The Geopolitics of Energy and Global Climate Change

CO2 EMISSIONS FROM FUEL COMBUSTION Highlights (2014 Edition) - 9

INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY

Figure 4. Change in CO2 emissions (2011-12) MtCO2

Key point: In 2012, emissions from coal and oil in- creased in non-Annex I countries and decreased in Annex I countries.

Emissions by fuel Although coal represented 29% of the world TPES in 2012, it accounted for 44% of the global CO2 emis- sions due to its heavy carbon content per unit of en- ergy released, and to the fact that 18% of the TPES derives from carbon-neutral fuels (Figure 5). As compared to gas, coal is nearly twice as emission intensive on average.5

Figure 5. World primary energy supply and CO2 emissions: shares by fuel in 2012

Percent share

* Other includes nuclear, hydro, geothermal, solar, tide, wind, biofuels and waste.

Key point: Globally, coal combustion generates the largest share of CO2 emissions, although oil still is the largest energy source.

5. Default carbon emission factors from the Revised 1996 IPCC Guidelines: 15.3 tC/TJ for gas, 16.8 to 27.5 tC/TJ for oil products, 25.8 to 29.1 tC/TJ for primary coal products.

Those shares evolved significantly during the last decade, following ten years of rather stable relative contributions among fuels. In 2002 in fact, oil still held the largest share of emissions (41%), three per- centage points ahead of coal (Figure 6).

Figure 6. Fuel shares in global CO2 emissions

Key point: The fossil fuel mix changed significantly in the last 10 years, with coal replacing oil as the largest source of CO2 emissions.

In 2012, CO2 emissions from the combustion of coal increased by 1.3% to 13.9 GtCO2. Currently, coal fills much of the growing energy demand of those devel- oping countries (such as China and India) where en- ergy-intensive industrial production is growing rapidly and large coal reserves exist with limited re- serves of other energy sources.

Emissions by region Non-Annex I countries, collectively, represented 55% of global CO2 emissions in 2012. At the regional level, annual growth rates varied greatly: emissions growth in China (3.1%) was lower than in previous years, however, emissions grew strongly in Africa (5.6%), Asia excluding China (4.9%) and the Middle East (4.5%). Emissions in Latin America6 (4.1%) and Annex II Asia Oceania (2.5%) grew at a more moder- ate rate, while emissions decreased in Annex II North America (-3.7%), Annex II Europe (-0.5%) and Annex I EIT (-0.8%) (Figure 7). Regional differences in contributions to global emis- sions conceal even larger differences among individ- ual countries. Nearly two-thirds of global emissions for 2012 originated from just ten countries, with the shares of China (26%) and the United States (16%) far surpassing those of all others. Combined, these two countries alone produced 13.3 GtCO2. The top-10 emitting countries include five Annex I countries and five non-Annex I countries (Figure 8).

6. For the purposes of this discussion, Latin America includes non- OECD Americas and Chile.

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0

100

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Coal Oil Gas Other Total

Annex I Non-Annex I

35%

32%

44%

29%

20%

21% 18%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

CO2

TPES

Oil Coal Gas Other*

CO2CO2CO2CO2 1%

82%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2012

Coal Oil Gas