615 assignment

Lesson Week 3

This week we work with data analysis. The evaluator will need to explain how data will be collected and analyzed to their stakeholders. Most of us, myself included, are not experts in math or statistics. The point of this lesson is not to make you an expert but to expose you to the simple data analysis methods available and to the terminology should you be involved in a project that requires a higher level of evaluation so you are better able to understand and judge the accuracy of the results. First, a statistic can be a number, characteristic, tool or technique. The data used can be measured by some simple central tendency characteristics. Examples of these are mode, mean and median. There are also measures of variability such as range, percentiles, standard deviation, and variance. 

For a good example of how this works in "real life" take a look at  Making Data Collection of Statewide Programs Useful . Another aspect that deserves to be mentioned is meta-analysis. This is an analysis of effect size based on the quantitative results of multiple previous studies of the same or similar interventions. Shown at this website is an  online lecture on how to conduct meta-analysis . Finally, take the time to view or listen to the  Transparency Through Technology Evaluating Federal Open Government . This will give you an idea of the importance of data and evaluation in the Federal Government.  Data.gov  offers data sets from which you can pull for evaluation purposes. 

This week we also look at surveys and sampling. In order to gather the data necessary to analyze the problem or issue, the researcher could gather data from existing sources, such as the US Census  or they could conduct their own surveys.  Other means of gathering data are interviews with key informants, focus groups, and incidence rates. Many times a sample survey will be give to a small representative group and extrapolated out to the entire population to product projections of the results on a larger audience. (think about how they determine television show ratings) At times the researcher may not be familiar with the topic or area and might conduct what is called a "snowball" sample where they as the person being interviewed to suggest others that might help. When I was interviewed by a PhD student for her research she asked if I could put her in touch with others that had the background I did. That is an example of a snowball survey. 

For our purposes here, we will concentrate on surveys and specifically the survey instruments used by the NPS for their visitor counts. 

Part Two Lesson Week Three

Data can be both qualitative (generally numeric) and quantitative (generally from observations or opinion surveys). You will also review the four levels of data: nominal (one level), ordinal (one level but ranked), interval (ranked data conveyed in equal intervals) and ration (add an absolute zero to the equation).  The Science Museum of Minnesota produces a very informative website discussing evaluation data in a clear and simple format. Take a look at their  website  and explore the links. 

In order to look at the analysis performed on the data we have looked at so far, take a look at the  NPS Visitor Use Statistics website . For this part of the lesson choose California. When you are done make sure to explore the parks in your state! Now choose the Golden Gate National Recreation Area.You will see a series of reports. Click on the Traffic Counts by location. Remember those areas where they showed the Inductive loop counter at the entrance to Lower Fort Mason? Then the amount subtracted as non-reportable? And finally the application of the multiplier from our previous lesson? Now you see the result. This is the data produced by those surveys. Now you have the data to make month-to-month comparisons as well as year-to-year. How might these stats be used? During 2015 the National Parks were asked for this information among others requests:

Consulting firm wanted assistance interpreting visitation data for a development proposal for a tribe

 

Bureau of Ocean Energy Management wanted 5 years of visitation data for some Alaska parks

 

Glacier National Park wanted to identify their 100 millionth visitor

 

A travel magazine wanted to know the ranking (by visitation) for a particular park

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Next take a look at the Annual Park Recreation Visitation Graph. Is the visual representation easier to follow? More difficult? Review the other reports. Presentation of the data is almost as important as the data itself. 

· Week Three Visitor Survey

· Following is a sample survey instrument for the Persons Per Vehicle Survey we have been discussing:

INSTRUCTIONS FOR ENTERING DATA ON THE PERSONS-PER-VEHICLE SURVEY FORM

 

<PARK NAME>

 

1.  This survey will help your park establish a person per vehicle multiplier to be used with traffic counts for estimating the number of people entering the park by vehicle. 

 

·       The surveyor conducts the survey for only one (1) hour during the sample period at each of the sample locations that is open on the day of the survey. 

 

·       If a survey time period is marked AM please conduct a one hour survey between the hours of 8:00 AM and 12:00 PM. 

 

·       If the survey time period is marked PM please conduct a one hour survey between the hours of 12:00 PM and 5:00 PM. 

 

·       The surveyor selects the AM or PM time period when he/she can safely and completely conduct one hour survey at the required location on the day listed on the accompanying survey calendar.

 

·       Please vary your start times during each AM or PM sample period.  Start times do not need to be on the hour but do need to be conducted for a one hour period.

 

2.     The surveyor fills out the bottom of the form by entering their name, the date of the survey and the time the survey begins.

 

3.     To fill out the body of the form, count the number of people in each vehicle (boats or autos) as they enter the park.  Place a tally mark in the appropriate box representing the number of persons in that vehicle.  (If there are 2 persons in a vehicle, put a tally mark in column two (2).  If there are more than 6 passengers in a vehicle, put the exact number in column 7+.

 

 

4.   At the end of each month being surveyed send the completed forms to:

 

            Name of Person to Contact

            National Park Service

            NRSS/EQD/SSB

            1201 Oakridge Drive

            Fort Collins, CO 80525

 

If you have any questions, please contact Person's name at the above address or phone 970-225-XXXX. 

Thank you for your cooperation

· Week Three Survey Tally