Political Science homework
RVP2021
M2PORTA-VAC--SOLUTIONlearningactivity5.xlsxActivity List
| Porta-Vac Project | ||||||
| Activity List for the PORTA-VAC Project | ||||||
| Activity | Description | Immediate Predecessor | Estimated Completion Time (weeks) | |||
| A | Develop product design | --- | 6 | Instructions: | ||
| B | Plan market research | --- | 2 | 1. Draw the PERT Diagram on a separate sheet of paper based on this Activity List. | ||
| C | Prepare routing | A | 3 | 2. Check the next sheet for a solution and compare your work! | ||
| D | Build prototype | A | 5 | |||
| E | Prepare marketing brochure | A, B | 3 | 3. Continue to the next sheet for further instructions. | ||
| F | Prepare cost estimate | C | 2 | |||
| G | Do preliminary design testing | D | 3 | |||
| H | Complete Market survey | B, E | 4 | |||
| I | Prepare pricing and forecast report | H | 2 | |||
| J | Prepare final report | F, G, I | 2 | |||
Project Flow
| Porta-Vac Project | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| Format | Example | |||||||||||||||||||||
| Earliest Start | Activity Name | Earliest Finish | Slack | 1 | Z | 3 | 3 | |||||||||||||||
| Latest Start | Activity Duration | Latest Finish | 4 | 3 | 6 | |||||||||||||||||
| 6 | C | 9 | 4 | 9 | F | 11 | 4 | 15 | J | 17 | 0 | |||||||||||
| 10 | 3 | 13 | 13 | 2 | 15 | 15 | 2 | 17 | ||||||||||||||
| 0 | A | 6 | 0 | 6 | D | 11 | 1 | 11 | G | 14 | 1 | |||||||||||
| 0 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 5 | 12 | 12 | 3 | 15 | Finish | |||||||||||||
| Start | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| 6 | E | 9 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||
| 6 | 3 | 9 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 0 | B | 2 | 4 | 9 | H | 13 | 0 | 13 | I | 15 | 0 | |||||||||||
| 4 | 2 | 6 | 9 | 4 | 13 | 13 | 2 | 15 | ||||||||||||||
| Instructions: (see class notes for more details) | Questions: | |||||||||||||||||||||
| Note: Activity Times are listed on the Activity List. | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| 1. What is the expected completion time? | 17 | |||||||||||||||||||||
| Step 1:: Insert the activity times under the activity names, "Actitivity Duration" as shown in the Format example above. | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| Step 2: Perform a forward pass -- computing the Earilest Start and Earliest Finish times. Insert these in the TOP row. | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| Step 3: Perform a backward pass -- computing the Latest Finish and Latest Start times. Insert these in the BOTTOM row. | 2. Where is the Critical Path? | A-E-H-I-J | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Step 4 Calculated the slack time for each activity. Insert this in the YELLOW box. | (describe by the series of letter for the activities on the Crtical Path) | |||||||||||||||||||||
| Step 5: Determine the Critical Path. | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| Then, proceed to the next sheet to determine the RISK of the project. |
Project Risk
| Porta-Vac Project | |||||||||||||||||||
| Instructions: | Questions: | ||||||||||||||||||
| Complete the tables below to answer the questions to the right. | 1. What is the probability that this project will be completed within the goal of 20 weeks? | 94.5% | (Note =K30 with Goal set to 20 weeks.) | ||||||||||||||||
| 2. What is the probability that this project will be completed faster, within 19 weeks? | 83.0% | (Note =K30 with Goal set to 19 weeks.) | |||||||||||||||||
| Data given by Porta-Vac Production Leaders | (see formulas and hints in green to the right) | A-E-H-I-J | A-C-F-J | A-D-G-J | B-H-I-J | ||||||||||||||
| Activity | Optimistic (a) | Most Probable (m) | Pessimistic (b) | Expected Completion Time (weeks) | Variance (weeks^2) | Slack (weeks) | On critical Path? (Yes=1 or No=blank) | Path 1 (Yes=1 or No=blank) | Path 2 (Yes=1 or No=blank) | Path 3 (Yes=1 or No=blank) | Path 4 (Yes=1 or No=blank) | ||||||||
| A | 4 | 5 | 12 | 6 | 1.78 | 0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||||||||
| B | 1 | 1.5 | 5 | 2 | 0.44 | 4.00 | 1 | ||||||||||||
| C | 2 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 0.11 | 2.00 | 1 | ||||||||||||
| D | 3 | 4 | 11 | 5 | 1.78 | 1.00 | 1 | ||||||||||||
| E | 2 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 1 | 1 | |||||||||||
| F | 1.5 | 2 | 2.5 | 2 | 0.03 | 4.00 | 1 | ||||||||||||
| G | 1.5 | 3 | 4.5 | 3 | 0.25 | 1.00 | 1 | ||||||||||||
| H | 2.5 | 3.5 | 7.5 | 4 | 0.69 | 0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||||||||
| I | 1.5 | 2 | 2.5 | 2 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||||||||
| J | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||||||
| Expected completion time= | 17 | 13 | 16 | 10 | weeks | (Hint: Try =SUMPRODUCT(Path,Expected Completion Time) | |||||||||||||
| Goal to complete = | 20 | weeks | Path variance= | 2.722 | 2.028 | 3.917 | 1.278 | weeks-squared | (Hint: Same =SUMPRODUCT as above) | ||||||||||
| Path StDev= | 1.65 | 1.42 | 1.98 | 1.13 | weeks | (Hint: take the square-root of the variance. =SQRT(x) | |||||||||||||
| z-score= | 1.818 | 4.916 | 2.021 | 8.847 | |||||||||||||||
| Probability to complete within Goal = | 96.5% | 100.0% | 97.8% | 100.0% | Note: P = NORM.S.DIST(z-score,TRUE), with TRUE to indicate Cumulative Distribution function, as Standard-Normal Distribution has a Mean=0 and StDev=1. | ||||||||||||||
| Probability to complete Critical Path on-time = | 96.5% | ||||||||||||||||||
| Probability to complete all paths by the goal = | 94.5% | Note: All tasks must be completed on time, not just the Critical Path. Therefore, P(all) = P1 * P2 * P3 * P4 | |||||||||||||||||
| Hint: Change the goal in cell D21, then paste the answers above. | |||||||||||||||||||
