study is presented to illustrate how a problem can be misunderstood as tame, leading to a problematic outcome; but successfully resolved once its wicked qualities are properly understood. As is clarified in subsequent paragraphs, even the tame problems can be difficult, beginning with setting an ambient air pollution standard for par- ticulate matter.
This author uses a U.S. example of criteria air pollutant regula- tion for particulate matter (PM) pollution by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). The law, process, current science and risk characterization for the regulation of PM are to be found in two EPA publications:
1. Integrated Science Assessment for Particulate Matter (U.S. EPA, 2009)
2. Quantitative Health Risk Assessment for Particulate Matter (U.S. EPA, 2010)
In this context, a decision to list criteria air pollutants for regulation is made by the EPA Administrator when they may reasonably be anticipated to endanger public health and welfare. EPA's listing and regulation of criteria air pollutants is required by the U.S. Clean Air Act, and the pollutants are collectively referred to as the National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS). Their status is updated every five years (U.S. EPA, 2009). Particulate matter is among the six NAAQS. The EPA prepares the Integrated Science Assessment for Particulate Matter assembling all relevant information, including health effects, ambient air concentrations, exposure data, exposure pathways and mode of action. Then these data are organized into a Quantitative Human Health Risk Assess- ment. The risk assessment provides estimates of premature mor- tality and/or selected morbidity associated with levels of PM (both 10 ug/m3 and 2.5 ug/m3), consideration of susceptible populations; and provides insights into the distribution of risks and patterns of risk reductions and the variability and uncertainties in those risk estimates (U.S. EPA, 2010).
The risk assessment strongly relies on quantitative data to make a determination of what levels of PM are acceptable to protect public health, which will in turn drive the regulation of PM sources (U.S. EPA, 2009). The process is straight forward, because it relies on health science data, and provides hard, quantified in- formation to support the EPA Administrator's decision. None-the- less the data must be interpreted in context and scientists may disagree with the final determination, as EPA's Clean Air Scientific Advisory Committee (established under statute11) has on occasion (U.S. EPA, 2010). Regardless, a scientifically based decision is argued and then made using a method prescribed by law. Currently, the annual primary standard (averaged over three years) for PM2.5 is 12 ug/m
3 (U.S. EPA, 2014a). A decision of this kind that is defined by law, is explicitly based upon best available science, and which relies entirely on empirical data derived through strict adherence to the scientific method (with only a minimum of normative context) e is on a continuum of wicked to tame decisions, a very tame problem.
11 The Clean Air Scientific Advisory Committee (CASAC) was established under section 109(d) (2) of the Clean Air Act (CAA) (42 U.S.C. 7409) as an independent scientific advisory committee. CASAC provides advice, information and recom- mendations on the scientific and technical aspects of air quality criteria and NAAQS under sections 108 and 109 of the CAA. The CASAC is a Federal advisory committee chartered under the Federal Advisory Committee Act (FACA).
The means for compelling compliance with NAAQS is beyond the scope of this review (but may be explored on the EPA web- site12). EPA provides a Menu of Control Measures to assist states and metropolitan areas in meeting compliance goals; and how optimal control measures are selected is the next step in this pro- cess. A metropolitan area seeking to comply with the NAAQS PM2.5 standard may consult the EPA's Menu of Control Measures to assess options for a decision for how to manage PM2.5 in their jurisdiction/ s (U.S. EPA, 2014b). From this and other sources a jurisdiction pre- pares a State Implementation Plan that either demonstrates compliance or shows steps designed to achieve compliance with the NAAQS standards.
Presume for discussion purposes, a jurisdiction of the U.S. that is not in compliance with the PM2.5 standard, is the home to in- dustries emitting PM2.5 from electricity production, ferrous metal production, cement production and vehicular transportation. To achieve compliance the jurisdiction must prevent the release of X tons of PM2.5 annually. This decision is an optimization problem with economic parameters. The decision must select control mea- sures that will limit emissions to the set level. Optimization results from the set of control measures that succeeds in meeting the set level at the lowest e or “optimal” price. This is also a tame problem. The Menu of Control Measures and other sources provide data on the costs of pollution control equipment, and its effectiveness. The formula to optimize PM2.5 reductions is to meet the standard at minimum cost, and to maximize reductions in those industries that provide the greatest cost-effectiveness. This is a tame problem because the value to be protected, or optimized, is established by law in the form of an ambient air standard for a specified pollutant; and the means to achieve compliance with that standard is a menu of options for which prices are known. With all factors known and the solution established by law this is a tame, deterministic problem.
Decisions of this kind have simple decision-making rules, and a best answer. They are entirely fit for standard quantitative risk assessment methods. A good overview and easy read on the use of risk assessment for decision-making is the book authored by Charles Yo: the Primer on Risk Analysis: Decision Making Under Uncertainty (2011a). This book has a solid treatment of risk assessment as a tool for decision-makers. It is especially valuable because of its focus on uncertainty e a fundamental tenet of risk assessment, but a pretty standard part of decision-making in gen- eral. Professor Yo also published a more rigorous treatment of risk assessment in the book, Principles of Risk Analysis: Decision Making Under Uncertainty (2011b).
Our air problem can be made more complex if other variables or criteria are introduced, such as industrial profitability, subsidies, potential loss/gain of jobs, or vulnerable populations. Then the model for the problem would become multivariate. However, it would not change the suitability of quantification for identifying the best answer. The use of multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) is a structured approach to such problems that has been adopted widely. In Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis: Environmental Applica- tions and Case Studies, Linkov and Moberg (2012) provided a very understandable treatment of the subject with applied examples of the methods employed. The book contains important references useful to comprehend this quantitative approach to decision- making and includes step-by-step examples of how this method can be used.
Risk management problems, illustrated by our PM2.5 example are typically “by the book” calculations, but they can turn wicked.
12 http://www.epa.gov/oar/urbanair/sipstatus/overview.html Accessed March 7, 2014.
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Green and Berkes (2011, 2013) described a community's experience with carbon black PM2.5 pollution. Initially the issue was investi- gated by the state environmental agency as a straight-forward risk assessment. The data within the established analytical context were insufficient to resolve the problem to the community's satisfaction. Essentially, the community held a different view of the issue than the state agency's statutory culture. Unsatisfied with the state's response, the community pursued legal means to change the decision context in order to resolve their complaint. Civil courts routinely deal with competing values leading to a choice of decision outcomes. While legal reasoning is typically constrained by law and precedent, in the cases where different values drive competing interests the problem is one of the wicked variety.
In Ponka City, Oklahoma citizens lodged 726 complaints con- cerning a fine black dust between 1993 and 2011. Largely attributed to a carbon black plant, the community e including the local gov- ernment, sought an appropriate control action from the state Department of Environmental Quality (DEQ). The DEQ investigated, seeking evidence of fugitive PM emissions crossing the property line from the suspected facility. In the absence of such evidence, nearly all the cases ended inconclusively. Unsatisfied with the DEQ's response, various plaintiffs brought four lawsuits between 2005 and 2009, which alleged PM pollution from the plant was in violation of permits and resulted in settlements of over $20M. Reportedly, the PM “dust” in Ponca was subsequently reduced (Green and Berkes, 2011, 2013).
Residents pointed to the sizable settlements as having driven the PM abatement. The residents maintained that paltry state fines of $25,437, and required “environmental improvements” of $127,631 levied by DEQ since 1995 e had no effect. Following the successful legal intervention by Ponka City the OK DEQ changed its policy on fugitive dust “from having to see it cross the property line,” as DEQ spokeswoman McElhaney put it, “to if there is clear evidence of fugitive dust crossing the property line, such as dust on cars.” In this example reliance on data and quantitative methods was insufficient to achieve a decision agreed to by all stakeholders, with the result being legal action by the aggrieved parties (Green and Berkes, 2011, 2013). This is an example of a wicked problem where stakeholders held differing perceptions of the issue. A de- cision amidst circumstances where there is not an agreed upon problem definition make effective use of quantitative methods difficult simply because parties to the decision disagree on the relevance of the information.
4.3. Using qualitative methods for decision-making
In such instances as the Ponka City example, non-quantitative decision-making methods can offer both insights and strategies for resolution that quantitative methods cannot (Rittel and Webber 1973). Disagreement on the nature of the problem is not an un- common occurrence in risk assessments characterized by scientific “expert” assessors conducting assessments using objective analysis methods in communities with strong but often unstated value preferences. Bryan Norton in his 2005 book titled Sustainability: A Philosophy of Adaptive Ecosystem Management, discussed the con- sequences of decision-making predicated on value-neutral problem formulation and analysis, and contrasted that with the advantages of careful incorporation of values into the decision-making process.
Norton noted that the risk assessment e risk management (RA/ RM) model developed by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (US EPA) for environmental decision-making (beginning in the 1980s) arose from the positivist tradition that best answers should be derived scientifically and objectively. He characterized early EPA risk assessors as guided by science, independent of values or policy predilections, and they were purposely segregated from the
decision-makers to ensure unbiased, objective science. The author described the process of law and policy that evolved alongside RA/ RM as effectively detached from ecological science, as it was effectively focused on single chemical pollutants targeting single human receptors. He argued that the “serial” approach to first exploring the science in isolation from a value context, followed by piece-meal interpretation through environmental laws, frag- mented by differing media, obscured system level ecological functions. Ecological functions are critical dimensions of sustain- ability (Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, 2005), and thus, the problem identified by Norton offers insight to sustainability deci- sion-making.
In The role of analytical science in natural resource decision- making, Miller (1993) made the same assertions as Norton, citing “a continuing debate about the proper role of analytical (positivist) science in natural resource decision-making.” Miller recognized that certain kinds of problems, to which he referred to as wicked, or “trans-science,” problems, might not be amenable to the stan- dard scientific method analytical processes. He argued that mistaken application of analytical methods to wicked problems might serve to “hinder policy development.” He advocated a more “holistic” approach to the problem by balancing empirical infor- mation with professional judgment, intuition and a broader problem context. To illustrate the idea of a broader problem context, Miller posed pollution as conventionally viewed to be a waste management problem. Within a broader context, however, the pollution could be addressed as a production process problem, and rather than waste management, the solution could be waste prevention. This insight also formed the basis for Miller's argu- ment for systems thinking as an important element in the holistic approach to sustainability.
In Environmental Modelling, Software and Decision Support: State of the art and New Perspectives, edited by Jakeman et al. (2008), the editors appear to have internalized the argument for holism. They asserted that integrated assessment is a holistic method within which to examine issues and to inform decisions. Integrated Assessment was described as pulling on expertise from multiple disciplines to understand complex systems of interest and iden- tifying options for decision-makers. Features included a trans- parent, iterative, and adaptive process open to stakeholders. The method is designed to inform decisions about complex societal problems that arise from the interactions between humans and the environment. Integrated assessment is about understanding the system of interest and assessing options for decision-making about what to do, where, when and with whom (Jakeman and Letcher, 2003). Jakeman et al. (2008) observed that the sustain- ability of one system may compromise that of others, and that there will always be tradeoffs and policies across different sectors that need to be integrated. They proposed sustainability as the context within which to frame problems for integrated assessment.
Norton (2005) observed that the movement away from dog- matic scientific objectivism toward integration of context into analysis, a position also advanced in Jakeman et al. (2008), and Winterfeldt and Edwards (1986), represent an important advance. Norton asserted that Winterfeldt and Edwards were instrumental in building a connection between the descriptive empirical work of behavioralists with the “formal and theoretical” work of decision scientists. Similarly, Jakeman et al. (2008) actively sought to inte- grate value based positions of stakeholders with modeling rigor. Norton underscored that the National Research Council's (NRC) 2005 report, Decision-making for the Environment: Social and Behavioral Science Research Priorities, provided the direction for effective environmental decision-making. The NRC panel observed that Risk characterization was the outcome of an analytic-
13 The journal of the Society of Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry (SETAC) http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/journal/10.1002/(ISSN)1551-3793 Accessed on 3/12/14.
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deliberative process. Its success depends critically on systematic analysis that is appropriate to the problem, responds to the needs of the interested and affected parties, and addresses uncertainties of importance to the decision-maker. Analysis and deliberation are complementary approaches to gaining knowledge about the world, forming understandings on the basis of knowledge, and reaching agreement among people. Analysis uses rigorous, replicable methods, evaluated under the agreed upon protocols of an authoritative discipline such as the natural, social, or decision sci- ences, as well as mathematics, and logic to provide factual answers. Deliberation is a process for communication and collective consideration of issues and answers. Participants discuss, exchange views, and reflect upon information in the effort to persuade one another (NRC, 2005).
In Risk management frameworks for human health and environ- mental risks Jardine et al. (2003) provided a comprehensive analytical review of the risk assessment, risk communication, and risk management approaches currently being undertaken by various North American and international agencies. “The informa- tion acquired for review was used to identify the differences, commonalities, strengths, and weaknesses among the various ap- proaches, and to identify elements that should be included in an effective, current, and comprehensive approach applicable to environmental, human health and occupational health risks.” Among inventories of best practices is a list of ten principles to guide risk management decision-making. It is significant that the authors stated, without reservation, that “the principles are based on fundamental ethical principles and values.” Further, they observed that the application of the principles “requires flexibility and practical judgment.” One of the principles (identified as the Golden Rule) is to “Impose no more risk than you would tolerate yourself.” These statements are notable for the close similarity to the concept of phronesis whereby, decisions are made based on judgments informed by values and an ethical orientation to the outcome.
Deliberative tools to complement analysis are many. Mental maps are described as useful in understanding participants' cognitive value structure (Linkov, 2008). Scenario development is also a well-established strategy for exploring shared and different understanding of prospective outcome options from a decision. Scenario analysis, including new participatory and problem- oriented approaches provides is a tool for integrating knowledge, and internalizing human choice into sustainability science (Swart et al., 2004). These methods provide sustainability decision- makers a means to examine conceivable outcomes for social sys- tems as they interact with ecosystems under conditions of uncer- tainty and complexity.
Decision support tools, risk assessment, environmental impact assessments and the full complement of data collection and anal- ysis in support of decision-making are appropriately tied to the decision-making process itself. Selection of the analytical tools, just as definition of the problem, will bracket the information available to the decision-maker for the options presented. In revisiting rec- ommendations for environmental and human health risk assess- ment, the NRC (2005) proposed that risk managers and risk assessors should work together closely to initiate the assessment to better enable the assessor to provide the manager with information targeted to the decisions to be made. This is considered, by some, to be a departure from earlier recommendations that the assessment should be carefully segregated from risk managers who might seek to steer the assessment in support of a preferred outcome (Norton, 2005).
Increasingly, authors of recent literature on this topic acknowledge that decisions cannot be divorced from the formula- tion of the problem and the choice of analytical tools, and also
recognition of the importance of stakeholder values. The Journal of Integrated Environmental Assessment and Management13 has functioned to integrate domain-specific knowledge in ecological risk assessment to support decision-making with multi-criteria analysis methods for trade-offs among sociopolitical, environ- mental, ecological, and economic factors. The ultimate purpose of modeling is to inform the process of making good decisions. Barton et al. (2012) asserted that models should promote social learning, that is learning that helps managers and decision-makers pull together stakeholders to support decisions that, without the benefit of models, might seem unacceptable. Journal authors call for models that allow environmental and resource managers to consider social values in decision-making and how to promote social learning by requiring stakeholders to articulate their values (Barton et al., 2012). In Bayesian networks in environmental and resource management, Barton et al. provided an overview of a special series on probabilistic modeling, and discussed advances in the last decade in the use of BNs as applied to environmental and resource management. Bayesian networks (BNs) are models that graphically and probabilistically represent relationships among variables (Barton et al., 2012). As a highly mathematical model that has been harnessed to explore and explain social variables with value foundations, BNs represent state-of-the-art in the integration of rigorous scientific methods with expressed value-based objectives.
For those who would explicitly seek to incorporate phronesis into their decisions, and to use the process to drive sustainable outcomes there is action research. Action research proponents make no claims to objectivity, and differ in their methods from other theoretical approaches primarily because the institution and or people studied have some degree of control over the design and methodology of the research (Kathryn and Anderson, 2005). In their guide to the action research Herr and Anderson highlighted the active quality of the research by noting that through engage- ment with the studied population(s) a shared exploration of both thesis and method occurs in connection with mutually agreed upon objectives. Action research is responsive to assertions by scholars such as Habermas that knowledge and human interests are inseparable, and who emphasized the social nature of all experi- ence and action (Habermas, 1971). The action researcher seeks to forge closer bonds between knowledge generation and knowledge application (read: “decisions”), bypassing the traditional academic separation between research and application, discounting neutrality and objectivity in formulation of the research thesis and methods. “Action research is therefore, an inherently valueeladen activity, usually practiced by scholar-practitioners who care deeply about making a positive change in the world.” (Reason and Bradbury, 2001). This is also consistent with the strategies for phronetic social science espoused by Fryvbjerg. Proponents of ac- tion research characterize their methods as appropriate to the sit- uations and circumstances they study, and argue that positivistic methods are poorly suited to their work. Practitioners of action research have sought to establish recognized methods of scholar- ship and quality measures to create a core of standardized schol- arship (Reason and Bradbury, 2001).
The value of information (VoI) is a decision analytic method for quantifying the potential benefit of additional information in the face of uncertainty (Keisler et al., 2014). A decision-maker might consider use of VoI if available information does not provide a persuasive direction, and there is a question whether additional information e that comes with a cost, can be expected to be worth
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the effort of obtaining it. VOI analyses can provide useful insights in risk management and other similarly deliberative decisions. VoI is not widely used because of the complexity in modeling and solving VOI problems, with most applications currently being made in environmental health risk management (Yakota and Thompson, 2004). The technique is highly quantitative and can be resource intensive (Hoomans et al., 2012). The complexity of solving VOI problems with continuous probability distributions as inputs has emerged as the main barrier to greater use of VOI (Yakota and Thompson, 2004). The comprehensive review of methods for modeling and solving VOI problems for applications related to environmental health by Yakota et al. provided the first synthesis of VOI methodological advances for environmental health. Their in- sights provided decision scientists with guidance on how to structure and to solve VOI problems focused on environmental health decisions.
In Systematizing the Use of Value of Information Analysis in Prioritizing Systematic Reviews, the authors at the U.S. Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality (Hoomans et al., 2012) reported on newer approaches to VOI that are less burdensome. One, the minimal modeling approach to VOI is useful when data on comprehensive outcome measures, such as quality-adjusted life- years or net benefit, are already available from existing research. VOI can then be estimated without constructing a complex model.
Decision oversight is important to mention, although it is largely beyond the scope of this paper. In the book Scientific knowledge, controversy, and public decision-making, Martin and Richards (1995) explored decisions made (and unmade) in public controversy analysis. Decisions between choices concerning a sustainable outcome can result in public disagreements among scientific and technical experts. Martin and Richards describe four distinctive approaches to controversy analysis, labeled as: 1. Positivist, 2. Constructivist, 3. Group politics, and 4. Social structural. The essence of the positivist approach is that the social scientist accepts the orthodox scientific view and proceeds to analyze the issue from that standpoint. In contrast, the constructivists challenge the pos- itivist's approach by seeking to explain adherence to all scientific beliefs on both sides of the controversy, whether they're perceived to be rational or irrational, or successful or failed. The construc- tivists' approach has opened up the content of disputed scientific knowledge to sociological analysis. The group politics approach concentrates on the activities of various groups, such as govern- mental bodies, corporations, and citizens' organizations, and is essentially the study of the social controversy, with only passing attention to the scientific issues. Arie Rip argued that controversies provide societies with an informal means of technology assessment that is often superior to any of the institutionalized methods of assessing the risks and benefits of new technologies (Rip, 1987). These methods might be of use to the sustainability decision-maker embroiled real-time in a protracted public controversy or seeking to draw insights for optimal decision outcomes from other similar circumstances.
One book stands out for addressing concerns over what role is appropriate for normative science and values in decision-making. The book is titled: Structured Decision-making: A Practical Guide to Environmental Management Choices by Gregory et al. (2012). The authors observed that decision science as applied to environmental decision-making is moving beyond the debate of the positivist- naturalist scientific method vs. normative value-informed social science. The authors outlined the “Structured Decision Making” approach to developing environmental management decisions. It is a guide to a process for helping stakeholders and decision-makers think through tough multidimensional choices characterized by uncertainty, diversity in opinions and values, and the need for
tradeoffs. Thus, it is largely transferable to sustainability decisions, which have been similarly characterized (Kates, 2011).
Structured decision-making is designed to be rigorous, defen- sible, transparent and inclusive. It combines analytical methods drawn from decision sciences and applied ecology with delibera- tive methods from cognitive psychology and facilitation. Case studies are used to illustrate how structured decision-making was applied to a wide range of situations, ranging from those where there was only a small amount of data, to those where there were large quantities of information.
5. Discussion
Efficient and effective decision-making begins with a clear and unambiguous statement of the problem requiring resolution (Kleindorfer et al., 1993). Articulating the correct problem is chal- lenging because what is typically identified as the problem will often be an element of a larger system of which the problem is only a characteristic, condition, symptom or element. Sustainability expressly addresses this through a planning and assessment pro- cess that scopes the linkages between issues and relevance to the initial problem statement in an effort to establish logical bound- aries on the problem to both include relevant elements but also to keep it tractable. The final problem definition and scoping includes preliminary options for the analysis, stakeholder involvement, and identification of opportunities for collaboration (NRC, 2011). Decision-making methods are only as good as the characterization of the problem to which they are applied.
Jakeman et al. (2008) proposed that data on indicators of sus- tainability are valid for supporting good decision-making. If the problem for which a decision is required is grounded in the systems context of sustainability, the analysis in support of the decision is appropriately drawn from the tool box of assessment tools, and the decision method appropriate for the analytical findings, then the decision-makers are as well-equipped as possible to make their decisions.
Decision support tools discussed in this inquiry included a limited set of well-known approaches including Structured Decision-making, Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis, Risk Assess- ment, Bayesian Networks and Action Research. There are many other methods this author has not touched such as material flow analysis, life cycle analysis, benefit-cost analysis or environmental footprint. These tools are considered important sustainability de- cision support tools, and many are discussed in the context of informing sustainability in EPA's Sustainability Analytics: Assess- ment Tools & Approaches (U.S. EPA, 2013). Aristotle would have termed these tools “techne.” Instances where decision-makers rely on the analysis provided by decision support tools e without any further reliance on a framework or other decision-making method simply demonstrate that some decisions can be relatively easily made. Sustainability decisions as discussed previously tend toward greater complexity and thus a decision framework or method can be helpful for integrating results from multiple decision support tools.
Investigations of the tools used for sustainability decision- making were conducted on supply chain management. A sizable literature has been published over the last 15 years on the topic of green or sustainable forward supply chain management. Decision making on supply chain typically balances risks against desirable factors (Seuring, 2013). Seuring and Müller (2008) conducted a literature review on sustainable supply chain management that examined 191 papers published from 1994 to 2007. It characterized initiating factors for decision making as either supplier manage- ment for risks and performance, or supply chain management for sustainable products. Seuring (2013) summarizes research on
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quantitative models and determined that on the environmental side, life-cycle assessment based approaches and impact criteria dominate. Equilibrium models, multi-criteria decision making and analytical hierarchy are three dominant modeling approaches. He reported the social side of sustainability is generally not taken into account. Brandenburg et al. (2014) report that a content analysis of 134 carefully identified papers on quantitative models that address supply chain sustainability showed most favored multiple criteria decision making methods such as the analytical hierarchy process, the analytical network process, and life cycle analysis.
The supply chain research highlights that quantitative models easily lend themselves to the incorporation of data reflecting sus- tainable values. The conclusion that environmental sustainability appeared more often in the analysis than did social welfare is indicative of the degree to which different values can be reflected in choice of data. This demonstrates that phronetic reasoning is in evidence not only in the final decision-making phase of problem solving, but also throughout the design and analysis of the problem.
An important interpretation and assignment of phronetic reasoning was presented by Funtowicz and Ravetz (1991) in A New Scientific Methodology for Global Environmental Issues. They described postenormal science (PNS), as having the characteristics of uncertain facts; disputed values; high stakes and urgent de- cisions. They argued that PNS was needed to guide society-scaled decisions when uncertainty and disagreement created a road- block (or grid-lock) for traditional science, and suggested a pro- cess to advance decisions under such circumstances. Stakeholders are construed to be the “extended peer community.” The discussion process among the stakeholders introduces “extended facts,” including local knowledge (teche). Funtowicz and Ravetz argued that this extended discussion process is necessary for improving the quality of applied science. The features of PNS are consistent with other methods discussed previously.
A political case for PNS has also been made that is germane to a thorough understanding of the decision-making dominion of sus- tainability. According to Hulme (2007), the limits of normal science to inform decisions are reached once scientific “knowledge” in- teracts with other ways people understand and make decisions, such as politics, ethics and spirituality. Hulme stated that “scientific knowledge is always provisional knowledge, and that it can be modified through its interaction with society.” To appreciate the value of this insight one must consider that a “normal” reading of science presumes science will first find truth, then it will persuade the social nexus of power, and then finally policy consistent with the science will be developed and implemented. Hulme observed that most scientists function on this level of objective process, as if the battle of science, once won, assures the war of values will be won. However, when science turns “postenormal” disputes “focus as often on the process of sciences dwho gets funded, who eval- uates quality, who has the ear of policy makers das on the facts of science” (Hulme, 2007). This is probably an accurate description of most efforts to use science to inform and advance a socioeconomic agenda such as sustainability. Thus, an understanding of post- enormal science decision-making is valuable to those who seek to understand and influence sustainability decision-making.
Emblematic of the difficulty in resolving sustainability de- cisions, and the requirement for judgment (phronesis), is the classic debate between weak and strong sustainability paths. Eric Neu- mayer in Weak Versus Strong Sustainability: Exploring the Limits of Two Opposing Paradigms (2013) opined that the central debate on sustainable development is the question of whether natural capital can be substituted by other forms of capital e termed “weak sustainability.”
Proponents of strong sustainability regard natural capital as non-substitutable. Neumayer wrote: “It will be argued here that
both paradigms are non-falsifiable under scientific standards. Therefore, there can be no unambiguous support for either weak sustainability or strong sustainability.” Neumayer invoked Popper's seminal contribution to the philosophy of science (1963): a prop- osition is only scientific if it is possible [to test] to disprove. How- ever, he also described weak and strong sustainability as paradigms e that is, according to Kuhn (1962) a normative science where claims are adopted and rejected according to criteria that stem from the paradigm itself. If, as Neumayer asserted, weak and strong sustainability are “paradigms” they cannot be refuted through research arising out of their own normative science. As Ziegler and Ott (2011) observed: “Paradigms are not falsifiable according to Kuhn's rich account of the history of science and arguably also for conceptual reasons (for example, the holism of paradigms makes it unclear what would have to be rejected if an experiment is to be falsified).” Neumayer stated at the end of his discussion: “the contest between Weak and Strong cannot be settled by theoretical inquiry. Nor can it be settled by empirical inquiry.”
Such decisions depend heavily on the reasoned judgment of the decision-maker, as well as on the circumstances in which the de- cision must be made. This is the distinctive freedom of sustain- ability science and decision-making, as well as the greatest challenge/responsibility to applying decision-making methods. Because the value of what is to be sustained is weighed on the subjective scale of the decision-maker/s, positivist decision-making methods cannot fully inform the decision because they eschew values, as such.
6. Conclusions
Sustainability decisions are contextual, value laden, and focused on social actions. The evaluation of a decision must also provide a means to value outcomes. Decision-making methods that provide a transparent means to integrate disparate information and percep- tions (and values), and outcomes have been demonstrated to be the most useful in settings with a variety of stakeholders that value different outcomes. Such conditions are typical in natural resource and sustainability problems where trade-offs are often necessi- tated. The act of decision-making, in the terminology of Aristotle, is “techne,” and it is very much a craft executed with subjective judgment by any practitioner. Consistent with development of a craft is recognition that the practitioner is guided by internalized values e normative and paradigmatic, mathematical or otherwise. The concept of phronesis is appropriate to describe this, and is also consistent with sustainability decision-making because it carries the essential element of value-based judgment that is key to resolving the tradeoffs that are often needed when considering complex systems. With the identification of values transparently included in decision making, it follows that the values served by outcomes will be similarly transparent.
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- Incorporating values into sustainability decision-making
- 1. Introduction
- 1.1. An introduction to decision science
- 1.2. An introduction to sustainability science
- 2. Methods
- 3. Empirical, normative and other approaches to decision-making
- 3.1. Positivism and scientific method
- 3.2. Normative science
- 3.3. Quantitative vs. qualitative methods
- 3.4. Episteme, techne and phronesis
- 4. Decision making methods and approaches
- 4.1. Wicked and tame problems
- 4.2. A risk assessment case study of decision-making
- 4.3. Using qualitative methods for decision-making
- 5. Discussion
- 6. Conclusions
- References
Mandatory Assignment Resources/Thoughts on Leadership - How Important is Decision-Making.pdf
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Thoughts on Leadership: How Important is Decision-Making?
by Moya K. Mason
Many people talk about the decline of the work ethic. In reality, it is not the work ethic which has declined. Rather, it is leaders who
have failed. Leaders have failed to instill vision, meaning, and trust in their followers. They have failed to empower them. Regardless of
whether we're looking at organizations, government agencies, institutions, or small enterprises, the key and pivotal factor needed
to enhance human resources is leadership.Warren Bennis and Burt Nanus, 1985
Introduction
Throughout history, the world has seen many good leaders who possessed a variety of attributes that made them great. One only has to think of such people as Ghandi, Alexander the Great, and Prince Llywelyn of Wales. It would be nice to think that we all have something of the right stuff to make a difference in the workplace or in the world. As the Chinese philosopher Lao-tsu said,
To lead people, walk beside them . . . As for the best leaders, the people do not notice their existence. The next best, the people honor and praise. The next, the people fear; and the next, the people hate . . . When the best leader's work is done the people say, "We did it ourselves!"
Many Leaders Use Five Key Skills:
1. The ability to accept people as they are, not as you would like them to be. 2. The capacity to approach relationships and problems in terms of the present rather than the
past. 3. The ability to treat those who are close to you with the same courteous attention that you
extend to strangers and casual acquaintances. 4. The ability to trust others, even if the risk seems great. 5. The ability to do without constant approval and recognition from others.
And so it goes that different people lead differently, but there is a set of attributes that most good leaders share, and includes an ability to organize; a desire to succeed; to bring forth a shared vision; drive and determination; problem-solving ability; and the all-important decision-making ability. What would Alexander the Great have been without this attribute?
The object of this essay is to get management to begin thinking or rethinking their ideas concerning one aspect of leadership: the decision-making process. As managers, we are also leaders, who must have a
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sense of vision for the future, an orientation toward action, and a facility for persuasion -- we must be able to motivate our colleagues into action within a healthy and happy work environment, and part of that must come from a projection of decisiveness. As Michael Novak points out in Executives Must Be AIlowed to Execute:
Money managers are learning the hard way that their bread is buttered by corporate managers with vision, steadiness, talent, and guts - in short, with what used to be called "the right stuff". That means character, wedded to a precise talent, a talent for figuring out the right thing to do and for doing it the right way and at the right time (Novak 1997,22).
Or as Sal Marino says, there are many people who think and plan in organizations, but very few who have the ability to move cognitive processes into executable phases (Marino 1998,26). Isn't that the difference between mediocre managers and leaders? The ability to make decisions in a systematic way by following a model, and being aware of the stakeholders in every scenario is part of the process. What are some of the skills needed to become a good decision-maker? And how can we build upon those skills to become better leaders?
Skills of a Good Decision-Maker
I think the first and most important component of decision-making is self- confidence. If you are confident in your mental capabilities and how you envision the world around you, then you will have no problem in analyzing a situation and making a decision you can stand by for better or worse. That leads into the second element, the ability to be analytical. The value of analysis cannot be overstated because it allows a person to systematically break down a situation and see its individual parts for what they are, thereby, providing a thorough overview. Thirdly, a major part of decision-making is the ability to think critically. The great value of critical thought can be traced all the way back to the philosopher Socrates (b.399 B.C.) of Athens, who advocated that critical thought and self-reflection are major components of what it is to be human.
Finally, the last two attributes of being a decisive person are understanding the value of research and the ability to manage conflict, within yourself and your belief structure, and with and amongst others. One must be able to 'nip things in the bud' before they grow and turn into invaluable and possibly destructive forces within the workplace. All these components make up decisive behaviour techniques and flow out of an overall orientation toward action, and an assumption of risk. These components do encourage individual development through self-awareness, as well as skill acquisition and improved competence.
To clarify, this writer is not advocating that managers must take responsibility for everything going on in the workplace, and it is okay to "decentralize decision- making and rely on decision teams rather than solely on ourselves" (Novak 1997,24). However, this focuses on the different kinds of decisions required by organizations; who should be involved; and how to make the best decision in a complex situation. Regardless of team support, when all is said and done, we must be the ones who step up to the platform and make things happen.
Talking about his book The Leadership Engine, Noel M. Tichy says that good leadership is a lot like good parenting; both need the systematic investment of time and what he calls "a teachable point of view" (HRFocus Jan. 1998,5). He insists that you must have the edge to make the important yes/no decisions: the edge or the courage. Courage is the missing link that puts the concept of taking risks and having the guts to be decisive into play and transforms them into a reality, often, in the face of great opposition.
How to Put it All Together
Possessing the right set of attributes and having the courage to make a decision, does not mean the work is all done. You should have your own decision-making process which must take the communication network, the staff, and the stakeholders into consideration. There must be a set of steps to incorporate the
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above elements into a process. Of course, this can be tailored differently for each scenario, but it might work something like this: Research a situation thoroughly -- analyze all the components -- think of all the people who will be effected by your decision -- think everything through using innovative and strategic thought processes -- have the self-confidence to make a short or long term decision and the fortitude to stand by it -- communicate it to the staff -- and have the ability to overcome the conflict that may arise from the decision. Never forget evaluation.
For example, it could be that after many in-depth meetings and evaluative analyzes by decision teams, there is still no consensus, no judgement made about whether or not the library should continue to collect a multitude of government documents in paper form even though the latest and most-up-to-date information can be found at the government websites posted on the Internet. One must think about the implications for the library in terms of additional workstations needed to handle the barrage of inquiries if the print sources were phased out; the possibility that computer hardware can fail; and the interminable worry that websites are not static, but rather, forever fluctuating or lost in the sea of electronic bits and bytes. In addition, there is the consideration of how this move would effect the library budget allocated for acquisitions in the government documents section, and what message you are giving to the public concerning the direction the library's policy on collection development is taking.
In addition, what of the stakeholders involved? Is the staff able to navigate the Internet -- how quickly can they navigate around the millions of documents, broken links, and the reality of slow modems? Perhaps they will need training to help them get used to the system; but who will pay for it? What about the most important stakeholders in the scenario, the public? Will they be able to function without help from a staff member? We cannot and should not assume that everyone knows how to use computers or have even heard of the Internet. Still, these people may be in desperate need of the government information located on sites. How will they access it? Will they receive training? Who will pay for it? Many more questions can come to mind, but the point is, no decision is an easy one, yet, someone has to have the fortitude to decide definitively about certain things, and live with the decisions.
The Myths of Leadership
Leadership is a rare skill. Nothing can be further from the truth. While great leaders may be rare, everyone has leadership potential. More important, people may be leaders in one organization and have quite ordinary roles in another. The truth is, leadership opportunities are plentiful and within reach of most people.
Leaders are born, not made. Don't believe it. The truth is, major capacities and competencies of leadership can be learned. We are all educatable, if the basic desire to learn is there. This is not to suggest that it is easy to be a leader. There is no simple formula, no rigorous science, no cookbook that leads inexorably to successful leadership. Instead, it is a deeply human process, full of trial and error, victories and defeats, timing and happenstance, intuition, and insight.
Leaders are charismatic. Some are, most are not. Charisma is the result of effective leadership, not the other way around. Those who are good at it are granted a certain amount of respect and even awe by their followers, which increases the bond of attraction between them.
Leadership exists only at the top of an organization. In fact, the larger the organization, the more leadership roles it is likely to have.
Leaders control, direct, prod, and manipulate. This is perhaps the most damaging myth of all. Leadership is not so much the exercise of power itself as the empowerment of others. Leaders are able to translate intentions into reality by aligning the energies to the organization behind an attractive goal. Leaders lead by pulling rather than pushing; by
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inspiring rather than ordering; by enabling people to use their own initiative and experiences rather than by denying or constraining their experiences and actions.
Conclusion
We can build upon these skills by first being consciously aware of the steps we travel through on our quest for the right solutions to both short and long term problems or situations. There is also the possibility of putting together workshops to learn the concepts, experience the components that make up the process, and even practice some of them in experimental scenarios based on making decisions. And of course, facilitation of a mentorship program geared towards the development of new leaders, is a great use of an organization's time. All of these will bring us a lot closer to our personal desire of becoming powerful, insightful leaders of the future. How important is decision-making? I will let the reader be the judge of that.
Related Papers
Library Management Meeting Prototype What is a Learning Organization?
Debate Over Coaching and Mentoring in Today's Workplace
Bibliography
HRfocus. January 1998. Interview: Revving up to Lead. Marino, Sal. January 19, 1998. The Challenge of Change. IW.
Novak, Michael. Fall 1997. Executives Must Be Allowed to Execute. Directors & Boards.
Copyright © 2018 Moya K. Mason, All Rights Reserved Back to: Resume and More Papers
Mandatory Assignment Resources/Using Big Data for analytics and decision support.pdf
Using ‘Big Data’ for analytics and decision support
Daniel J. Power*
Department of Management, University of Northern Iowa, Cedar Falls, IA, USA
(Received 19 September 2013; accepted 21 January 2014)
People and the computers they use are generating large amounts of varied data. The phenomenon of capturing and trying to use all of the semi-structured and unstruc- tured data has been called by vendors and bloggers ‘Big Data’. Organisations can capture and store data of many types from almost any source, but capturing and storing data only adds value when it has a useful purpose. Big Data must be used to provide input to analytics and decision support capabilities if it is to create real value for organisations. Some bloggers, industry leaders and academics have become disillusioned by the term Big Data. It is a marketing term and not a techni- cal term. More descriptive terms like unstructured data, process data and machine data are more useful for information technology (IT) professionals. Researchers need to study and document use cases that explain how specific, novel data, so-called Big Data, can be used to support decision-making.
Keywords: Analytics; Big Data; decision support; machine data
1. Introduction
‘Big Data’ is a colourful phrase for a significant change in data capture, storage and retrieval. Each day, every one of us generates very large amounts of digital data. We send and receive email, visit Web sites and make online purchases, use tools like Go- ogle Docs, make phone calls, upload photos to Facebook, use Google Search, chat with friends, take our cars for service, work out at a gym on a machine with an Internet con- nection, pay bills online; and our utilities, Internet and cable usage are digitally moni- tored and captured. This data and much more from our activity is recorded and often backed up in the computing cloud. Now we can capture, store and perhaps analyse the data incidental to personal and organisation activities and actions. Also, extensive machine-generated data can be stored and analysed. Organisations now have very large data sets stored in many files and databases.
A Google search for the phrase ‘Big Data’ in April 2013 returned about 17,700,000 results with ads from SAS, Intel and EMC about Big Data. On the first page of results, the McKinsey & Company link is to a 2011 report titled ‘Big data: The next frontier for innovation, competition, and productivity’. When the search is narrowed to the phrase ‘define “Big Data”’ there are about 2,680,000 results with the same three ads. The phrase ‘What is big data’ returns about 24,100,000 results. Big Data has attracted extensive interest and created high expectations for positive outcomes.
This article examines the usefulness of the term ‘Big Data’ and more broadly exam- ines the enormous potential for using the expanding data that can now be captured and
*Email: [email protected]
© 2014 Taylor & Francis
Journal of Decision Systems, 2014 Vol. 23, No. 2, 222–228, http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/12460125.2014.888848
analysed. The following section reviews the definition of ‘Big Data’ used in the popu- lar media, and the increasing scepticism about the term in the practitioner community. The next section briefly discusses analysis of these new data sources, possible use cases for new and novel data, and the need to operationalize ‘Big Data’ for research pur- poses. The concluding section explores the role of information systems researchers in studying the ‘Big Data’ phenomenon.
2. Big Data definition
In general, it is difficult to empirically study what one cannot clearly define. From a decision support system perspective, it is also important to define and understand tech- nologies used to build systems. Provost and Fawcett (2013) define Big Data as ‘data- sets that are too large for traditional data-processing systems and that therefore require new technologies’ with names like Hadoop, Hbase, MapReduce, MongoDB or Couch- DB. Ehrenberg (2012) notes that when he first used the term ‘big data’ in lower case in 2009 to label a new ventures fund, the term ‘implied tools for managing large amounts of data and applications for extracting value from that data’. Cloudera Chief Executive Officer (CEO) Mike Olson describes Big Data as complex data at volume, but he admits to not really liking the term Big Data (see Scoble interview, 2010).
Machine data is a major contributor to the ‘Big Data’ revolution. Machine data is all of the data generated by a computing machine while it operates. Examples of machine data include application logs, clickstream data, sensor data and Web access logs (cf., Power, 2013b). The O’Reilly Radar definition of Big Data is a situation where the size of the data itself becomes part of the problem. According to Cooper and Mell (2012), ‘Big data is where the data volume, acquisition velocity, or data represen- tation limits the ability to perform effective analysis using traditional relational approaches or requires the use of significant horizontal scaling for efficient processing.’
Digital data is massive. For example, an Economist magazine special report (2010) notes that Wal-Mart ‘handles more than 1 million customer transactions every hour, feeding databases estimated at more than 2.5 petabytes – the equivalent of 167 times the books in America’s Library of Congress ...’ Data comes from both new and old sources and the increased volume of data has led some vendors and industry observers to proclaim a new era of Big Data. IBM researchers (Zikopoulos et al., 2013) describe Big Data in terms of four dimensions: (1) volume, (2) velocity, (3) variety and (4) veracity. Gartner (2013) defines Big Data as ‘high-volume, high-velocity and high-vari- ety information assets that demand cost-effective, innovative forms of information pro- cessing for enhanced insight and decision-making’. Carter (2011), a researcher at International Data Corporation (IDC), asserts ‘Big Data refers to data sets whose vol- ume, variety, velocity and complexity make it impossible for current databases and architectures to store and manage’. IDC defines Big Data technologies as ‘a new gener- ation of technologies and architectures designed to extract value economically from very large volumes of a wide variety of data by enabling high-velocity capture, discov- ery, and/or analysis’ (cf. Carter 2011).
Based on Gartner, IDC, IBM and SAS web pages and papers, the following are the five dimensions for data that are creating new challenges for data management and analysis. The Big Data metaphor is supposedly at the extreme end of one or more of the following dimensions: (1) data volume – measures the units of data storage on vari- ous media; (2) data variety – refers to the many formats of digital data including pho- tos, email and text documents; (3) data velocity – according to Gartner, ‘means both
Journal of Decision Systems 223
how fast data is being produced and how fast the data must be processed to meet demand’; (4) data variability – according to SAS, means ‘data flows can be highly inconsistent with periodic peaks’; (5) data complexity – according to SAS, means data is from multiple sources and it is difficult and challenging to link, match, cleanse and transform data across systems (see Figure 1). Data is an expanding ‘box’ with multiple attributes.
Andrew Brust noted in a March 2012 post to inaugurate his Big Data blog that ‘The excitement around Big Data is huge; the mere fact that the term is capitalised implies a lot of respect’. Rust acknowledges the term is not well defined. He asserts ‘Big Data is about the technologies and practice of handling data sets so large that con- ventional database management systems cannot handle them efficiently, and sometimes cannot handle them at all’. Pundits and vendors have combined many topics and tech- nologies both new and old under the Big Data label including business intelligence and analytics.
Recently, some bloggers have become disillusioned by the term Big Data, but rea- lise the enormous potential of analysing non-traditional data sources. For example, Barry Devlin (2013) argues, ‘Big data as a technological category is becoming an increasingly meaningless name’. De Goes (2013) further asserts, ‘The phrase “big data” is now beyond completely meaningless’. Sorofman (2013) considers Big Data ‘a cute way of describing the idea of data processed at massive scale and speed, where the trail thrown off by all of our varied digital interactions and experiences becomes the fuel for decisions, insights and actions’.
3. Analysing ‘big’ data
Data is data in all its complexity. Some information technology vendors regularly over- promote technology opportunities, and that has happened with Big Data and analytics. Some managers quickly get disillusioned, and that is happening with the ambiguous concept of Big Data. Venture capitalist Bryce Roberts (2012) reminds us ‘Data, big, medium or small, has no value in and of itself. The value of data is unlocked through context and presentation’.
Figure 1. Data dimensions.
224 D.J. Power
Managers need to understand what to do with new data sources, and few managers want to blindly hire high-salary data scientists to work magic and find new strategic insights. Managers want to understand what a data scientist will do and why someone is needed in that role. Managers also seem reluctant to purchase more expensive hard- ware and software to store data that may not be useful. Big Data is not necessarily needed, or better data. Aziza (2013) in his critique notes, ‘we need a different and more mainstream way to think about Big Data’.
Information technology educators need to help prepare data analysts and scientists who have the skills of a database designer, software programmer, statistician and story- teller. Davenport and Patil (2012) describe the job of a data scientist in more detail. In general, we can prepare three major types of analyses with these new data sources and data manipulation technologies (see Power, 2013a):
(1) Retrospective data analyses – using historical data and quantitative tools to understand patterns and results to make inferences about the future. This is the area of business intelligence.
(2) Predictive data analyses – using simulation models to generate scenarios based on historical data to understand the future. Predictive means ‘looking forward’ and making known in advance.
(3) Prescriptive data analyses – using planned, quantitative analyses of real-time data that may trigger events. Prescriptive analyses recommend actions.
Academic information technology researchers need to define concepts to study them meaningfully and to communicate results. Rigorous research starts with operationalizing concepts. Operationalizing a concept, construct or variable means identifying a valid, quantifiable measure. That is not possible with an amorphous term like ‘Big Data’. Information systems researchers can study ‘Big Data’ as a social phenomenon, but not in terms of systems design, adoption or other constructs.
A major ongoing challenge for decision support and information technology researchers is identifying use cases and user examples related to analysing large vol- umes of semi- and unstructured data. It is important to document what data was used and how it was collected and analysed for decision support.
The SAS (2013) website briefly identifies nine possible uses of ‘Big Data’ with appropriate analytics: (1) analyse millions of shop-keeping units (SKUs) to determine optimal prices that maximise profit and clear inventory, (2) recalculate entire risk port- folios in minutes and understand future possibilities to mitigate risk, (3) mine customer data for insights that drive new strategies for customer acquisition, retention, campaign optimization and next-best offers, (4) quickly identify customers who matter the most, (5) generate retail coupons at the point of sale based on the customer’s current and past purchases, ensuring a higher redemption rate, (6) send tailored recommendations to mobile devices when customers are in the right location to take advantage of offers, (7) analyse data from social media to detect new market trends and changes in demand, (8) use clickstream analysis and data mining to detect fraudulent behaviour and (9) determine root causes of failures, issues and defects by investigating user sessions, net- work logs and machine sensors. Many more use cases certainly can be identified and documenting them is especially important. What data is used and how is it used? Those are important questions for managers and researchers.
Journal of Decision Systems 225
4. Conclusions
Data is important and a significant technology change has occurred. In March 2012, IDC released a ‘worldwide Big Data technology and services forecast showing the mar- ket is expected to grow from $3.2 billion in 2010 to $16.9 billion in 2015’. Aziza, Ehrenberg, and Franks (2013), Morris (2012) and others argue that the potential of ‘Big Data’ for improving our personal lives, and helping businesses compete and gov- ernments provide services, is unbounded. According to Ehrenberg (2012), ‘Greater access to data and the technologies for managing and analyzing data are changing the world.’ Somehow ‘Big Data’ will lead to better health, better teachers and improved education, and better decision-making. Researchers need to study these claims and identify what data needs to be used and how to analyse it to make the claims a reality.
Also, information systems and decision support researchers need to study the imple- mentation of evolving technologies like Hadoop, investigate more use cases and inves- tigate the claims made for using new data sources and new technologies. The advent of new data sources and new processing technologies might indeed lead to beneficial out- comes, but we need to demonstrate that the desired outcome is occurring and that unin- tended negative consequences are not occurring. For example, there are growing concerns about the misuse of Big Data (cf., Hall, 2013).
An Economist (2010) special report cautions us about misanalysis of Big Data. The report explains that
During the recent financial crisis it became clear that banks and rating agencies had been relying on models which, although they required a vast amount of information to be fed in, failed to reflect financial risk in the real world. This was the first crisis to be sparked by big data – and there will be more.
Researchers need to examine both misuse and misanalysis of novel data sources. Big Data is useful only if we use the data in analyses. The term has limited useful-
ness as a descriptive label for managers or researchers. Big Data is a marketing term and not a technical term. Descriptive terms like unstructured data, process data and machine data are more useful in practice and in research. Information technology researchers need to explore and clearly document business use cases and help prepare professionals to manage and analyse a wide array of data. Database skills with both tra- ditional and newer technologies are especially important to many organisations. The term Big Data seems increasingly meaningless and the expectations for decision sup- port with Big Data may be too high, but extensive digital data can be captured and analysed, and in many companies there likely exist uses that justify the expense.
Analysing new data sources is possible and might be helpful, but beware of the hyperbole. Colourful terms like ‘Big Data’ create excitement and interest in a practical research area, but they can distract us from meaningful scientific inquiry by confusing a marketing term with a technical or scientific term.
We are creating a data-driven global society (Power, 2013d), but the implications for society, individuals and businesses are not well understood. A preliminary assess- ment suggests new data sources, new processing technologies and new analyses will provide more and better decision support and analytics for individuals, managers and other decision-makers. New data sources can help managers better understand trends and customer needs and opinions. Overall, the impact on decision-making of increasing volumes of more complex, higher-variety and more variable data often available in real-time should increase in the future.
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Acknowledgements The author thanks the anonymous reviewers and Professors Dale Cyphert and Rex Karsten for their comments. This article incorporates material from columns (Power, 2012, 2013c, 2013d) that have previously appeared in Decision Support (aka DSS) News. An earlier version of this article appeared in the Proceedings of the Eighth Midwest Association for Information Systems Conference, Normal, Illinois, May 24–25, 2013.
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